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Probability Question

  • 02-01-2021 3:27pm
    #1
    Hercule Poirot
    Registered Users Posts: 4,231 ✭✭✭


    I'm trying to calculate the probability of getting a player I want in a football game I'm playing online (PES 2020)

    There are three groups of players: black, gold and silver - the player I want is in the black group and it states there's a 20% chance of getting a black group player

    The black group contains 14 players, but there's only one that I want - I make this a 7% chance of getting that player, if it's one from the black group

    I want work out how to calculate the overall probability of getting that one player than I want - it's probably something obvious that I'm missing but any help would be appreciated

    I hope I've explained everything properly but feel free to ask questions if there's something that needs to be clarified

    Thanks


Comments

  • #2
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You have to multiply the probabilities so it'll be 0.2 * 1/14 so 1/70.
    (Assuming each player within a group is equally likely)


  • #3
    Dave0301
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Dave0301


    I have it as a 1.4% chance of getting the player that you want.

    20% chance of getting a black group player (or 0.2)

    14% chance of getting the player you want (or 0.071)

    Therefore:

    P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
    = 0.2 × 0.071
    = 0.0142
    = 1.42%

    However, if you get more players per pack, or multiple players across different packs then it will change.

    I think I have done that right, but if not, someone will hopefully correct it!


  • #4
    Hercule Poirot
    Registered Users Posts: 4,231 ✭✭✭Hercule Poirot


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    You have to multiply the probabilities so it'll be 0.2 * 1/14 so 1/70.
    (Assuming each player within a group is equally likely)

    Ah sweet, I don't know if each player in the group is equally likely but I assume they are - thanks


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