The Iceland Volcano Thread

Hooter23 · 23-08-2014 7:53pm

Live youtube feed - http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xoISDUAPNgc

I think there has been another 4+ quake in last few minutes ....

Mrs Garth Brooks · 23-08-2014 7:54pm

How likely is this to stop flights in the next week?

Hooter23 · 23-08-2014 8:02pm

Mrs Garth Brooks wrote: »

How likely is this to stop flights in the next week?

Not sure depends how big the eruption is ...if it is about the same as the eruption a few years ago it wont cause as much choas to flights as they raised the limit of how much ash a plane can fly through...

Hooter23 · 23-08-2014 8:33pm

I suppose this eruption could cancel some flights or start an ice age 0_0

rickdangerouss · 23-08-2014 8:40pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

I suppose this eruption could cancel some flights or start an ice age 0_0

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/23/air_traffic_not_affected_by_eruption/

All Airports in Iceland are open, despite the eruption in Dyngjujökull, a glacier near Bardarbunga. A 140 by 100 nautical miles no-fly zone is in effect over Dyngjujökull, but at this point the eruption has no effect on flights.

The eruption is Currently a sub-glacial eruption, so it is not visable, but has been detected by the Icelandic Met Office.

maquiladora · 23-08-2014 9:34pm

Now questions are being raised whether a sub-glacial eruption even happened at all.

"The most likely scenario is that an eruption has not begun. This morning we saw a large increase in seismic activity and tremors, so it was perfectly rational to assume that an eruption had begun. A subglacial eruption melts the ice and causes floods. We surveyed the glacier for three hours today. I can of course not assert that nothing has happened, but it is clear that there are no signs of abnormal melting or other signs that normally appear during a subglacial eruption. It is therefore likely that the magma has not reached the surface yet - regardless of what will happen later in this process, because this is a fairly large event and those who delay to give timely warnings can carry a large responsibility. Therefore, it was considered proper to be careful today but when more information comes in, the most likely conclusion is that an eruption has not begun, whatever happens later in this event"

http://www.ruv.is/frett/expert-likely-no-eruption-yet

maquiladora · 24-08-2014 1:36am

5.3 earthquake inside the caldera. Biggest earthquake of the swarm so far.

cherryghost · 24-08-2014 2:19am

Nowhere near the recent swarms though

rickdangerouss · 24-08-2014 8:32am

cherryghost wrote: »

Nowhere near the recent swarms though

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2949

Another spike this morning, after another 5.1

The last time a 5+ EQ hit the same volcano, it went straight away, this is beginning, to be very WTF.

If you look at the map above, the Eq's happen each side of the caldera.
Not a good sign of things getting quieter.

maquiladora · 24-08-2014 9:43am

cherryghost wrote: »

Nowhere near the recent swarms though

I think this is due to subsidence inside of the caldera as the magma is moving outward into surrounding fissures.

maquiladora · 24-08-2014 2:44pm

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Aviation colour code returned to orange despite continuing seismicity.

Yeah they might have jumped the gun a bit yesterday. If anything though the activity today is more interesting than yesterday.

rickdangerouss · 24-08-2014 3:04pm

Never ever was thinking of this and what could be happening. "Veidivotn like event" Maybe its a build up and another 50 years will pass?

maquiladora · 24-08-2014 8:02pm

More than 1200 earthquakes have been detected in the Bardarbunga area since midnight, most of them at the northern tip of the dike intrusion in the Dyngjujokull outlet glacier. Seismic activity has now been detected about 4 km outside the glacier. 270 million m³ of magma are thought to have flowed.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/dike-intrusion-now-north-of-dyngjujokull

pad199207 · 24-08-2014 9:59pm

5.3 mag just now

cherryghost · 25-08-2014 9:45am

A lot of shallow quakes this morning judging by the recordings.

maquiladora · 25-08-2014 7:27pm

Another large quake in the Bárðarbunga caldera today, 5.1.

Sierra Oscar · 26-08-2014 12:25pm

Apparently there was a 5.7 earthquake overnight / this morning?

