Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

10000maniacs · 19-07-2019 11:18pm

Yeah, the BBC journalists are probably so sick of Brexit they want it sorted, deal or no deal. They have picked their horse and it ain't remain.

Strazdas · 19-07-2019 11:21pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

That annoying brexiter whinger Tom Harwood is back on Newsnight predicting that the EU are going to cave into British demands to scrap the backstop because Boris is leaving no deal on the table. Why do the BBC keep getting these guys on?

Given that Johnson's cabinet and negotiating team looks like it will be even worse and more inept than May's one, I would say the chances of the EU offering them any major concessions are absolutely zero.

Water John · 19-07-2019 11:28pm

Yeah, it looks like the UK will have left by the 31st Oct, but not really. Schrodinger cat comes to mind.

10000maniacs · 19-07-2019 11:47pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

David Davis's Brexit manifesto.
"Our trade will almost certainly continue with the EU on similar to current circumstances. In the highly improbable event that it will not, we can accommodate that with domestic policies using the money released by Brexit, the independence dividend.”

54and56 · 20-07-2019 12:12am

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

Please let him get the Chancellor job. Nothing bites harder or faster than financial reality.

Stop moaning ffs · 20-07-2019 10:08am

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Have they realized yet that they are very much the weak party in the negotiation?

Absolutely not. But it’s glaring how the language being used has changed and the declamatory statements of easy glorious victory are no longer present.

ancapailldorcha · 20-07-2019 10:12am

Topnotch, please read the charter before posting here again.

Call me Al · 20-07-2019 10:21am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Absolutely not. But it’s glaring how the language being used has changed and the declamatory statements of easy glorious victory are no longer present.

I think such was their lack of understanding and inflated level of self-belief they fully believed they'd get their cake when they started out in this process.

But when i hear David Davis spouting on about them needing to believe enough I think the penny has dropped with him. That's where the rhetoric has arrived at. Deep down he knows they are not in control of a destiny to anything positive. That choice is out of their hands. They can only pull the plug that brings them over a cliff.
He just can't bring himself to say it. British stiff upper lip and all that nonsense.

amacca · 20-07-2019 10:51am

Call me Al wrote: »

I think such was their lack of understanding and inflated level of self-belief they fully believed they'd get their cake when they started out in this process.

But when i hear David Davis spouting on about them needing to believe enough I think the penny has dropped with him. That's where the rhetoric has arrived at. Deep down he knows they are not in control of a destiny to anything positive. That choice is out of their hands. They can only pull the plug that brings them over a cliff.
He just can't bring himself to say it. British stiff upper lip and all that nonsense.

A significant proportion of the population might be that insular (hence brexit) but I'd have a hard time believing most of those politicians can't smell their own so to speak.

I think some might sniff personal opportunity in Brexit if they could precipitate it (either in a business sense or political ambition) but most of them realised from the start the position they were in ..... or should I say the position those less fortunate than them would be in, they'll never get the brunt of the economic consequences of brexit

It's a bubble where their personal pockets/lives don't stand to be impacted not one where their brains have completely ceased to function.

Sam Russell · 20-07-2019 10:57am

Strazdas wrote: »

Have a look at who Johnson is preparing to give a big cabinet job to :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

Looks like the cabinet announcement will have maximum comedy potential given some of the rumoured names

Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall.

If the new cabinet does not have places for remain minded Tories, they will find places for themselves in opposition from either the Gov bench or they will cross the floor of the house.

Reality means either the new PM realises this or the new PM will very soon become the previous PM.

The Iran business might actually intervene and give TM a little more time.

Strazdas · 20-07-2019 1:29pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall.

If the new cabinet does not have places for remain minded Tories, they will find places for themselves in opposition from either the Gov bench or they will cross the floor of the house.

Reality means either the new PM realises this or the new PM will very soon become the previous PM.

The Iran business might actually intervene and give TM a little more time.

The article speaks of David Davis as Foreign Secretary or Chancellor and a big Treasury job for Rees-Mogg.

A Shropshire Lad · 20-07-2019 1:43pm

Interestingly the markets are favouring a General Election to happen before Brexit happens
I wonder where a General Election in the UK would leave Brexit now. There would almost certainly be no overall majority party, so a coalition of chaos probably, with no nearer end in sight to the Brexit saga.

