2019 Nfl Draft

tgdaly · 16-01-2019 12:22pm #1

Didn't see a thread on this so thought I'd get it started. News today that Kyler Murray has declared for the draft. No surprise that he's done it, still isn't clear if he's leaning towards football or baseball though

Paully D · 18-01-2019 10:36pm

Daniel Jeremiah has forgetten more about draft prospects than I will ever know, but his first mock draft is awful, IMO:

https://twitter.com/movethesticks/status/1086330020757352448?s=21

thomond2006 · 19-01-2019 1:04pm

I have no clue about any of these players but I can't see four defensive players going first in today's NFL.

the baby bull elephant · 19-01-2019 2:51pm

Paully D wrote: »

Daniel Jeremiah has forgetten more about draft prospects than I will ever know, but his first mock draft is awful, IMO:

https://twitter.com/movethesticks/status/1086330020757352448?s=21

If the Lions took a TE at 8 the fan base would riot.

Foxtrol · 19-01-2019 3:12pm

the baby bull elephant wrote: »

If the Lions took a TE at 8 the fan base would riot.

He generally isn't even regarded as the best TE from his school so there's no way he is the first TE off the board at 8.

Drafts at this time of the year are especially pointless but this one seems like extra click baity for how bad it is.

Paully D · 02-02-2019 12:35am

https://twitter.com/mysportsupdate/status/1091391336287211525?s=21

Jesus, he really needs to be better prepared than that for those questions.

How doesn’t he just have a standard response to them learned off at this point?

It’s inevitable they were the first questions going to be asked!

Frankie Cortese · 04-02-2019 6:44pm

Paully D wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mysportsupdate/status/1091391336287211525?s=21

Jesus, he really needs to be better prepared than that for those questions.

How doesn’t he just have a standard response to them learned off at this point?

It’s inevitable they were the first questions going to be asked!

I think he knows he’ll go down the MLB route. He can always try football for 1 or 2 years & go back to baseball but he can’t do it in reverse. Starting to think he’s a ego the size of Greenland this kid.

Perhaps just wants to get his name in the history books as the first athlete ever to go in round 1 of the NFL & MLB drafts.

eagle eye · 04-02-2019 7:17pm

He could be acting the maggot to keep himself in the news which would work in his favour when dealing with a contract. The lad is clearly all about the money as he has already pointed out.

I'm not so sure teams are going to get too excited about him though, he is just so small. Massive talent but the height is a massive issue.

tripperman · 04-02-2019 8:00pm

Really looking forward to the draft, defense heavy at the top talent wise imo, quarterbacks haven't looked at enough to decide on them yet, offensive line has a few nice pieces I'm hoping the chargers could get, I've not seen much college ball this year to know the class to well in the mid to late rounds

tgdaly · 12-02-2019 1:10pm

Murray has committed to playing football

Murray: 'Fully committing' life to being NFL QB https://es.pn/2WYD7j1
via @ESPN App http://es.pn/app

Paully D · 12-02-2019 1:15pm

tgdaly wrote: »

Murray has committed to playing football

Murray: 'Fully committing' life to being NFL QB https://es.pn/2WYD7j1
via @ESPN App http://es.pn/app

Kingsbury loves him.

It’d be hilarious if they ended up taking him at #1 and trying to trade Rosen!

Knex* · 12-02-2019 1:22pm

Would take Rosen over him all day long!

eagle eye · 12-02-2019 2:48pm

Paully D wrote:

Itâ€™d be hilarious if they ended up taking him at #1 and trying to trade Rosen!

No chance he goes at 1 because Dwayne Haskins is a much better prospect. I think he will go no.1 in the draft.
Imo he is the best QB prospect to come out of college since Andrew Luck.

letowski · 12-02-2019 4:31pm

Reports out that Jeffery Simmons has torn his ACL. Very hard to project where he will get drafted now, on top of the tape out there of him hitting a women a couple of years ago. Probably a top 15 player based on just talent alone.

