Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

JJJJNR · 02-12-2018 3:27pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, definitely...buy..

Stfu

sexmag · 02-12-2018 8:00pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

Does anyone on here have any actual real investing experience, not trying to put anyone down just get an answer, there's a third upward trend h&s forming, if it completes could it mean three white soldiers, according to my own research it does. Would that mean a bull return to 190 - 180 on eth.

Nobody here or anywhere can answer that, Its all speculative mate and lots of different things influence crypto.

It's up too you if you think buying now is a good idea,Its just as valid as someone saying I'll wait until tomorrow to buy or sell

JJJJNR · 02-12-2018 10:19pm

Well normal analysis can, but that's without a whale dumping a sh*t load of coin.

sexmag · 02-12-2018 10:23pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

Well normal analysis can, but that's without a whale dumping a sh*t load of coin.

I'd like to see these analysis's that have made correct predictions of bull runs.

Can you link to then please?

TheAnalyst_ · 02-12-2018 10:51pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

Does anyone on here have any actual real investing experience, not trying to put anyone down just get an answer, there's a third upward trend h&s forming, if it completes could it mean three white soldiers, according to my own research it does. Would that mean a bull return to 190 - 180 on eth.

You have no idea what will happen or even why anything has happened to date. Like trying to find patterns in clouds.

PS- I do have some real investing experience. I've put fairly large sums in a standard index fund, some property and a pension fund. I've been lucky and done fairly well out of it so far.

JJJJNR · 02-12-2018 10:55pm

sexmag wrote: »

I'd like to see these analysis's that have made correct predictions of bull runs.

Can you link to then please?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp

TheAnalyst_ · 02-12-2018 11:05pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp

Markets are defined by algorithms now so you can forget about all of that stuff.

JJJJNR · 02-12-2018 11:17pm

TheAnalyst_ wrote: »

You have no idea what will happen or even why anything has happened to date. Like trying to find patterns in clouds.

PS- I do have some real investing experience. I've put fairly large sums in a standard index fund, some property and a pension fund. I've been lucky and done fairly well out of it so far.

Ok so my theory is if the current h&s trend on eth closes out above 109(euro) that it is entering a bull run, if I buy one eth at my estimated entry point of 90 - 94 euro I'll have enough profit for a pizza at least by new years.

sexmag · 02-12-2018 11:38pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

Ok so my theory is if the current h&s trend on eth closes out above 109(euro) that it is entering a bull run, if I buy one eth at my estimated entry point of 90 - 94 euro I'll have enough profit for a pizza at least by new years.

That theory has been said about most of the top 20 cryptos this year by many many analysts, there has been points of where if they don't fall past XXXX price it's means a bull run because the bears cant sell off anymore etc,all of which have been proven wrong as 2018 has been a tough year, hopefully next year sees a slow and steady pick up

smacl · 03-12-2018 9:33am

TheAnalyst_ wrote: »

Markets are defined by algorithms now so you can forget about all of that stuff.

If markets were defined solely by algorithms, they could be predicted by algorithms. I'm not convinced this is the case, as while there is a lot of bot based trading I suspect these bots are frequently being tweaked and overridden by people.

TheAnalyst_ · 03-12-2018 3:45pm

smacl wrote: »

If markets were defined solely by algorithms, they could be predicted by algorithms. I'm not convinced this is the case, as while there is a lot of bot based trading I suspect these bots are frequently being tweaked and overridden by people.

Obviously yes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/it-s-a-quant-s-stock-market-as-computer-programs-keep-on-buying

Monitoring candles is a fools game.

Kenny Logins · 03-12-2018 3:47pm

smacl wrote: »

If markets were defined solely by algorithms, they could be predicted by algorithms. I'm not convinced this is the case, as while there is a lot of bot based trading I suspect these bots are frequently being tweaked and overridden by people.

...only if you know what the algorithms are, and each trading bot will have its own.

JJJJNR · 03-12-2018 6:42pm

TheAnalyst_ wrote: »

Obviously yes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/it-s-a-quant-s-stock-market-as-computer-programs-keep-on-buying

Monitoring candles is a fools game.