Joe_ Public · 20-07-2019 1:51pm

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Interestingly the markets are favouring a General Election to happen before Brexit happens
I wonder where a General Election in the UK would leave Brexit now. There would almost certainly be no overall majority party, so a coalition of chaos probably, with no nearer end in sight to the Brexit saga.

Early GE looks unavoidable to me anyway, unless Johnson has some trick up his sleeve which i doubt. Its hardly a great choice for the hard brexiteers, but what good choices do they have anyway? They're always telling us about Johnson the great campaigner who is the only one who can save the party, so lets see him get out there and earn his spurs.

Stop moaning ffs · 20-07-2019 1:51pm

Does it happen by default if there’s no majority ?

Strazdas · 20-07-2019 1:57pm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Does it happen by default if there’s no majority ?

Not by default, no....I believe a PM has to actually call a GE, it cannot happen unless he / she does so

Leroy42 · 20-07-2019 2:23pm

Johnsons cabinet will be made up entirely of Brexiteers. TM, badly, tried the both sides approach and the cabinet tore itself apart. All the key positions at the very least will be hard Brexiteers.

Mainly because that is where Johnson has got his support from.

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

Of course it won't fundamentally change anything but it gives Johnson the appearance of getting something whilst avoiding No Deal.

Zubeneschamali · 20-07-2019 2:29pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

You could look at it that way, or they could be motivating Remain/Soft Brexiters to get their act together and give Johnson the instant heave-ho.

Strazdas · 20-07-2019 2:33pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Johnsons cabinet will be made up entirely of Brexiteers. TM, badly, tried the both sides approach and the cabinet tore itself apart. All the key positions at the very least will be hard Brexiteers.

Mainly because that is where Johnson has got his support from.

I do find it rather fascinating the comments from EU leaders the last few days. Nothing actually any different from before, but leaving more room for interpretation. IMO the EU are seeing the political mood in the UK, seeing that Johnson basically promised to Brexit by 31 Oct but HoC also getting ready to fight No Deal, and are looking for a way to give Johnson a 'Win' that he can sell.

Of course it won't fundamentally change anything but it gives Johnson the appearance of getting something whilst avoiding No Deal.

A hard Brexit government may not be the nirvana that Leave voters imagine. They are rapidly running out of time and options and there might be no hiding place for a government full of hard Brexiteers.

beggars_bush · 20-07-2019 3:22pm

Labour under almost any other leader would have a great chance of ousting the Tories

Leroy42 · 20-07-2019 3:27pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You could look at it that way, or they could be motivating Remain/Soft Brexiters to get their act together and give Johnson the instant heave-ho.

What would be the point of that? Getting rid of Johnson won't change anything really, just like TM wasn't fundamentally the problem.

Strazdas wrote: »

A hard Brexit government may not be the nirvana that Leave voters imagine. They are rapidly running out of time and options and there might be no hiding place for a government full of hard Brexiteers.

But they do not see it like that. They feel that TM never really believed, was never truly on board and only sees the negatives. So getting the right people in place will sort everything out.

How many times have they said that people simply need to believe, need to be positive?

Leroy42 · 20-07-2019 3:29pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Labour under almost any other leader would have a great chance of ousting the Tories

Under any other leader would be trounching the Tories. It would be a repeat of the Blair lead in, basically the country would be crying out to be rid of them.

Stop moaning ffs · 20-07-2019 3:40pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Not by default, no....I believe a PM has to actually call a GE, it cannot happen unless he / she does so

Sorry I meant brexit.
Will it just happen on the 31st if they don’t have a majority govt or election?

Water John · 20-07-2019 3:53pm

Not if Parliament doesn't want No Deal to happen. Don't think HOC can order the PM but he would be nuts not to heed Parliament.

Strazdas · 20-07-2019 4:01pm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Sorry I meant brexit.
Will it just happen on the 31st if they don’t have a majority govt or election?

Oh Brexit itself.....well that is the default, yes. The only way an extension can happen is if the UK requests one, otherwise the UK automatically falls out on October 31.

Seth Brundle · 20-07-2019 4:01pm

Water John wrote: »

Not if Parliament doesn't want No Deal to happen. Don't think HOC can order the PM but he would be nuts not to heed Parliament.

Brexit will happen unless the UK asks and receives an extension or they revoke Art 50. Doesn't have that much to do with what parliament does or says.

Sam Russell · 20-07-2019 4:17pm

Strazdas wrote: »

A hard Brexit government may not be the nirvana that Leave voters imagine. They are rapidly running out of time and options and there might be no hiding place for a government full of hard Brexiteers.

