The Iceland Volcano Thread

Iancar29 wrote: »

Booking flights to Iceland .... gets camera gear ready :rolleyes: :pac:

Meh, if anything happens it'll be a small puff of steam in the grand scheme of things. People really only get excited if it's a very large eruption (VEI 5+).

That's why I love Ireland. No nasty weather and no chance of being evaporated by magma.

A webcam has been set up facing Bárðarbunga. The volcano is 30km away.


http://vedur2.mogt.is/grimsfjall/webcam/

Impressive looking horizontal movement on the GPS, but hardly any vertical movement. Maybe an indication that if an eruption does happen, it'll likely be a fissure event.

http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/~sigrun/DYNC_3mrap.png

modelled plume distribution here

(hypothetical of course....)

Nice article from Met Eireann on it published this evening....
Activity at Bárðarbunga Volcano
21 August 2014

Iceland is the most seismically active country in Europe, bisected by the mid-Atlantic ridge, which is a divergent feature separating the Eurasian and the North American tectonic plates. Earthquakes and volcanic activity are a constant feature of Icelandic life. The most significant recent volcanic eruptions were those of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010, which produced an ash cloud that closed down much of Europe’s airspace for a number of days, and Grimsvötn in May 2011, the ash from which was also disruptive of air traffic, but to a much lesser extent. Grimsvötn lies under the thick ice of Europe’s largest glacier, Vatnajökull, and it is another volcano under the same ice sheet, called Bárðarbunga, which has shown significant activity in recent days and has put the aviation authorities of Europe into a state of alert.

Since Saturday August 16th some thousands of earthquakes have been detected at Bárðarbunga by the earthquake monitoring network of the Icelandic Met Office (IMO), and the earthquakes continue to occur at an approximate rate of 1000/day (see the webpage at http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ for more detail and the latest reports). Most of these earthquakes measure between 1 and 2 on the Richter Scale, but there have been a few exceeding 3 and one tremor recorded at 4.5. The Richter Scale is logarithmic, meaning that a tremor measuring 4 is ten times more powerful than a tremor recorded as 3. As of Thursday August 21st there have been no signs of magma migrating towards the surface, which would be a necessary precursor to an eruption, but nevertheless the IMO has issued an Orange-level aviation warning due to the increased risk. As the volcano is situated beneath an ice cap, an eruption could result in an ash plume which may have consequences for both aviation and health.

Wind forecast data supplied by Met Éireann are used as input to an air quality model developed by the Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies at NUI Galway. The ash forecasting system was developed by the Volcanic Ash Strategic Team funded by the European Space Agency. They have produced a simulation of a hypothetical eruption from Bárðarbunga which can be seen online at:
http://www.macehead.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=129:spatialplume&catid=97:volcano&Itemid=83

This simulation is updated every afternoon with the latest wind forecast data, and illustrates the track which an ash cloud might take should the volcano actually erupt. In the event of an eruption, this model will be used in conjunction with the official guidance from the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) which is run by the UK Met Office on behalf of the World Meteorological Organisation.

Interesting cloud simulation (for anyone who didn't click the link above!). Appears to auto-update.

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Nice article from Met Eireann on it published this evening....
Activity at Bárðarbunga Volcano
21 August 2014

Activity at Bárðarbunga Volcano

Iceland is the most seismically active country in Europe, bisected by the mid-Atlantic ridge, which is a divergent feature separating the Eurasian and the North American tectonic plates. Earthquakes and volcanic activity are a constant feature of Icelandic life. The most significant recent volcanic eruptions were those of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010, which produced an ash cloud that closed down much of Europe’s airspace for a number of days, and Grimsvötn in May 2011, the ash from which was also disruptive of air traffic, but to a much lesser extent. Grimsvötn lies under the thick ice of Europe’s largest glacier, Vatnajökull, and it is another volcano under the same ice sheet, called Bárðarbunga, which has shown significant activity in recent days and has put the aviation authorities of Europe into a state of alert.

Since Saturday August 16th some thousands of earthquakes have been detected at Bárðarbunga by the earthquake monitoring network of the Icelandic Met Office (IMO), and the earthquakes continue to occur at an approximate rate of 1000/day (see the webpage at http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ for more detail and the latest reports). Most of these earthquakes measure between 1 and 2 on the Richter Scale, but there have been a few exceeding 3 and one tremor recorded at 4.5. The Richter Scale is logarithmic, meaning that a tremor measuring 4 is ten times more powerful than a tremor recorded as 3. As of Thursday August 21st there have been no signs of magma migrating towards the surface, which would be a necessary precursor to an eruption, but nevertheless the IMO has issued an Orange-level aviation warning due to the increased risk. As the volcano is situated beneath an ice cap, an eruption could result in an ash plume which may have consequences for both aviation and health.

Wind forecast data supplied by Met Éireann are used as input to an air quality model developed by the Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies at NUI Galway. The ash forecasting system was developed by the Volcanic Ash Strategic Team funded by the European Space Agency. They have produced a simulation of a hypothetical eruption from Bárðarbunga which can be seen online at:
http://www.macehead.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=129:spatialplume&catid=97:volcano&Itemid=83

This simulation is updated every afternoon with the latest wind forecast data, and illustrates the track which an ash cloud might take should the volcano actually erupt. In the event of an eruption, this model will be used in conjunction with the official guidance from the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) which is run by the UK Met Office on behalf of the World Meteorological Organisation.

g0g wrote: »

Interesting cloud simulation (for anyone who didn't click the link above!). Appears to auto-update.

it's a simulation of an ash plume not a cloud

tphase wrote: »

it's a simulation of an ash plume not a cloud

Thanks Mr Pedantic! This is why I rarely post on the weather forum because I mostly get it wrong! Can it not be referred to as an "ash cloud"?

hmmm wrote: »

Any idea what level of ash is sufficient to ground flights?

> 4mg / m^3 (the second tier on the colour chart on that map, 2nd lightest grey)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_ash_and_aviation_safety

To minimise further disruption that this and other volcanic eruptions could cause, the CAA created a new category of restricted airspace called a Time Limited Zone.[7] Airspace categorised as TLZ is similar to airspace under severe weather conditions, in that restrictions should be of a short duration. However, a key difference with TLZ airspace is that airlines must produce certificates of compliance for aircraft they want to enter these areas. Any airspace where ash density exceeds 4 mg per cubic metre is prohibited airspace

Code Red ?

http://en.vedur.is/weather/aviation/volcanic-hazards/

I tried to check one of the webcams, but it's been flattened by the traffic.