Bank Holiday Weekend Heavy Rain Warning.(Spot/Local Flooding Likely)

Deep Easterly · 01-06-2012 4:18pm #1

MT's forecast today for Saturday night/Sunday morning:

SATURDAY NIGHT and SUNDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times overnight and Sunday morning, especially Galway to Dublin and parts of inland southeast, potential for 20-40 mm totals including the day's earlier rain ... not as wet in east Ulster but some rain at times there. Lows near 10-12 C and highs about 14-16 C for the north and east, to 17-20 C south and southwest where skies could try to clear later afternoon.

Met.ie Warning:

Weather Warning

Issued at 01 June 2012 - 10:55
Rainfall warning.
Between 25 and 65 mm of rain possible, (heaviest totals likely south midlands). The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by evening time. Rain slowly clearing southwards later Sunday.

Valid 1200 Sat 2/6/12 to 2100 Sun 3/6/12.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

I think this is a very hard one to call given the relatively unusual synoptics that are forecast for this weekend but might be something to watch just for the sake of interest if nothing else.

This is the 00z ECMWF rainfall forecast for late tomorrow afternoon, I have included some badly put explanations on the actual set up that could result in some places seeing some prolonged spells of rain over the course of the weekend.

Image from yr.no

Just to explain the chart a little, the warm, humid air mass that is over us now will be attacked from cooler polar air masses both to our north and southwest, helping to squeeze the life of out this humid air over Ireland. It is this 'squeezing' that will help to intensify the weak frontal zones that are currently hovering benignly over and close to the country at the moment.

There is a high level of uncertainty as to actual track and intensity of the main rain band though, but it seems the southern half of the country is most at risk of seeing some prolonged spells of rain from Saturday evening through to Sunday afternoon which could be heavy at times.

This thread could well end up being a 'bust', but it is something to keep an eye on anyways.

leahyl · 01-06-2012 5:35pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think this is a very hard one to call given the relatively unusual synoptics that are forecast for this weekend but might be something to watch just for the sake of interest if nothing else.

This is the 00z ECMWF rainfall forecast for late tomorrow afternoon, I have included some badly put explanations on the actual set up that could result in some places seeing some prolonged spells of rain over the course of the weekend.

This thread could well end up being a 'bust', but it is something to keep an eye on anyways.

Might this rain not be as bad so as ME are making out Deep Easterly?

Sponge Bob · 01-06-2012 5:56pm

Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched with floods in Clonmel or thereabouts and while I scalded meself alive all weekend on Clew Bay under constant clear blue skies it rained for 2 days solid in Galway City.

Once these Biscay 'pulses' set up they can be torrential, maybe they will only get as far as Wexford though.

I'd say Clew Bay is the place to be this weekend too.

darkman2 · 01-06-2012 6:19pm

Agree with the OP. Pretty much spot on. Nothing spectacular but something to keep an eye on just in case.

Deep Easterly · 01-06-2012 7:04pm

leahyl wrote: »

Might this rain not be as bad so as ME are making out Deep Easterly?

It may well not be, or it might even be worse! It really is a hard one to be anyway specific about due to complexity of the whole wider set up and they as well as MTC are right in warning people about this potential. The latest NAE and HIRLAM forecast charts are showing some fairly substantial rainfall totals falling over a 24 hour period over parts of Munster & Leinster in particular so the risk is there. Just a matter now of seeing whether it will materialize or not.

and if not, we can always Blame it on the Weather Man!

PS, just noticed I have the wrong time stamp on the chart in original post. The model run is from the 00z 1st (ie. today!) not the 2nd as I idiotically put on the map.

Cantona's Collars · 01-06-2012 8:00pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched

Once these Biscay 'pulses' set up they can be torrential, maybe they will only get as far as Wexford though.

I'd say Clew Bay is the place to be this weekend too.

It can feck off 'til Monday or Tuesday.:pac: I want the South East to live up to it's name: Sunny!

Redsunset · 01-06-2012 10:20pm

WarningsWeather WarningIssued at 01 June 2012 - 22:00

Rain Warning Update

Between 25mm & 65mm of rain over Connacht, Leinster and Munster, highest totals likely over the South Midlands.

The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime to affect much of Leinster, Connacht and the rest of Munster. The heaviest pulses of rain are expected Saturday night and early Sunday, with spot flooding. Rain retreating southwards Sunday afternoon.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

dfbemt · 01-06-2012 10:28pm

Based on Deep Easterly's OP I have put my fertiliser down on the grass. Needs to get a good soaking within 48 hours or I'll be looking at dust for the Summer.

