22nd March 2012 - Major Earthquake event maybe? ?

It was 2 days early

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16192717

Diamond Dust wrote: »

Some more info on it:The historical and geological records say the Earth and particularly the Pacific Ring of Fire will experience a 9+ magnitude quake event on March 22, 2012 @ 4:58:34 UTC where Earth axis is expected to shift 5+ inches. Earth experienced a simlar event on February 27, 2010 and March 11, 2011 and we expect the 188-day Cycle Pattern to continue.

Here's hoping the pattern is wrong

From what source are you getting your information? Any links?

This may have a physical significance but if so, the period would be slightly variable on a mean of about 199.5 days on a longer time scale. The "mass equator" of the solar system is a constantly rotating entity which is dominated by Jupiter and Saturn (and of course the Sun but that is a fixed point in the system). The way to visualize this would be a slightly curved line that always joins Jupiter, Saturn and the Sun and extends beyond the Sun when both planets are on the same side (as of April 2011 they were on opposite sides and the cycle of this same-side then opposite-side alignment is 19.85 years).

The earth will pass through this mass equator twice every 399 days which is the mean period of Jupiter oppositions. That gives a mean period of 199.5 days, but this will be somewhat variable with a faster period around the current alignment (opposite) and a slower period when Jupiter overtakes Saturn. So the current period is actually closer to 188 days than 199.5 days, although from my rough sketch it looks closer to 193 days at this point. However, also from the same sketch, the earthquakes cited are not located where the earth moves through the mass equator, but closer to approach points about 30 degrees ahead of the mass equator.

Since Jupiter dominates the position of this mass equator, I had a quick look at earthquake dates relative to the 399 day period of Jupiter oppositions and conjunctions, taking about 30 major earthquakes for which I had the dates available from memory (examples the Nov 1755 quake in Lisbon, the Sept 1923 quake in Japan, the July 1976 quake in China, the Jan 1995 Kobe quake, Sept 1985 Mexico City). There has been a tendency for these to align with peaks about 2-3 months after Jupiter conjunction and then 2-3 months before (in other words, more displaced from Jupiter opposition than Jupiter conjunction, but generally avoiding dates close to either).

This may not help explain a 188-day cycle recently, except that it is not vastly out of sync with the longer-scale process implied above, which is that the earth is more prone to violent shaking when it reaches some critical angle to the mass equator that is somewhere between a right angle and transit and generally close to 30 degrees.

This has enhanced my interest in the concept and I will follow up by locating a reliable list of 100-200 major earthquakes since 1755 plotting these on a time series that is oriented to Jupiter's "synodic year" and also within 20-year segments to see if there is a second-order variation visible. This may take a week or two, so don't expect to see this right away. Just the first rough sketch of it looks interesting.

I could note also that 188 days is very close to the half-period of Saturn's synodic year which would be 189.04 days and that of course varies slightly with Saturn's orbital eccentricity -- at the present time it is slowing and near its long-term average but probably varies from about 188 to 190 days. (in somewhat plainer English, this is the period between Saturn oppositions and conjunctions). Other variables that make this less than perfectly linear would be earth's own orbital eccentricity and any curved aspects to the solar system mass equator. So in general the system would not be expected to produce perfect alignments of dates but could show a clustering effect.

If anyone has a list of major earthquakes or a link, please help me out because your list will add a measure of objectivity. However, I will look for something like a list of 7.0+ or earthquakes by damage/casualty stats to generate a data set.

This is a first approximation of how the earthquake vs J-year system would look graphically ...

The years are arranged in clusters. Every 83 years Jupiter returns to similar opposition dates. Every 12 years these move forward 5-6 days. The series resets when the 84th year is also one synodic year ahead. Conveniently, the series can start with 1753 (1836, 1919, 2002) with 1-2 Jan oppositions.

The chart will show 399-day segments (varying from 395 to 404 days with the shortest periods in the top half, the longer ones in the bottom half, due to Jupiter's variable speed from aphelion in the March oppositions around 2004 to perihelion in the September oppositions, around the 1962-74-86 segments).

The chart then looks like this (to keep the years in three columns, years from 1753 to 1763 are not shown, 1755 goes with 1838,1921,2004) :

