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General Irish Government discussion thread [See Post 1805]

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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,194 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    MadYaker wrote: »
    Regardless of what Micheal Martin wants it’s pretty obvious in recent interviews with Stephen Donelly and other senior FF members that they have no intention of continuing the C&S agreement until next year and if it wasn’t for brexit they would have ended it already. I think there’ll be a GE this year, at least I hope so, it’s time. I just wish there was a party I actually was enthusiastic about voting for....



    Based on the last few months of polling the possibilities for government after the next election look like in order of likelihood:

    Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein
    Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein plus others (PBP, Independents)
    Fine Gael, Independent Alliance plus others (Labour, Greens etc.)
    Fine Gael with another confidence and supply
    Fine Gael and Fianna Fail coalition
    Fine Gael and Sinn Fein

    Fianna Fail will be desperate to get into government and not have to be there with FG as a larger party. They will knife MM and put someone in leadership who is open to a deal with any of the smaller parties, but they will need Sinn Fein, who have changed their policy on coalitions. If the two of them don't have enough, then they will drag in a few SF-friendly independents (PBP, Clare Daly, etc.) to make up the numbers. These two arrangements are probably on a 60% probability.

    If FG do better than the polls currently suggest, they will look to do a deal with the likes of the Independent Alliance, Labour and Greens. Only if that doesn't work will they try and do a confidence and supply arrangement with FF again, who might not want this and prefer a coalition as the smaller party.

    FG and Sinn Fein, the most unlikely bedfellows, this would also give a MM-led FF (him holding on is the only scenario that allows this) a free run at them both.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,143 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    What happened to Casey starting a new party or going in with renua etc. there is an open goal for a new non bull**** party to challenge the establishment. 20-25% of the vote there for the taking if they do it right... As is, yes, we can swap one set of morons with another to be the senior party! I’m so inspired....

    Fg had their chance. Proved beyond doubt their incompetence and populism is right up there with ff... a “new politics “etc, in hindsight, it’s comedy ...

    Anytime I’ve heard Casey he sounds like a totally uneducated moron who has no idea what he’s talking about. I’m open to having my mind changed on that one if he starts talking sense.

    Sinn Fein are economically illiterate and I want a party who will cut social welfare not increase it so I doubt I’ll vote for them. That only leaves FF and FG who I am sick of.

    I want a party who will act drastically and make sweeping changes in certain areas. I’d like to see way more power given to county and town councilors so they can deal with local issues on their own and leave the Dail to worry about the country.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,015 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    MadYaker wrote: »
    Anytime I’ve heard Casey he sounds like a totally uneducated moron who has no idea what he’s talking about. I’m open to having my mind changed on that one if he starts talking sense.

    Sinn Fein are economically illiterate and I want a party who will cut social welfare not increase it so I doubt I’ll vote for them. That only leaves FF and FG who I am sick of.

    I want a party who will act drastically and make sweeping changes in certain areas. I’d like to see way more power given to county and town councilors so they can deal with local issues on their own and leave the Dail to worry about the country.

    Yet we're happy to have Fianna Fail, who had us 'practically eating out of bins' in partnership with Fine Gael, overseeing worsening national crises. Hospital over budget much? I believe FF are the ones mostly responsible for the catastrophic financial crises we have had.

    Almost forgot this:
    Mr Varadkar said he did not believe anyone chose to be homeless and said the two main causes of family homelessness were family breakdown or a notice to quit being issued by a landlord. Neither is a choice, he said.
    “So if there are people who are making themselves homeless to skip the queue or to available of services I imagine they are very few or far between. I imagine they are exceptional cases.”
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/owen-keegan-faces-vote-calling-for-him-to-resign-1.3802806

    Good man Leo, putting this kind of crap to bed.
    ...I'll expect my medal in the post.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    MadYaker wrote: »
    Anytime I’ve heard Casey he sounds like a totally uneducated moron who has no idea what he’s talking about. I’m open to having my mind changed on that one if he starts talking sense.

    Sinn Fein are economically illiterate and I want a party who will cut social welfare not increase it so I doubt I’ll vote for them. That only leaves FF and FG who I am sick of.

    I want a party who will act drastically and make sweeping changes in certain areas. I’d like to see way more power given to county and town councilors so they can deal with local issues on their own and leave the Dail to worry about the country.

    oh I totally agree with you about casey, doesnt have much of a clue about anything he was asked BUT he would say what people felt. Now imagine someone eloquent and educated on current affairs / economics could do! On the social welfare front, unbelievably, FF in the last election or two werent hell bent on increasing JSA or JSB, that was FG doing, the same FG that claim to reward the early risers! LOL

    I am with you though, its not even enough to freeze welfare! The system needs an entire overhaul! I was watching a programme on welfare reform in the uk, watch it on channel 4, skint britain! The irony that we cant lock scumbags up, joke of a health system, joke infrastructure, 50% marginal tax rate inflicted on the working poor, but we can afford a world class welfare state :rolleyes:

    FG can do one, that snake as Taoiseach is bad enough, their lies and inaction is just the icing on the cake!