Bardarbunga hit by 5.7 earthquake

Iceland's Bardarbunga volcano was hit by a magnitude 5.7 earthquake on Tuesday morning, the largest since tremors began in the area last week.

Tabnabs · 26-08-2014 12:34pm

An Icelandic guy on twitter @gislio is great for giving frequent updates.

tylercollins · 26-08-2014 3:53pm

Simon Redfern

Stinicker · 26-08-2014 6:36pm

Cool, if this thing erupts we can expect a freezing cold winter as the 2010 eruption contributed to the subsequent big freeze here after.

26-08-2014 6:42pm

Stinicker wrote: »

Cool, if this thing erupts we can expect a freezing cold winter as the 2010 eruption contributed to the subsequent big freeze here after.

Don't you mean COLD!

rickdangerouss · 26-08-2014 6:52pm

he following points were the conclusion at a meeting of the Advisory Board today:
Intense seismicity continues. Over 500 events have been recorded since midnight.
Seismicity continues to migrate northward. Seismicity is now concentrated on the 10 km long tip of the dike extending 5 km beyond the edge of the Dyngjujökull glacier.
At 01:26 this morning an earthquake of magnitude 5,7 was observed beneath the
Bárðarbunga caldera.
The dyke beneath Dyngjujökull is now thought to be close to 40 km long. Modelling
of GPS data indicates that about 50 million cubic meters of magma have added to the volume in the last 24 hours.
There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining. The following three scenarios are still considered most likely:
The migration of magma could stop, accompanied by a gradual reduction in seismic activity.
The dike could reach the surface of the crust, starting an eruption. In this scenario, it is most likely that the eruption would be near the northern tip of the dyke. This would most likely produce an effusive lava eruption with limited explosive, ash-producing activity.
An alternate scenario would be the dyke reaching the surface where a significant part, or all, of the fissure is beneath the glacier. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárðarbunga caldera is possible but presently considered to be less likely.

There is still a good chance, nothing VEI will happen. Even if it does, I read max this can go till November. If you would like to be 100% sure of something, buy a plane ticket and rent a JCB, to help dig a hole or 4.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947

rickdangerouss · 26-08-2014 6:57pm

tylercollins wrote: »

Simon Redfern

Yes its allot of magma, What is required is another 10 times that much and more. This can happen if the mantle gets involved.

If it does, the earthquakes, will be in 5+ 6+ range and dozens of 4+ in a day.

http://www.wired.com/2014/08/icelandic-earthquake-swarm-heads-towards-askja-what-could-happen/

Great read above.

rickdangerouss · 26-08-2014 7:01pm

Stinicker wrote: »

Cool, if this thing erupts we can expect a freezing cold winter as the 2010 eruption contributed to the subsequent big freeze here after.

Please stop, you will be quoted as an weather expert in tomorrows daily express, Headlines will be; Winter is canceled, New season is called "Iceageson" Irish Expert advises the UK government in kobra meeting.

maquiladora · 27-08-2014 9:40am

Some more large quakes after midnight. Activity continuing within the Bárðarbunga caldera while the magma is still pushing in the general direction of the Askja volcanic system.

Iancar29 · 27-08-2014 10:39am

Some fairly strong quakes near the surface too... a 5. 2 and 4.5 . A M6 wouldnt be out of the question with all this activity..

yellowlabrador · 27-08-2014 10:54am

I'm thinking of buying some face masks for the event of a major eruption. I hope not to need them but signs are not good and all we need is a northwesterly wind I think this eruption might be similar to the fires of Skaftá in the 1780's

Tazio · 27-08-2014 12:48pm

yellowlabrador wrote: »

I'm thinking of buying some face masks for the event of a major eruption. I hope not to need them but signs are not good and all we need is a northwesterly wind I think this eruption might be similar to the fires of Skaftá in the 1780's

I had never heard of the Skaftáreldar ("Skaftá fires") eruption before.. a quick Google and found:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

That was a pretty impressive yet scary read to be honest..

rickdangerouss · 27-08-2014 1:34pm

Tazio wrote: »

I had never heard of the Skaftáreldar ("Skaftá fires") eruption before.. a quick Google and found:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

That was a pretty impressive yet scary read to be honest..