Yeah it's great to play Nick leeson though and worse case I loose 5 or 10 euro which is cheaper than the bookies.

JJJJNR · 03-12-2018 9:06pm

eth hitting 93 euros... only issue with that is the price didn't hit over 109, I'm still predicting pizza in new years.

sexmag · 03-12-2018 11:30pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

eth hitting 93 euros... only issue with that is the price didn't hit over 109, I'm still predicting pizza in new years.

What kind of pizza you talking about?

A personal pizza is like 5 quid

JJJJNR · 04-12-2018 12:21am

Super delux family size double pepperoni from platform.

sexmag · 04-12-2018 12:39am

JJJJNR wrote: »

Super delux family size double pepperoni from platform.

And how much does this pizza cost?

04-12-2018 12:41am

.2 eth.. So anywhere between a fiver and forty quid..

JJJJNR · 04-12-2018 12:43am

Lots. I don't have a menu.

JJJJNR · 04-12-2018 12:45am

Deleted User wrote: »

.2 eth.. So anywhere between a fiver and forty quid..

Sure Lord shillington

TallyRand · 04-12-2018 12:30pm

Is it just me or is there a general of fatigue with punters on crypto?

The chances of being burned are so high now for average joe and they’re fully aware so I do wonder for the sake of the invested on here where the new blood is going to come from?

Anyone who dived in for fomo surely won’t be topping up now or going back in. The whole financial world and etf thing really would be a shot in the arm but to what end?

I’d imagine the big movers would only come in to squeeze the last bit of cash from it.

I’m not trying to be pessimistic just can’t see where it gets better from here

smacl · 04-12-2018 12:54pm

TallyRand wrote: »

Is it just me or is there a general of fatigue with punters on crypto?

The chances of being burned are so high now for average joe and they’re fully aware so I do wonder for the sake of the invested on here where the new blood is going to come from?

Anyone who dived in for fomo surely won’t be topping up now or going back in. The whole financial world and etf thing really would be a shot in the arm but to what end?

I’d imagine the big movers would only come in to squeeze the last bit of cash from it.

I’m not trying to be pessimistic just can’t see where it gets better from here

Not sure I agree. I reckon those who bought in at this time last year, which includes myself FWIW, either got out long since or are in for the longer haul. I'm about 75% down on what I've spent, which is pretty much what I expected when I first got into this, and isn't a loss that would worry me in the least. I'll probably spend about the same again per year for the next couple of years with a high likelihood of losing most of it and and much smaller possibility of making a very high gain. I'm also putting a large multiple of the amount invested in crypto into other much safer low risk / low reward investments, such as a directors pension and property.

I'd guess that now is a much better time to get in than has been the case for well over a year. Where it gets better is the technology is either going to succeed, fail, or become marginalised. While any of these outcomes is possible, each year that passes is seeing the technology improved both directly and via improvements in the surrounding technology.

04-12-2018 1:07pm

smacl wrote: »

I'm about 75% down on what I've spent, which is pretty much what I expected when I first got into this, and isn't a loss that would worry me in the least. I'll probably spend about the same again per year for the next couple of years with a high likelihood of losing most of it and and much smaller possibility of making a very high gain. .

Seems like an odd investment strategy..

kippy · 04-12-2018 1:15pm

TallyRand wrote: »

Is it just me or is there a general of fatigue with punters on crypto?

The chances of being burned are so high now for average joe and they’re fully aware so I do wonder for the sake of the invested on here where the new blood is going to come from?

Anyone who dived in for fomo surely won’t be topping up now or going back in. The whole financial world and etf thing really would be a shot in the arm but to what end?

I’d imagine the big movers would only come in to squeeze the last bit of cash from it.

I’m not trying to be pessimistic just can’t see where it gets better from here

I'd agree.
I was involved last year, mainly via the free Lumens that I got via a thread on here a few years ago but sold up everything in Jan (not that there was that much)
Looking at some of the posts here, it looks as if a few people here are in at higher levels than the few hundred I got out of it.

