Turning colder from Monday - wintry showers on high ground

darkman2 · 11-10-2011 3:49am #1

...Also there is a slight risk of wintry showers too. The jet stream will be taking a bit of a holiday allowing depressions in from the Northwest. This could lead to a Northerly flow of air sourced from just East of Greenland and further North. The models are all over the place with how potent such a flow might be but it should allow the first real frost and it will feel much colder. Perhaps wintry showers later next week but that is up in the air atm (except on high ground!). Pardon the pun. It will feel alot colder though and temperatures are very unlikely to break 10c anywhere. It will turn more unsettled also with periods of rain becoming common again after our flirt with a continental high pressure this week. So the first "cold spell" is on the cards:)

I will post charts for you nearer the time. Quite an interesting period coming I think none the less.

It's still rather humid and warm and likely to get warmer before next weekend. Will be quite nice later this week. Enjoy it. It is coming to an end.

sparrowcar · 11-10-2011 7:41am

darkman2 wrote: »

...Also there is a slight risk of wintry showers too. The jet stream will be taking a bit of a holiday allowing depressions in from the Northwest. This could lead to a Northerly flow of air sourced from just East of Greenland and further North. The models are all over the place with how potent such a flow might be but it should allow the first real frost and it will feel much colder. Perhaps wintry showers later next week but that is up in the air atm (except on high ground!). Pardon the pun. It will feel alot colder though and temperatures are very unlikely to break 10c anywhere. It will turn more unsettled also with periods of rain becoming common again after our flirt with a continental high pressure this week. So the first "cold spell" is on the cards:)

I will post charts for you nearer the time. Quite an interesting period coming I think none the less.

It's still rather humid and warm and likely to get warmer before next weekend. Will be quite nice later this week. Enjoy it. It is coming to an end.

Awesome

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-10-2011 9:03am

I live for a good DM2 thread !!

Will be interesting to se if this downgrades over time

wildefalcon · 11-10-2011 9:04am

looking forward to the charts, I might understand them this year!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-10-2011 9:10am

This what we are talking about DM ?

ednwireland · 11-10-2011 9:26am

darkman2 wrote: »

. It will turn more unsettled also with periods of rain becoming common again after our flirt with a continental high pressure this week. So the first "cold spell" is on the cards:)
.

how the F**k is that supposed to happen eh hasnt stopped raining up here for 4 days (whats this the rte dublin forecast

)

wildefalcon · 11-10-2011 9:47am

So, for the ignorant like me, that chart shows the "forecast" temperature 174 hours out from the date of the chart, right?

How does the pressure factor in?

Elmo5 · 11-10-2011 9:52am

Can't wait for this warm humid stuff to end!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-10-2011 9:56am

wildefalcon wrote: »

So, for the ignorant like me, that chart shows the "forecast" temperature 174 hours out from the date of the chart, right?

How does the pressure factor in?

This is the upper air temp.

Ground temps:

Pressure:

Min · 11-10-2011 11:25am

ednwireland wrote: »

how the F**k is that supposed to happen eh hasnt stopped raining up here for 4 days (whats this the rte dublin forecast )

It hasn't rained here since Thursday when 1mm fell :pac:

On a general note, it would have been good for farmers if the current mild dry weather that we have here in the some parts held on till the end of the month.

carlarua · 11-10-2011 11:52am

Bring it on !!! Everything is rotting where it stands, even the wood that's supposed to be drying out is having mutant fungi growing on it

mike65 · 11-10-2011 11:55am

Won't happen*

*keep repeating won't happen

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-10-2011 12:07pm

mike65 wrote: »

Won't happen*

*keep repeating won't happen

Get into the spirit ! :pac:

Mycroft H · 11-10-2011 12:11pm

Thank fluck.....

I'm sick of it being too bloody warm.

Min · 11-10-2011 12:12pm

Looking at the latest charts, it doesn't look anything out of the ordinary.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-10-2011 12:23pm

Min wrote: »

Looking at the latest charts, it doesn't look anything out of the ordinary.