Will be happy with sun until tomorrow evening but I really need it to rain before I get up on Sunday morning.

Sorry sun worshippers

Graces7 · 01-06-2012 10:32pm

dfbemt wrote: »

Based on Deep Easterly's OP I have put my fertiliser down on the grass. Needs to get a good soaking within 48 hours or I'll be looking at dust for the Summer.

Will be happy with sun until tomorrow evening but I really need it to rain before I get up on Sunday morning.

Sorry sun worshippers

That scenario is fine by me... Trading at Bandon Market tomorrow morning and my gazebo turned turtle in the high winds so I have no cover.. NB did not water the garden on the strength of a good soaking on the way.

cml387 · 01-06-2012 10:37pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched with floods in Clonmel or thereabouts and while I scalded meself alive all weekend on Clew Bay under constant clear blue skies it rained for 2 days solid in Galway City.

.

I remember it well (I've mentioned it here previously).
Torrential rain didn't stop for two days.

Su Campu · 01-06-2012 10:49pm

redsunset wrote: »

WarningsWeather WarningIssued at 01 June 2012 - 22:00

Rain Warning Update

Between 25mm & 65mm of rain over Connacht, Leinster and Munster, highest totals likely over the South Midlands.

The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime to affect much of Leinster, Connacht and the rest of Munster. The heaviest pulses of rain are expected Saturday night and early Sunday, with spot flooding. Rain retreating southwards Sunday afternoon.

Thanks for posting that redsunset, because some on here will try to claim that forecast never existed if it does turn out to be accurate! :rolleyes:

It is an interesting setup alright, with a jet streak to our north providing maximum QG forcing some time tomorrow afternoon / evening. The GFS chart for 18Z tomorrow below shows PW around 30-35 mm, and enhanced lift through the south and midlands, which should give really awful conditions through Munster and the midlands tomorrow afternoon and evening. Local topography should cause wide variations in rainfall amounts, with upwind (E-facing) slopes receiving the most tomorrow evening and night, and extensive low cloud and hill fog.

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 12:51am

Umm latest HIrlam shows a good deluge of accumulated rainfall in line with Met Eireann's warning .
I've edited thread title to highlight the threat of flooding.

[IMG]http://[/img]http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/aemet/2012/06/01/basis18/ukuk/rsum/12060318_0118.gif

Rikand · 02-06-2012 8:44am

will there be strong wind with it or just rain ? hopefully just rain - dont want that coming in horizontal like

BarryM · 02-06-2012 9:03am

Update in the extreme SW, on Sherkin Island. Very light rain (<1mm) this last hour, wind E at 3bf, temp 14.9. ME's rainfall radar is showing we're in the yellow... I agree with the prognosis even though it hasn't been too warm except for a short period yesterday.

The local ME station is showing 0.2mm rain at 08.00.

Not very meteorological but reports locally are the sea temp has risen a lot in the last week and the ferry engine cooler intake got blocked with jelly fish yesterday!!

SeaFields · 02-06-2012 9:12am

Constant lightish rain in south kerry at the mo with the odd heavy burst

Between this and the muggy, still air being a mecca for midges, my bank holiday BBQ may have to be cancelled this evening

leahyl · 02-06-2012 9:31am

Just reading MT's forecast there and it seems he's mentioned every county except Cork as regards heavy rainfall (ok maybe slight exaggeration!) but he doesn't mention Cork at all and judging from those charts above we're in for some fairly heavy rainfall

Iancar29 · 02-06-2012 10:19am

leahyl wrote: »

Just reading MT's forecast there and it seems he's mentioned every county except Cork as regards heavy rainfall (ok maybe slight exaggeration!) but he doesn't mention Cork at all and judging from those charts above we're in for some fairly heavy rainfall

Heavy rain will indeed effect Cork today but its the thought of the front stalling over the midlands that i think he individually has mentioned those counties for.

hi res shows the heaviest of the rains in the south about 5pm. But then shows the front as a whole stalling this evening before shifting SE tomorrow .

BarryM · 02-06-2012 10:31am

BBC showing rain cleared the SW at 04.00 Sunday, yipee...

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 12:37pm

Met Éireann
Heavy persistent rain progressively affecting much of S half of the country by evening.Some spot flooding.Highs 15-19C in freshening E winds.

