Scottish independence

L1011 · 21-01-2021 8:40pm

Aegir wrote: »

One million Scots voted to leave the EU, it could easily be said that those one million also voted for independence as they saw it as a way out of the eu as well.

It could easily be said - but only by a commentator who is either stark-raving mad or believes the voters to have been.

Voting to leave the UK as a means to end of leaving the EU; when the likely outcome was a rapid re-entry process but without any of the UKs get-outs - so the Euro, Schengen, less control on VAT, etc etc - would be the definition of insanity.

21-01-2021 9:21pm

L1011 wrote: »

It could easily be said - but only by a commentator who is either stark-raving mad or believes the voters to have been.

Voting to leave the UK as a means to end of leaving the EU; when the likely outcome was a rapid re-entry process but without any of the UKs get-outs - so the Euro, Schengen, less control on VAT, etc etc - would be the definition of insanity.

As none of us know individual voters and their reasons for voting the way they did, it is easy to say anything.

bob mcbob · 22-01-2021 12:28pm

Aegir wrote: »

they can, but that doesn't mean they should.

for the record, I think the Holyrood elections should take place, but holding an independence referendum seems like an unnecessary risk, especially when we are hopefully starting to see light at the end of the tunnel

a surge which was a direct result of the Scottish referendum.

One million Scots voted to leave the EU, it could easily be said that those one million also voted for independence as they saw it as a way out of the eu as well. I agree that Brexit is a significant event, but i'm not sure you can make the direct correlation between people voting YES and voting to remain.

you can only say it as false pretences if the no side knew that the UK was going to leave the EU. The main characters in the no campaign were all campaigning to remain.

Before the question of another referendum is posed, I believe the Holyrood elections need to take place. If there is a significant move towards the independence parties then i would agree that the time is right, but it seems pointless to do so beforehand.

Oh yes a lot of the fishing communities were pro Leave and they now realise they were scammed by Boris and the rest.

Here is a piece by the MP for Shetland and Orkney (LibDem a Unionist).

It was an act, but fishermen, desperate from years of being ignored and left to decline, wanted to believe in it. For decades fisheries management in the Common Fisheries Policy has been remote and poor. Their desperation was understandable – even if old hands in the industry knew that delivering these promises would require political will of the sort never previously evident.

And for those who think that Shetland and Orkney would leave to re-join Westminster if Scotland went independent.

Nobody likes to feel used. Delivering on the sweeping promises made to fishermen was always going to require massive political will, political will that Boris Johnson and his Vote Leave gang never intended to work for.

Unable to get fish to market because of our own government’s incompetence, there is growing anger in coastal communities about these broken promises. As the realisation sets in that they have been used for a bigger political purpose, that anger and disillusionment is only likely to grow.

Where do you think all these pro-Brexit and pro-Union voters will go now?

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/fishing-brexit-boris-johnson-common-fisheries-policy-b1790573.html

Water John · 23-01-2021 11:12am

It will be interesting to see if this disclosure order will damage anyone:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/22/scottish-parliament-orders-prosecutors-to-release-salmond-leak-evidence

A Dub in Glasgo · 23-01-2021 11:23am

If there was full transparency, the top of the SNP and the civil service would be fatally damaged. That is why they are trying so hard to hide the details

Mr.Nice Guy · 23-01-2021 8:10pm

Fascinating poll findings in The Sunday Times on the constitutional future of the UK.

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1353043741813202944

- An unprecedented survey of the state of the Union, based on separate polls in Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales, found that Scotland would vote for independence by a margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

- The polls show that voters in all four corners of the land expect Scotland to become independent within the next 10 years.

- The Scottish poll found that the SNP is on course for a huge landslide in the Scottish parliament elections due in May.

- Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, a majority — 51 per cent to 44 per cent — want a referendum about the border within the next five years.

Interesting to observe the attitudes to Scottish independence. In Scotland, 48% are pleased with the idea, 41% are upset; in NI, 44% are pleased, 43% are upset; while in England, 17% are pleased, and 46% are upset.

