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22nd March 2012 - Major Earthquake event maybe? ?
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »I was looking at some of these concepts a year ago and have had an interest in earthquake prediction for all the years I've done my weather research, although t.b.h. I have never felt that specific earthquake prediction would necessarily be possible, just the sort of slight changes in background probability that my data may suggest. I don't really know how useful that could be to anyone, to hear that the next six weeks have a somewhat enhanced risk of a major earthquake.
I've been sketching out diagrams of this mass equator concept but not really finding anything very organized to encourage further study.
The relationship with solar activity is something that I did post about before, if not on boards then definitely on Net-weather. The basic idea is sketched out above, that regular solar activity tends to keep pace with the nearly 10 year cycle of Jupiter-Saturn alignments, then drifts off this pace when it weakens. The period then lengthens from 10 to more like 12 years, suggesting that the J-S interaction ceases but Jupiter still modulates what is left of the activity. The alternating nature of oppositions same and alternate sides of the Sun corresponds to the Hale cycle of alternating polarity, although not in any obvious physical cause and effect. When you sketch the mass equator and allow it to follow the two major planets but curved in towards the Sun, you realize that it has to perform some kind of re-set between alignments. This seems similar to what happens to sunspot groups over the cycles. I have always reached a dead end with the geometry aspects of all this, but it seems unlikely (to me) that the correlation is random especially when it apparently extends well back before the Maunder.
Meanwhile the earthquake frequency apparently follows a vaguely similar modulation but while the solar cycle during active decades fits the paradigm with an amplitude of about 4:1 the earthquake frequency only shifts by about 1.5 to 1.
You are looking at the wrong planet(s),try Venus instead which has no appreciable spherical deviation nor tectonic activity other than volcanism.The Earth has a 26 mile deviation between equatorial and polar diameters and a very active fractured crust .
The biggest clue is the symmetrical generation of crust either side of the Mid Atlantic Ridge indicating a lag/advance mechanism of differential rotation so although astronomical inputs are essential for putting the pieces together with our planet's geological evolution,they are very much restricted to comparisons rather than direct influences.
All the same,nice try anyway but visible processes take precedence over speculative/predictive ones.0 -
There was a 7.1 on Sunday in Chile
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-03-25/Chile-earthquake/53777578/1
Does that count and can we set the 188 day clock again ?0 -
8.6 quake fairly significant!0
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Updated chart to include today's 8.6 near Sumatra. Look for bold 12 about three-quarters of the way down the chart, in line that includes 2011. Have included some new ideas at the bottom of the chart.
YEARS ...........JOS.............................JCS...............................JOS
1836.1919.2002 .................................|....02....................3703
1765.1848.1931 ...............31...............|......31........................
1777.1860.1943 .................43........43..|43................43.....4444
1789.1872.1955 ............72..................|.................................
1801.1884.1967 .................................|.................................
1813.1896.1979 .............79..........96...|.................................
1825.1908.1991 ................................|......................08........
1837.1920.2003 ...................03..........|...03..........03.20.......04
1766.1849.1932 ......................32.......|...........66....32........33.
1778.1861.1944 61.............................|..................44............
1790.1873.1956 ................................|................................57
1802.1885.1968 .......68....................68.............02............69..
1814.1897.1980 ....................97.........|.....80...80....................
1826.1909.1992 .............................92|.................................
1838.1921.2004 ................................|........1755....04.............
1767.1850.1933 33.............................|............33....34............
1779.1862.1945 .................................|........45...............8046.
1791.1874.1957 .................................|..........57....................
1803.1886.1969 .............69........86......|.................................
1815.1898.1981 .................................|.................................
1827.1910.1993 ..................93........93.|.........11.94...11..........
1839.1922.2005 .05.............................|.....22.....23..23......06..
1768.1851.1934 .................................|.................................
1780.1863.1946 ...........46......46..........|.......46.......................
1792.1875.1958 ..............58................|...............................59
1804.1887.1970 ......70........70.............|.................................
1816.1899.1982 ....................99..........|......82........................
1828.1911.1994 .....9411....................94....1194.95...................
