Huge Discrepancy Between Bookies Show Prices and Betfair Show Prices

byronbay2 · 16-03-2019 1:47am #1

Don't gamble on horses much these days (Cheltenham, Aintree, Royal Ascot, classics) but always have a few bets at Cheltenham and noticed something this year that I have not heard people discuss on here before. Obviously, Betfair is always going to offer slightly better live odds than the bookies show from the course but this year at Cheltenham it seemed to be ridiculous how short the live "show" prices were in comparison with Betfair.

I noticed it loads of times while in my local bookies with the BF app open. One example was Frodon being a BF price of 7.4 while the bookies live show was 9/2. This was literally 2 mins before the off. Similarly, Early Doors in the last race today was up on screens at 9/2 while 7.2 was freely available on BF. This happened in EVERY race I looked at. It seems that you would need to be a bit thick to be betting in a bookies on live shows coming from the course, you are being royally ripped off!

Does this happen all the time or just especially at times when the "once a year" crowd are out in force?

IAMAMORON · 16-03-2019 2:13am

I don't think there is any great conspiracy going on. At the big meetings you can get pushes on particular horses by up to 25,000 people in the space of 20 minutes. That horse Frodon is a real British favourite. When half of the crowd are swilling pints and necking their pasties and harping on about how great Bryony Frost is..... you can get a surge at the bookies, especially around the big race time. The bookies on track aren't going to hang around when this money starts rolling in. They start laying off etc, before you know it the price collapses, it happens. The fact of the matter is that the exchanges aren't reflecting what is happening trackside where the SP's are being generated.

What is surprising is how the bookies are not laying off more on the exchanges. This to me would be a stronger indicator of how they are hedging their liabilities. If they can lay a horse like Frodon at 9/2 and then back him at 6.2/1 that is a juicy mark up of circa 30%. It almost sounds to good to be true. It seems strange to me that their is so much of a difference, especially considering they make their living playing the market.

Most punters who go racing aren't getting on until 10 minutes before the race, hence the difference in the exchanges and the track price. They are not hanging around their living rooms studying price movements either, hence they aren't aware of the some of the good value available.

Theonly way · 16-03-2019 2:26am

Excellent reply to the opening poster.
However one major factor that you may have overlooked .
I want to back horse a @ 16 /1 .Try getting 50 never mind 5000 on the exchange .FKN 6 /1 .

We need bookmakers to win otherwise its just math.

Theonly way · 16-03-2019 2:37am

For me anyhow Bookies are what they are .Some take bets others just reflect what is actually related to the cash out option.
Consider the cost of a pitch @ royal ascot or chelt .They as do horsemen have to make it pay .Trading out is not an option .
Any that do wont last for sure.

IAMAMORON · 16-03-2019 2:46am

I massively agree. I was thinking an awful lot about how the exchanges are actually the real indicator of a horses chance. It is a pure market, at certain prices. But the reality is that a race horse does not know what price it is, even if the jockey does.

The bigger the race the bigger the market I would presume. To lay 500 @ 16's = 999 at 8's = 1999 at 4's = 7999 at evens right ? But you need the equity to lay the bet. Lots of it.

I would love to know the volume of the Gold Cup Antepost market with the exchanges. It would be interesting to see how much equity was genuinely involved with the best market prices for some of the favourites. I would like to examine how much influence the exchange price had on the quotes being offered by the bookies.

Theonly way · 16-03-2019 3:08am

Well there are ways of getting that info .But not posting it on here for sure.
Really what your Q is there a sure fire way of making money ????

Look at my post for dundalk yesterday.
or last week .Its a hell of alot more profitable than being a bookie. What is not there is some of the early prices with the books which I have to use .

Theonly way · 16-03-2019 3:13am

Bear in mind that those were posted well in advance of race time.

How can one do that regular = Python.

Theonly way · 16-03-2019 3:24am

Not being smart here and actually trying to help .Python is open source and a brilliant piece of software which is free to all.

Takes a little extra time to get the hang of it for the likes of me as was not brought up with computers .Horses actually. ha .

Just check it out and if its to difficult bin it.

GL

Theonly way · 16-03-2019 3:37am

Simply put its like excel vs but easy to use.

If your thing is trading just write the code .

If you get stuck I am here.So are 2million python coders.

Mostly Harmless · 16-03-2019 9:45am

Biggest point that has not been mentioned is Betfair win market does not have to account for each way terms, like for case of one that is 7.4 in Betfair win market and 9/2 with books, it would likely be something like Evens in the Betfair place market, so the 9/2 at 1/4 odds would be givng you some small edge on place side of EW bet.

The Tetrarch · 16-03-2019 10:46am

The SP % margins on yesterday's Cheltenham races:
126%; 135%; 130%; 124%; 132%; 131%; 140%

It is so long since I looked at this I have forgotten how it works.
My guess is you recover 100/126 of your stakes (first race) if you bet all horses in the first race to win an equal amount on each.

