Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

koutoubia · 24-06-2019 12:25pm

ongarboy wrote: »

The current rainfall radar map on met.ie shows little pockets of red (ie 12-20 mm per hour of rain) in North County Dublin so there is probably some very heavy localized downpours there right now.

There was certainly a downpour after the thunder and lightning but nothing compared to what fell last night....in my area on NCD anyway.

JCX BXC · 24-06-2019 12:34pm

Yellow warning issued by Met Éireann, with mentioned of heavy thundery downpours. Valid from now until 10pm.

Rougies · 24-06-2019 1:40pm

Wicklow mountains cell sparking now.

klaaaz · 24-06-2019 1:52pm

Oh my, heading directly for Dublin city from Wicklow mountains, radar at 1:40pm

redsteveireland · 24-06-2019 4:56pm

Recent sferics near Bunclody according to netweather radar

AlanMcC23 · 24-06-2019 5:48pm

Just heard a loud long rumble of thunder here in north laois. Didnt see any lightening though

chris2007 · 24-06-2019 5:56pm

is their anything heading for Dublin

Storm 10 · 24-06-2019 6:26pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Not sure how to take that remark

Postgrad10 · 24-06-2019 6:44pm

Dark and cloudy all day in the north east. Suddenly now clouds gone, blue skies, and much warmer.

km79 · 24-06-2019 6:48pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Not sure how to take that remark

This forum has got heatstroke last 2 days
That’s the only explanation

Beechwoodspark · 24-06-2019 6:55pm

This humid clammy grey weather is the absolute worst weather type we get here.

I’d take cold but fresh days over this.

24-06-2019 7:15pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

This humid clammy grey weather is the absolute worst weather type we get here.

I’d take cold but fresh days over this.

Especially with nothing to show for it,

Nothing here, no thunder, light shower a few mins ago. Oh well.

Meteorite58 · 24-06-2019 7:44pm

Quietened down now and also over in the UK . Heavy convective showers, darkened for a while here near Tralee in the afternoon but no rainfall. All sunny and bright again.

Meteorite58 · 24-06-2019 8:02pm

Munsters turn tomorrow perhaps.

Looks like heavy downpours . No DLS top speak of just low level shear and Kerry / Cork in an area of convergence. Being of a more mountainous area could get quite a few strikes IMO

Meteorite58 · 24-06-2019 8:34pm

https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/1143238665390428162

https://twitter.com/Official_WXUK/status/1143238014979760134

nthclare · 24-06-2019 8:42pm

I'm not trolling but would it be safe to head out to the rocks casting with a 14 ft carbon beach rod for mackerel this evening ?

I remember year's ago it was suggested not to go fishing when there's a possibility of thunder and lightning..

Meteorite58 · 24-06-2019 9:22pm

Jumping a bit ahead , Sat is an intriguing day with what looks like frontal activity crossing the country maybe early morning . Think it is a cold front making its way into the warm moist air mass giving a huge amount of forcing. Preliminary and obviously unreliable at this stage looking like a very active front with embedded thunderstorms as it runs into CAPE values that go through the roof. There would be potentially very heavy downpours and quite possible severe thunderstorms.

These are just my amateur thoughts at this early stage . I think it could be a possible extreme event but a lot could change between now and then. Basing this on the ECMWF model guidance. Nothing certain but worth keeping an eye on I reckon.

nacho libre · 24-06-2019 9:54pm

Lots of lightning strikes in Northern France at the moment, these storms should make their way up towards London and the South East of England in the small hours. There could be some impressive lightning again overnight there

Neddyusa · 24-06-2019 11:50pm

Ok - question for the convective heads here who understand the life cycle of a midlands Irish Summer Thunderstorm:
Back when I was a young lad my Grandfather (long since RIP) used to tell me that in these humid summer days when thunderstorms built and moved slowly in a general South to North direction that they would follow the rivers Suck and Shannon northwards, leaving us in south Roscommon in the dry slot in between.
Now on many summer days since that I have observed that exact phonomen.
And once again this evening about 10km to my West a thunderstorm has followed the river Suck northwards from Ballinasloe like a streamer for about 4 hours.
See radar image attached.

So what causes it??

Is there some interaction between the rivers and the cloud? Or is it that the storms follow the river valleys (although obviously the Shannon and Suck valleys are quite shallow here)?

Now this only seems to happen when there is little to no wind, when strong higher level winds are present their direction over-rides the South-North streamer formation.