1836.1919.2002 .................................|.................................
1765.1848.1931 .................................|.................................
1777.1860.1943 .................................|.................................
1789.1872.1955 .................................|.................................
1801.1884.1967 .................................|.................................
1813.1896.1979 ................................|.................................
1825.1908.1991 ................................|.........................13.....
1837.1920.2003 ................................|.................................
1766.1849.1932 ................................|.................................
1778.1861.1944 ................................|.................................
1790.1873.1956 ................................|.................................
1802.1885.1968 ................................|.................................
1814.1897.1980 ...............V...............|.................................
1826.1909.1992 ................................|.................................
1838.1921.2004 ................................|........1............14.........
1767.1850.1933 ................................|.................................
1779.1862.1945 .................................|.................................
1791.1874.1957 .................................|.................................
1803.1886.1969 .................................|.................................
1815.1898.1981 ...V............................|.................................
1827.1910.1993 .................................|...............10...............
1839.1922.2005 .................................|.................................
1768.1851.1934 .................................|.................................
1780.1863.1946 .................................|.................................
1792.1875.1958 .................................|.................................
1804.1887.1970 .................................|.................................
1816.1899.1982 .................................|.................................
1828.1911.1994 .................................|.........9.......................
1840.1923.2006 ....................4...........|.................................
1769.1852.1935 .................................|.................................
1781.1864.1947 .................................|.................................
1793.1876.1959 .................................|...........................12...
1805.1888.1971 .................................|.................................
1817.1900.1983 .................................|.................................
1829.1912.1995 .................................|.................................
1841.1924.2007 .................................|.................................
1770.1853.1936 ..................................|.................................
1782,1865.1948 ..................................|.................................
1794.1877.1960 ..................................|.................................
1806,1889.1972 ..................................|.................................
1818.1901.1984 ..................................|.................................
1830.1913.1996 ..................................|.................................
1842,1925,2008 ..................................|.................................
1771.1854.1937 ..................................|.................................
1783,1866.1949 ..................................|.................................
1795.1878.1961 ..................................|.................................
1807,1890.1973 ..................................|.................................
1819.1902.1985 ..........8......................|.................................
1831.1914.1997 ..................................|.................................
1843,1926,2009 .........................6.......|15..........................11..
1772.1855.1938 ..................................|.................................
1784,1867.1950 ..................................|.................................
1796.1879.1962 ..................................|.................................
1808,1891.1974 ..................................|.................................
1820.1903.1986 ..................................|.................................
1832.1915.1998 ..................................|.................................
1844,1927,2010 .............................7...|.................................
1773.1856.1939 ..................................|.................................
1785,1868.1951 ..................................|.................................
1797.1880.1963 ..................................|.................................
1809,1892.1975 ..................................|..............5.................
1821.1904.1987 .................................|.................................
1833.1916.1999 .................................|.................................
1845,1928,2011 ..................(now).......|.................................
1774.1857.1940 .................................|.................................
1786,1869.1952 .................................|.................................
1798.1881.1964 .................................|.................................
1810,1893.1976 .................................|.............................2..
1822.1905.1988 .......................3........|.................................
1834.1917.2000 .................................|.................................
1846,1929,2012 ................................|.................................
1775.1858.1941 ................................|.................................
1787.1870.1953 ................................|.................................
1799.1882.1965 ................................|............V...................
1811.1894.1977 ................................|.................................
1823.1906.1989 ................................|.................................

(these years have no oppositions and earth time is contained in chart above)
1835.1918.2001 ................................|.................................
1764.1847.1930 ................................|.................................
1776.1859.1942 ................................|.................................
1788.1871.1954 ................................|.................................
1800.1883.1966 ................................|.................................
1812.1895.1978 ................................|.................................
1824.1907.1990 ................................|.................................

cumulative stats....V....8....V...4.3.6..7..|15...1..9V..10,5141312.2,11.

Each line in the graph starts with a Jupiter opposition. Each dot represents six days. The vertical lines are dates of Jupiter conjunctions. To get an overview of how time moves through the chart, the first line represents years starting Jan 1st and running to about Feb 4th of the next year with Jupiter conjunctions in mid-July. Moving down the chart, these periods advance about 5-6 days for each line. This places more and more time into the following year until the last line deals with years with a late December opposition and almost all the time in the following earth year. The truncated lower portion of the chart shows years that are covered by the chart in previous year oppositions. The present time (21 Mar 2012) is indicated by the middle letter of "now" in the line marked 2011 (Jupiter was in opposition last 29 October, conjunction will be in mid-May). To give an idea of the time scale, the span of time in the full bracket is about 1 Mar to 15 Apr.

Earthquakes are shown on the chart in the dot position closest to their date of occurrence. This locates them relative to Jupiter oppositions and conjunctions. A second chart would be required to show positions relative to the 20-year cycle which occurs at random relative to this time scale. The chart can be expanded to include various other earthquakes or other events such as major volcanoes (a few are shown as V). The earthquake events are number coded and the chart re-aligned so that one or more dots may be missing to keep the alignment (as visually shown by the conjunction vertical axis which is slightly sinusoidal to reflect the varying lengths of this Jupiter synodic year).

Notice the clustering of events about 30-60 days before Jupiter conjunctions (left of vertical line) and before opposition (right side of chart) in the "cumulative" line.

Earthquakes are as follows (by number key) ...

1 .. Lisbon 01-11-1755
2 .. New Madrid 16-12-1811
3 .. San Fran 19-04-1906
4 .. Yokohama 01-09-1923
5 .. Manchuria 27-07-1976
6 .. