Australian Economy Thread

catbear · 09-10-2014 5:01am

According to this revised system, the total number of people with jobs - both part-time and full-time - in September was 11.59 million, compared with 11.62 million in August.
The number of unemployed rose from 735,00 to 746,00 over the same period.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-rate-hits-61-in-september-20141009-113gyn.html#ixzz3FcIchoC8

Any slowdown in the job creation rate will stack up the unemployment rate.

jank · 09-10-2014 5:17am

Catbear the resident merchant of doom.

AngryHippie · 09-10-2014 5:43am

catbear wrote: »

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-rate-hits-61-in-september-20141009-113gyn.html#ixzz3FcIchoC8

Any slowdown in the job creation rate will stack up the unemployment rate.

At face value today's data suggest that labour market conditions have stabilised in recent months," the bank said.

"However, it is important to note that these figures will be revised next month, with today's preliminary figures based on a 'stop-gap' methodology until the ABS can determine what the new appropriate seasonal pattern is.

Nothing to see here.:rolleyes:

catbear · 09-10-2014 5:45am

jank wrote: »

Catbear the resident merchant of doom.

People contemplating a move here may find discussion of current economic trends useful in making their decision. Relocating a family half way around the world to where unemployment is rising may not seem like a great idea unless they're moving for a job that's pretty solid.

catbear · 09-10-2014 5:52am

AngryHippie wrote: »

Nothing to see here.:rolleyes:

Yip, nothing at all.

Go Team Australia!

jank · 09-10-2014 8:26am

catbear wrote: »

People contemplating a move here may find discussion of current economic trends useful in making their decision. Relocating a family half way around the world to where unemployment is rising may not seem like a great idea unless they're moving for a job that's pretty solid.

Discussing the Australian economy and its state, short term and long term is of course welcome and a good thing.
However, I was just making reference to your posts in this thread that seem to only post negative views of the Australian economy. You have posted 38 times so far and each one of them gives a negative assessment. Of course if one was only reading this thread you would swear that Australia is a few years away from being a basket case like Greece or Argentina. Not really the case and I would advise people to look at a more balanced view.

aido79 · 09-10-2014 11:58am

jank wrote: »

Discussing the Australian economy and its state, short term and long term is of course welcome and a good thing.
However, I was just making reference to your posts in this thread that seem to only post negative views of the Australian economy. You have posted 38 times so far and each one of them gives a negative assessment. Of course if one was only reading this thread you would swear that Australia is a few years away from being a basket case like Greece or Argentina. Not really the case and I would advise people to look at a more balanced view.

I get impression that he almost hopes Australia becomes a basket case like Greece or Argentina...but not before he milks it for all he can and then heads back to Ireland, and probably bad mouths Australia there to anyone who ever mentions Australia especially Perth.

AngryHippie · 09-10-2014 11:16pm

catbear wrote: »

Yip, nothing at all.

Go Team Australia!

Now lets put it in perspective, with a slow-down in recovery in Europe and the Dow sh!tting points all night, the AUD back over 69c.

We know there is a property bubble, we know unemployment has crept back up, but as the report said, the figures given are interim until the seasonal adjustment figures have been modeled.
It will surge again in the coming weeks as casual work increases in the run up to Christmas. September is always a funny time of year.

Once the seasonally adjusted figure has been released, you can put on your tin foil hat, and do your chicken little run down main st. But every time you jump the gun, expect to get some flak for it, especially when you've been banging on like a cracked record for a few years now shouting 'Zebras' every time you hear hooves.

As for the "Team Australia" remark, well fcuk yeah, why not ?

You think I'm a shill for the Australian economy ?

I can't even afford to buy a house here, why would I be an apologist for it ?
I'm just not overly negative about an economy that while just as vulnerable as the entire Western Banking system at present, is still robust enough to survive.

sin_city · 10-10-2014 12:38am

AngryHippie wrote: »

I can't even afford to buy a house here, why would I be an apologist for it ?
I'm just not overly negative about an economy that while just as vulnerable as the entire Western Banking system at present, is still robust enough to survive.

Why do you think the Western Banking system can survive?

Australia has so much going for it long term...a really good bet to have an Australian passport as an asset.

AngryHippie · 10-10-2014 4:04am

sin_city wrote: »

Why do you think the Western Banking system can survive?

Australia has so much going for it long term...a really good bet to have an Australian passport as an asset.

Because it will take WW3 to remove it.

Filling out the paperwork this weekend, have the citizenship done and dusted anyway.

sin_city · 10-10-2014 6:08am

AngryHippie wrote: »

Because it will take WW3 to remove it.

Filling out the paperwork this weekend, have the citizenship done and dusted anyway.

