Hurricane Michael

Villain · 10-10-2018 10:12am

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220km/h) with higher gusts!

That is going to cause some real destruction!

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 10:17am

Mission 13 has just measured 108-kt surface winds in the eastern eyewall and 105-kt in the northern eyewall at in the past 15 minutes. Any higher winds are likely very localised in a small part of the northeast eyewall. EDIT: Surface pressure 937.8 hPa on that pass.

10-10-2018 10:18am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

123-knot surface winds found at 07:23Z. Shít's got real.

SHIPS doesn't want to increase it to that level.

10-10-2018 10:39am

Image at 0927 UTC.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 11:25am

118 kts SFMR surface wind found in the northern eyewall a few mins ago. Nothing higher than the earlier 123 kts so far.

It's withing radar range now. A nice site for watching high-density surface observations is this. No land gusts above 30 mph so far but Tyndall Tower offshore reporting 59 mph gust now.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=7&scroll_zoom=true&center=27.8000,-86.6000&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false,false&hazard=true&hazard_type=hi-all&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind,rh,gust,slp&obs_popup=true&obs_density=1

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 12:23pm

Mission 13 found 125 knots in the northeast eyewall at 10:53Z. Mission 14 is just in the eastern eyewall now and has found max 102 knots. It seems to have peaked in intensity, with the highest winds stabilising 120-125 kts in a narrow area of the northeast eyewall.

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 12:50pm

More strengthening to 145mph now. Will take a big push to reach Cat 5 Status

ninebeanrows · 10-10-2018 1:21pm

Will this be one of the strongest late season hurricanes?

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 1:28pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Will this be one of the strongest late season hurricanes?

Could be in the top ten strongest landfalls ever to hit the US

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 1:31pm

I don't believe so, there's Wilma as a Cat 5 which peaked October 19 2005, and there's an unnamed hurricane from November 1932 that was also Cat 5 (though I don't know about the accuracy of older readings like that).

Edit: I didn't see you said "one of the strongest" and not *the* strongest, so yes, that's definitely true.

It could be the first Cat 4 hurricane to 'strike' (whatever that specifically means) the Florida Panhandle:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/10/hurricane-michael-could-become-strongest-record-strike-florida-panhandle-wednesday/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.aa0205fb77eb

10-10-2018 1:33pm

12Z SHIPS forecast has upgraded the intensity.

M.T. Cranium · 10-10-2018 1:45pm

Radar for the landfall zone, still looks like a landfall close to Panama City FL, would be a lot less damage in total if that turns out to be 10 miles southeast than anywhere northwest of there (estimated population from 10 miles southeast of Panama City to Appalachicola being 20,000; Panama City several times that).

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Landfall expected to be around 1800h (UTC).

Have been reading mixed reviews of evacuation on U.S. social media and weather forum, however a lot of the weaker results appear to be on the storm's good side hopefully (where storm surge will be minimal and wind damage moderate at worst).

I have read predictions that even cat-1 winds inland will do lots of damage to the electric power grid with Tallahassee mentioned as a location where a lot of untested trees are going to take down overhead wires in the city. If Michael hits land at cat-4 it will take 100 miles of inland penetration to bring winds down below cat-1 threshhold.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 2:44pm

Even the Weather Channel have evacuated:
https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1050001785635655685

(although yes, that area they were in was particularly isolated)

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 2:44pm

926.8mb now with latest recon. My god.

greedygoblin · 10-10-2018 2:52pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Even the Weather Channel have evacuated:
(although yes, that area they were in was particularly isolated)

Left it too late to leave:
https://twitter.com/mikebettes/status/1050019900562034689

star gazer · 10-10-2018 3:17pm

000
WTNT64 KNHC 101355
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
900 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...9 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...

A private weather station in Bald Point, Florida, recently reported
a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and wind gust of 59 mph (95
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 58
mph (93 km/h). A Weatherflow station in St. Andrew Bay recently
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph
(77 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 4 feet of inundation above
ground level.

