The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

Min · 09-11-2010 5:30pm

Cionád wrote: »

If that pattern was to materialise would it be considerably stronger than Sunday/Monday for the bulk of the island, or just the North?

This in my opinion looks like a proper storm and like all bad storms it comes without the hype.

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 5:31pm

This storm has been given the name Carmen.

mickger844posts · 09-11-2010 5:33pm

This is looking like a storm and not what we had at the weekend. Batten down the hatches if this comes off :eek:

oterra · 09-11-2010 5:33pm

Min wrote: »

I don't get the fascination with wind and wanting the speeds increased when it only leads to deaths, trees falling after all the rain, side winds when driving, I can't understand when some people want the storm to get worse.

Can I wish a bad storm on all those who want it and may they remember it with no electricity for a few days and the roofs blown off their houses. They want it bad.

OK, I do.

I don't imagine for a minute that anyone here wishes death and distruction on any family. The truth is storms do what storms do. With these discussion threads it's purely the science people are interested in. It's great to be able to understand how these storms develop and with the expertise on here the general public that want to understand can learn alot. The storms are tracked here and people do get excited about pattern and model changes.

Winger_PL · 09-11-2010 5:38pm

I can understand the lack of warnings/media interest in Ireland given the casual outcome of the last weekend's system, but I don't get why I don't see any early warnings on the Met Office UK website. Absolutely nothing despite the following issuing criteria: "These are issued when the Met Office has 60% or greater confidence that severe weather is expected in the next few days."

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 5:39pm

Cionád wrote: »

If that pattern was to materialise would it be considerably stronger than Sunday/Monday for the bulk of the island, or just the North?

Based on just this (GFS) model (which is subject to change!) there would be widespread gusts inland of 100kph. Higher in exposed/coastal areas.

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 5:59pm

I don't have access to this viewer (it's from a subscription service) so I cannot show the estimated gusts for the west/northwest which I imagine would be higher, but anyway these are the estimated gusts for later when the storm would be affecting the east more.

TheInquisitor · 09-11-2010 6:04pm

And the UKMO brings the storm a tinsy tiny bit more south again....

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 6:09pm

Good agreement between the UKMO, NAE and GFS.

ECM 12Z should be interesting.

Sierra Oscar · 09-11-2010 6:10pm

Will there be much rainfall generated over Ireland by this system, or is it predominately a "wind event"?

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 6:13pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Will there be much rainfall generated over Ireland by this system, or is it predominately a "wind event"?

Rainfall should be less than last Sunday and faster to clear, thankfully.

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 6:17pm

Latest Met Eireann outlook :

Thursday: A windy, showery morning, but becoming extremely windy for the afternoon and evening and much of the night. Gale force westerly winds will give gusts of 90 to 110 km/h generally, but up to 130km/h in the northwest of the country.

Su Campu · 09-11-2010 6:28pm

Here's the 925hPa wind forecast and height (06Z GFS), which will give an idea of the winds just a couple of hundred metres above sea level (the actual height in dm is indicated by the numbers - add a zero to get it in metres). Obviously these winds are closest to the surface in northern areas. We should see these winds brought to the surface in the form of gusts. Near Belmullet we can see 70kts at about 460m (1,500ft) above sea level. Near Malin Head, 65kts at about 360m (1,200ft), so we could imagine gusts of 65-70kts in the northwest, with more on higher elevations.

Down south, probably more like 50kts.

Note, if the 12Z run is an upgrade on this, then we could add a few knots to those figures.

Maybe MT could expand further on this as I'm not really sure what altitude winds he would use in forecasting gusts - this is just my guesswork.

TheMilkyPirate · 09-11-2010 6:29pm

I remember about 4 maybe 5? years ago there was a storm and down on wexford quay it was crazy standin on the bridge gettin blown over and the waves crashin up on to the marina, I don't know a whole lot but i remember it was late november early december when it happened anyone be able get a chart for that night??

And will thursday resemble it in anyway?

Thanks

nacho libre · 09-11-2010 6:30pm

so then gusts of up to 80mph in the northwest. you can probably add about 10 mph on to that for parts of western Scotland.
hopefully the ecmwf chart won't be a downgrade.

it's striking how often this happens- all eyes are focused on a potential big storm only for another, more dangerous, one to creep up on us a few days later.

nacho libre · 09-11-2010 6:48pm

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 7:03pm

nacho libre wrote: »

27/9/10 ?

Thursday's storm is still west of Greenland.

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 7:11pm

Looking at the 12Z GFS ensembles for Dublin, the operational had slightly higher pressure than the mean and control. No sign of a downgrade imminent.

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 7:16pm

12Z ECM :

Hooter23 · 09-11-2010 7:19pm

Is that a downgrade r upgrade it looks a bit closer I'm not sure

TheInquisitor · 09-11-2010 7:20pm

Damn you maq you were mere seconds faster than me!!