It is being removed as we speak. Australia is in a good position in that it is connected to the previous power US/UK as well as the new one China.

Goodluck on the citizenship.

catbear · 19-03-2015 4:16pm

Current state of play. As expected mining continues to shrink.

Australia's mining companies are shedding jobs by the thousands, with 50,000 workers losing their jobs in the past 12 months.
The country's manufacturing industry has been shrinking too, though not as quickly - dumping 25,300 jobs since February last year.

Economists say the huge drop-off in mining jobs has been offset by strong growth in services. The much-needed economic transition away from mining and towards non-mining activity is progressing.
The construction industry has been a big beneficiary of Australia's record-low interest rate environment. A boom in housing activity - new dwellings and renovations - has seen construction worker numbers soar by 45,800 since February 2014.
But the biggest jobs gains have occurred in professional, scientific and technical services, up by 98,800 people in the last year (from 889,000 to 987,800).

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/mining-companies-shedding-jobs-by-the-thousands-20150319-1m35zx.html#ixzz3UqRf2ic2

The Aussie · 21-03-2015 3:38pm

aido79 wrote: »

I get impression that he almost hopes Australia becomes a basket case like Greece or Argentina...but not before he milks it for all he can and then heads back to Ireland, and probably bad mouths Australia there to anyone who ever mentions Australia especially Perth.

JONJOE the Second...

Hates it but stays there, very odd.

Timistry · 21-03-2015 6:45pm

I may not be an economist but I think the economy is a house of cards.

In the article above posted by catbear the number of houses being built is rising and rising. In Perth there is a huge shortage of bricklayers and the good ones are outearning doctors, lawyers etc hands down. That is being paid for my money borrowed from the banks at historically low interest rates, a fact that is advertised heavily. Rents are dropping,house prices are dropping and there is a flood of unoccupied office space in the city. Investment properties becoming a liability perhaps?

People in oz where isolated from the effects of the GFC by historically high iron ore prices and now they are at historic lows. iron ore industry revenues are in freefall in the apparent race to the bottom. Jobs are being lost left right and centre but people outside of the mining industry are oblivious to this it seems and keep borrowing huge sums like the good times will last for ever (remind you of anything???). The cost of living is increasing not decreasing.

The government is banking on the manufacturing sector taking up the slack. No chance IMO. Just look at the car industry, moving to asia because the costs in OZ are huge. As regards unemployment, it is rising but most people seem to think that the menial service jobs in catering, customer service jobs etc are beneath them. if the economy gets stuck in a rut, there is a chance it could get bogged down

Slideways · 22-03-2015 3:33am

I'm no economist but I have been employed in the mining sector for 3 years now. There is no way in hell I would buy a house right now. It all appears like it could come tumbling down at any stage.

Products and services seem to be priced on a whim, with huge discrepancies from one supplier to another. It really reminds me of how things all went south back home. Discussing it with people here, they always say that Australia isnt Ireland, reliant on one sector. It does have other irons in the fire but if the mining sector collapses I am of the opinion the knock on effect will drag a lot more down with it

irishmover · 22-03-2015 4:35am

Just in addition to the above article, here's one which sits closer to home as I've worked out of Emerald for 18 months, from mid 2012 until late 2013.

Working at Claremont, Moranbah, Blackwater and the new Adani mine at Carmichael I've been around most of the mines are places it talks about. Awful to see its destruction on these towns.

My old secretary from the company I worked for had bought an investment property in Blackwater. I'm sure she's not surviving too well at the moment.

http://m.couriermail.com.au/business/companies/the-aussie-towns-destroyed-by-chinas-economic-slowdown/story-fnkjk9kn-1227262601440

catbear · 23-03-2015 11:28pm

Woodside announced 300 jobs to go. Last year it was BHP cutting by 20%. I read a while back that Perth had seen a surge of roughly 40% increase in properties for sale in Perth since last year.

jank · 23-03-2015 11:53pm

Woodside job losses more to do with the global energy prices than anything else and has been on the cards a while.

catbear · 24-03-2015 12:37am

jank wrote: »

Woodside job losses more to do with the global energy prices than anything else and has been on the cards a while.

As a commodities exporter WA is getting hammered. Just heard from a friend in Chevron, major redundancies on the way there too.

Edit: https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26782159/big-job-cuts-loom-at-chevron/

Chevron will not put a figure on the likely cuts but there is an expectation the 4000-strong WA team could be cut in half by the time the Gorgon and Wheatstone projects begin operations.
Gorgon is supposed to become fully operational later this year, followed by Wheatstone towards the end of next year, marking the end of a construction boom that is currently employing more than 10,000 Chevron staff and contractors.