Yes, the Skaftáreldar ("Skaftá fires") is explained amazing well, Carl has spent years of studying on the subject, three parts to it and please do follow the forum too. Lots of people provide great articles on volcanoes in general.

In this case, very small chance of anything happening like that, coming from this event. Even if it did, Icelanders would face the problems, Europe could manage.

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2013/06/05/laki-deconstructed-anatomy-of-an-eruption/

maquiladora · 27-08-2014 4:18pm

Tazio wrote: »

I had never heard of the Skaftáreldar ("Skaftá fires") eruption before.. a quick Google and found:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

That was a pretty impressive yet scary read to be honest..

Large fissure eruptions have occurred in Iceland on average every ~270 years during historical times. It's just an average figure, but it shows that these types of events aren't super rare and it's inevitable that they will continue to occur. However, smaller fissure eruptions with much less impact are a lot more common, so statistically speaking it's more likely we will see one of those rather than a Laki-type event.

All we can do is wait and see. This could go on for days, weeks, months before an eruption occurs or there may not be any eruption at this time. Very interesting to watch though.

rickdangerouss · 27-08-2014 9:39pm

Stephen Hicks @seismo_steve ·
Earthquakes from #Bardarbunga dyke causing formation of ground fractures at edge of glacier HT @uni_iceland photo:

rickdangerouss · 27-08-2014 9:47pm

Photo

tomcosgrave · 27-08-2014 9:57pm

Reading about Laki etc - while I certainly don't expect the apocalypse to occur, I also don't think Europe really understands what might happen in terms of physical loss, environmental impact short-term or in terms of inconvenience if there is a really serious eruption - in fact, I don't think Europe has had a serious volcanic eruption at all since commercial flight became truly mainstream - nothing like say, Pinatubo in the Phillipines, St. Helens in the US or countries in South America. Vesuvius hasn't erupted since 1944 and that is due for an eruption in the next couple of decades as well as Iceland.

All in all it will be an interesting few years ahead and I suspect Eyjafjallajokull was only a taster.
Um, when I was typing in "Eyjafjallajokull" my spell checker suggested "ejaculatory"...heh!

maquiladora · 27-08-2014 10:53pm

Icelandic news are reporting that 6km long cracks have been discovered at Dyngjujökli. Civil Defense officials and scientists are meeting now to discuss the implications of this. National Crisis Coordination Center has been activated.

Earthquake activity still continuing, +1300 quakes since midnight though no large ones since the early hours of the morning.

maquiladora · 27-08-2014 11:12pm

Cauldron has been seen, can only be explained by magma melting the ice. Scientists now believe an eruption of sorts happened or is still happening inside the caldera.

"Melting in the glacier was revealed when the Coast Guard aircraft TF-SIF flew over Vatnajökull tonight. The Met Office said that this kind of melting has unlikely been cuased by anything other than an eruption."

tomcosgrave · 27-08-2014 11:54pm

"According to @almannavarnir there are no signs of harmonic tremors which would indicate magma and ice mixing." - @gislio (Gisli Olafsson)

maquiladora · 28-08-2014 12:01am

tomcosgrave wrote: »

"According to @almannavarnir there are no signs of harmonic tremors which would indicate magma and ice mixing." - @gislio (Gisli Olafsson)

Which means it probably happened during one of the previous tremor spikes and has ended now. Takes time for effects to be visible on the surface.

Iancar29 · 28-08-2014 12:03am

maquiladora wrote: »

Cauldron has been seen, can only be explained by magma melting the ice. Scientists now believe an eruption of sorts happened or is still happening inside the caldera.

"Melting in the glacier was revealed when the Coast Guard aircraft TF-SIF flew over Vatnajökull tonight. The Met Office said that this kind of melting has unlikely been cuased by anything other than an eruption."