The polls suggest the prospect of the UK dismantling could prove a big shock to the English. 15% of people in England polled like the idea of an independent England, versus a massive 60% who don't.

Not a great appetite in Wales for significant change in the near future it would seem.

Water John · 24-01-2021 4:48pm

Well Sturgeon is going for an advisory Ref after the May elections if UK refuses a request for a fresh Indy Ref:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/24/scotland-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-snp-wins-may-

That certainly ups the ante.

Capt'n Midnight · 24-01-2021 7:01pm

Water John wrote: »

Well Sturgeon is going for an advisory Ref after the May elections if UK refuses a request for a fresh Indy Ref:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/24/scotland-independence-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-snp-wins-may-

That certainly ups the ante.

And the best Boris can say is

]if it were up to the SNP, then there wouldn’t have been a single vaccine delivered in Scotland. It was a UK effort, in other words, and needed the clout of a big government

Iceland is tiny. But Chief Epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason stated in an interview

it was important that Iceland worked with the EU on acquiring the vaccine. He comes to the conclusion that pharmaceutical companies would never negotiate with such a small country on its own.

But Sovereignty is more important, according to Boris & co.

fash · 24-01-2021 7:49pm

Aegir wrote: »

(the UK for example allows the Irish to vote in referendums, but the Irish do not reciprocate that for some reason), hence my saying I would not vote in an Irish unification referendum. Apologies if that doesn't suit you.

... Because they don't allow Irish to vote on their constitution or their head of state, we don't allow them.
If Ireland held glorified opinion polls -like British "referendums", then I'm confident Ireland would reciprocate.

Mr.Nice Guy · 24-01-2021 8:35pm

Not sure about the advisory referendum idea. I'm assuming the unionists will just boycott the entire thing.

Water John · 24-01-2021 9:01pm

Indeed, but they had to some extent, push on, even though I've said before the next GE isn't far away. It in many ways keeps the topic open in the UK national political fora and also placates the more radical element in the SNP.

Capt'n Midnight · 24-01-2021 9:07pm

Aegir wrote: »

I gave my opinion, that's all. I just happen to believe that there is a limit to what to non citizens should be able to vote on (the UK for example allows the Irish to vote in referendums, but the Irish do not reciprocate that for some reason), hence my saying I would not vote in an Irish unification referendum. Apologies if that doesn't suit you.

Irish Referendums are very different.

Here we vote on the EXACT WORDS that go into the constitution.

The Irish Constitution which supersedes everything can only be amended by citizens, not by the government, not by the legal system. This is why "unconstitutional" has a very different meaning to in the UK where constitutional issues can be bypassed tomorrow by using Henry the VIII's laws or having three Privy Councillors out of hundreds dictate to the Queen or other shenanigans because the UK constitution hasn't changed since the civil war and is exactly three words long, "Parliament is God".

Besides the UK Brexit referendum was "non-binding" and so wasn't even subject to normal UK controls.

Water John · 24-01-2021 11:15pm

BBC 1 News tonight goes first with the Alex Salmond issue, before doing the Ref question, what's new.

BonnieSituation · 24-01-2021 11:39pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Not sure about the advisory referendum idea. I'm assuming the unionists will just boycott the entire thing.

Water John wrote: »

Indeed, but they had to some extent, push on, even though I've said before the next GE isn't far away. It in many ways keeps the topic open in the UK national political fora and also placates the more radical element in the SNP.

This is it WJ.

I suspect that it won't even happen as something else will come along. But it's there to calm down the fringe independence elements and to light a fire under Unionism.

BonnieSituation · 24-01-2021 11:40pm

Water John wrote: »

BBC 1 News tonight goes first with the Alex Salmond issue, before doing the Ref question, what's new.

It begins!

McGiver · 25-01-2021 9:43am

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

The Irish Constitution which supersedes everything can only be amended by citizens, not by the government, not by the legal system. This is why "unconstitutional" has a very different meaning to in the UK where constitutional issues can be bypassed tomorrow by using Henry the VIII's laws or having three Privy Councillors out of hundreds dictate to the Queen or other shenanigans because the UK constitution hasn't changed since the civil war and is exactly three words long, "Parliament is God".