The projected fall off in project construction.

catbear · 27-03-2015 12:20pm

Keep in mind this guy is promoting his own book.

If new home buyers cannot access (or are not willing to take on) a greater sum of debt compared to previous buyers, Australia's wealth-creation strategy will collapse just like it did in Ireland. Rest assured, our society is definitely caught up in the same irrational exuberance they experienced.

From 1996 to 2014, housing prices and mortgage debt significantly outpaced economic fundamentals like inflation, rents, incomes and GDP. Yet, our central bankers are more concerned about whether we will pay less tomorrow for a can of soda than new home buyers in Sydney borrowing $50,000 more than last year to buy a home. Where is the logic in that?

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/australia-is-in-one-of-the-worst-housing-bubbles-we-have-ever-seen-20150327-1m8vao.html

catbear · 10-04-2015 6:18pm

Interesting time in WA. Atlas Iron suspends production.

catbear · 20-07-2015 7:03pm

During the boom years of the so-called commodities “super cycle” when China couldn’t buy enough of everything that Australia dug out of the ground, the country’s economy resembled oil-rich Saudi Arabia.
While the rest of the world suffered from the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Australia’s economy – closely tied to China – appeared impervious, with full employment and a healthy trade surplus.

Iron ore is now trading at around $50 per tonne, compared with a peak of around $180 per tonne achieved in 2011. Thermal coal has also suffered heavy losses, now trading at around $60 per tonne compared with around $150 per tonne four years ago.

For an economy which in 2012 depended on resources for 65pc of its total trade in goods and services these dramatic falls in prices are almost impossible to absorb without inflicting wider damage. The drop in foreign currency earnings has seen Australia forced to borrow more in order to maintain government spending.

Although recent surveys of business confidence have been encouraging, outside mining the economy appears hopelessly weighted to the only other area of significant growth, real estate.
The problem is that Australia, after decades of effort to diversify, is looking ever more like a petrodollar economy of the Middle East, but without the vast horde of foreign currency reserves to fall back on when commodity prices fall.

http://www.independent.ie/business/world/could-australia-become-the-new-greece-31389120.html

catbear · 24-08-2015 10:29am

With the good times looking like they are coming to an end and unemployment trending upwards – though at 6.3 per cent it is still far lower than in most western countries – it is no surprise fewer skilled migrants are coming to Australia and others are returning to their homelands, including Ireland.
Eamon Eastwood, chief executive of Taste Ireland, which imports Irish products to Australia, says sales through supermarkets have been increasing, but online sales – which are more likely to be orders from expats – are static. Mr Eastwood is also involved with Cormac McAnallen GAA club in Sydney. He says club members are going back to Ireland. “There’s definitely been a trickle of people going home. Numbers are slightly down at some of the clubs, so there are some signs of people going back.”

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/crisis-down-under-the-doomsayers-may-finally-be-right-1.2323172

Meanwhile todays Shaghai stock plunge takes the Aus$ down to .63c/€.

catbear · 18-01-2016 1:09am

I took my eye off the ball and didn't lock in gains last year, fund is down roughly 6% from peak. I'm cashing out now but those who are in Aus for the foreseeable future may want to think about moving more into cash for the next while.

lg123 · 18-01-2016 9:38am

what currency is the magic question?!

catbear wrote: »

I took my eye off the ball and didn't lock in gains last year, fund is down roughly 6% from peak. I'm cashing out now but those who are in Aus for the foreseeable future may want to think about moving more into cash for the next while.

catbear · 18-01-2016 1:15pm

lg123 wrote: »

what currency is the magic question?!

Don't know. We did well with the Aus$ when it was strong on the back of the Chinese commodity splurge, that's over. The NZ$ has been less volatile than the Aus$ over the last ten years, their soft commodities like agri produce have a constant demand as opposed to the hard commodity gold rush nature of OZ.

I have to move to the UK later this year but I'm holding off buying the £ and hopefully cash in on volatility around Brixet; plus the UK is possibly the most exposed of european countries to slowdowns in China. The £ already lost a good bit against the Euro since the Chinese stock tumble at the start of January.

Edit to add: When I said "move to cash" I meant restructure your superannuation account away from shares and more towards cash in australia; not foreign currency. I had reduced my exposure but still got burned whereas my wife is totally risk adverse switched her super fund completely to cash at the same and her fund lost nothing. A lot of superannuation providers allow you to reconfigure your fund online, just check with them. I feel like a bit of idiot for not taking my own advice and forgetting about it. Probably lost a good bit in the first week of Jan.

lg123 · 26-01-2016 7:13am

yup, i got burned with some GBP i was holding too. was almost cancelled out with the USD I had but a little more attention would have probably kept me in the green.

Australian Economy Thread

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