US Presidential Election 2020

everlast75 · 15-09-2020 5:53pm

briany wrote: »

Hey, in the case that Trump loses and he really wants to claim the election was rigged, he's perfectly welcome to challenge the result in a court of law.

I know he won't do that, as his aim is more to fire up the base and try some sort of constitutional jiggery-pokery that keeps him in office, but it seems to me that being allowed another term where you might not actually have won the election is a thing that cannot be stood for. So get your lawyers, get your evidence, and put it to the SC.

I was speaking to a mate and I suggested that Trump might try some very extreme tactics if he loses the vote. My mate reckoned I was being over the top.

I asked if, in 2016, he would have thought that Trump would be calling the FBI scum. the press the enemy of the people , that he would excuse extra-judicial killings, that he would be inciting a race war etc etc.

I suggested that we are all in a situation where day to day, we are being worn down by the endless stream of lawlessness and asked if my suggestion was too much of a stretch considering all that has gone before and the direction it is all heading.

He moved from "that will never happen" to "I hope that will never happen"

TomOnBoard · 15-09-2020 7:04pm

briany wrote: »

Hey, in the case that Trump loses and he really wants to claim the election was rigged, he's perfectly welcome to challenge the result in a court of law.

I know he won't do that, as his aim is more to fire up the base and try some sort of constitutional jiggery-pokery that keeps him in office, but it seems to me that being allowed another term where you might not actually have won the election is a thing that cannot be stood for. So get your lawyers, get your evidence, and put it to the SC.

Agreed! And I read a report in the last few days that the Biden Campaign is building up a strong legal team already to prepare for the legal fight...

So, Team Trump, through Caputo/Stone says prepare by buying bullets (coz theyre gonna be in such short supply by years end). Team Biden says prepare by hiring lawyers...

Spot the Difference!

Quin_Dub · 15-09-2020 7:11pm

everlast75 wrote: »

I was speaking to a mate and I suggested that Trump might try some very extreme tactics if he loses the vote. My mate reckoned I was being over the top.

I asked if, in 2016, he would have thought that Trump would be calling the FBI scum. the press the enemy of the people , that he would excuse extra-judicial killings, that he would be inciting a race war etc etc.

I suggested that we are all in a situation where day to day, we are being worn down by the endless stream of lawlessness and asked if my suggestion was too much of a stretch considering all that has gone before and the direction it is all heading.

He moved from "that will never happen" to "I hope that will never happen"

There is absolutely no question that the Overton window has shifted towards authoritarianism over the last 4 years and it has been moving for a while in truth in the US but the shift has been more pronounced since 2016.

There are a whole host of things happening right now , that if people were asked were they possible 4 or 5 years ago they would have laughed or you'd be called a crank.

The far left aren't helping either to be honest with the cancel culture and extreme gender politics that some are pursuing.

However they do not have the tacit support of Government and it's apparatus (nor are they likely to get it to anything like the same extent) that the far-right have been receiving in spades over the last 4 years.

everlast75 · 16-09-2020 12:43pm

The town hall meeting last night for Trump was car crash stuff. He was asked questions by the people present (as pretty much defined by what a town hall meeting is) and it was so bad, Fox were calling it an ambush.

here is a *partial* fact check

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1306078114942980097?s=20

He was fact checked in real time by the host and those asking questions too, and seemed transparently nonsensical. As someone online commented, Joe Biden won the debate and he didn't even turn up.

briany · 16-09-2020 1:47pm

If Joe Biden had said, "Herd mentality" instead of "Herd immunity", Trump supporters would be going, "Oh, I've heard enough. Please, for that man's own good, send him to an assisted living facility this minute!". But when Trump says it, crickets. I wonder why that is? Hey, if you're going to make an armchair diagnosis about Biden having dementia, you could at least try to seem even-handed about it and make the same diagnosis for your own man. Every time Trump is put in a halfway impartial interview setting, he's rambling and barely coherent in his train of thought, and has worryingly weak answers for many of the questions put to him.

Muahahaha · 16-09-2020 1:55pm

Saw a clip of that town hall and Trump looked flustered, a black man asked him when was America ever great for black people and he wasnt able to answer.

briany · 16-09-2020 2:14pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Saw a clip of that town hall and Trump looked flustered, a black man asked him when was America ever great for black people and he wasnt able to answer.

He gave a sort of answer, but it was laughably short of specifics. I hope this is a fair summation to say that he said that African American prosperity was at an all-time high under his own administration and this has only changed because of, to use Trump's own words, the Chinavirus.

Water John · 16-09-2020 3:37pm

Here is a 14 day poll tracker from the Guardian on 8 key swing states. to be looked at taking the caveats in the script into account;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/sep/16/election-polls-latest-trump-biden-us-presidential-vote-2020-who-is-winning-tracker
This is interactive so, if you put the cursor on any dot within a graph it gives you that exact poll data.

Biden possibly taking 4 and the other 4 are toss ups.

Quin_Dub · 16-09-2020 4:01pm

Water John wrote: »

Here is a 14 day poll tracker from the Guardian on 8 key swing states. to be looked at taking the caveats in the script into account;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/sep/16/election-polls-latest-trump-biden-us-presidential-vote-2020-who-is-winning-tracker
This is interactive so, if you put the cursor on any dot within a graph it gives you that exact poll data.

Biden possibly taking 4 and the other 4 are toss ups.

If you look at the current state of play and assume that Biden will secure all of the same Sates that Clinton did , giving him 232 and then just take those 4 States were he currently has leads beyond the MoE - Pennsylvania , Michigan , Wisconsin and Arizona - that takes him beyond 270 to 289 Electoral college votes.

North Carolina or Florida would just be gravy after that.

Water John · 16-09-2020 4:05pm

Agree, it's positive for him but push on hard to the line.
Trump is banking on Florida to go to him, fairly or unfairly with DeSantis in his pocket.

briany · 16-09-2020 4:27pm

Water John wrote: »

Agree, it's positive for him but push on hard to the line.
Trump is banking on Florida to go to him, fairly or unfairly with DeSantis in his pocket.

Ominously enough, the Ohio poll looks to be neck and neck. Ohio's knack of predicting who the president-elect will be has been almost uncanny. According to this article, the state has only disagreed the eventual winner on two occasions since 1896.

Now, that's not to say that an Ohio win for Trump has an inherent meaning, but its electoral history makes it seem like a microcosm of the overall race. However, this race is anything but typical, but Dems would serve themselves well not to be too complacent and listen to what voters there are saying.

Water John · 16-09-2020 4:31pm

Three of the four states strongly for Biden in that group will take days to declare. PA, WI, MH all don't start counting mail in ballots until the polls close. That's 46 possible electoral votes for Biden.
Now you see why Trump wants to legitimise, the result on the night.

Quin_Dub · 16-09-2020 4:47pm

Water John wrote: »

Three of the four states strongly for Biden in that group will take days to declare. PA, WI, MH all don't start counting mail in ballots until the polls close. That's 46 possible electoral votes for Biden.
Now you see why Trump wants to legitimise, the result on the night.

Indeed , but as I mentioned earlier - All of those States have a Democrat Secretary of State , so no result will be called until the all the votes are counted.

Given that there likely won't be a single precinct with a completed count on Election night I'm not sure if there'll be any "early" indicators out there.

Having said that , I'm not sure what the rules are surrounding the provision of Interim count results. I'm assuming that there are tally-men or something similar in the count centres as we have here , but not sure how widely their data is shared?

Brussels Sprout · 16-09-2020 4:59pm

briany wrote: »

Ominously enough, the Ohio poll looks to be neck and neck. Ohio's knack of predicting who the president-elect will be has been almost uncanny. According to this article, the state has only disagreed the eventual winner on two occasions since 1896.

Now, that's not to say that an Ohio win for Trump has an inherent meaning, but its electoral history makes it seem like a microcosm of the overall race. However, this race is anything but typical, but Dems would serve themselves well not to be too complacent and listen to what voters there are saying.

