Sunday 28 - Jumps/Limerick - Flat/Naas - TG4 Coverage

I feel like today could be a struggle for me. There’s not much jumps racing in Ireland this week, so I’m just looking to get a bit of fun in my day (so my usual tiny bets.) There’s some nice racing in the later races, but the bookies are well on top of it with little value anywhere. The first of the two maidens has something to go on while the second looks completely dumb. I’m not sure how they were divided into two, but it surely could have been handled better.

Limerick
1.25
Castle Town House is 2/1 as I write this. Four tips for it. Deserved favourite after coming close in many races, once behind Fierami who did well the other day (on much better ground) although I think Castle Town House might prefer heavier ground, so that could be a mark against it, not winning on ground it prefers. Blackstair Rocco pulled up in two P2Ps, has a second in one, and a poor result in a MDH. It looks like 2m4f is its distance, and heavier/softer ground its preference, but I’m not sure, if it doesn’t have any ability to make an impression in not-perfect-for-it ground it’s actually a horse that’s worth backing. The same could be said for John Adams but it’s 32l 4th at 2m4f was behind horses that have gone on to win. Whiskeywealth has a pretty decent 4th but none of the other horses looked that impressive. If you balance that with Blackstair Rocco and especially John Adams at the odds they might be more improving gambles. Of the horses making their debut Harvey’s Quay is well liked (the night before, at least) and the trainer is getting some respectable places with the horses doing well. Pragmatic (first reserve) should get in with one horse dropping out as of the 27th. One P2P where it fell but was going well, and a second where it won easily. It might be worth keeping an eye on.

John Adams ew 16/1 3 places

2.00
Champagne Sparkles is 2/1 (as of 11am) and I’m not too sure about that. On shorter distances it hasn’t been able to finish out the race, and the heavy ground is a factor it hasn’t had to deal with, especially over this distance. It’s done ok, but not great, on heavy ground in NHFs but its prices haven’t borne out in its results. Hollywood West upset its form in its last race, getting a second after showing nothing in two previous races, even with mistakes at the hurdles. This distance might be too much for it. Lifetime Ambition has almost always placed, but never won, the ground and distance should suit it, but is this its time? A strange race, especially given the first division of the Maiden hurdle. Anything that wins here, unless it wins impressively, won’t be saying much. It could very well be a case of a horse making its debut comes through.

2.35
A novice hurdle with very little to separate them. I haven’t been rating Denise Foster/GE’s horses recently, they seem to have tailed off and be there second or third tier of racers. I liked Zanavi in another race, but it pulled out. I’m not sure it has the ability to compete here after tailing off in another race over 2m on heavy ground, but it is carrying the lowest weight. Mr Coldstone was second last in a Grade 1, but wasn’t completely embarrassed on the distance it lost by, it just didn’t have the ability to keep up. Heather Rocco has a drop in trip but won well at 2m5f on similar ground. That’ll Be The Day is relatively unexposed but has one good win in a maiden at 2m on the similar ground. For me it’s Mr Coldstone that needs to be beaten, but I can’t decide between Zanavi with bottom weight, or That’ll Be The Day that still has the ability to show potential, albeit from top weight. I think I have to go with Zanavi after my instincts had it in another race it was withdrawn from.

Zanavi 7/2

3.10
A horrendous race, between Felicidad who’s been raced in higher prized races and not been amazing (but not terrible either) and Yukon Lil who’s been poor in chases but could take this easily. The other horses competing for third have shown absolutely nothing. It could be fun to watch, but it won’t be fun to bet on.

3.45
My Manekineko has a recent win, but for me it pulled that one out of the bag rather than showed absolute class. Given it’s an old horse it might have just decided to go for it, and I’m not sure it can repeat it. Joeswayornoway had a very good win the other day on soft ground that looked stickier than the going would indicate. It’s a heavy favourite in this and has proven it can get a bit of speed at the end to clear past the rest. Irregularheartbeat needs to find a bit more, especially finishing out the race, but if it can grind Joeswayornoway down, after beating it to second in another race, it might have enough. My head is telling me Joeswayornoway, but the 3/1 odds are calling me to Irregularheartbeat, especially as I think it can drift with my BOG.

Irregularheartbeat 3/1

4.20
A fascinating 3m chase. We have one horse coming back from 2m4f at Cheltenham where it came fourth in Chatham Street Lad. A 3 miler today could be gearing it up for next season with a bit of testing of the waters. Defi Bleu has a 3m1f race heavy ground that was an easy win, but this is a different beast, and at 8yo it’s not in GE’s top horses. Full Time Score has never run 3m but it’s HDB and at 7yo and lightly raced, doing well in those, it might be about time to gear it up for more. Chatham Street Lad is hard to be against but just a bit shorter than evens it’s hard to bet on too. Full Time Score at just around 2/1 is more value with the potential of the trainer, and Defi Bleu has actually proven itself at the distance.

Full Time Score 15/8

4.55
A 2m3f chase on heavy ground with some horses that have proven themselves in different ways to the race today. Glorious Getaway has been decent in much longer trips, even at much bigger stakes, but if the pace is set today there has to be a doubt at its 2/1 price that it does it. It has the class, but it’s a big adjustment to make. Tiger Voice has been raced as a 5yo on similar distances, and a year might add to its ability, but it’s never actually got there. This might be its chance. With a lot of humming and hawwing Velocity Boy might be able to lead out to make something of the race, but at 12 yo and back after a break it’s a question of does it have the willpower. Midnight Maestro might be the one to upset, but at 4/1 the bookies have it well covered and you’re only going to get your money back on an ew, which seems about right for its chances, at least in bookie logic.

Midnight Maestro 4/1

John Adams had an awful start. Looked completely surprised by it and never got going. Disaster of a bet.

Edit: Horrific race. Faller at the last fence. Favourite well beaten then goes on to win it with the horse five lengths ahead falling at the last. A load of jockeys either with no horse or no idea how to run the horse. A start that jumped off from seemingly nowhere with no-one looking to get going. Disaster.

Roccocal at 80/1 ew in the next. Sure why not. Mad race.

Absolutely blessed by BOG in the 4.55. I took Midnight Maestro at 4/1 and got 17/2 because the bookies think I'm a mark. Good for me. Means I'm in profit for the day.