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...29.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NHC

https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge

hatrickpatrick · 10-10-2018 3:28pm

Aircraft recon just reported a surface pressure of 925.7mb. Intensification continuing unabated.

Hard to believe there are still people on the coast taking photos etc :eek:

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 3:29pm

This is an impressive graphic

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 3:33pm

The SFMR winds seem to be down a tad in the last hour, hovering around 108-115 kts in the NE eyewall during two separate missions. Small consolation if you're in the path, though the area of these winds is remarkably narrow, probably only 5 miles wide.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 4:13pm

So many reporters standing in the rain.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 4:41pm

Max sustained winds have just increased to 150 mph according to latest recon. Pressure 923 mb.

That's on the edge of Cat 5 now.

sryanbruen · 10-10-2018 4:47pm

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1050049106662440962

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 4:52pm

Not good company to be in ^

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 4:55pm

Weather Channel stream here.

http://www.livenewson.com/american/the-weather-channel.html

star gazer · 10-10-2018 4:57pm

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1050051765914230784
"Landfall of #HurricaneMichael is imminent. THIS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO for the Florida Panhandle!! Listen to your local emergency officials. Stay Inside & Survive!" --NWS Director Dr. Louis Uccellini "

dfx- · 10-10-2018 5:05pm

but it does look to be a landfall in a relatively sparsely populated part of the coast

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 5:13pm

Reporter on CNN

"Isn't the Palm Tree a fascinating piece of vegetation?"

It is indeed.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 5:17pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Max sustained winds have just increased to 150 mph according to latest recon. Pressure 923 mb.

That's on the edge of Cat 5 now.

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 5:21pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

The NHC have apparently gone with the 150mph winds.

Edit: from the weather channel which are saying it also.

RobertKK · 10-10-2018 5:21pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

It is on CNN:
Wind speed: 150mph, it went up from 145mph.

OneEightSeven · 10-10-2018 5:24pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

Weather Underground have it, too.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 5:26pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

NHC

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1050046648158744576

10-10-2018 5:27pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Where are you seeing that 150 mph?

Approx 115-120 kt SFMR wind speeds from the most recent fly through.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 5:30pm

It's hilarious that the Weather Channel feel the need to create dramatic trailers for the hurricane, just show us the real life drama.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 5:35pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Approx 115-120 kt SFMR wind speeds from the most recent fly through.

Yes, that's what I was seeing too, but it's not 150 mph. It's even slightly lower than earlier.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 5:47pm

CNN - do we really need footage of Trump not giving a **** about any of this?

star gazer · 10-10-2018 5:49pm

dfx- wrote: »

but it does look to be a landfall in a relatively sparsely populated part of the coast

True, but for the area that it's forecast to impact most, it's looking catastrophic.

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 5:50pm

MJohnston wrote: »

CNN - do we really need footage of Trump not giving a **** about any of this?

I think it's trump not knowing a **** about any of this.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 5:51pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I think it's trump not knowing a **** about any of this.

It's both things!

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 5:54pm

Trump:

"North and South Carolina are gonna get an awful lodda waddur"

10-10-2018 5:58pm

Eye almost onshore now.

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 6:00pm

Pressure is down to 919mb now. Utter madness

Imagine is this had more water to move over ?

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 6:12pm

Superior entertainment on CNN now :pac:

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 6:14pm

The lads on the weather channel and it looks utter nuts and I hope they get paid well for this.

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 6:15pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Superior entertainment on CNN now :pac:

Cuomo or Anderson coooer ?

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2018 6:16pm

Cuomo

Someone else now tho

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 6:17pm

Stephanie Abrams on the weather channel is trying to measure the wind.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-10-2018 6:17pm

Latest wind gusts in mph.

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 6:18pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Cuomo

Himself and Anderson cooper are like the hurricane angels of death. If you've decided to stay and see them arriving you know it's not good.

Itssoeasy · 10-10-2018 6:19pm

Ah poor Brooke Baldwin was even drafted in to cover this hurricane.

Hurricane Michael

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