I think it's very likely this time out that Biden will lose Ohio but win the election.

Ohio has moved quite a bit to the right in recent years while states like Arizona and North Carolina have become more winnable to compensate while at the same time ex-swing states like Virginia and Colorado have become more solidly blue.

An Ciarraioch · 16-09-2020 9:57pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I think it's very likely this time out that Biden will lose Ohio but win the election.

Ohio has moved quite a bit to the right in recent years while states like Arizona and North Carolina have become more winnable to compensate while at the same time ex-swing states like Virginia and Colorado have become more solidly blue.

Moreover, even Georgia, which had been solidly red for the last 20 years, has become a toss up in this year's state polling.

Tell me how · 16-09-2020 10:05pm

I drove past a Republican Campaign office in a town in New Hampshire a few days ago.

There was a massive poster out front saying 'Make America Great Again' and a massive poster on the window saying 'Keep America Great Again'. The conflicting message looks very amateurish and it actually looks as if those 'Make America Great Again' signs are leftovers from 4 years ago.

PopePalpatine · 16-09-2020 10:22pm

Maybe the pandemic reset the "greatness" levels to the Obama administration?

droidus · 16-09-2020 10:46pm

Ohio has been touch and go for a while now. 2 points in favour of Trump atm, but its worth noting that all of Trump's swing state leads - Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Texas - are in the margin of error.

In general, the economist model swung back up 2 points to 86% today and the 538 poll is converging towards similar numbers. There was also a ridiculous poll from Maine tonight showing Biden with a 21pt lead and a 36pt lead amongst seniors, more evidence that suggests Susan Collins is finished.

Water John · 16-09-2020 10:48pm

Trump said tonight it will be very safe to go and vote on Nov 3rd as Covid will be much lower!!!

Overheal · 16-09-2020 10:53pm

SC just signed a Covid Absentee voting bill. All state voters can now register for an absentee ballot.

marno21 · 17-09-2020 1:40am

In addition to the Maine poll above, Maine Senate poll out today has Susan Collins down 54-42. That’s quite a drop considering she won 68% of the vote in 2014.

Same pollsters also did:

South Carolina:
Graham 48
Harrison 48

Kentucky:
McConnell 53
McGrath 41

Kentucky one is disappointingly unsurprising but the SC Senate race looks like it could be a close one.

Rjd2 · 17-09-2020 4:35pm

marno21 wrote: »

In addition to the Maine poll above, Maine Senate poll out today has Susan Collins down 54-42. That’s quite a drop considering she won 68% of the vote in 2014.

Same pollsters also did:

South Carolina:
Graham 48
Harrison 48

Kentucky:
McConnell 53
McGrath 41

Kentucky one is disappointingly unsurprising but the SC Senate race looks like it could be a close one.

Mc Grath was always going to bomb. Essentially the left wing version of Nikki Haley, adored by those in charge of the party and the donor's, but not got much of a base whatsoever outside online "resistance!!!!" types.

That's very grim numbers for Collins, do recall I think before 2020 that was considered a somewhat safe hold for her, she can still win, but odds clearly against her.

DK224 · 17-09-2020 10:02pm

marno21 wrote: »

In addition to the Maine poll above, Maine Senate poll out today has Susan Collins down 54-42. That’s quite a drop considering she won 68% of the vote in 2014.

Same pollsters also did:

South Carolina:
Graham 48
Harrison 48

Kentucky:
McConnell 53
McGrath 41

Kentucky one is disappointingly unsurprising but the SC Senate race looks like it could be a close one.

I would be wary of putting a lot stock on Quinnipiac polls based on their recent history.
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Itssoeasy · 17-09-2020 10:44pm

droidus wrote: »

Ohio has been touch and go for a while now. 2 points in favour of Trump atm, but its worth noting that all of Trump's swing state leads - Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Texas - are in the margin of error.