Still colder though

cherryghost · 11-10-2011 12:26pm

Defo, a drop of about 5 degrees nationwide daytime, well into single digits for nighttime temperatures.

dsmythy · 11-10-2011 12:36pm

Sounds like more typical October weather.

Speak Now · 11-10-2011 1:12pm

Definite cooldown on the way alright next 5/6 days, good late october weather

leahyl · 11-10-2011 1:30pm

So funny the way ye are trying to find any sign at all that it's going to get colder!:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-10-2011 1:32pm

leahyl wrote: »

So funny the way ye are trying to find any sign at all that it's going to get colder!:D

It will still be hot in Cork :P

NIALL D · 11-10-2011 1:52pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

It will still be hot in Cork :P

haha , it will lol

leahyl · 11-10-2011 1:56pm

NIALL D wrote: »

haha , it will lol

meanies.....:p

NIALL D · 11-10-2011 2:04pm

leahyl wrote: »

meanies.....:p

ah im sure if its similar to last year ye will get a good blast of snow down there..!!!!

Iancar29 · 11-10-2011 2:09pm

NIALL D wrote: »

ah im sure if its similar to last year ye will get a good blast of snow down there..!!!!

Yeah...... for a whole hour compared to days everywhere else... hehehehehe

:D

leahyl · 11-10-2011 2:14pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah...... for a whole hour compared to days everywhere else... hehehehehe :D

Ian SSSSSHHHH!!!:D

eskimocat · 11-10-2011 2:16pm

So where are we on the plan to remove all Irish snow shields...like for example the relocation of the Isle of Man? :pac:

Iancar29 · 11-10-2011 2:23pm

eskimocat wrote: »

So where are we on the plan to remove all Irish snow shields...like for example the relocation of the Isle of Man? :pac:

Hav you not noticed?... ive already contracted some "people" to sort that out for us

:rolleyes:

Lucreto · 11-10-2011 2:38pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hav you not noticed?... ive already contracted some "people" to sort that out for us :rolleyes:

I don't know about this, Decepticon haven't been known for getting the job done. You just know the Isle of Man have the Autobots on standby.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-10-2011 2:47pm

Lucreto wrote: »

I don't know about this, Decepticon haven't been known for getting the job done. You just know the Isle of Man have the Autobots on standby.

Along with the damn shadow :mad:

Calibos · 11-10-2011 4:52pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Along with the damn shadow :mad:

I love posting these

IOM Shadow and its evil twin the Anglesey Shadow

Iancar29 · 15-10-2011 11:26am

Ok folks! .. I gonna throw in an arm and a leg for this one. :rolleyes:

Current trends are showing a cool down from Sunday onwards ,
in the northern areas temps could be a max of only 8/9 o C .Frost and the first sub zero temps seem likely.

Current models are showing the potential for some wintry showers on high ground on Wednesday/ Wednesday night. Will be interesting to see how the cold front coming through actually pans out. Alot of reports of snow / sleet could turn out to be hail once again . SO boardsies in the North.... EYES PEALED!

Thoughts and comments from more EXPERIENCED snow forecasters ... "HINT HINT DM2

"

LET THE EXCITEMENT BEGIN !

Su Campu · 15-10-2011 12:53pm

Dare I mention the possibility of a P**** L** forming in the cold northerly flow south of Iceland during the week. 500 hPa temperatures around -35 °C may be low enough at this early stage of the season, with seas still at their warmest.

There's more here

muckish · 15-10-2011 1:07pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

SO boardsies in the North.... EYES PEALED!

Remember any reports to be accompanied by photographic evidence to save all the sensational outbursts and the likes!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 15-10-2011 1:11pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Dare I mention the possibility of a P**** L** forming in the cold northerly flow south of Iceland during the week. 500 hPa temperatures around -35 °C may be low enough at this early stage of the season, with seas still at their warmest.

There's more here

Dare my friend, DARE ! :pac:

Harps · 15-10-2011 1:52pm

GFS going for snow to fall in the north west!