    Can I ask who you will vote for Matt?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,670 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Fine Gael, Independent Alliance plus others (Labour, Greens etc.)

    Which IA TDs do you see retaining their seats? One or two is about it. Labour exceeding 10 is unlikely, Greens exceeding 4 is unlikely (and both could well be lower than that). On others - Soc Dems to retain their 2 and get no more is probable; not really any others that could even vaguely be hauled in and a lot of the unaffiliated Independents are either going to lose their seats or wouldn't do it anyway

    I don't see 81 / 80 with an opposition CC coming from that
    Idbatterim wrote: »
    What happened to Casey starting a new party or going in with renua etc.

    Renua Are Dead. You are the only person who isn't a Renua councillor or candidate not to realise that! No amount of necromancy revive them and the Lucinda policies.

    Casey seems happy enough with his media work, is leaving it rather late for a Europe run and it he doesn't do that he's spent politically. Like Renua, he'd have severe trouble finding candidates that weren't headcases and things like him not paying tax here (due to not living here - so totally legal) would really not help when it comes to people voting for a non-symbolic role.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I hope Lucinda runs for election again. All of these idiots run on the same platform offering the exact same thing. Surely a non bull****ter would stand out so much , that they would be a shoe in ...


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,296 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    Surely a non bull****ter would stand out so much , that they would be a shoe in ...

    This suggests a complete lack of knowledge of literally all electorates throughout history. Voters don't seem to particularly want to live in the real world.

    Lucinda Creighton is also a bizarre example of a "non-bull****ter".


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Seeing as we've no specific opinion polls thread, the latest Red C:

    http://twitter.com/obraonain/status/1099352939074850817


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,194 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Seeing as we've no specific opinion polls thread, the latest Red C:

    http://twitter.com/obraonain/status/1099352939074850817


    Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein on a combined 42%, within striking distance of getting there on their own, but easily get there with support from FF gene pool independents and a few from the left fringe. If necessary, PBP or SDs to make up the numbers.

    60% chance of a FF/SF government (with possibly some small outside support) still the smart bet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein on a combined 42%, within striking distance of getting there on their own, but easily get there with support from FF gene pool independents and a few from the left fringe. If necessary, PBP or SDs to make up the numbers.

    60% chance of a FF/SF government (with possibly some small outside support) still the smart bet.

    I can't see the SDLP being too happy about a FF/SF collaboration!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,194 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    jm08 wrote: »
    I can't see the SDLP being too happy about a FF/SF collaboration!


    SDLP linking up is a Micheal Martin attempt to shore up anti-SF. When he is gone, that won't matter, and getting their hands on cabinet seats will be all that counts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 945 ✭✭✭Colonel Claptrap


    Noticing a lot of social media comments lately saying Pearse Doherty would make a great Taoiseach.

    Peculiar considering he's not the party leader.

    Is Mary Lou not liked within her own party?

    In fairness, neither is Michael Martin. But he's not a new party leader on the cusp of bringing his party into government for the first time.

    For such a disiplcined party, I'm surprised to see this within SF. Has anyone else noticed it?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein on a combined 42%, within striking distance of getting there on their own, but easily get there with support from FF gene pool independents and a few from the left fringe. If necessary, PBP or SDs to make up the numbers.

    60% chance of a FF/SF government (with possibly some small outside support) still the smart bet.

    FF won’t go into government with those animals.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭Edward M


    Noticing a lot of social media comments lately saying Pearse Doherty would make a great Taoiseach.

    Peculiar considering he's not the party leader.

    Is Mary Lou not liked within her own party?

    In fairness, neither is Michael Martin. But he's not a new party leader on the cusp of bringing his party into government for the first time.

    For such a disiplcined party, I'm surprised to see this within SF. Has anyone else noticed it?

    He is their darling mouthpiece at the minute and if you take aside the content, he is a pretty accomplished orator.
    Tbh, I don't think MLMD is convinced of her own party rhetoric and it shows when she is questioned on it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,375 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    garhjw wrote: »
    FF won’t go into government with those animals.


    FF will do whatever it takes to get into power. The real question is whether SF will actually go into Government and take some responsibility. It's so much easier to sit on the sidelines and moan about everything.

    blanch152 wrote: »
    Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein on a combined 42%, within striking distance of getting there on their own, but easily get there with support from FF gene pool independents and a few from the left fringe. If necessary, PBP or SDs to make up the numbers.