In general, the economist model swung back up 2 points to 86% today and the 538 poll is converging towards similar numbers. There was also a ridiculous poll from Maine tonight showing Biden with a 21pt lead and a 36pt lead amongst seniors, more evidence that suggests Susan Collins is finished.

Susan Collins is done. She stood up for trump and she in all likelihood will feel the political consequences of that but so should all the rest. It looks like Mitch McConnell is opening up a lead of his challenger but Lindsay Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina.

TomOnBoard · 17-09-2020 10:50pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Susan Collins is done. She stood up for trump and she in all likelihood will feel the political consequences of that but so should all the rest. It looks like Mitch McConnell is opening up a lead of his challenger but Lindsay Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina.

If you could guarantee that Collins and Graham would be toast, I'd leave Mc Connell with his seat. He will be annihilated in the internal conflagration that will engulf the Republican Party and ALL Trump sycophants and enablers if/when Trump cancer is excised from the GOP.

AbusesToilets · 17-09-2020 10:57pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Susan Collins is done. She stood up for trump and she in all likelihood will feel the political consequences of that but so should all the rest. It looks like Mitch McConnell is opening up a lead of his challenger but Lindsay Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina.

It's incredible McConnell persists, one of the most insincere and odious individuals I've ever come across in politics. His wife is a crook too, up to her nose in self enrichment schemes.

marno21 · 17-09-2020 11:07pm

McConnell is a shrewd political operator. He may have bent the US Senate over and destroyed it for as long as he's been in power but in the partisan environment of 2020 he is ideal for the GOP. There is no low to which he won't go to get what he wants.

McConnell will keep his seat. Kentucky is a deep red state and McGrath is a weak candidate. As of right now I can see the Dems picking up Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Iowa and possibly NC and Montana. Iowa was previously Lean R but the polling Biden is getting in the Upper Midwest and the lack of reliable Iowa polling makes this an interesting tossup. Dems to retain Michigan and Minnesota but lose Alabama. 51-49 possibly to the Dems.

Water John · 17-09-2020 11:14pm

If Trump wins and the Dems turn the Senate, things would get really interesting. Highly unlikely as it seems Trump is dragging down the rest of the ballot.

TomOnBoard · 17-09-2020 11:53pm

James Comey (remember him?) is due to testify before Graham's Senate Judiciary Committee on Sept 30.

I'm not so sure its a wise move for Graham to have him in just weeks before the Election. Like, Jimmy Boy has a bit of a history of doing things that affect elections... Just sayin'...

Maybe Redemption is on Jimmy's mind???

TomOnBoard · 17-09-2020 11:55pm

Water John wrote: »

If Trump wins and the Dems turn the Senate, things would get really interesting. Highly unlikely as it seems Trump is dragging down the rest of the ballot.

Look upon that as Plan C... If Trump wins and Dems take the Senate and retain the House, Impeachment No. 2 by August 2021.

StringerBell · 18-09-2020 12:36am

AbusesToilets wrote: »

It's incredible McConnell persists, one of the most insincere and odious individuals I've ever come across in politics. His wife is a crook too, up to her nose in self enrichment schemes.

This is a rare occasion (in politics at least) where I am in total agreement with you on both counts.

He persists the same reason most do I guess, power and greed. I give the devil his due, but when he is gone everyone will be better off.

Overheal · 18-09-2020 6:25am

AbusesToilets wrote: »

It's incredible McConnell persists, one of the most insincere and odious individuals I've ever come across in politics. His wife is a crook too, up to her nose in self enrichment schemes.

Amen!

5GMadeMeDoIt · 18-09-2020 6:45am

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Susan Collins is done. She stood up for trump and she in all likelihood will feel the political consequences of that but so should all the rest. It looks like Mitch McConnell is opening up a lead of his challenger but Lindsay Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina.

I wonder will this make the republicans think twice about going for a new Trump in the future. I think it really hurts them in Congress. It makes winning blue states nearly impossible and winning light red states much harder.