That would explain the river level rising reports on twitter that i saw earlier .

would be interesting to find out if its an actually eruption albeit small one taking place or is there just some sub glacial steam venting off in some cracks that may have formed.

tomcosgrave · 28-08-2014 12:08am

maquiladora wrote: »

Which means it probably happened during one of the previous tremor spikes and has ended now. Takes time for effects to be visible on the surface.

This is what Olafsson is saying now.

maquiladora · 28-08-2014 12:11am

Iancar29 wrote: »

That would explain the river level rising reports on twitter that i saw earlier .

would be interesting to find out if its an actually eruption albeit small one taking place or is there just some sub glacial steam venting off in some cracks that may have formed.

Glacier is around 400m thick where cauldrons were seen, so it would have taken some significant heating for the effect to be seen on the surface, but may have been small scale.

maquiladora · 28-08-2014 9:55am

More earthquakes this morning both at the caldera and closer to Askja where the magma continues to push.

Another inspection flight is happening this morning to get a better idea of what the new features spotted on the surface might mean.

Duiske · 28-08-2014 9:56am

After a (relatively) calm previous 24hrs, seismic activity seems to be on the upswing again since midnight. 3 quakes of roughly mag 4, and a Mag 5 in the last 30 mins or so.

rickdangerouss · 28-08-2014 10:54am

Thursday 28.08.2014 08:13:40 64.666 -17.387 3.0 km 5.0 99.0 7.3 km ENE of Bárðarbunga. As per the IMO charts.

No spikes in the tremor. Just a normal day in Iceland.

rickdangerouss · 28-08-2014 11:22am

Picture of the area affected, for the quakes\cracks in the Ice\possible eruption

Iancar29 · 28-08-2014 12:25pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Glacier is around 400m thick where cauldrons were seen, so it would have taken some significant heating for the effect to be seen on the surface, but may have been small scale.

You'r right about that ! :eek:

"Satelital view of #Vatnajokull icefield showing clearly the #Bardarbunga #caldera under the #glacier #Iceland"

BwC_IGHCUAEbG37.jpg:large

rickdangerouss · 28-08-2014 1:58pm

Askja has gone to yellow. No news so far why this is the case. I understand the quakes are low and not so strong, but with the cracks visible
at ground level, could mean a pressure drop or things are developing quicker now.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanic-eruptions/

Also watch this video for the cracks outside and on top of the Glacier.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/sprungur-i-holuhrauni-a-myndbandi

maquiladora · 28-08-2014 2:03pm

rickdangerouss wrote: »

Askja has gone to yellow. No news so far why this is the case. I understand the quakes are low and not so strong, but with the cracks visible
at ground level, could mean a pressure drop or things are developing quicker now.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanic-eruptions/

Also watch this video for the cracks outside and on top of the Glacier.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/sprungur-i-holuhrauni-a-myndbandi

Askja upgraded to yellow due to increased signs of unrest. Magma is heading in that direction and a stress related quake of 4.5 there the other day was the biggest at Askja since 1992.

rickdangerouss · 28-08-2014 2:19pm

Gisli Olafsson ‏@gislio · 23m
Magma intrusion (dyke) from #Bardarbunga has reached #Askja system - ICAO alert code for Askja raised to Yellow. #ashtag

The One Doctor · 28-08-2014 3:08pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Askja upgraded to yellow due to increased signs of unrest. Magma is heading in that direction and a stress related quake of 4.5 there the other day was the biggest at Askja since 1992.

I'm going to assuming that's not good news.

Duiske · 28-08-2014 3:23pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Askja upgraded to yellow due to increased signs of unrest. Magma is heading in that direction and a stress related quake of 4.5 there the other day was the biggest at Askja since 1992.

There was a huge landslide off the slope of Askja near the end of July. Can't find any info on wether that was due to ground deformation, seismicity or just erosion. Just having a look at Askja on Google Earth, and it looks pretty similar to a post eruption Mt St.Helens (apart from the lake in the crater, obviously). Result of a huge eruption in late 1800's apparently.

The Iceland Volcano Thread

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