Adamocovic · 12-02-2019 4:41pm

Knex. wrote: »

Would take Rosen over him all day long!

Hard to know.

Obviously Murray has the size limitations but seems to have good fight and determination. Has the talents, Baker said he'd break his records. Will draw lots of Baker comparisons but doesn't mean it will work out for him.

I'm bias however. I dislike Rosen, don't like his attitude and believe he's an average QB with an inflated opinion of himself. Thought he was good in College but nothing outrageously good.

He'll have an NFl career but I don't expect much from him, Murray could tank but if it clicks, he's an exciting prospect.

Foxtrol · 12-02-2019 4:51pm

People point to his size as a major issue, and it definitely isn’t ideal, but how many highly rated college QBs that are deemed small coming out have been NFL busts due to their height?

I feel height is overly focused on and the guys that can overcome it to make it to the NFL are in a much better position to succeed than some of the tall QBs, who have issues overlooked due to their height.

VillaMad · 12-02-2019 5:10pm

Mississippi State DT Jeffrey Simmons who was comfortably a first-rounder has reportedly tore his ACL.

Adamocovic · 12-02-2019 5:22pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

People point to his size as a major issue, and it definitely isn’t ideal, but how many highly rated college QBs that are deemed small coming out have been NFL busts due to their height?

I feel height is overly focused on and the guys that can overcome it to make it to the NFL are in a much better position to succeed than some of the tall QBs, who have issues overlooked due to their height.

That's an interesting point. I know fundamentally it makes sense that players shorter have more to overcome in terms of the O-Line in front of them, seeing the field, and get the ball off cleanely especially in a much faster stronger environment.

We do focus on the short guys who have been a success but not as much on the failures. I'm sure it may be a case of them being overlooked, or not even getting in the league but would be interesting to see a comparison of careers by height, some effort involved!

thomond2006 · 13-02-2019 11:38am

Is there any precedent with a team dumping a first round QB after one year after drafting/signing a starting QB? I'm intrigued to see what market there would be for Rosen if Arizona did draft a QB in the first round. At worst Rosen can be a backup on a cheap contract for the next three seasons but teams aren't going to be offering early round picks for a backup spot.

Paxton Lynch was in a similar spot and he even cleared waivers after the Broncos cut him.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 14-02-2019 9:36am

I'm on the fence about Murray's height. He's listed as 5'9", and a lot of people online saying he's only 5'8". Brees and Wilson are 5'11" and Mayfield is 6'1" for comparison. I never thought height is a legitimate issue for QBs but 5'8" is very small. There will be some throws he just won't be able to make and this will be exacerbated in the playoffs. I still think he has every chance of being a franchise QB that being said. His height measurement at the combine will be interesting.

Can't find it now, I recently saw a top 10 list of TD leaders from players 5'10" and under, Doug Flutie was #1 and LaDainian Tomlinson was no.2 :pac:

Knex* · 14-02-2019 11:35am

It's not so much the height, it's the size. Wilson is an absolute tank in comparison to Murray. I just don't see how he'll be durable enough to play in the NFL, especially with his style of play.

He's going to weigh about 190lbs, max.

Foxtrol · 14-02-2019 3:31pm

Knex. wrote: »

It's not so much the height, it's the size. Wilson is an absolute tank in comparison to Murray. I just don't see how he'll be durable enough to play in the NFL, especially with his style of play.

He's going to weigh about 190lbs, max.

Wilson weighed 204lb at the combine while being 2 inches taller, so that isn’t really that massive of a difference. He has a style of play that involves movement, but it is not like he’s out there running and throwing himself around like Cam.

What I see coming up a lot post combine will be hand size. The two most famous ‘small’ QBs, Brees and Wilson, have enormous hands, bigger than all the QBs drafted in the first-round last year. At this point I’m not sure how much weight GMs will put on it but some scouts and former QBs talk about a limit in size where you take guys off the board.

Jolly Red Giant · 14-02-2019 9:21pm

There is a major question mark over drafting Murray - and it is not his talent.