The technology itself no doubt will have merit in a number of areas in the future, but the coins - seem to be abolsute nonsense to be frank about it.

grindle · 04-12-2018 1:27pm

TallyRand wrote: »

Is it just me or is there a general of fatigue with punters on crypto?

The chances of being burned are so high now for average joe and they’re fully aware so I do wonder for the sake of the invested on here where the new blood is going to come from?

Anyone who dived in for fomo surely won’t be topping up now or going back in. The whole financial world and etf thing really would be a shot in the arm but to what end?

Of course there's a fatigue, tons of people only lobbed money in at the top because they thought it would be easy money! 90% cuts are tough to weather.
The mantra is "only put in what you can afford to lose" for good reason. It's a time-unproven technology where the extent of what is or isn't plausible is still being figured out.
Plenty must've put in much more than they could afford to throw away I guess. That's their fault. Personal responsibility seems to be going out of fashion these days.

Having a load of retail punters was great for speculative trading and all and may be again in the future, but if a platform or a couple of platforms start being used on a large scale over the next 5-10 years then that's the end we're speculating on I guess? Granted there's a gazillion shítcoins which will boom and bust but a platform that's getting genuine use 5-10 years away will likely be around for a much longer time unless there's some catastrophic failure. No need for retail investors to get involved, but the choice is there for them if they want to calculate their risk/reward.

smacl · 04-12-2018 1:27pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems like an odd investment strategy..

Not at all. A strategy that mixes a small amount of high risk / high reward with a much larger amount of low risk / low reward is common enough. Very easy to knock an investment that is currently taking a hit, as you could have done with many pension funds, AIB shares or property in recent years, but that doesn't necessarily make them a bad investment. Putting funds you couldn't afford to lose into crypto would be plain dumb, but every piece of advise you'll read on this board explicitly tells you not to do that.

Dohnjoe · 04-12-2018 1:38pm

TallyRand wrote: »

Is it just me or is there a general of fatigue with punters on crypto?

The chances of being burned are so high now for average joe and they’re fully aware so I do wonder for the sake of the invested on here where the new blood is going to come from?

Well for anyone who got in mid 2017 and 2018 the market is (generally) lower

Anyone who got in 2017, back to 2011 the market is (certainly) higher

When a bear hits, interest dips. Low confidence sets in. When (if) the market starts to rise again then interest rises. Quite a few people I know are still up a vast amount because they got in before early 2017.

Ironically people who I couldn't stop from buying during the ridiculous FOMO in December 2017 are the same ones who wouldn't touch it now despite prices being 10x lower across the board. The tech and surrounding atmosphere hasn't changed much. This market is 95% psychological. So the mood is interdependent on the herd.

makeorbrake · 04-12-2018 2:13pm

TallyRand wrote: »

I’m not trying to be pessimistic just can’t see where it gets better from here

I'm counting on that pessimism. Crypto has been here before with the large drops - so if anyone thinks that it is stone dead, that would be a mistake.

Ironically, there has been plenty of good news in terms of preparation for institutional investment throughout 2018 despite the bear market.

Fidelity investments - revived a crypto VC fund and set up Fidelity Digital Asset Services to deal with custody and to make crypto trades on behalf of clients.

Nasdaq will launch bitcoin futures in Q1, 2019.

Chairman of the NYSE expressed the view the other week that despite bitcoins flaws, it will be sticking around - as will crypto.

Bakkt - a spin off of ICE (owner of NYSE) will launch a physically settled futures product in January.

Ledger opens NY office to develop Ledger Vault -an institutional grade custody solution for crypto.

KPMG - produce a report suggesting that crypto is sticking around but that institutionalization of crypto is required.

Morgan Stanley report suggests their belief that crypto is an institutional grade investment class.

Goldman Sachs and Galaxy Digital invest $60 million in investment grade custody solution, Bitgo.

TD Ameritrade invest in digital currency exchange.