Correct.
The UK is effectively time limited one party dictatorship as any majority government (typically by winning less than 45% total votes in general election!) has the majority in the Parliament, which grants it the power to change "the Constitution" more or less as it wishes, because the Parliament is sovereign and can undo any bills or decisions of previous Parliaments, including "constitutional" changes, unlike in other countries with codified Constitution where the Constitutional Court can repell unconstitutional laws, the Supreme Court in the UK is quite weak and decisions can be anyway overriden or bypassed (e.g. By the Henry the 8th powers), plus the Government cannot be removed from power due to Fixed Parliament Act unless it removes itself!

This is a warped idea of democracy, it resembles more some hybrid regimes to be honest. No wonder the Scots don't like this.

Lumen · 25-01-2021 10:03am

McGiver wrote: »

Correct.
The UK is effectively time limited one party dictatorship as any majority government (typically by winning less than 45% total votes in general election!) has the majority in the Parliament, which grants it the power to change "the Constitution" more or less as it wishes, because the Parliament is sovereign and can undo any bills or decisions of previous Parliaments, including "constitutional" changes, unlike in other countries with codified Constitution where the Constitutional Court can repell unconstitutional laws, the Supreme Court in the UK is quite weak and decisions can be anyway overriden or bypassed (e.g. By the Henry the 8th powers), plus the Government cannot be removed from power due to Fixed Parliament Act unless it removes itself!

This is a warped idea of democracy, it resembles more some hybrid regimes to be honest. No wonder the Scots don't like this.

I think you might be overreaching there. The current status of Scotland as an administratively semi-detached part of the Union is a consequence of this "dictatorship" model. I don't think that devolution (which is surely a constitutional change) would have occurred if the structure of the Union had been baked into a written constitution only changeable by referendums, because the English would have voted against such a change.

Why Labour ever supported and propelled Scottish devolution and the Tories opposed it I have no idea, since the effect has been to leave Labour almost unelectable. Perhaps it was Gordon Brown's influence.

In any case, the unwritten constitution is a terrible idea in theory that works OK in practice.

McGiver · 25-01-2021 10:14am

Lumen wrote: »

I think you might be overreaching there. The current status of Scotland as an administratively semi-detached part of the Union is a consequence of this "dictatorship" model. I don't think that devolution (which is surely a constitutional change) would have occurred if the structure of the Union had been baked into a written constitution only changeable by referendums, because the English would have voted against such a change.

Why Labour ever supported and propelled Scottish devolution and the Tories opposed it I have no idea, since the effect has been to leave Labour almost unelectable. Perhaps it was Gordon Brown's influence.

In any case, the unwritten constitution is a terrible idea in theory that works OK in practice.

Of course, I am. But if you think about it - Government with constitutional powers by default, no Constitutional Court, Henry the 8th powers, Fixed Parliament Act. This is VERY different idea of democracy than in European constitutional systems where governments can be removed from power and where bills can be taken down by constitutional courts and where changes to constituation can be made only with supermajority or only by a referendum.
I'd argue the UK system is quasi-democratic.

McGiver · 25-01-2021 10:15am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Interesting to observe the attitudes to Scottish independence. In Scotland, 48% are pleased with the idea, 41% are upset; in NI, 44% are pleased, 43% are upset; while in England, 17% are pleased, and 46% are upset.

So they do care about Scotland leaving in fact...

25-01-2021 11:30am

fash wrote: »

... Because they don't allow Irish to vote on their constitution or their head of state, we don't allow them.
If Ireland held glorified opinion polls -like British "referendums", then I'm confident Ireland would reciprocate.

The head of state isn't voted for in a referendum, it is a separate process, so that isn't relevant.

Irish people in the UK are allowed to vote for who ever they feel represents their best interests. Those people have the ability to change the constitution as they see fit.

it is almost incredible that a British citizen in Ireland will not be able to vote on irish unification but an Irish citizen in Scotland can vote in a Scottish independence referendum.