    60% chance of a FF/SF government (with possibly some small outside support) still the smart bet.


    PP is putting FG/SF as a more likely option.


    https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=ireland


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,143 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    FF hate Sinn Fein too much, maybe if Mary Lou was gone it could work. I also don’t think Sinn Fein actually want to be in government, it’s much easier to sit on the opposition benches and lambast the government of the time and call motions of no confidence in various ministers. Plus if they actually had to implement their ill thought out policies it would be a disaster. There’s a big chunk of voters who love this type of the politics, it’s the same people who are harassing Simon Harris’s family.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 320 ✭✭VonZan


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein on a combined 42%, within striking distance of getting there on their own, but easily get there with support from FF gene pool independents and a few from the left fringe. If necessary, PBP or SDs to make up the numbers.

    60% chance of a FF/SF government (with possibly some small outside support) still the smart bet.

    Very unlikely. Might be a smart bet on a numbers game but the reality is that SF will never be in a coalition with FF or FG as it's a completely toxic partnership for all parties. I think Mary Lou would find it very difficult to find the middle ground on a lot of issues considering the red lines she continually draws.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,522 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    Will the likes of Eoin O'Broin, Louise Reilly and Pearse Doherty etc etc want to see their political careers pass by without achieving a ministerial office?

    I seriously find it very hard to believe.

    Old soldiers like Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin might be happy with an unmemorable career but will the younger bunch be?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,670 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    I hope Lucinda runs for election again. All of these idiots run on the same platform offering the exact same thing. Surely a non bull****ter would stand out so much , that they would be a shoe in ...

    She didn't get in last time with a party that got 2% of the vote. She certainly won't get in alone. Her views do not match her constituency and are unlikely to ever again - when they weren't important and she had the FG logo it didn't matter, but it does now


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,375 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    I hope Lucinda runs for election again. All of these idiots run on the same platform offering the exact same thing. Surely a non bull****ter would stand out so much , that they would be a shoe in ...
    I hope she does too. It would be interesting to see her pi$$ away another €20k or so to get rejected again soundly by the electorate.



    She made her bed.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,015 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    This suggests a complete lack of knowledge of literally all electorates throughout history. Voters don't seem to particularly want to live in the real world.

    Lucinda Creighton is also a bizarre example of a "non-bull****ter".

    Is this because every government has been FF or FG heavy or not heavy enough?
    Seems to me a big problem the electorate have is blaming other parties, politicians and often an element of the tax paying public for issues they should have with the policy makers they do vote in.

    Lucinda Creighton is the epitome of old school Fine Gael IMO. We don't need that Mary Whitehouse/nosey residents association schoolmarm with power.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/ivan-yates-housebuilding-pledge-could-propel-fianna-fil-back-into-power-37870604.html

    Good article here by Ivan Yates. It’s what I have proposed before. Martin is biding his time. He may get away with luck and hoping some other fg scandal emerges or more incompetence or simply say fg have failed to deliver on rewarding work or the housing crisis. Both true and go for usc abolition over several budgets or large increase in housing output. The young and youngish hold a lot of sway. Many older people are fg or ff lifers. The welfare classes don’t vote in large numbers or are never going to fg and not many to ff... there is talk of many in ff getting impatient, hold the line. It is now clear it’s just swapping one shower of morons for the next. I think it could be a good message to fg and ff that , we don’t need to wait for you to ruin the place to vote you out. Doing “ok” simply isn’t good enough any more. Might make them up their game ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    I see The Irish Times had an article on Thurs on how the EU commission has strongly criticized the Irish govt on our housing crisis.

    The European Commission has strongly criticised the Government’s housing policy, suggesting rapidly rising rents, insufficient residential construction and a lack of affordable and social housing were driving increased rates of homelessnes in Dublin and elsewhere.

    Hardly News to most of us.......

    However in other News , the Guardian reports that Enda may have been trying to whore the country out to Facebook ref GDRP in return for jobs and investment.
    Most revealingly, it includes details of the company’s “great relationship” with Enda Kenny, the Irish prime minister, one of a number of people it describes as “friends of Facebook”. Ireland plays a key role in regulating technology companies in Europe because its data protection commissioner acts for all 28 member states. The memo has inflamed data protection advocates, who have long complained about the company’s “cosy” relationship with the Irish government.

    The memo notes Kenny’s “appreciation” for Facebook’s decision to locate its headquarters in Dublin and points out that the new proposed data protection legislation was a “threat to jobs, innovation and economic growth in Europe”. It then goes on to say that Ireland is poised to take on the presidency of the EU and therefore has the “opportunity to influence the European Data Directive decisions”. It makes the extraordinary claim that Kenny offered to use the “significant influence” of the EU presidency as a means of influencing other EU member states “even though technically Ireland is supposed to remain neutral in this role”.