And dare I suggest that the east coast counties of Dublin, Wicklow, Meath, Louth get a good soaking with the potential for some streams/rivers bursting banks. Could be ample amount of rainwater pouring down from the Dublin,Wicklow hills/mountains to cause some concern later. Just putting it out there as this looks to be carrying alot of energy as it stalls for a time.

Jim_Kiy · 02-06-2012 12:58pm

Netweather reckoning heaviest rainfall in Dublin between 7 am an 10 am tomorrow morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;ct=31739~Dublin;sess=#forecast

Just hope it clears up for forbidden fruit festival in the afternoon but seems to be a hell of alot rain on the way before then.

Su Campu · 02-06-2012 1:26pm

11 mm fell at Valentia since 7 am, 4 mm at Sherkin Island, 0.2 mm at Roches Point and 0.1 mm at Cork Airport.

admiralofthefleet · 02-06-2012 1:28pm

will it still be raining on monday in arklow?

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 1:33pm

Weather Warning

Issued at 01 June 2012 - 12:00

Rain Warning Update
Between 25mm & 65mm of rain expected over Leinster and Munster, highest totals likely over the South Midlands.

The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest today, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime. The heaviest pulses of rain are expected Saturday night and for a time on Sunday, with spot flooding. Rain retreating southwards Sunday afternoon
and early evening

valid from 1200 Saturday June 2
until 2000 Sunday June 3

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

And Met Eireann have issued this on
http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index2.php?country=IE&day=0&lang=

valid from 02.06.2012 12:03 CET Until 03.06.2012 18:59 CET
Rain Awareness Level: Orange
"rain becoming heavy and persistent with local flooding"

Updated thread title also to reflect Warnings.

Aiel · 02-06-2012 1:59pm

Were'nt they talking just last week about the Reservoir's(sp) around the Dublin area being a bit low recently.So this rain should more then alleviate any water problems.

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 2:01pm

Well Well I see updated rainfall accumulations has now made the east coast very very wet, and spreads across Midlands. I might not be too mad after all. Plenty of water could be rushing down them hills. Evolving situation so nothing guaranteed.

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 2:03pm

Aiel wrote: »

Were'nt they talking just last week about the Reservoir's(sp) around the Dublin area being a bit low recently.So this rain should more then alleviate any water problems.

Will help for sure, as we had a good dry spell.

Met Éireann Via Twitter
Hazy sun early this aft in N&NE.Rain in SW spreading NE'wrds to all but Ulst by midnight.Rain bec persistent/heavy/spot flooding.Max 15-19C.

leahyl · 02-06-2012 2:09pm

redsunset wrote: »

Well Well I see updated rainfall accumulations has now made the east coast very very wet, and spreads across Midlands. I might not be too mad after all. Plenty of water could be rushing down them hills. Evolving situation so nothing guaranteed.

Sorry redsunset but is that chart for particular time of day or is it just indicating where will get heaviest/most rainfall?

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 2:12pm

Its simply accumulated rainfall figures from now till Sunday evening. Don't take it as gospel.

MiNdGaM3 · 02-06-2012 3:06pm

Just light rain/heavy drizzle in Cork so far, barely forming puddles yet.

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 3:54pm

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Just light rain/heavy drizzle in Cork so far, barely forming puddles yet.

I don't think Cork City will get much from this, the whole thing looks to push up far enough to leave your relatively dry much later and then the rain stalls over middle of country and slowly pivots before eventually pulling away to the south east.

snaps · 02-06-2012 4:03pm

The radar is strange, big yellow blob over galway and mayo, but ive just driven from Galway and not a spot of rain. Sun is sort of shinning here in south mayo. people cutting their grass and all the kids are out playing.

leahyl · 02-06-2012 4:09pm

redsunset wrote: »

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Just light rain/heavy drizzle in Cork so far, barely forming puddles yet.

I don't think Cork City will get much from this, the whole thing looks to push up far enough to leave your relatively dry much later and then the rain stalls over middle of country and slowly pivots before eventually pulling away to the south east.

What?! I was looking forward to a big rain event!! :-(

MiNdGaM3 · 02-06-2012 4:50pm

redsunset wrote: »

I don't think Cork City will get much from this, the whole thing looks to push up far enough to leave your relatively dry much later and then the rain stalls over middle of country and slowly pivots before eventually pulling away to the south east.

It is after getting a little heavier in the last 40 minutes or so, verging on moderate at the moment with some puddles finally forming!
The NAE shows the heavier stuff arriving at around 6 this evening, so while the front looks like stalling a little to the north, I think we may keep some steady precip from the trailing edge and maybe squeeze ~30mm in Cork in the next 24 hours.
I have a view of the Lee after moving into my new apartment 2 days ago, so I'll keep an eye on the water level anyway!