Mortelaro · 25-06-2019 12:03am

Neddyusa wrote: »

Ok - question for the convective heads here who understand the life cycle of a midlands Irish Summer Thunderstorm:
Back when I was a young lad my Grandfather (long since RIP) used to tell me that in these humid summer days when thunderstorms built and moved slowly in a general South to North direction that they would follow the rivers Suck and Shannon northwards, leaving us in south Roscommon in the dry slot in between.
Now on many summer days since that I have observed that exact phonomen.
And once again this evening about 10km to my West a thunderstorm has followed the river Suck northwards from Ballinasloe like a streamer for about 4 hours.
See radar image attached.

So what causes it??

Is there some interaction between the rivers and the cloud? Or is it that the storms follow the river valleys (although obviously the Shannon and Suck valleys are quite shallow here)?

Now this only seems to happen when there is little to no wind, when strong higher level winds are present their direction over-rides the South-North streamer formation.

Not familiar with the area but it could just be a simple case of it being a common convergence zone
They don't change

Neddyusa · 25-06-2019 12:11am

Mortelaro wrote: »

Not familiar with the area but it could just be a simple case of it being a common convergence zone
They don't change

Thanks. So is it topography that's influencing these convergence zones?

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 12:18am

Interesting observation Neddyusa. Got me looking at the charts for this evening and the topography of Ireland. Going by the earlier charts it would look like an area of convergence which comes about possibly as a result of the slack airflow following the contours of the land and that area might be a regular convergence zone. I don't know if enough evaporation could be coming off the rivers to aid convection in this area also ?

Storm 10 · 25-06-2019 12:18am

Great lightning on the Le Harve webcam

https://www.lehavretourisme.com/en/live-webcam

Neddyusa · 25-06-2019 12:59am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Interesting observation Neddyusa. Got me looking at the charts for this evening and the topography of Ireland. Going by the earlier charts it would look like an area of convergence which comes about possibly as a result of the slack airflow following the contours of the land and that area might be a regular convergence zone. I don't know if enough evaporation could be coming off the rivers to aid convection in this area also ?

That's great Meteorite.
Looking at that relief map it seems to be the lower ground of the river valleys creating the convergence zones. Particularly as this evenings one followed the Suck northwards before cutting Northeast-wards towards the Shannon through another area of low terrain in mid-Roscommon.
The evaporation from the rivers was also something I had wondered about too.
I've marked the route of this evenings river Suck streamer in black and the usual route of the river Shannon ones in yellow.

Neddyusa · 25-06-2019 1:03am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Interesting observation Neddyusa. Got me looking at the charts for this evening and the topography of Ireland. Going by the earlier charts it would look like an area of convergence which comes about possibly as a result of the slack airflow following the contours of the land and that area might be a regular convergence zone. I don't know if enough evaporation could be coming off the rivers to aid convection in this area also ?

That's great Meteorite.
Looking at that relief map it seems to be the lower ground of the river valleys creating the convergence zones. Particularly as this evenings one followed the Suck northwards before cutting Northeast-wards towards the Shannon through another area of low terrain in mid-Roscommon.
The evaporation from the rivers was also something I had wondered about too.

Neddyusa · 25-06-2019 8:37am

And then this morning we have the river Shannon streamer - just to illustrate the point!

nacho libre · 25-06-2019 3:50pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Heathrow TAF forecasting heavy thunderstorms 22-05Z (worth noting - airport closes almost entirely from 22z-05z so no disruption to flights likely)

A bust forecast sdanseo. As I mentioned it turned out to be a E.Sussex/Kent event again.

chris2007 · 25-06-2019 4:44pm

Whats the chance of thunderstorm activity Friday night/ Saturday morning

Oscar Bravo · 25-06-2019 5:01pm

Thunderstorm north of Bantry now

aisling86 · 25-06-2019 5:19pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Thunderstorm north of Bantry now

Started over coachford, took an hour to get to Macroom, was rain like I've never seen before in my life & the winds were so strong also. Very slow moving systems.

SleetAndSnow · 25-06-2019 5:22pm

Wonder if we will see any action in the city. Highly unlikely though I’d say

JCX BXC · 25-06-2019 5:47pm

Looks like a fairly active thunderstorm moved over Killarney and south of there!

MidMan25 · 25-06-2019 8:07pm

Heavy heavy rain in Castlegregory, Co. Kerry. Thunder and lightning imminent it seems.

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 10:18pm

Kerry and cork getting the Thunder and lightning today, big heavy showers reported around the county, just got side swiped here early evening with just 0.4mm recorded . A Lot of lightning around Killarney and torrential rain late afternoon.

SlowBlowin · 25-06-2019 10:26pm

Lots of heavy rain and rumbling most of the afternoon, I only saw cloud to cloud no ground strikes.