Say the Broncos were to draft Murray at 1.10 - then his rookie contract would amount to approx, $18million (what Rosen got from the Cards last year) - at that point there is nothing to stop the Oakland A's coming back to Murray and offering him a major league contract worth, say $25million. Even if he went first overall and got Mayfield's contract of $33million - the A's could come back and offer $40million.

Effectively the A's can outbid any NFL team in terms of the contract they offer Murray. If you look at the serious commentary coming out of Oakland then the A's will be patient - there is a contract worth $6.5million already on the table - roughly equal to a mid-second round pick in the draft. If Murray falls below that point then it is conceivable that Murray could walk away from the NFL and go back to Oakland on his original contract. He demanded a $15million contract from Oakland to stick with baseball a month ago (money for a mid-first round pick) - the A's sat tight because they know that can come back to him at anytime after the draft and offer him the $15million - and there is always the prospect that they could get him for less.

Now - it is possible that Murray actually wants to play football - but before a team drafts him they would have to be 100% sure that he is committed and not chasing money. If there is any doubts then Murray could fall in the draft until someone decides to take a flyer on him in the hope he will stick with football.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Murray back in Oakland - while the A's have one of the lower salary expenditures in the MLB at about $80million - in 2017 they had income of $210million. Billy Beane is still running the show in Oakland and wants value for money across the board and the new billionaire owner apparently is a tight-wad - but taking Murray from the NFL after the draft would be a major publicity coup for Oakland and I could see them stumping up the money in an attempt to do it.

Foxtrol · 15-02-2019 3:22pm

Jolly Red Giant wrote: »

There is a major question mark over drafting Murray - and it is not his talent.

Say the Broncos were to draft Murray at 1.10 - then his rookie contract would amount to approx, $18million (what Rosen got from the Cards last year) - at that point there is nothing to stop the Oakland A's coming back to Murray and offering him a major league contract worth, say $25million. Even if he went first overall and got Mayfield's contract of $33million - the A's could come back and offer $40million.

Effectively the A's can outbid any NFL team in terms of the contract they offer Murray. If you look at the serious commentary coming out of Oakland then the A's will be patient - there is a contract worth $6.5million already on the table - roughly equal to a mid-second round pick in the draft. If Murray falls below that point then it is conceivable that Murray could walk away from the NFL and go back to Oakland on his original contract. He demanded a $15million contract from Oakland to stick with baseball a month ago (money for a mid-first round pick) - the A's sat tight because they know that can come back to him at anytime after the draft and offer him the $15million - and there is always the prospect that they could get him for less.

Now - it is possible that Murray actually wants to play football - but before a team drafts him they would have to be 100% sure that he is committed and not chasing money. If there is any doubts then Murray could fall in the draft until someone decides to take a flyer on him in the hope he will stick with football.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Murray back in Oakland - while the A's have one of the lower salary expenditures in the MLB at about $80million - in 2017 they had income of $210million. Billy Beane is still running the show in Oakland and wants value for money across the board and the new billionaire owner apparently is a tight-wad - but taking Murray from the NFL after the draft would be a major publicity coup for Oakland and I could see them stumping up the money in an attempt to do it.

There are a few issues with that theory though.

Murray isn’t some college baseball god, he was seen by most as a big reach where he was drafted. Right now he is a much better at football than baseball. The hope is that he will improve if he focused on baseball, but that's no guarantee, so aside from the very short-term publicity of outbidding the NFL I don’t see where the value for money is for the As to shell out that kind of money.

On Murray’s side, yes they might outbid the rookie contract in the NFL but there’s a much higher chance that it’ll be the last contract he gets in baseball than if he went to football. Look at the absolute garbage QBs that have well paying backup jobs and even if he falls out of the NFL, QBs are still making $250k a year in AAF, CFL, and presumably XFL will be throwing cash around from next year. Add in the glory of being a franchise QB leading to the much higher level of sponsorship in the NFL, the draw really isnt there to switch to MLB if he is drafted early in the NFL.

