Potential Satellite Fireball Tonight (Cancelled, Crashed 17:45)

2 Points. It is likelier to fall within the next 2 hours.

Viewing is probably not possible in the West/Northwest/Southwest anymore, high cloud has moved in.

The best opportunities will be in locations in Leinster and east Munster where the sky is clear to your south/south east and where it should be high enough in the sky to see. If they are too low they get 'hazed' out near the horizon.

That link is maxed out Calibos.

This one is not > http://www.satflare.com/track.html?q=phobos#MAP altitude now 124km

EDIT down to 112km. will flame up at around 100km when it sheds its fuel load so around Spain Morocco at that point. I'd expect a Pacific landing around 7pm our time, shucks.

It now has to do 2 full orbits of the earth before we get a chance to see it and when it reaches the 'dark side' of the planet it appears to climb a tad. However the sat will come into sunlight over the Pacific on each orbit which will accelerate the orbital decay as the hotter uppers exert a greater drag....and is therefore likely to crash into the Pacific/South America/Equatorial Atlantic before it gets near poor us.

To be really visible it has to do 3 orbits, this is most unlikely.

Bird trackers like Heavens Above, http://www.n2yo.com/ and http://www.satflare.com/ use a central database or two which are updated perhaps once a day. The track will disappear over the next 24 hours upon refresh.

I think one is a US government one and the other an amateur collaborative one. Can't remember the details.

Heavens Above and N2YO are Bird Trackers. Heavens Above is very good once you register your precise location with it. N2YO guesses, not always correctly. Low Earth Orbit birds are visible to the naked eye for some time after sunset and before sunrise. Spy sats like the Lacrosse series cross the sky every single night, sometimes 2 of them and are highly visible owing to their orbit and sheer size.

People living in rural areas can see these Birds with the naked eye on a clear night and frosty weather is great for it.

LEO Sats are 'behind' the earth half the time and when they come around to the sunny side their rather large solar panels orient themselves to the Sun to generate power while they can. Some are power hogs with very large panels and there is an interesting side effect.

So SatFlare tracks Flares given off by Sats as well as the sats themselves.The flare is visible on earth, Iridium Comsats are particularly good for flares, you see a deep purple flash in a dark sky if the sat is in a particular position relative both to YOU AND to the SUN. This is a schematic below and the sat will usually have 'gone over' you to the east by then.



Iridiums are large with lots of solar reflecting surfaces. Vey reliable.

Satflare logs different flare characteristics between different birds and predicts where the flare will occur from their trends over time. Trés Anorakage but no worse than looking at models in FI and winding up snow bunnys all the same. Over time one may infer whether a Bird is suffering from degradation in its power arrays and infer a decommissioning and constellation refresh....etc.

Great way of frightening the crap out of superstitious visitors if you can point to the sky during a barbie and tell them there soon will be a 'sign in the sky' ....followed by a bright light.

Another delightfully weird sight is a tumbling rocket motor because it appears to switch on and off around 3 times a second and they frighten the crap out of people as well if you say the Aliens will be over tonight...Oh Look there they are!!! The "Okean O" Rocket ( not the sat it launched ) is a good one to start with.

Corws are normally non observable ( read asleep) when Sats are in view and it generally would not be snowing at that time either. But a cold snap is great because you can hunt for birds between around 5 and 7 pm in January....but later at night and for much longer in high summer.

This neatly explains why Sponge Bob likes cold but not snow. I can't go sat hunting when it is snowing.

HTH . Mods please lock this up now.

Sponge Bob wrote: »

welcome to a mayen calender BBQ party i would post on the CT forum.

Mayan Calendar themed 'lights in the sky' would be a great one for this years Barbies. Best time for a Barbie is around April or August when the flares occur around 8-10pm. They can be a bit late at night in mid June...typically after midnight.

Meanwhile practise finding the flares on cold nights so you get the hang of it ....m'kay.

Easier in rural areas and villages where light pollution does not ruin the effect.

Objects and flares of Magnitude -3 to -1 are visible. -1 to + 2 (meaning the space station) unmissable. and -3 to -5 a bit harder in rural areas and not visible if there are any streetlights. -5 to -10 you need binoculars or telescopes.

Flares explained well below but sats OTHER than Iridiums can flare as well it is just that Iridiums are common, predictable and a jolly good start.

http://www.heavens-above.com/iridiumhelp.asp