600 FT asl - McGillycuddy Reeks - Kerry

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 10:31pm

Possibly have some severe thunderstorms off the SW coast late Weds night early Thursday morning continuing into the afternoon. Watching to see if some heavy rain / thunderstorms might drift up along the coasts. Could be spectacular looking out to sea during the dark hours if it comes to be.

pad199207 · 25-06-2019 10:41pm

Anymore northward nudges and southern areas could be in business

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 10:44pm

Fri again in the SW has interest for thunderstorm potential as the front dissipates . ECM currently( and for the last few days ) showing tons of CAPE available ( mad amount !!! ) with a very warm moist air mass moving over the heat of the day could lead to some hefty thunderstorms if they form overland. If , If .....

SlowBlowin · 25-06-2019 10:52pm

I hate being in the house during lightening (house has been struck several times) I think if this kicks off I will blow the dust off the wife's camera and go down to Derrynane and try and get some pictures.

600 FT asl - McGillycuddy Reeks - Kerry

pad199207 · 25-06-2019 10:54pm

Perhaps a Kerry Clipper early Thursday morning

JanuarySnowstor · 25-06-2019 10:58pm

Problem is (going by gfs) anyway all the runs over the last 48hours keep the storms well off shore on Thursday. You would think high cloud and very humid is the only call

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 11:24pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Problem is (going by gfs) anyway all the runs over the last 48hours keep the storms well off shore on Thursday. You would think high cloud and very humid is the only call

ECM has been nudging the storms a bit closer to Ireland over the last few runs, their thunderstorm predictive charts showing thunderstorms clipping the coast Thurs ( Kerry clipper:pac: ) and showing storms developing in Kerry / W Cork overland from late morning early afternoon on Fri, even showing some severe thunderstorms ???

Thinking if that weak cold front moves in over the SW early Fri than with the lift from the mountains, temperature, convergence, loads of Deep Layer Shear, the moisture ... BANG !

Bit early to be posting convective charts for Friday but worth a close eye to see how it develops, don't see charts like these everyday that's for sure.

Fun guessing anyway!

Meteorite58 · 26-06-2019 12:14am

Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 26 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019

ISSUED 20:41 UTC Tue 25 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge will expand across western Europe on Wednesday, while an upper vortex pivots westwards to the west of Biscay. The net result is advection of a high Theta-W airmass from France, across the Channel Islands and out to the Celtic Sea. Weak impulses running northwards from the English Channel into southern England may produce some showery bursts of rain from high-based elevated convection during Wednesday daytime. Lightning risk is considered quite low.

By late afternoon into the evening, an environment with very steep lapse rates and significant CAPE (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg) will evolve across the Celtic Sea, engaging with the left exit of a strong southerly jet to the west of Biscay. Model guidance is in reasonable agreement for a cluster of potentially very active elevated thunderstorms to develop during this timeframe, expanding in coverage as they drift west-northwestwards on the leading edge of this instability plume over open waters to the south of Ireland. Depending on the exact track, these may pass close to SW Ireland on Wednesday night - and upgrades may be required if trends suggest a heightened chance of reaching SW Ireland, especially late in the night.

Storm 10 · 26-06-2019 12:00pm

Yesterdays Thunderstorm in Killarney, now if this happened in Dublin the forum would have gone into overdrive.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/sudden-thunderstorm-causes-flooding-in-killarney-933070.html

26-06-2019 1:32pm

Lol you’d swear we never saw heavy rain before !

26-06-2019 1:33pm

Check out sat24 enable lightning and see what’s brewing from biscay .

Looks like it just might hit the south and south west but entirely miss the rest of us.

aisling86 · 26-06-2019 1:41pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Check out sat24 enable lightning and see what’s brewing from biscay .

Looks like it just might hit the south and south west but entirely miss the rest of us.

I can't see it making land at all, would be impressive if it did tho.

26-06-2019 1:44pm

aisling86 wrote: »

I can't see it making land at all, would be impressive if it did tho.

I'd say there's a pretty good chance for the South West looking at it again.

This is interesting because it's weather coming from Biscay direction I have not seen in a long long time. Hopefully by the end of the Summer we'll get a good proper Thunderstorm or two, one to remember lol.

26-06-2019 1:48pm

In actual fact I wouldn't rule out anything for the South East or East for later too as I see some of the cloud from that storm move this way. Nothing nearly as active but could have the potential.

One thing I remember about proper Thunderstorms before big one hit was that some clouds were moving in different directions, that always puzzled me, might be another sign to watch out for.

DOCARCH · 26-06-2019 4:12pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Yesterdays Thunderstorm in Killarney, now if this happened in Dublin the forum would have gone into overdrive.

And? What's your point?

Killarney - population approx. 14,500

Dublin - population approx. 1,173,000

Statistically/likely to be more Boards.ie members in Dublin reporting it?

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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