Susan Collins had nowhere to go. Attacking Trump would have lost her the race as his base would abandon her and not ditching him makes it impossible to pick up light blues and even some light reds.

duploelabs · 18-09-2020 7:51am

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Look upon that as Plan C... If Trump wins and Dems take the Senate and retain the House, Impeachment No. 2 by August 2021.

Impeachment 2: Electric boogaloo.

Seriously though, losing the senate along with a Dem house would mean curtains for Trump. Can't magine what charade might happen if that were to happen

Quin_Dub · 18-09-2020 8:36am

TomOnBoard wrote: »

James Comey (remember him?) is due to testify before Graham's Senate Judiciary Committee on Sept 30.

I'm not so sure its a wise move for Graham to have him in just weeks before the Election. Like, Jimmy Boy has a bit of a history of doing things that affect elections... Just sayin'...

Maybe Redemption is on Jimmy's mind???

That is the day after the 1st debate - Clearly an attempt to shift the news narrative on the day after the debate.

It might or might not work.

No doubt it will provide Fox with a few "clips" of some GOP Senator launching some diatribe about the "Witchhunt".

But as you say will be interesting if Comey decides that the gloves are off and just goes for it.

StringerBell · 18-09-2020 8:53am

5GMadeMeDoIt wrote: »

I wonder will this make the republicans think twice about going for a new Trump in the future. I think it really hurts them in Congress. It makes winning blue states nearly impossible and winning light red states much harder.

Susan Collins had nowhere to go. Attacking Trump would have lost her the race as his base would abandon her and not ditching him makes it impossible to pick up light blues and even some light reds.

Nah the benefits to them putting forward a competent politician who can act trumpian for the base far outweigh the costs, control of the SC and jurisprudence for multiple generations for one thing.

5GMadeMeDoIt · 18-09-2020 9:11am

StringerBell wrote: »

Nah the benefits to them putting forward a competent politician who can act trumpian for the base far outweigh the costs, control of the SC and jurisprudence for multiple generations for one thing.

I've heard a few people say that the danger is what happens when the GOP find a 'competent' Trump. Surely a very large component of what makes Trump what he is, IS his incompetence. His stupidity is an essential ingredient in his makeup. It lets him get away with what he gets away with because it is pretty much impossible to engage him on any sort of intellectual level. Once a politician engages on an intellectual level, they are there for the taking.

Short of finding someone smart who is able to act like Trump 100% of the time without breaking character, 'Competent Trump' is an oxymoron.

StringerBell · 18-09-2020 9:17am

All they have to do is follow the blueprint of how he carries on publicly, and for his audience and tweak it so that he can actually make deals behind the scenes. Have an actual plan that goes beyond "will I look good here, was I strong?" "Is it ever enough orange make-up?"

A competent politician playing the role of the idiot is well within their ability. Look at Boris.

Igotadose · 18-09-2020 12:17pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.axios.com/fbi-director-russia-election-ac152f12-a992-4882-8677-b7d5d16dc918.html

In the meantime we have the FBI director confirming a

Politically its going to be very interesting to see in which fashion will Trump come down on him now, he cant be too harsh as that sort blows his "law and order" message out of the water (tho its already sinking due to all the holes in the hull)

This one's easy. They'll do nothing. Some noise and bluster and I'm sure an investigation scheduled for late November/December if anyone bothers to look.

Quin_Dub · 18-09-2020 12:43pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.axios.com/fbi-director-russia-election-ac152f12-a992-4882-8677-b7d5d16dc918.html

In the meantime we have the FBI director confirming a

Politically its going to be very interesting to see in which fashion will Trump come down on him now, he cant be too harsh as that sort blows his "law and order" message out of the water (tho its already sinking due to all the holes in the hull)

He's already tweeted trying to claim that China is the bigger threat because of mail-in voting blah blah blah

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1306749921173762049

And as you can see , Tweeter have his it with a "Learn how Mail-in voting is safe and secure" warning.

everlast75 · 18-09-2020 9:14pm

Out with somebody else's chequebook. The only way he solves his problems...

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1306980319384555526?s=19

Too little to late, given his disgusting remarks previously?