Anyway following on from the chart posted above the 72 hours chart shows the low moving away reasonably quickly and as far as i can see a lot faster than before so the time with strong winds may be much more short lived than the up the 8 hours predicted

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 7:26pm

12Z ECM looks more intense than the GFS to me?

Looks a bit further south.

TheInquisitor · 09-11-2010 7:26pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Is that a downgrade r upgrade it looks a bit closer I'm not sure

The only thing about it is the core is getting a bit of a flabby centre to it. This may help more of the country get strong winds. Also all runs have been very consistent with only slight movements southward. I must say assuming the storm pans out something like this the models will have done very well predicting the Monday of the small wind and this storm. They might even be due a little bit of credit for quite good accuracy for medium term forecasts

Min · 09-11-2010 7:29pm

oterra wrote: »

I don't imagine for a minute that anyone here wishes death and distruction on any family. The truth is storms do what storms do. With these discussion threads it's purely the science people are interested in. It's great to be able to understand how these storms develop and with the expertise on here the general public that want to understand can learn alot. The storms are tracked here and people do get excited about pattern and model changes.

Science is not based on hope. Some people hope the storm will be worse. Lets not pretend it is all science, people here hope the storm gets an upgrade, I hope it gets a downgrade, we are not basing hope on science but on personal wishes.
I know no one wants any death or destruction but depending on how the storm developed it either raises or lowers the risk and I am simply taking that into account.

I love the science and the various weather models that give indications of what is to come, weather is weather, some want the storm to be upgraded which means the dangers are higher, others want to see a downgrade, it is all weather.

It is no harm for a voice to be in the wilderness here, at least the forum will look a bit balanced, as a weather lover it doesn't have to mean we all want to see a storm upgraded everytime the next weather model comes out to show her wares.

TheInquisitor · 09-11-2010 7:29pm

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM looks more intense than the GFS to me?

Ya ECM definitely looks like its another 20-30miles south. You can see the light blue on the GFS on the south of the country on the ECM its gone to dark blue.

Hooter23 · 09-11-2010 7:53pm

Min wrote: »

Science is not based on hope. Some people hope the storm will be worse. Lets not pretend it is all science, people here hope the storm gets an upgrade, I hope it gets a downgrade, we are not basing hope on science but on personal wishes.
I know no one wants any death or destruction but depending on how the storm developed it either raises or lowers the risk and I am simply taking that into account.

I love the science and the various weather models that give indications of what is to come, weather is weather, some want the storm to be upgraded which means the dangers are higher, others want to see a downgrade, it is all weather.

It is no harm for a voice to be in the wilderness here, at least the forum will look a bit balanced, as a weather lover it doesn't have to mean we all want to see a storm upgraded everytime the next weather model comes out to show her wares.

Stop talking rubbish:mad: you said you would prefer snow as it would be safer well what about the homeless and the elderly I mean more people die cause of the cold every year than storms it just dosnt make the news as it's less dramatic enough said:p:pac:

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 7:54pm

Might be time to remove the "potentially" from the thread title.

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 7:59pm

Wow, they really downplayed that on the TV forecast. Winds "perhaps even touching gale force" on the West coast.

Rougies · 09-11-2010 8:02pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Wow, they really downplayed that on the TV forecast. Winds "perhaps even touching gale force" on the West coast.

pre-prepared forecast maybe?

as in not up to date with the ECM/GFS becuase they're all gone home?

Hooter23 · 09-11-2010 8:02pm

Really I missed it what charts are they looking at lol

maybe that's a good thing because every time they say something like that it turns out much more intense

isle of man · 09-11-2010 8:10pm

Going to ask the quastion again.

what sort of wind speeds can i be looking at,
worse or less than sun/mon storm.

and what direction are they heading.

thanks you guys

Rougies · 09-11-2010 8:18pm

isle of man wrote: »

Going to ask the quastion again.

what sort of wind speeds can i be looking at,
worse or less than sun/mon storm.

and what direction are they heading.

thanks you guys

In short, very high wind speeds. In fact the Isle of Man is going to get battered by this one if this evenings charts come off! Look at the colour codes at the bottom for windspeed, and that's just mean speeds, not gusts :eek: So yeah, worse than the sun/mon storm.

They're westerly winds for the Isle of Man in this chart btw.

isle of man · 09-11-2010 8:21pm

hmm that stops at 60kts.
not looking good

skipz · 09-11-2010 8:24pm

TheInquisitor wrote: »

The only thing about it is the core is getting a bit of a flabby centre to it. This may help more of the country get strong winds.

Spoken like a true weather enthusiast.
Because thats what the country needs alright!:D

Su Campu · 09-11-2010 8:26pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Wow, they really downplayed that on the TV forecast. Winds "perhaps even touching gale force" on the West coast.