Su Campu · 02-06-2012 4:54pm

snaps wrote: »

The radar is strange, big yellow blob over galway and mayo, but ive just driven from Galway and not a spot of rain. Sun is sort of shinning here in south mayo. people cutting their grass and all the kids are out playing.

The cloud base around the conutry is still fairly high (3,000-4,000 ft), with relatively dry air below, therefore much of the precipitation is being picked up by the radar but is evaporating before reaching the ground. This has also led to the several degrees of cooling that has occured this afternoon, and eventually this evaporative cooling will lower the cloudbase later today / tonight and therefore more of the rain will reach the ground too.

2012060212.03953.skewt.gif

sunbabe08 · 02-06-2012 4:58pm

raining here in youghal.

leahyl · 02-06-2012 5:05pm

Lashing down in Cork City now :-D

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 5:20pm

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

It is after getting a little heavier in the last 40 minutes or so, verging on moderate at the moment with some puddles finally forming!
The NAE shows the heavier stuff arriving at around 6 this evening, so while the front looks like stalling a little to the north, I think we may keep some steady precip from the trailing edge and maybe squeeze ~30mm in Cork in the next 24 hours.
I have a view of the Lee after moving into my new apartment 2 days ago, so I'll keep an eye on the water level anyway!

Oh don't get me wrong, you are going to get very wet and yes the latest higher resolution GFS shows that rain clearing your area towards the small hours or earlier and straddling middle of country for a prolonged period of time.

[IMG][/img]

Su Campu · 02-06-2012 5:25pm

The GFS Gramet for Cork shows the rain stopping around 10 pm, with around 25 mm falling from now until then.

dexter647 · 02-06-2012 5:39pm

Raining quite steady here for the past hour or so..Could be some flooding issues for the midlands if this front stalls as forecast

IrishHomer · 02-06-2012 5:49pm

dexter647 wrote: »

Raining quite steady here for the past hour or so..Could be some flooding issues for the midlands if this front stalls as forecast

Where is here?

sunbabe08 · 02-06-2012 5:55pm

lashing and i mean lashing down here in youghal :eek:

mickger844posts · 02-06-2012 5:55pm

Just 0.2mm of rain here so far.

Min · 02-06-2012 5:58pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

lashing and i mean lashing down here in youghal :eek:

Check the 3 hour forecast - the worse yet to come...

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/3hour.asp?LW=Kilkenny

Popoutman · 02-06-2012 6:04pm

Limerick City hasn't started heavy rainfall yet. There's been enough "soft" drizzly light rain to saturate the soil and leave tarmac very wet. Presuming that there's more to come.

Dublin Red Devil · 02-06-2012 6:13pm

Looks like i'm not going to get to cut my lawns this weekend.

DOCARCH · 02-06-2012 6:27pm

12.5mm recorded at Roches Pt between 1700 and 1800.

Redsunset · 02-06-2012 6:57pm

All major models now finally agreeing on the south west receiving the most rainfall totals during the wet period.

I'm sure ye are all used to it by now anyway. Lived around there for a while and boy does it get wet at times.

MiNdGaM3 · 02-06-2012 7:04pm

redsunset wrote: »

All major models now finally agreeing on the south west receiving the most rainfall totals during the wet period.

I'm sure ye are all used to it by now anyway. Lived around there for a while and boy does it get wet at times.

Malin Head is looking grand!

MiNdGaM3 · 02-06-2012 7:20pm

The station in Cobh has just passed the 20mm mark http://86.43.106.118/weather/
While Roches Point has had another 16mm in the last hour!

Su Campu · 02-06-2012 7:24pm

12-hour rainfall totals (mm) to 7 pm:

Roche's Point 38
Valentia, Sherkin Island 18
Cork Airport 14
Mace Head 7
Shannon Airport 6

Amazing difference between Roches Point and Cork Airport, which are only 16 km apart.

MiNdGaM3 · 02-06-2012 7:33pm

Su Campu wrote: »

12-hour rainfall totals (mm) to 7 pm:

Roche's Point 38
Valentia, Sherkin Island 18
Cork Airport 14
Mace Head 7
Shannon Airport 6

Amazing difference between Roches Point and Cork Airport, which are only 16 km apart.

On the radar loop, the strongest returns seem to be forming a line along the east of Cork Harbour.

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Bank Holiday Weekend Heavy Rain Warning.(Spot/Local Flooding Likely)

Comments