And what will all those 'Remain' Tory MPs do when they have no say at cabinet?

My guess is "Heave ho!".

How many of them have had a quiet word in TM's ear?

20silkcut · 20-07-2019 4:22pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

How many times have they said that people simply need to believe, need to be positive?

Wasn’t that what leaders of the communist world used to say in the latter half of the 20th century.
Hopefully brexit doesn’t take as long as the communist myth took to be debunked.

Joe_ Public · 20-07-2019 4:42pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Brexit will happen unless the UK asks and receives an extension or they revoke Art 50. Doesn't have that much to do with what parliament does or says.

Well, parliament could politely dictate to the PM to request an extension or face the alternative of a vote of confidence so i'm not sure it doesnt have much to do with them to be honest. Problem with that is the "good reason" requirement for that extension to be granted, but thats something they'd have to work out when the time comes. Cant see its as simple as the clock just ticking down to no deal, lot to be played out between now and then.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 20-07-2019 5:41pm

To me the UK are looking like they are really over playing their hand right now.

Last week they were talking smack to China over Hong Kong. They are now getting into further issues with Iran. Not having a working withdrawal agreement over Brexit with France and Germany. Johnson calling our Taoiseach a Murphy. Where does it stop?

They really do have that colonial mindset drilled into them from childhood.

They are so heavily reliant on London's financial sector. Without it they will be a backwater. Yet they are behaving like a global superpower.

trellheim · 20-07-2019 6:50pm

An interesting article you may see being spun almost immediately the new PM is chosen - is the lack of time requiring an extension to be called for.

Some "important thing" will arise that demands an extension, and thus "leave on 31 October" will be consigned to the dustbin. The lack of hard press on this beyond Johnson's blustering is interesting in its own right. I am watching the Brexiteers - the hard ones - like a hawk on this, and it may well be the case that this is the way forward for them.

"Will you resign if the UK does not leave on 31 October" is not being answered

FartyBlartFast · 20-07-2019 7:00pm

If the UK ask for another extension, the EU need to tell them where to go.

I would bet every single last thing in this world that I own that, were another extension to be granted... Let say to Feb 1, 2020, that come late January 2020 the brits will use it to... Do absolutely sweet f'ck all, and will then ask for another.

We're the EU to continue to grant them, the brits would happily continue on like this for years, if not decades. It's time to call a spade a spade and kick them out on Oct 31st, if a deal has not been worked out, no matter what. It will hurt short term, but we are at a point where a line has to be drawn in the sand.

maynooth_rules · 20-07-2019 7:19pm

Such a sad thing to see in the UK is how rudderless Labour have been when presented with an open goal. Corbyn has been a bloody disgrace.

Bit cynical · 20-07-2019 7:57pm

FartyBlartFast wrote: »

If the UK ask for another extension, the EU need to tell them where to go.

I would bet every single last thing in this world that I own that, were another extension to be granted... Let say to Feb 1, 2020, that come late January 2020 the brits will use it to... Do absolutely sweet f'ck all, and will then ask for another.

We're the EU to continue to grant them, the brits would happily continue on like this for years, if not decades. It's time to call a spade a spade and kick them out on Oct 31st, if a deal has not been worked out, no matter what. It will hurt short term, but we are at a point where a line has to be drawn in the sand.

In fairness the EU have extended the offer of an extension recently.

Commission President: "I stand ready for further extension of the withdrawal date should more time be required for a good reason."

Headshot · 20-07-2019 7:58pm

I hope the UK asks for an extension, it would be a laughable climb down from Boris and the Brexiters will be out for blood

Spanish Eyes · 20-07-2019 8:04pm

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Such a sad thing to see in the UK is how rudderless Labour have been when presented with an open goal. Corbyn has been a bloody disgrace.

Correct, I just cannot understand it re the Corbyn led LP now.

But they do not represent my country.

Strazdas · 20-07-2019 8:20pm

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Such a sad thing to see in the UK is how rudderless Labour have been when presented with an open goal. Corbyn has been a bloody disgrace.

An utter disaster of a politician. A strong opposition leader would probably have brought Brexit down by this stage (given that it is an obvious shambles and a failed project). For Corbyn to go AWOL while this fiasco has been unfolding is mind boggling.

Spanish Eyes · 20-07-2019 8:25pm

Headshot wrote: »

I hope the UK asks for an extension, it would be a laughable climb down from Boris and the Brexiters will be out for blood

I think I read elsewhere (true or not) that EU has offered a five year hiatus for UK to plan for Leave.

