Originally Posted by derekon
Given your reputation as a notorious cold ramper (I refer to recent thread about cold from the 16th November onwards that never materialised), I take it you are being slightly sarcastic in the above post?!
Yeah it's sarcasm.
I am not a cold "ramper" btw. I like all sorts of weather. All weather has it's individual moments that I personally enjoy. Still i'd rather see something more interesting then what is currently forecast.
Rampant Jet Stream, Polar Vortex in the wrong place - preferably it (the blues and purples) should really be over Scandinavia and little in the teleconnections to be overjoyed at either because the AO and NAO across the board look like staying in positive territory for the time being reflected in the synoptic charts, high pressure to the South - low pressure to the North.
Hopefully the PV will weaken or move and the Jet Stream will amplify. We need everything to slow down. It's too fast. With the PV anywhere over Greenland and we ain't unlocking the door to cold weather. Hopefully we will eventually get some pressure rise there.
Things can change quickly though as we know. Forecast could be completely different tomorrow.
Max temperatures of 4 - 6c on Friday with a hard frost Friday night?
P.S derekon for the Winter ahead (i do dislike Winter forecasts btw - others here trust them more then I do) my own opinion is that it will be a cold Winter overall with plenty of ice and snow and that sort of craic but later in the season then last year. Can't see that kind of a major change until well into December at this stage. I am not confident about that. Just a feeling I have about it. MT goes into these forecasts in some detail. My advice would be to take his advice
The 18z GFS tonight is not too bad btw. Some encouraging signals early in the run for coldies.
Just an example from the 18z run of what we want to see. High pressure in the Atlantic anchored from Greenland means happy days! (although this is not perfect it's a good sign just to see it)