Or will this win voters over?

Timberrrrrrrr · 18-09-2020 9:20pm

everlast75 wrote: »

Out with somebody else's chequebook. The only way he solves his problems...

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1306980319384555526?s=19

Too little to late, given his disgusting remarks previously?

Or will this win voters over?

I suppose throwing Billions of dollars at them is better than throwing paper towels like he did before.

TomOnBoard · 18-09-2020 9:30pm

Michael Moore, who called Trump's victory more or less right, is saying that the Biden campaign in his home state of Michigan is even poorer than Hillary's was in 2016. Trump squeaked through in Michigan. Moore claims that there is little campaign presence on the ground and an almost total failure to engage with black and hispanic voters with most of the limited obvious attention being paid to try and take votes from Trump by focusing on Republican leaning undecideds.

Water John · 18-09-2020 9:52pm

Biden speaking ATM in Minnesota, quite impressive.

Gbear · 18-09-2020 11:21pm

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Michael Moore, who called Trump's victory more or less right, is saying that the Biden campaign in his home state of Michigan is even poorer than Hillary's was in 2016. Trump squeaked through in Michigan. Moore claims that there is little campaign presence on the ground and an almost total failure to engage with black and hispanic voters with most of the limited obvious attention being paid to try and take votes from Trump by focusing on Republican leaning undecideds.

Is that maybe down to the whole plague thing going on?

everlast75 · 19-09-2020 7:12am

RBG has passed away. R.I.P.

Now, you understand McConnell's standing on appointing a SC judge? Merrick Garland?

Well, not anymore!

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1307119186230022156?s=19

Trump's only chance of winning imho is via the courts, so they'll try cram another one through.

Brian? · 19-09-2020 7:22am

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Michael Moore, who called Trump's victory more or less right, is saying that the Biden campaign in his home state of Michigan is even poorer than Hillary's was in 2016. Trump squeaked through in Michigan. Moore claims that there is little campaign presence on the ground and an almost total failure to engage with black and hispanic voters with most of the limited obvious attention being paid to try and take votes from Trump by focusing on Republican leaning undecideds.

In fairness Moore is a doom monger, he was right about Trump but only because he kept predicting the worst.

I refuse to believe that the Dems wouldn't learn something from 2016. They're spending big where it needs to be spent. If they can flip Florida, Trump is done. Michigan can't save him.

StringerBell · 19-09-2020 9:13am

Is there any chance that McConnell ramming through the federalist society's next judge will be the act that seals their doom in the White House and the senate?

Obviously the base will be happy I don't mean it will turn anyone but it may be an appalling enough act of hypocrisy and callousness so close to the election that it has an impact on any remaining fence sitters etc?

You can expect nothing from a pig other than a grunt so the nomination process will only go one way, this opportunity is too big for them to turn down but surely, surely this time there will be repercussions for how truly disgusting their behaviour is?

Maybe I'm being too naive.

Igotadose · 19-09-2020 9:17am

StringerBell wrote: »

Is there any chance that McConnell ramming through the federalist society's next judge will be the act that seals their doom in the White House and the senate?

Obviously the base will be happy I don't mean it will turn anyone but it may be an appalling enough act of hypocrisy and callousness so close to the election that it has an impact on any remaining fence sitters etc?

You can expect nothing from a pig other than a grunt so the nomination process will only go one way, this opportunity is too big for them to turn down but surely, surely this time there will be repercussions for how truly disgusting their behaviour is?

Maybe I'm being too naive.

Very good chance. There's a list of names out there already (read this on some RW rag this a.m.) Moscow Mitch has already released a statement that they would.

StringerBell · 19-09-2020 9:33am

Igotadose wrote: »

Very good chance. There's a list of names out there already (read this on some RW rag this a.m.) Moscow Mitch has already released a statement that they would.

No I know he will, sorry you must have misunderstood the post. Without doubt he is going to fill that position, or at least he will be desperately trying, if you re read the post you'll see I'm asking what effect that might have on the election.

US Presidential Election 2020

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