Always Be Closing · 20-02-2019 5:19pm

DeAndre Baker to KCC please

phatkev · 22-02-2019 9:03pm

Foxtrol · 26-02-2019 2:01am

Interesting breakdown of the old school value chart for each team in the draft this year

https://twitter.com/RNBWCV/status/1100053339822309381

Blut2 · 26-02-2019 1:20pm

Thats very cool. Not a very exciting draft for any Bears fans is it?

tgdaly · 26-02-2019 2:09pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats very cool. Not a very exciting draft for any Bears fans is it?

Or Seahawks!

Mr. Guappa · 26-02-2019 2:23pm

Interesting that the Patriots and Browns ranks quiet high on the newer formula (8th, 9th) and way down on the Jimmy Johnson one (19th, 18th). I'm guessing the Jimmy Johnson formula is weighted more towards early first rounders?

Foxtrol · 28-02-2019 3:44pm

Kyler Murray weighed in at 5-foot-10, 207 pounds, with a handsize of 9 1/2 inches.

Size is still an issue but he is not quite the frail dwarf some expected.

eagle eye · 28-02-2019 3:50pm

Foxtrol wrote:

Kyler Murray weighed in at 5-foot-10, 207 pounds, with a handsize of 9 1/2 inches.
Size is still an issue but he is not quite the frail dwarf some expected.

5'10" in the NFL is equivalent to 5'5" for a man on the street.

Foxtrol · 28-02-2019 3:57pm

eagle eye wrote: »

5'10" in the NFL is equivalent to 5'5" for a man on the street.

He is only half an inch shorter than Russel Wilson was at the combine and actually 3 pounds heavier

Blut2 · 28-02-2019 4:16pm

Thats small for an NFL QB, but just about manageable I'd say. Russel Wilson I'm sure would love an extra 6" of height but he makes do at a similar size. Its a far cry from some of the 5ft 8 180lb rumours that were flying about.

Gotta give him props though - 200lbs+ at that height is incredibly heavy, comparatively. He must be extremely dedicated in the weights room.

Guffy · 28-02-2019 4:20pm

The one thing that would worry me is he has apparently put around 10-20 pounds on since the season finished and hasnt actually played at that weight. You'd wonder if he can sustain it.

Foxtrol · 28-02-2019 4:36pm

Guffy wrote: »

The one thing that would worry me is he has apparently put around 10-20 pounds on since the season finished and hasnt actually played at that weight. You'd wonder if he can sustain it.

Can see this being true and is probably why he is unlikely to throw. Probably feels different being that weight. Interesting if the extra weight will impact his run.

However, it does show he can carry that weight. He is also 2 years younger than Wilson was when he went to the combine and is now solely focusing on one sport so has plenty of time to fill out if he gets to sit for a year.

D9Male · 01-03-2019 12:35am

Let's see if he can run at that weight. If he doesn't break 4.50, it suggests he has been at the hot dog bar rather than the weights room.

Paully D · 01-03-2019 10:51am

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/1101308596262973440?s=21

An excellent read.

In a similar vein, a post I made 4 years ago on here seems relevant:

Reading a book at the moment in which an analytics guy claims he has found what he argues is the most important statistic in judging the potential success of a college quarterback in the NFL - 3rd down completion rate. Obviously it's not the only thing but he feels it's extremely significant.

Matt Richer is his name. He started off working with the Seahawks and is doing bits and pieces for other teams now. Jimmy Clausen is the first example the book cites, with Richer pegging him as undraftable due to his 3rd down completion rate. On 1st down he was 74%, 69% on 2nd, yet only 52% on 3rd. In 2011 when Mayock and co had Gabbert ranked as the #1 QB over Newton, Richer again cited his 3rd down rate which was just 44%! Gabbert only faced 5 ranked opponents and threw 4 TD's/6 INT's against same. He claimed Bortles reminded him a lot of Gabbert which is ironic given that both play(ed) with the Jaguars. Bortles was 71% on first, 75% on second but only 54% on 3rd. In Bortles previous two seasons they only played 4 ranked opponents and in those games, he threw half of his 18 INT's.

