Emirates future Fleet

Gael23 wrote: »

With the demise of the A380, what will Emirates fleet look like in the future? This causes a huge drop in capacity for them

Not if they replace them a larger number of smaller planes. DWC will give them the space but the issue could be at places like LHR.

Gael23 wrote: »

Will 15% fewer seats mean fare increases? That’s the issue.

As I said, on a like for like basis they'd lose 15% but are likely to have more capacity overall and within this more flexibility. And the per pax km flown number is a real decider here - this article is looking at transpacific flights but is a pretty good exemplar of the economics on a per passenger km flown basis. The pic also tells a story. Just look where the 777 and 350 sits vs 380.

Gael23 wrote: »

Would the increased number of aircraft in the sky not significantly increase operating costs, as in having two planes on a route that was previously serviced by one A380? There’s also the environmental impact

That's why we're looking at the fuel burn per passenger km flown. It doesn't matter if one plane carries 200 people and another 300, the fuel burn is looked at per pax per km. This is also an average and can vary by route as well as aircraft - A heavier aircraft gets back a lot of gas mileage if its sitting at cruising altitude for 12 hours sipping the fuel (relatively) vs a plane that flies for an hour over to London, and then flies back, and does it twelve times a day - as a % of flying hours, it spends a lot more in the intensive takeoff and climb phase vs cruise.

Looking at that graph above, what it tells you is that for 1 passenger over 1km on a transpacific route, the 787 is up to 60% more fuel efficient in bringing that bum over that km. That's what I mean by the economics stacking up quite quickly for Emirates and offsetting the capacity bump they get from an A380. Fly 3,600 times per week mostly long haul as they do, with half of those flights being A380s, every % reduction in fuel burn per pax per km adds up super mega quickly on the bottom line and more than makes up for financing a few extra planes and paying a few extra pilots and cabin crew.

Gael23 wrote: »

Have Emirates shown any interest in the 747-8?

Look at where it sits on that graph. Anything below the line is dead. Only reason the 747 exists is for freight now, they have a backlog that will see another 4 years of production at the rate of 1 every 2 months. They're knocking out 10 777's for the same timeframe (and that will expand rapidly when the 777x comes rolling off the line next year) and 24 787's (with a plan to go to 28) for comparison. The only thing keeping the 747 order book open really is freight, UPS ordered 14 this quarter; which doubled the order book. Otherwise the 747 was going to finish production before even the A380.

Mass market quads are dead, finished, no more.

The congested airports argument is also nearly dead. Heathrow is supposed to get a third runaway. Dubai World Central will relieve Dubai and places like Beijing have got a new airport. The A380 will still be around for a long time yet and will fill its own niche market, like maximising seats on slot restricted and bi-lateral restricted airports. Smaller, fuel efficient airliners from smaller regional airports point to point will be the future.