Three plus years gone in the process already though.

A Dub in Glasgo · 20-07-2019 8:33pm

Bit cynical wrote: »

Commission President: "I stand ready for further extension of the withdrawal date should more time be required for a good reason."

That is the future Commission President who only starts after current Brexit date therefore it will be the current team and the EU27 governments who decide on any extension. I am sure she will be involved but it is not her decision

A Shropshire Lad · 20-07-2019 8:35pm

Dont underestimate Johnson. The buffoonery is a bit of an act at times anyway. One journalist who has been following his campaign trail noted how Boris would ruffle his hair before going on camera to give it that slightly unkempt look. His off the cuff remarks, which may seem spontanious at times, can be very deliberate.
He has done many things people said he couldnt do, like become a Tory mayor of London, a Labour city. He will almost certainly become prime minister, people said that was not going to happen either.

Bit cynical · 20-07-2019 8:40pm

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Dont underestimate Johnson. The buffoonery is a bit of an act at times anyway. One journalist who has been following his campaign trail noted how Boris would ruffle his hair before going on camera to give it that slightly unkempt look. His off the cuff remarks, which may seem spontanious at times, can be very deliberate.
He has done many things people said he couldnt do, like become a Tory mayor of London, a Labour city. He will almost certainly become prime minister, people said that was not going to happen either.

I think it was possibly the same journalist who said that Johnson would turn up at events, ask what the event was about, scribble two words on a piece of paper and then deliver an apparently flawless off the cuff speech. The only problem is that exactly the same speech with exactly the same pauses and mistakes would be delivered at the next event

Kermit.de.frog · 20-07-2019 10:28pm

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

reslfj · 20-07-2019 10:28pm

Bit cynical wrote: »

Commission President: "I stand ready for further extension of the withdrawal date should more time be required for a good reason."

Note UvdL said " required for a good reason"

The EU-Commission President is Juncker until Nov 1. Ursula von der Leyen - quoted above - is not in office before that.

But the main point is that an extension is not at all granted by the EU Commission, but by the EU Council - the 27 PMs - unanimously. I.e. all 27 countries must agree . and that is by no means given.

There seem to be two schools of strategy in Brussels and among the 27 EU27 members.

Extend and extend again until the UK ratifies the WA or revokes A50.
If we end up with a 'No Deal', let's get it over with ASAP and just wait until the UK 'comes home begging' for a deal (of which the WA text will be chapter one)

Point 1 is supported by the UK's total waste of the time provided by the current extension and the total delusion of Johnson and Hunt in relation to the WA.
Merkel on Brexit: 'The Withdrawal Agreement is the Withdrawal Agreement'.

Point 2 is supported by the the much smaller impact of a 'No Deal' Brexit on EU27 countries (excl Ireland before getting EU26 help) than the absolute disaster impact on the UK economy.
Currently pork has very high world market prices (+35/40% last 4-6 months due to Asian Swine Fever in China. The prices are expected to remain high for 2-4 years. The high prices on pork will also 'support' higher prices on other meat products. These higher prices will largely make farming in continental EU immune to a potential loss of some sale of agriculture products to the UK.
Several EU27 members have seen UK production moving the their countries - e.g. cars to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary - and this part of a 'No Deal' Brexit feels 'rather pleasant' for local politicians in these and other nearby countries.

Lars

reslfj · 20-07-2019 10:30pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

In the end it's the EU27 negotiating - not Ireland

Lars

Headshot · 20-07-2019 10:35pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

I'm looking forward to reading it, hopefully someone posts the article here

Leroy42 · 20-07-2019 10:39pm

Ireland, and the EU, have always been willing to compromise. The divorce bill amount, repayment terms, transition period, transition length, access to certain bodies, backstop.

Each and everyone of those is a compromise on the EUs part (and UK tbf).

Listening to all that is going on I am more and more convinced that Brexit will happen by 31 Oct. The EU knows it serves no purpose putting Johnson under possible no confidence territory.

So they will compromise, in as much as changing the wording in the PD can be seen as such. Johnson will claim a victory, but with no time to review it he pushes it to the HoC and Tory and Labour are forced to vote in favour or risk Revoke.

Johnson delivers and then the real work of actually getting back closer happens behind closed doors.

