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View Poll Results: What will be average property price change by the end of 2021 (vs end of 2019)?
Increase 5 7.69%
Decrease 0-10% 24 36.92%
Fall 10-20% 24 36.92%
Fall 20-30% 10 15.38%
Fall Over 30% 2 3.08%
Voters: 65. You may not vote on this poll

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20-05-2020, 17:38   #16
Marius34
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Another report with House Price prediction, this one from ESRI.
https://www.esri.ie/system/files/pub...ns/WP661_0.pdf

Unfortunately they don't have base case scenario, but rather 2 scenarios: "V-shaped" & "Sluggish", which I believe would be equivalent of Optimistic & Pessimist scenarios.
In "V-shaped" scenario they see no change in price for 2021 Q4 vs 2020 Q1
In "Sluggish" scenario they see 12% decrease for 2021 Q4 vs 2020 Q1.
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29-05-2020, 11:38   #17
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3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for April. It has recorded a big increase in Household deposits (around €3 Billion), details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 April - 73,277 mil (decrease -74 mil MoM & -925 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 April - 115,978 mil (increase +2,981 mil MoM & +9,699 mil YoY)
https://www.centralbank.ie/statistic...ce-sheets-data

Last edited by Marius34; 29-05-2020 at 11:42.
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04-06-2020, 10:35   #18
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Mortgage Approvals 2020 April
Published Mortgage Approvals for April. First full month of the Lockdown.
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
decreased by 51.0% year-on-year to 1,034 while mover
purchase approval volumes decreased by 51.0%
year-on-year to 528."
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploa...20-for-web.pdf
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11-06-2020, 13:55   #19
Marius34
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Just reminder, Poll on the TOP of this Thread will close today at 10PM.
This should give an idea of general consensus for this Group.
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11-06-2020, 14:49   #20
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8.2% believe prices will increase!!!!!!???!!!!!
i admire the optimism!
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17-06-2020, 11:16   #21
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Today CSO published Residential Property Price Index April 2020.
Overly property price stable.
"Residential property prices increased by 0.5% nationally in the year to April."
"In Dublin, residential property prices decreased by 0.1% in the year to April "

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpub...ndexapril2020/
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30-06-2020, 13:42   #22
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Mortgage Approvals 2020 May
Second Month of lock-down, as expected April-June should show very low number of Approvals before some kind of recovery.
"First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage approval volumes decreased by 66.2% year-on-year to 852
while mover purchase approval volumes decreased by 67.3% year-on-year to 424."

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploa...t-May-2020.pdf
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30-06-2020, 13:50   #23
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3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for May. It has recorded another big increase in Household deposits (around €1,5 Billion), but not as big as in April.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 May- 73,177 mil (decrease -98 mil MoM & -1,123 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 May- 117,490 mil (increase +1,483 mil MoM & +10,489 mil YoY)
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30-06-2020, 21:32   #24
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Thanks Marius, very useful reports today.
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30-07-2020, 10:05   #25
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Mortgage Approvals 2020 June
Approval slightly higher from lowest month of May, but still only around 50% of Pre-Covid.
"Mortgage approval activity decreased in volume terms by 49.5% year-on-year"
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
decreased by 54.6% year-on-year"
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploa...20-for-web.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q2
"Mortgage drawdown activity fell in volume terms by 34.8% year-on-year"
"First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes decreased by 34.8% year-on-year"
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploa...rt-Q2-2020.pdf
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31-07-2020, 12:55   #26
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3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
Update for June. Another increase in Household deposits (around €0,8 Billion), but lowest increase since lockdown.
Details below.
Loans for Private House Purchase:
2020 Jun- 73,390 mil (increase +213 mil MoM & decrease -1,069 mil YoY),
Private Household deposits:
2020 Jun- 118,301 mil (increase +835 mil MoM & +10,549 mil YoY)

Last edited by Marius34; 31-07-2020 at 13:06.
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19-08-2020, 10:24   #27
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I have missed prediction from AIB.

This is the base case scenario for their predictions:

Metric202020212022
GDP-7.5%6.3%3.5%
Unemployment10.0%9.0%7.1%
House Price-5.5%-4.5%4.0%

https://aib.ie/content/dam/aib/inves...ation-2020.pdf

Last edited by Marius34; 19-08-2020 at 10:28.
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25-08-2020, 18:50   #28
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Thought there would be more interest in this thread.

The market is stalled at the moment for a variety of reasons. So its in a bubble. So the data comparisons are really only reflecting that pause on economic activity.
It will be while before a useful trend appears. Once the existing pent up demand, and existing supply have been depleted, then we'll start to see to more clearly.
Some of these predictions, especially if they were based on pre covid estimates are largely irrelevant now.
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25-08-2020, 20:59   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beauf View Post
Thought there would be more interest in this thread.

The market is stalled at the moment for a variety of reasons. So its in a bubble. So the data comparisons are really only reflecting that pause on economic activity.
It will be while before a useful trend appears. Once the existing pent up demand, and existing supply have been depleted, then we'll start to see to more clearly.
Some of these predictions, especially if they were based on pre covid estimates are largely irrelevant now.
The predictions by KBC, ESRI was create during the full lockdown in May. AIB in July.
I haven't seen any other predictions so far for Irish property on Covid times.
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25-08-2020, 21:12   #30
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This has to be based on last year, what happened the last crash and the unpredictable repercussions of the pandemic. Which are still reverberating around the world. So largely unknown.

That said I can't see it being worse than the previous crashes or as quick. I can't see it being v shaped or bouncing back either. I don't believe Chinas reports. So some middle ground in all that.

Which is why comparing all the figures as you have done puts this in context. I think another part of the puzzle is comparing it with the crash.

What do you think.
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