Start with 1000 euro with the bookies and after each race yesterday you recover
(1) 793 (2) 587 (3) 452 (4) 364 (5) 276 (6) 210 (7) 150

My guess with 1000 euro on Betfair at 5% commission you recover
(1) 950 (2) 902 (3) 857 (4) 814 (5) 773 (6) 735 (7) 698

Markets can be thin on Betfair, but are strong for major sporting events
My best win was at 75s on Betfair, bookies 33/1.

If you want good odds on Betfair but the market is trading at lower odds at the time put up your bet at your odds.
Over time as the market fluctuates you will probably be able to get all your bet taken.
Obviously the earlier you place your bet the more chance you have of it getting placed.

wellpastit · 16-03-2019 6:13pm

Ladbrokes had Al boom photo on their screens at 16/1 which I took. Collected today was paid sp. I had a discussion at counter girl rang head office I was told 16s was gone since 8.45. Had it out with them and they said there was a delay between their terminals and the screens.
4 hours is a bit of a stretch for a delay but they refused point blank to pay the price I took . I'll never have a bet with these shower again. It was small money in the greater scheme of things but they had price on display should be honoured.

carq · 20-03-2019 5:52pm

wellpastit wrote: »

Ladbrokes had Al boom photo on their screens at 16/1 which I took. Collected today was paid sp. I had a discussion at counter girl rang head office I was told 16s was gone since 8.45. Had it out with them and they said there was a delay between their terminals and the screens.
4 hours is a bit of a stretch for a delay but they refused point blank to pay the price I took . I'll never have a bet with these shower again. It was small money in the greater scheme of things but they had price on display should be honoured.

was it written on the docket ?

Andrew00 · 20-03-2019 5:54pm

Ladbrokes are vermin and that’s no lie

PooPooPooPoo · 20-03-2019 7:02pm

Bookies are just fixing a game that they know they can win. They are the ones who set the odds after all.

In gambling the many must lose in order that the few may win.

PhuckHugh2 · 21-03-2019 12:32pm

PooPooPooPoo wrote: »

Bookies are just fixing a game that they know they can win. They are the ones who set the odds after all.

In gambling the many must lose in order that the few may win.

This is a cop out and a lazy excuse for people.

Bookmakers set the odds. Correct. But you are not required to have a bet on something if you are not happy with the price. A point that many seem blissfully ignorant of.
Id be first to slate the bookies and granted they dont always take the bet you want which i dont really have a problem with but you have the choice not to have a bet of you dont like the price.
I doubt you would buy a car or other item if you were not happy with the price. Why would you place a bet if you dont think there is value in it?

PooPooPooPoo · 21-03-2019 2:35pm

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

This is a cop out and a lazy excuse for people.

Bookmakers set the odds. Correct. But you are not required to have a bet on something if you are not happy with the price. A point that many seem blissfully ignorant of.
it?

My good man, with respect, I am far from blissfully ignorant of how bookmakers operate, nor am I copping out but the facts are the facts. I have worked within the industry for some time but thankfully not in shops.

Here are three undisputable facts:

Fact 1) Irish gamblers are the third biggest losers in the world.

Fact 2) There is little in the way of value due to lack of liquidity in the exchanges for larger prices, with few exceptions you will struggle to get a four figure sum matched at larger odds and I am speaking from experience.

Fact 3) The house always, always wins.

You may understand more than I do how odds compilers utilise the poisson distribution in soccer markets to create baselines and how quants within the firms use statistical odds compiling and mathematical concepts to create margins. As in roulette, the odds against any single number coming up on the roulette wheel are 36-1, but casinos pay you 35-1, giving them a 2.7% buffer. Margins are margins, that's why Paddy Power has over 600 shops.

The odds are the odds, they may not be fair but barring exchanges, they are set by the firms. Often this results in situations such as the Grand National where you have a 155%-160% overround so punters often have no value but little choice if they want to have a bet.

Punters are being fleeced for the most part and the perception of value is gone. Look at Oddschecker and see how little there is by way of choice and the liquidity is larger machine markets is practically non-existent.

Aside from a select and diminishing number of HVC's who occasionally encounter a winning run, few people are making money from betting aside from the executives like Denise Coates, the CEO of Bet365, who is on a salary of £265million per year. Money that is coming from the pockets of punters who persistently buy under the odds and pay the price.

PhuckHugh2 · 21-03-2019 3:45pm

PooPooPooPoo wrote: »

My good man, with respect, I am far from blissfully ignorant of how bookmakers operate, nor am I copping out but the facts are the facts. I have worked within the industry for some time but thankfully not in shops.

Here are three undisputable facts:

Fact 1) Irish gamblers are the third biggest losers in the world.

Fact 2) There is little in the way of value due to lack of liquidity in the exchanges for larger prices, with few exceptions you will struggle to get a four figure sum matched at larger odds and I am speaking from experience.

Fact 3) The house always, always wins.

You may understand more than I do how odds compilers utilise the poisson distribution in soccer markets to create baselines and how quants within the firms use statistical odds compiling and mathematical concepts to create margins. As in roulette, the odds against any single number coming up on the roulette wheel are 36-1, but casinos pay you 35-1, giving them a 2.7% buffer. Margins are margins, that's why Paddy Power has over 600 shops.