Bit cynical · 20-07-2019 10:45pm

reslfj wrote: »

In the end it's the EU27 negotiating - not Ireland

Lars

But the other countries of the EU27 are standing behind Ireland, are they not?

J Mysterio · 20-07-2019 11:01pm

Boris Johnsons diplomacy highlighted again today

Another controversy has erupted after Boris Johnson - who looks set to become British prime minister next week - allegedly made remarks asking why the Taoiseach "isn't called Murphy like all the rest of them".

The comments about Taoiseach Leo Varadkar are said to have been made while Mr Johnson was foreign secretary and are among a series of insults about other EU leaders. Yesterday, UK Labour peer Andrew Adonis said the comments are "deeply depressing" and argued they make Mr Johnson "profoundly unsuitable" to get the keys of 10 Downing Street.

The comments were revealed by 'Financial Times' journalist Philip Stephens who wrote that "such jibes find a way back to foreign capitals".

The article claimed that while he was at the Foreign Office, Mr Johnson was "heard to muse as to whether Chancellor Angela Merkel had served in East Germany's Stasi secret police".

It added that "French President Emmanuel Macron was a 'jumped-up Napoleon'," and "As for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, 'why isn't he called Murphy like all the rest of them?'"

Mr Johnson has a well-documented history of off-colour or controversial remarks. He was criticised last year for saying Muslim women wearing burkas "look like letter boxes" and he reportedly described the French as "turds".

Independent

reslfj · 20-07-2019 11:01pm

Bit cynical wrote: »

But the other countries of the EU27 are standing behind Ireland, are they not?

It may look that way

But the basic fact is that Ireland has placed itself in front of the collective interests of all the EU27.

As long as Ireland is protecting its fair and vital interests and is acting politically in ways deemed rational, it will very much find that the EU27 is standing behind it.

But don't for a second believe that Ireland is calling the shots.

Lars

Enzokk · 20-07-2019 11:24pm

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Dont underestimate Johnson. The buffoonery is a bit of an act at times anyway. One journalist who has been following his campaign trail noted how Boris would ruffle his hair before going on camera to give it that slightly unkempt look. His off the cuff remarks, which may seem spontanious at times, can be very deliberate.
He has done many things people said he couldnt do, like become a Tory mayor of London, a Labour city. He will almost certainly become prime minister, people said that was not going to happen either.

I don't know how smart he is or intelligent, but I know he has promised they will leave on the 31st October, with a deal or without. If he doesn't deliver Brexit the Tories are done as a Party for the next election as most of their support will bleed to the Brexit Party, and they will implement a scorched earth policy to the UK to make Brexit happen.

I don't know how anyone with a few brain cells would corner themselves in a situation like this, especially considering he only has a majority of 3 in the HoC as well.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Simon Coveney has written an article in the Sunday Times indicating Ireland is prepared to compromise according to the UK version of the paper.

I wonder how different it will be from this article that was published on Friday.

Withdrawal Agreement not up for renegotiation, says Tánaiste

Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney has said that the EU's position on the Withdrawal Agreement remains unchanged.

He was speaking to reporters following a meeting Michel Barnier, the EU's Chief negotiator. "The Withdrawal Agreement is not up for re-negotiation and both Michel Barnier and I were very clear on that today," he said.

Mr Coveney said that the EU wanted to avoid a no-deal Brexit, but that this was now a matter for the next British Prime Minister.

Most likely, without having read the article, it will be the same as Merkel said that the EU would compromise on the Political Declaration to ensure no-deal doesn't happen. But the PD is not binding so they can say what they want in it, if there is a GE and a new government they will not be bound by what is in the PD, but the WA will be binding.

fly_agaric · 20-07-2019 11:52pm

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

He has done many things people said he couldnt do, like become a Tory mayor of London, a Labour city. He will almost certainly become prime minister, people said that was not going to happen either.

True. A very weird situation has developed in the UK though.
I don't think someone like that could become PM in "normal" times.
He's getting the job now entirely because of Brexit, and by promising the sun moon & stars to Brexit supporters (MPs and members) in the Conservatives with 0 evidence any of it can be delivered.

I was thinking today the parliament somehow managing to intervene & obstruct no-deal Brexit before Oct 31st (while he does nothing) gets him off the hook.

He could then call general election (maybe request a short extension from EU to hold it?) and say his hands were tied - he had to go to the people for a mandate otherwise the obstreperous MPs would have blocked the Holy Brexit. Maybe that's his hope?

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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