    It goes on: “The prime minister committed to using their EU presidency to achieve a positive outcome on the directive.” Kenny, who resigned from office in 2017, did not respond to the Observer’s request for comment.

    John Naughton, a Cambridge academic and Observer writer who studies the democratic implications of digital technology, said the leak was “explosive” in the way it revealed the “vassalage” of the Irish state to the big tech companies. Ireland had welcomed the companies, he noted, but became “caught between a rock and a hard place”. “Its leading politicians apparently saw themselves as covert lobbyists for a data monster.”

    5215.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&

    Good lad Enda..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,015 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    So the nation looks like it's actively keeping the housing market heated to the detriment of the tax paying public. Meanwhile Enda is ensuring the cowboys in the high chair at the EU table legacy, sweet deals, nods and winks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    The whole mortuary trolley thing was pretty gruesome reading, and I see Leo has put his size nines In his gob yet again and has had to eat his words.


    'This is one I got wrong' - Taoiseach apologises for comments on Waterford mortuary controversy"


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/broadband-plan-may-breach-public-spending-code-ministers-were-warned-1.3884903

    The Department of Public Expenditure advised ministers that going ahead with the National Broadband Plan may be a breach of the public spending code, that the value for money case put forward for the project lacked credibility and that it presented a threat to the public finances.

    In written observations to a confidential cabinet memo considered by ministers yesterday, senior department officials warned that other public capital projects, including roads and social housing, would have to be postponed or cancelled to pay for the costs of the broadband plan.

    Ministers were also told that cheaper alternatives were available.

    Government need to outline their reasoning, both financial and economic, for overruling the Department of Public Expenditure on this. I think by and large that the National Broadband Plan is a positive ambitious initiative, but it can't be railroaded through at any cost. If Government fail to do this, then they have no credibility on fiscal prudence. I can accept there are reasons that the National Children's Hospital cost may have ballooned due to changes in scope and lack of information. This can't be said for this, where they're actively ignoring the financial advice publicly.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,015 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Amirani wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/broadband-plan-may-breach-public-spending-code-ministers-were-warned-1.3884903




    Government need to outline their reasoning, both financial and economic, for overruling the Department of Public Expenditure on this. I think by and large that the National Broadband Plan is a positive ambitious initiative, but it can't be railroaded through at any cost. If Government fail to do this, then they have no credibility on fiscal prudence. I can accept there are reasons that the National Children's Hospital cost may have ballooned due to changes in scope and lack of information. This can't be said for this, where they're actively ignoring the financial advice publicly.

    The fiscal prudence thing is a gimmick, part of the whole 'stability' con.
    In this case we now know ministers were aware and fore warned. Hopefully it's not too late to revisit this. Sadly I think part of the rush is due to a need to placate rural voters.
    I see Denis O'Brien in the consortium. Is there anything that man can't turn his hand to? It's like he's one of only two or three people in the world capable of carrying out FG government contract requirements. Impressive.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,626 ✭✭✭eire4


    I see The Irish Times had an article on Thurs on how the EU commission has strongly criticized the Irish govt on our housing crisis.




    Hardly News to most of us.......

    However in other News , the Guardian reports that Enda may have been trying to whore the country out to Facebook ref GDRP in return for jobs and investment.


    5215.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&

    Good lad Enda..


    And strongly rebuked the government should be. The housing crisis and homelessness crisis are a national shame and a disgrace.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,345 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Only reading the DPER submissions on this do you realise exactly how much of a mess this is.

    The original costing for the National Broadband Plan, in the National Development Plan, was "commercially sensitive".

    This has now been revealed as being €770m over 10 years. Now it's become upto €2.97bn over 10 years, which is going to require €2.3bn be taken out of other projects and departments, mainly housing, health and transport, which are already strangled by years of underinvestment and standard FG tightness.

    This and the NCH are absolute cluster****s that have gone so far out of hand it's beyond belief.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    The fiscal prudence thing is a gimmick, part of the whole 'stability' con.
    In this case we now know ministers were aware and fore warned. Hopefully it's not too late to revisit this. Sadly I think part of the rush is due to a need to placate rural voters.
    I see Denis O'Brien in the consortium. Is there anything that man can't turn his hand to? It's like he's one of only two or three people in the world capable of carrying out FG government contract requirements. Impressive.

    It's unreal.

    Michael Lowry.
    The ongoing Actavo enquiry, ref the water meter contract.
    High court orders trying to muzzle speakers in parliament.

    Now there's controversy surrounding the broadband plan (Which isn't all new news)

    What is FGs infatuations with the man?


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