The odds are the odds, they may not be fair but barring exchanges, they are set by the firms. Often this results in situations such as the Grand National where you have a 155%-160% overround so punters often have no value but little choice if they want to have a bet.

Punters are being fleeced for the most part and the perception of value is gone. Look at Oddschecker and see how little there is by way of choice and the liquidity is larger machine markets is practically non-existent.

Aside from a select and diminishing number of HVC's who occasionally encounter a winning run, few people are making money from betting aside from the executives like Denise Coates, the CEO of Bet365, who is on a salary of £265million per year. Money that is coming from the pockets of punters who persistently buy under the odds and pay the price.

The fact of the matter is that nobody has to strike a bet if they do not want. Nor do bookmakers have to accept a bet they dont want. Bookmakers price everything. There can and is always mistakes made.
Also i never once insinuated that the house doesn't win. I merely said that it is lazy to blame books for always setting the odds in their favor. Of course they do that is their business model. However they are not always right.

Also in reference to Denise Coates. She owns the company what would you suggest she does with the money it makes? Give it back on Justice Refunds?

People who pay under the odds on something have no one to blame but themselves.
The fact of the matter is that people will always looks for someone else to blame. Sher its always the bookies fault they are setting the price. Come off it!

I have struck numerous bad bets over the years i dont whine about it. You learn a little bit each time and try to change the approach the next time.

And back to my original point. If you dont like the price you are getting dont do the bet. Its a simple but effective method.
Last week i tried to have a modest enough bet on an extra market on one of the biggest races of the year. They offered me a reduced price on it to what they had displayed. I said it was fine and walked away with my cash. The bet won. That is how it goes. I made the correct decision in my mind. It didnt work out but i may have been right even if i was proved wrong. Thats how it goes.

And to address your other points. I have no idea if Ireland ranks third in gambling losses nor am i to bothered on that. If your not first your last!!

I also agree with your point on the exchanges being of little benefit if you are betting anything over 20-1 and want to have a good bet on away from right before the off(which isnt much good), saturdays or the odd race midweek.

I will just finish on a point i have mentioned a few times. If people are losing money then they have no right to be slating bookies in essence they are trying to relieve the bookmaker of its money so why should they be entitled to complain if the opposite happens. Money is not something that is just handed out for free.
You place a bet it is a game of your wit against that of someone else. They are likely smarter than you and they have the luxury of setting the price. You have the choice to examine the terms and either agree to it or walk away. Nobody ever lost money on the bet that they decided to not place due to unfavorable terms.

PooPooPooPoo · 21-03-2019 5:48pm

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

The fact of the matter is that nobody has to strike a bet if they do not want. Nor do bookmakers have to accept a bet they dont want. Bookmakers price everything. There can and is always mistakes made.
Also i never once insinuated that the house doesn't win. I merely said that it is lazy to blame books for always setting the odds in their favor. Of course they do that is their business model. However they are not always right.

Also in reference to Denise Coates. She owns the company what would you suggest she does with the money it makes? Give it back on Justice Refunds?

People who pay under the odds on something have no one to blame but themselves.
The fact of the matter is that people will always looks for someone else to blame. Sher its always the bookies fault they are setting the price. Come off it!

I have struck numerous bad bets over the years i dont whine about it. You learn a little bit each time and try to change the approach the next time.

And back to my original point. If you dont like the price you are getting dont do the bet. Its a simple but effective method.
Last week i tried to have a modest enough bet on an extra market on one of the biggest races of the year. They offered me a reduced price on it to what they had displayed. I said it was fine and walked away with my cash. The bet won. That is how it goes. I made the correct decision in my mind. It didnt work out but i may have been right even if i was proved wrong. Thats how it goes.

And to address your other points. I have no idea if Ireland ranks third in gambling losses nor am i to bothered on that. If your not first your last!!

I also agree with your point on the exchanges being of little benefit if you are betting anything over 20-1 and want to have a good bet on away from right before the off(which isnt much good), saturdays or the odd race midweek.

I will just finish on a point i have mentioned a few times. If people are losing money then they have no right to be slating bookies in essence they are trying to relieve the bookmaker of its money so why should they be entitled to complain if the opposite happens. Money is not something that is just handed out for free.
You place a bet it is a game of your wit against that of someone else. They are likely smarter than you and they have the luxury of setting the price. You have the choice to examine the terms and either agree to it or walk away. Nobody ever lost money on the bet that they decided to not place due to unfavorable terms.

Some very fair points raised and I would agree with your sentiments.

And if you might furnish the winner of the mares bumper in Cork today I would be ever so grateful!

wellpastit · 21-03-2019 10:32pm

was it written on the docket ?

Yeah clearly written on slip. The girl in the shop knew it was wrong but had to follow the party line. I have no issues with her but the yoke on the customer services (an oxymoron if ever I heard one) was a bitch

Huge Discrepancy Between Bookies Show Prices and Betfair Show Prices

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