He says "most of the top QB's drafted in the last number of years don't see a significant drop in their completion percentage on third down". For example, Russell Wilson went 71%, 71% and 75% on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down respective at Wisconsin. Bridgewater had a 68% completion rate on 3rd down. In 2014, he had Bridgewater as the only QB worthy of a 1st round grade, while he gave Manziel a 4th round grade and Bortles a 5th.

The Bridgewater example doesn't look as good now after the injuries, but it's worth remembering that after his first couple of seasons he looked a lock as a franchise QB.

D9Male · 01-03-2019 1:02pm

That is a really interesting stat. Bridgewater was never a lock to be a franchise QB, but it is fascinating.

eagle eye · 01-03-2019 1:12pm

Paully D wrote:

The Bridgewater example doesn't look as good now after the injuries, but it's worth remembering that after his first couple of seasons he looked a lock as a franchise QB.

Bridgewater never looked last me a franchise QB. He looked average at best.

Personally the most important thing to look for before you even start is to see how a QB reacts under pressure. The best go down quickly if it's not safe to throw the ball away. Look at Brady, Brees and Rodgers and they all do that. The ones who always try to escape and make a play when under pressure never work out.
You rarely if ever see a guy learn that after college so if they are doing it in college don't draft them.

Knex* · 01-03-2019 3:37pm

Have to agree on Bridgewater. Never got the hype.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 01-03-2019 9:09pm

Can't see Kyler Murray falling outside the top 10 after yesterday. Plenty of people saying he was only 5'8'', which imo, would've cast some doubts.

Also, don't really see the Witten having a huge impact this season. Interesting how he said it was only his decision. Who's else would it have been?

Guffy · 01-03-2019 9:40pm

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Can't see Kyler Murray falling outside the top 10 after yesterday. Plenty of people saying he was only 5'8'', which imo, would've cast some doubts.

Also, don't really see the Witten having a huge impact this season. Interesting how he said it was only his decision. Who's else would it have been?

Well no he probably won't but he should. Screams an rg3 injury killing career

Foxtrol · 01-03-2019 9:52pm

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Also, don't really see the Witten having a huge impact this season. Interesting how he said it was only his decision. Who's else would it have been?

Guessing Witten was trying to make it clear that ESPN didn't dump him for being terrible and that caused him to go back to football.

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1101219880458768391

Billy86 · 01-03-2019 10:33pm

Guffy wrote: »

Well no he probably won't but he should. Screams an rg3 injury killing career

I don't know, RGIII just didn't have it all in all. I can never decide whether Shanahan's running him into the ground ruined his career, or whether Shanahan's system is the only reason he ever looked good as a rookie. The truth is probably somewhere in between, I guess.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 02-03-2019 12:33am

Guffy wrote: »

Well no he probably won't but he should. Screams an rg3 injury killing career

I've only watched a handful of college games this year, none of which included him, so I'm not going to pretend to know enough about Murray to give an opinion. I just don't think height is anywhere near as significant an issue as some people make it out to be. Wilson is only 5'11'' and he's comfortably a top 10 QB. Even had he measured 5'8" I don't believe it would've been defining, not for QBs nowadays.

Foxtrol wrote: »

Guessing Witten was trying to make it clear that ESPN didn't dump him for being terrible and that caused him to go back to football.

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1101219880458768391

Yea it's certainly the main line of thought. I wonder tough was he that afraid of the humiliation of getting sacked that he decided to give it another year. Stunningly stupid if true, but I'm not complaining!

Edit: just realised this is the draft thread, apologies mods.

Guffy · 02-03-2019 10:56am

Its not his height that would be my issue. I'm not comparing his game to RG3 either was jist pointing out a slight qb drafted in the top 5 getting hurt.