Are you talking about Siobhan? She said "extremely windy" with "gale to storm force" winds in the west and north. And Pat Clarke said the same on the radio at 17:55. That'd be pretty on the mark if you ask me!

Redsunset · 09-11-2010 8:43pm

Probably mentioned but a strong jet too for Thursday looks like.

Pangea · 09-11-2010 9:02pm

Met eireann said 130km winds for the north west on thursday, that must be more than the weekends so called storm is it?

TheInquisitor · 09-11-2010 9:15pm

I stole this from the netweather forum. Gives an idea of winds we can expect on Thursday/Friday. Lads it looks like its becoming a decent storm

nacho libre · 09-11-2010 9:24pm

Pangea wrote: »

Met eireann said 130km winds for the north west on thursday, that must be more than the weekends so called storm is it?

yes it is. with this in mind the fact that so many people still put their trust in the media, i think there should be a warning thread on after hours, seeing as it is the most visited parts of boards.ie, about this storm as there is a danger people will either be complacent, or just plain unaware of the potential danger, after Sunday's system was perceived to be a damp squib, and as a consequence disregard the met eireann warning that this system could deliver gusts of between 40 - 70 mph to some inland parts of Ireland. it is in circumstances like these people could get killed as they undertake journeys and tasks in adverse conditions.

Ahorseofaman · 09-11-2010 9:28pm

approx what time will the strong winds hit or is it to early to say?

maquiladora · 09-11-2010 9:33pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Are you talking about Siobhan? She said "extremely windy" with "gale to storm force" winds in the west and north. And Pat Clarke said the same on the radio at 17:55. That'd be pretty on the mark if you ask me!

She was on the mark about it being extremely windy but it was the "perhaps even touching Gale force" that seemed very conservative to me.

I suppose they don't want media to pull another 'tomas'...

weisses · 09-11-2010 9:35pm

there is a warning out in Holland for this storm

Storm 10 · 09-11-2010 9:50pm

Amazed there is no warning here when you consider all the hype of 100 k at the weekend, this storm looks pretty bad for Thursday

nacho libre · 09-11-2010 9:54pm

maquiladora wrote: »

She was on the mark about it being extremely windy but it was the "perhaps even touching Gale force" that seemed very conservative to me.

I suppose they don't want media to pull another 'tomas'...

regarding her forecast, it's more to do with her nervous presenting style than conservatism on her part. i think other forecasters would be better suited to conveying the danger as they are able to personalise their forecast. this is not a criticism of her, because she has only started out doing tv broadcast afterall.

isle of man · 09-11-2010 9:54pm

nacho libre wrote: »

yes it is. with this in mind the fact that so many people still put their trust in the media, i think there should be a warning thread on after hours, seeing as it is the most visited parts of boards.ie, about this storm as there is a danger people will either be complacent, or just plain unaware of the potential danger, after Sunday's system was perceived to be a damp squib, and as a consequence disregard the met eireann warning that this system could deliver gusts of between 40 - 70 mph to some inland parts of Ireland. it is in circumstances like these people could get killed as they undertake journey's and task in adverse conditions.

our local weather is saying 40mph winds. thats it.
hence the reason i come on here.

Su Campu · 09-11-2010 9:56pm

maquiladora wrote: »

She was on the mark about it being extremely windy but it was the "perhaps even touching Gale force" that seemed very conservative to me.

I suppose they don't want media to pull another 'tomas'...

I don't think she said perhaps, pretty sure she said gale to storm force. Of course the her bulletin's not in the RTE Player now so we'll never know! Have to listen to her after the Nine news....

Kippure · 09-11-2010 10:07pm

Tonights 18z run should start to refine this stormy outcome.

thetonynator · 09-11-2010 10:16pm

Min wrote: »

I know some love storms but even the last storm led to one death, a farmer worried a tree would cause damage if it fell in the storm and ended up killed cutting down the said tree, all because of Becky and the overhyping by the media.

I remember a few years ago a lorry driver was killed when his lorry was blown over a bridge in Derry.

Lets have snow, it is probably safer.

2 more died in the crash in tuam which was probably a direct result of the weather conditions.

Su Campu · 09-11-2010 10:17pm

The 18Z HiRLAM has it at 946hPa as it passes to the north midday Thursday, that's 5 hPa lower than its 12Z run, 5hPa lower than the ECMWF, 7 lower than GFS. That would be something!

Still some loose ends to be tidied up, but it sure does look windy for Ulster and Connaught!

thetonynator · 09-11-2010 10:17pm

Su Campu wrote: »

I don't think she said perhaps, pretty sure she said gale to storm force. Of course the her bulletin's not in the RTE Player now so we'll never know! Have to listen to her after the Nine news....

It's usually in the rte player, but you have to click onto the news and go to the very end of it.

The Week Ahead - Discussion - Potentially Storm Thursday

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