1840.1923.2006 ....................23.......06|......07................07.....
1769.1852.1935 .................................|....35..........................
1781.1864.1947 .................................|.................................
1793.1876.1959 .............59.................|............60..........7760..
1805.1888.1971 ...........71.88...............|.................................
1817.1900.1983 ....................00.........83.................................
1829.1912.1995 ........95...12..95..95.....|.........96.....................
1841.1924.2007 ........07..07........07..07|.........................08.....
1770.1853.1936 ...70...........................|.................................
1782,1865.1948 ..................................|.........83.-- 83.............
1794.1877.1960 ..................................|.................................
1806,1889.1972 ..................................|.................................
1818.1901.1984 ..................................|..............8502.............
1830.1913.1996 ....................96...........|.................................
1842,1925,2008 ...................08..1759....|.................................
1771.1854.1937 ............................54...|.55.............................
1783,1866.1949 .49...49...49.......49.......|...............................50
1795.1878.1961 ..................................|.................................
1807,1890.1973 ..................................|.................................
1819.1902.1985 ........85........02............|..........86....................
1831.1914.1997 ..............97........15......|.........................98.....
1843,1926,2009 ...09...................10......|10.27.........27.........10.
1772.1855.1938 ................3855..39.......|.......................73.......
1784,1867.1950 ..................................|.......68.................68...
1796.1879.1962 .............................97*|................63..............
1808,1891.1974 ..........91..............75....|.................................
1820.1903.1986 ..................................|.................................
1832.1915.1998 ..................................|...................99..99......
1844.1927.2010 .............................11..|.......28.......................
1773.1856.1939 ...........39..57...............|.................................
1785,1868.1951 ..................................|...............................52
1797.1880.1963 .63......................6481.|.................................
1809,1892.1975 ..................7610..........|..............76...76.........
1821.1904.1987 ......87.................8805.|..............05*......05.....
1833.1916.1999 .....33.........................|00...........................00*
1845.1928.2011 ...........................12...|......29....................29..
1774.1857.1940 .40.....57.................41|.................................
1786,1869.1952 .....................53....53..|.........53..................53
1798.1881.1964 ......81.....65*..............|.................................
1810.1893.1976 .76....................77......|............................11..
1822.1905.1988 ...88.06.............06.......|.........06.........06.........
1834.1917.2000 .........01.....................01................18.............
1846,1929,2012 ........................47.....|.30..............................
1775.1858.1941 ................................|..........................42....
1787.1870.1953 ...............54..............|.................................
1799.1882.1965 ...............66..............|................66.......66....
1811.1894.1977 .......12..................78.|.........78.....................
1823.1906.1989 .........................90....90...............................
(these years have no oppositions and earth time is contained in chart above)
1835.1918.2001 ................................|.................................
1764.1847.1930 ................................|.................................
1776.1859.1942 ................................|.................................
1788.1871.1954 ................................|.................................
1800.1883.1966 ................................|.................................
1812.1895.1978 ................................|.................................
1824.1907.1990 ................................|.................................
As of today it is 32 days to the "JCS" time point which is marked by the vertical line in mid-chart. Earth is in opposition with Saturn on 15 April. There could be some potential in that concept discussed earlier of a curved "mass equator" that always runs close to positions of Jupiter, Sun and Saturn. The analysis would have to be empirical based on different weights in the system for each component. A straight line from Jupiter to Saturn at present would have remained beyond earth orbit at closest approach in February, but in a curved system this equator would intersect earth orbit (roughly speaking since we are dealing with slight displacements in a third dimension due to orbital plane inclinations) somewhere not too far from today. Notice in the chart there is an entry for 1953 at a similar position, and this marks the last point where Jupiter and Saturn were similar in orbital positions. In 1941 and 2000 (two other earthquake points marked) the mass equator would have been close to the JCS time since in those two years Saturn would have been in the same sector as Jupiter (in other words, Jupiter was passing Saturn in those cases, and both were in the November sector of the solar system if you extend earth's time frame outward.)0 -
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This re-ordered time chart places each entry in the 20-year cycle of Jupiter-Saturn relative orientation. The first set of entries include all years where Jupiter is opposite Saturn in the solar system ... see earlier entries for the time series explanation (1752, 72, 92, 1802, 22, 41, 61 ... 1981, 2000) and from that point on, the chart then includes all other data in the appropriate year of the 20-year cycle. Year 11 of the cycle is the timing for Jupiter passing Saturn. The point is to analyze whether or not this displacement adds any further organization to what was already observed about the earthquakes clustering near alignments of Jupiter-earth-Sun.