Maybe on the top of Mt Errigal but I cant see anything much lower than that, we get -4 temps plenty of times from PM lows throughout the winter that don't give any real snow. If you swapped the height of the Donegal and Kerry mountains it'd be a different story but unfortunately nothing higher than 800m around here!

Still, the first real chance of the season, will definitely be keeping an eye out if I'm anywhere near the mountains

Deep Easterly · 15-10-2011 6:20pm

The actual cold front that is forecast to affect Ireland on Monday morning/afternoon has the potential to be quite nasty:

Could be some squally conditions in places as it moves through.

Su Campu · 15-10-2011 6:22pm

I'd worry about snow from the north when we have reports of temperatures above 30 °C in the Faroe Islands! :rolleyes:

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=60N&lon=015W&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2011&mes=10&day=15&hora=15&min=0&vte=Te

Su Campu · 15-10-2011 6:30pm

Thetonynator was right, there was already a thread running on this cold snap so I've moved Ian's thread over to this one.

Pangea · 15-10-2011 6:32pm

It said on the forecast that Monday will be a washout with squally conditions.

Deep Easterly · 15-10-2011 7:49pm

This chart shows the 11 year average (00-10) of daily MSLP and mean temperature values at Belmullet for the month of October:

Data: Ogimet.

Based on this 11 year average, the 20th of October is statistically the coldest day of the month with a daily mean of 9.5c. Interesting to note also that daily mean sea level pressure values tend to (statistically) fall sharply during the 2nd half of the month.

What is really interesting though is that generally speaking, the October 2011 trend for both elements seems to be following this 11 year mean pattern so far.

sparrowcar · 15-10-2011 7:53pm

Home from a day on the booze watching Liverpool v UTD and straight onto the weather forum.... How sad or cool is that????:rolleyes::)

Deep Easterly · 15-10-2011 8:00pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

watching Liverpool v UTD

= sad

sparrowcar wrote: »

straight onto the weather forum

= cool

sparrowcar · 15-10-2011 8:08pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

= sad

= cool

I'll give you that one only cause I'm too drunk to come up with an intelligent response in the state I'm in!

:o

pauldry · 15-10-2011 9:06pm

As the Board Safety Authority says

Never ever Drink and Post

NIALL D · 15-10-2011 9:52pm

pauldry wrote: »

As the Board Safety Authority says

Never ever Drink and Post

yeah , a drunk postman can be pretty dangerous :pac:

Harps · 16-10-2011 2:06am

Consistent upgrades on the gfs over the past few days for wind strength, looking like quite a stormy day for us in the north

Iancar29 · 16-10-2011 2:43pm

Slight upgrade as to a larger area potential for some wintry showers on Wednesday , would LOVE to a snow covered Kippure this early

Its a long shot though

Su Campu · 16-10-2011 3:38pm

Im getting rightly peed off with the amount of new winter/snow threads that are popping up daily at this stage.

STOP STARTING NEW THREADS WHEN THERE ARE ALREADY FOUR DEALING WITH WINTER / SNOW. :mad:

Any new threads on snow will be deleted as soon as they pop up so please stop wasting your and our time.

Deep Easterly · 16-10-2011 3:38pm

Evelyn mentioned earlier on the farming forecast that there could be gusts of up to 70mph (esp in coastal regions) as the tomorrow's cold front pushes over the country. Some very heavy rain forecast as well, esp for the NW but all areas at risk. Could be one to watch.

Iancar29 · 16-10-2011 3:42pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Evelyn mentioned earlier on the farming forecast that there could be gusts of up to 70mph (esp in coastal regions) as the tomorrow's cold front pushes over the country. Some very heavy rain forecast as well, esp for the NW but all areas at risk. Could be one to watch.

Imagine the cold came early?! .... i'd be here chanting away ....

B - L - I Z Z - ARD ! ! ...* CLAPS* B - L - I Z Z - ARD.... B - L ...

....:rolleyes:

Turning colder from Monday - wintry showers on high ground

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