Goldman Sachs takes majority stake in Circle (which recently launched its own crypto) - who in turn bought crypto exchange Poloniex.

Various crypto ETF's were continually knocked back in 2018 - it's inevitable that one or more of them will be approved in 2019.

That's an incomplete list but it indicates that crypto is not going anywhere. I don't expect this to lead to a surge any time soon...it will be a slow burner but ultimately, institutional money will flow into crypto.

EDIT - Just to add, a further investment by Fidelity and Nasdaq in ErisX as of earlier today.

JJJJNR · 04-12-2018 2:26pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems like an odd investment strategy..

Little acorns turns your spare change into an investment portfolio.

TallyRand · 04-12-2018 3:21pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

Little acorns turns your spare change into an investment portfolio.

Maybe he means that someon invested their money when they expected to be 75% down at this stage, that doesn’t make sense.

Regardless of the end game, I wouldn’t pay 40 quid for something I expect to be a tenner in the near future

smacl · 04-12-2018 3:45pm

TallyRand wrote: »

Maybe he means that someon invested their money when they expected to be 75% down at this stage, that doesn’t make sense.

Would you invest in something had a 80% probability of being 75% down in one years time and a 20% probability of being 500% up? If not, why not?

04-12-2018 5:39pm

smacl wrote: »

Would you invest in something had a 80% probability of being 75% down in one years time and a 20% probability of being 500% up? If not, why not?

I wouldn't..seems like bad odds..

(Although, lets be honest, this time last year crypto was the next big thing, and was never going to be this price again, hence the "FOMO" etc..I'd say in retrospect there's a few lads sorry they didn't miss out..but, yeah.)

Haha..I'd a dude swearing blind to me last year that bitcoin would definitely be 100k this Christmas..probably closer to 250k..

smacl · 04-12-2018 5:56pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I wouldn't..seems like bad odds..

Then you need to work on you maths as those are good odds. If that was a lottery with 5 tickets costing €1000 each, the cost to buy all the tickets would be €5000 and the total prize money would be €6000. Investment is always a gamble where you're looking for the bet where the odds are in your favour, as in the case I just gave. Just because a proposition is very high risk, where you're likely to lose all your money, doesn't make it a bad investment. Go ask any venture capitalist if you don't agree.

Dohnjoe · 04-12-2018 5:57pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I wouldn't..seems like bad odds..

(Although, lets be honest, this time last year crypto was the next big thing, and was never going to be this price again, hence the "FOMO" etc..I'd say in retrospect there's a few lads sorry they didn't miss out..but, yeah.)

Haha..I'd a dude swearing blind to me last year that bitcoin would definitely be 100k this Christmas..probably closer to 250k..

Yeah but putting the nonsense aside, there are few "assets" that can beat BTC, Eth, Ripple etc over their span

Crypto is HIGHLY risky (and could all go to nothing) but that's what some people like as a percentage of their portfolio

I remember struggling to convince myself to buy BTC at EUR 70, that was only a few years ago. The cat may be out of the bag, there may never be another large rise/bull, but if or when there is - the sentiment on these forums changes rapidly

04-12-2018 6:15pm

Lads, it was a bubble..

It has burst..

Dohnjoe · 04-12-2018 6:26pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Lads, it was a bubble..

It has burst..

The xmas bubble yup, but crypto in general is up significantly, e.g. personally I am up hundreds of percent on crypto investments made last year and thousands of percent on one made in 2013

Unless you are personally predicting it's all going to close to zero?

makeorbrake · 04-12-2018 6:46pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Lads, it was a bubble..

It has burst..

It's cyclical. We've been here many times before.

04-12-2018 7:40pm

...

Dohnjoe · 04-12-2018 8:15pm

Deleted User wrote: »

...

?

You're posting a 860% return over 2 and a half years

grindle · 04-12-2018 8:52pm

Deleted User wrote: »

...

04-12-2018 9:00pm

Yeah, but 90% of "the crypto space" has been proven to be a scam by now..loads of people got badly burned..good luck to ye like..I dunno..can't see it happening again..