IfIrish unification becomes reality, this is something that will need to be changed in order for British citizens to have parity as stated in the GFA.

25-01-2021 11:39am

McGiver wrote: »

So they do care about Scotland leaving in fact...

54% are either pleased, or don't care.

Water John · 25-01-2021 11:44am

The unconcealed contempt for the SNP MPs in the UK Parliament is similar to which Irish MPs were looked on in the 19C until Gladstone came along.

This is a good analysis of the possible break up of the Union and ironically it will lie at the feet of Johnson and Farage:
https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/brexit-trade-deal-5316364-Jan2021/

25-01-2021 12:15pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Besides the UK Brexit referendum was "non-binding" and so wasn't even subject to normal UK controls.

A referendum on Scottish independence would be non binding as well, as would a referendum on Irish unification.

fash · 25-01-2021 12:31pm

Aegir wrote: »

The head of state isn't voted for in a referendum, it is a separate process, so that isn't relevant.

It is very relevant: if the UK give me, as an Irish citizen, the right to vote for the next Queen, I would be open to supporting British voting for the next president.
The principle is reciprocity.

Irish people in the UK are allowed to vote for who ever they feel represents their best interests.

As the British are reciprocally entitled in Ireland.

Those people have the ability to change the constitution as they see fit.

In the UK they can't - one parliament cannot bind the next and the parliament is king.

it is almost incredible that a British citizen in Ireland will not be able to vote on irish unification but an Irish citizen in Scotland can vote in a Scottish independence referendum.

A UK citizen is just as free in Ireland to participate in voting parties out of the Big Brother house or similar- and a referendum in the UK is, from a constitutional perspective, equivalent - if not in fact less important.

IfIrish unification becomes reality, this is something that will need to be changed in order for British citizens to have parity as stated in the GFA.

Only if the UK introduces a written Constitution.

fash · 25-01-2021 12:34pm

Aegir wrote: »

A referendum on Scottish independence would be non binding as well, as would a referendum on Irish unification.

So considering that the UK does not grant Irish citizens the right to make binding referendum votes, should Ireland do so?
There would be no reciprocity.

Sam Russell · 25-01-2021 12:42pm

Aegir wrote: »

A referendum on Scottish independence would be non binding as well, as would a referendum on Irish unification.

No, that is not correct.

A vote on a referendum in Ireland is binding - we do not do non-binding referendums.

Under the GFA, a border poll IS binding if it is passed in NI AND in Ireland. If it is rejected in either side of the border, it dies for the next 7 years at least.

Before it can go to a referendum, the details regarding unification would have to be clear.

dogbert27 · 25-01-2021 1:10pm

McGiver wrote: »

So they do care about Scotland leaving in fact...

I think the 46% are probably more upset at the thought of the breaking of the United Kingdom due to some nostalgic loyalty to the crown more so than actually losing Scotland.

McGiver · 25-01-2021 1:12pm

Aegir wrote: »

54% are either pleased, or don't care.

46% are upset, that's a very strong feeling and very large percentage of the English, who frankly have no reason or right to be upset about Scotland's decisions.

Lumen · 25-01-2021 1:23pm

McGiver wrote: »

46% are upset, that's a very strong feeling and very large percentage of the English, who frankly have no reason or right to be upset about Scotland's decisions.

It's not just a Scottish question. If Scotland goes, Britain is diminished or doomed, and Britishness is broadly as important an identity as Englishness to English people.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/02/14/is-it-the-english-question-or-the-british-question-the-three-strands-of-britishness/

dogbert27 · 25-01-2021 1:55pm

I guess one of the reasons English people will not want Scotland to leave the Union is because they relate more to the Union Jack Flag and if Scotland left it would be the end of the Union Jack too.

It's more of how English relate to their Britishness and it's symbolism that will have them oppose the breaking of the Union more so than having Scotland as some sort of equal partner.

Scottish independence

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