Russel Wilson had to cut weight to get down to 220 +/- for the combine and played higher than that. Imo a guy who ran for 1000 yards last year is not big enough (as a top 5 pick) to play the position at 190. He's added 15 odd pounds for the combine granted but is that sustainable long term? He's still 10 pounds short of Wilson who everyone is comparing him too.

Billy86 · 02-03-2019 1:33pm

Murray's 209 lbs is bigger than Wilson during the combine - http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/russell-wilson?id=2532975

It's also on my a few lbs off Drew Brees back in 2001, and is the exact same weight drew is now - http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=196&draftyear=2001&genpos=qb

Brees is a definite HOFer and Wilson is on pace to maybe make it too. Both would have been automatic top 5 picks if he they were 2-3 inches taller, but due to fickleness and fickleness alone (esp in the case of Wilson) slipped all the way down out of the first altogether. And in Wilson's case, from the 2nd too.

Guffy · 02-03-2019 2:44pm

Billy86 wrote: »

Murray's 209 lbs is bigger than Wilson during the combine - http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/russell-wilson?id=2532975

It's also on my a few lbs off Drew Brees back in 2001, and is the exact same weight drew is now - http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=196&draftyear=2001&genpos=qb

Brees is a definite HOFer and Wilson is on pace to maybe make it too. Both would have been automatic top 5 picks if he they were 2-3 inches taller, but due to fickleness and fickleness alone (esp in the case of Wilson) slipped all the way down out of the first altogether. And in Wilson's case, from the 2nd too.

But the point is that Wilson cut a lot of weight before the combine in order to run faster in the 40. His playing weight was a lot bigger more than that.

Murray put a lot of weight on to look bigger for the combine. His playing weight is normally not that big. Murray likes to run and linebackers are big.

Im not saying he doesnt have the potential to have a great career. Im saying is that he is light and has just an equal chance of having a similar career to Teddy B as he does Wilson.

I am not saying anything about his height. Although i will point out that 6 foot was the line of no return for baker last year. 5'10 appears to be the new line which just goes to show that height is irrelevant to a degree, if your good enough

Foxtrol · 02-03-2019 3:37pm

Guffy wrote: »

But the point is that Wilson cut a lot of weight before the combine in order to run faster in the 40. His playing weight was a lot bigger more than that.

Murray put a lot of weight on to look bigger for the combine. His playing weight is normally not that big.

Murray is only 21 though, which is 2 years younger than Wilson was at his combine. Weighing in shows his body can put on that weight though and he has years to do so. He probably isn’t ideal for a team that is in a win now window that will likely close in the next year or so but there aren’t many of those.

Murray likes to run and linebackers are big.

You’re making him sound like a run first QB. He is clearly a passer first that is also elusive and a great runner when the opportunity presents itself.

Im not saying he doesnt have the potential to have a great career. Im saying is that he is light and has just an equal chance of having a similar career to Teddy B as he does Wilson.

I am not saying anything about his height. Although i will point out that 6 foot was the line of no return for baker last year. 5'10 appears to be the new line which just goes to show that height is irrelevant to a degree, if your good enough

Every QB drafted has a chance of being a success or a bust, there are no sure things.

Guffy · 02-03-2019 5:42pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

Murray is only 21 though, which is 2 years younger than Wilson was at his combine. Weighing in shows his body can put on that weight though and he has years to do so. He probably isn’t ideal for a team that is in a win now window that will likely close in the next year or so but there aren’t many of those.

You’re making him sound like a run first QB. He is clearly a passer first that is also elusive and a great runner when the opportunity presents itself.

Every QB drafted has a chance of being a success or a bust, there are no sure things.

I never said he was run first but he does run. He ran for a 1,000 yards this year.

Im not saying he wont be good, he may grow to carry weight in 2 years time. Im saying its a risk trading up for a guy as light as him and starting him this year. Why on earth would someone trade up to the top 5 for a guy they will start in 2 years when he's not exactly elite elite either.

I know there's no sure thing but there are factors you take into account in order to mitigate risk

2019 Nfl Draft

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