Truckermal · 04-12-2018 9:12pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, but 90% of "the crypto space" has been proven to be a scam by now..loads of people got badly burned..good luck to ye like..I dunno..can't see it happening again..

Did you get caught for much?

makeorbrake · 04-12-2018 9:58pm

Dohnjoe wrote: »

?

You're posting a 860% return over 2 and a half years

(sshh)

makeorbrake · 04-12-2018 10:04pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, but 90% of "the crypto space" has been proven to be a scam by now..loads of people got badly burned..good luck to ye like..I dunno..can't see it happening again..

It's no 'scam'. Here we go again...'scam', 'ponzi', 'pyramid'.

If you lose money because of your own conscious decisions, that's your own responsibility. Maybe it's a millennial thing but you speculate and you may win or lose. You can't go crying 'scam', 'ponzi' or 'pyramid' after the fact.

A 'scam' would be a 'dishonest scheme'. Someone has to run a scheme - so who is the culprit?

04-12-2018 10:56pm

Truckermal wrote: »

Did you get caught for much?

No..

04-12-2018 11:01pm

makeorbrake wrote: »

It's no 'scam'. Here we go again...'scam', 'ponzi', 'pyramid'.

If you lose money because of your own conscious decisions, that's your own responsibility. Maybe it's a millennial thing but you speculate and you may win or lose. You can't go crying 'scam', 'ponzi' or 'pyramid' after the fact.

A 'scam' would be a 'dishonest scheme'. Someone has to run a scheme - so who is the culprit?

Yeah, but a lot of them have been shown to be actual scams,.look, yeah, you're all 'investing'..good luck to ye..

Just be careful taking financial advice off lads on YouTube..

makeorbrake · 04-12-2018 11:04pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, but a lot of them have been shown to be actual scams,.look, yeah, you're all 'investing'..good luck to ye..

There are scams surrounding cryptocurrencies - that doesn't define crypto in any way shape or form.

There have been ICO's that are vaporware. There are also penny stocks in the conventional investing world. Again, it's wrong to tar and feather all of crypto on the basis of some wayward ICO's. Other than that, there's an understanding that many altcoins will have to go - but everyone knows that not all can win out to serve the same purpose. That forms part of the speculation but it's not a scam, it's not a ponzi scheme and it's not a pyramid scheme. Those who started to use those terms had (and have) their own agenda.

Deleted User wrote:

Just be careful taking financial advice off lads on YouTube..

Yeah, that wouldnt really work out very well for conventional investment or crypto.

Eric Cartman · 04-12-2018 11:50pm

So just to ask, my reservations have always been the exit strategy, it seems like every crypto lets you throw as much money in as possible but is there any crypto with a really quick large money exit, like 1 million euro from crypto to my bank account for less than 5% fees in 48 hours ?

makeorbrake · 04-12-2018 11:53pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

So just to ask, my reservations have always been the exit strategy, it seems like every crypto lets you throw as much money in as possible but is there any crypto with a really quick large money exit, like 1 million euro from crypto to my bank account for less than 5% fees in 48 hours ?

If it's a larger volume coin, you can get off the rollercoaster pretty quickly - with any of the larger exchanges. If you're talking about the total cost, you'll have to run some comparisons between exchanges.

With the small cap coins, exiting may not be as straightforward with larger amounts. Achievable but maybe not as quickly.

grindle · 05-12-2018 12:00am

Eric Cartman wrote: »

So just to ask, my reservations have always been the exit strategy, it seems like every crypto lets you throw as much money in as possible but is there any crypto with a really quick large money exit, like 1 million euro from crypto to my bank account for less than 5% fees in 48 hours ?

Weird question... You'd have to warn the bank you're about to deposit that much and also have an exchange account with a higher tier to allow you to deposit or withdraw those amounts withbout raising flags, but very few would get anywhere near a 5% fee. Slippage from selling into the market could cause that much movement but looking at the books on Kraken right now you could sell €1m of BTC and it'd be closer to 2.5% "lost" due to slippage.

Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

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