Instead of year numbers I have just placed an X for each case.
YEARS ...........JOS.............................JCS...............................JOS
YEAR 01 eg2010 .......xxxx.x......xx.....xx...xxx.......x.........x....
YEAR 02 eg2011 ............xx.....x......x.|...................x...........x.
YEAR 03 eg2012 x..x...............x.....xxx|........x...x.........x...xx.
YEAR 04 eg1993 ...............x.x........xx.|................x................
YEAR 05 eg1994 .....x...........x....xx....x..xx..x..x....................
YEAR 06 eg1995 .x.....x........x.x..x....xx............x.x....x...........
YEAR 07 eg1996 ..........x...x....xxx.x...|........xx...............xx...x
YEAR 08 eg1997 ..............xxx...x...x..|.........x......x.........x....
YEAR 09 eg1998 ...........xxx..xxx.......|................................x
YEAR 10 eg1999 ..................x.........|.....x....xx...xxx......x...
YEAR 11 eg2000 x...x...........x........xx|.x.........x.................xx
YEAR 12 eg2001 .........x.....................x.....xx.........x......x......
YEAR 13 eg2002 .x..............xx........x.x.x..x.....xxxx..x...........
YEAR 14 eg2003 ..................x....x.....|..x............xx.........xxx
YEAR 15 eg2004 ........x...xx........x.....|.........xxxxxx......x..x.
YEAR 16 eg2005 .x....x.....x.....x.x......|........x.x......x..x..x.x.
YEAR 17 eg2006 ......x...x........xx.....x|......xx.......x..........x...
YEAR 18 eg2007 ..xx.x...x.x.........xxxx|.....xxx...........x...xx..
YEAR 19 eg2008 .x....x...xx...x...x......|.....x...................xxx.x.
YEAR 20 eg2009 .xx.x.........x............|.x..........................x.x
The above chart reveals a clustering effect within the J-year time frame which averages 399 days. This can be observed by locating a cluster to the right of the JCS vertical (about 2-3 months after it) in years 13 to 15 then heading down the chart this diagonal moves closer to the JCS vertical, reappears near it in year 1 (top of chart) and continues to move off to the left (moving further ahead of JCS time) ... just a reminder that JCS means Jupiter in conjunction with (or behind) the Sun. This diagonal fades out towards years 7-9 as Jupiter approaches alignment with Saturn. The diagonal could represent a clustering near a shifting mass equator that the earth would encounter a bit earlier each year relative to the J-year (but later in earth time). This may be close to the originally posted 188 day period at least for the part of the 20-year cycle where it is significant (note the diagonal represents two of these intervals or a 376-day cycle although on the chart it comes closer to being 380 days). It could also be postulated that the diagonal is a separate or independent earth-Saturn gravitational resonance which would show up as a diagonal of slightly greater slope (the difference would suggest to me that it's a combined or solar-system mass equator resonance). Why does it appear to fade out towards years when Jupiter and Saturn are aligned? Perhaps because the weight components for the outer planets are high enough that the centre of mass shifts beyond earth orbit and a more stable situation develops.
This diagonal in the chart is far from dominant as there tends to be a rich scattering of earthquakes about a half-J-year removed from the diagonal between years 14 and 20 and extending into year 1. This scattering has less of an obvious alignment to the chart. Given the number of cycles of 20 years represented, it seems anomalous how few earthquakes occur from JCS of year 9 through most of year 10 until near its fourth quarter, which represents the time where Jupiter is approaching Saturn (in terms of sectors in space).0
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