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Could tropical storm Arthur affect Ireland next week?

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  • 15-05-2020 8:59pm
    #1
    Banner fights back
    Closed Accounts Posts: 68 ✭✭


    A developing low off Bahamas is threatening to produce the first major storm in the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season. It appears that this storm that will be called Arthur if it does reach tropical storm formation is heading in an South westerly direction and could impact Ireland later next week, possibly as early as next Friday.

    The hurricane season doesn't officially get underway until the 1st June and runs until the end of November.

    All indications suggest that the upcoming hurricane season looks set to be an active one. Some forecasters are even predicting an "extremely active" season with up to 9 or more named hurricanes possible between now and the conclusion of hurricane season 2020.

    Something to keep in track over the coming days that's for sure.

    I can't post links as I don't have a pc so anyone that can post up to date charts will be most appreciated.


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    #2
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,732 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's entirely possible that Storm Author could help fire up the jet-stream and bring low pressures back in over us from the west, that could be one of the reasons why the GFS is upgrading the unsettled outlook over the past few days. Past couple of runs has us into an unsettled scene from next Thursday.


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    #3
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Certainly worth keeping an eye on it to see if it tracks over this way.

    EJPNRje.png

    1rtEeUY.png

    nVv3fb9.gif


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    #4
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Handy site from NOAA to follow model predictions.

    https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

    eKg2VhY.png


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    #5
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Interesting to see. Certainly a test for the models. Will our northern blocking hold firm? If this scoots up the west coast of Greenland we could be in for an extended dry and warm June.


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    #6
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,839 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Latest guidance shows Tropical Storm Arthur eventually dying out / getting merged into other weather a couple of hundred Km's SE of Bermuda

    uggsa0y.png

    M65xs6C.png


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    #7
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,350 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It appears that Arthur would lose energy around the time a deep mid-Atlantic low forms northwest of the Azores and that will bear watching but as the models currently show things, that storm passing Donegal on Friday won't be Arthur, however it may be carrying Arthur's sword.


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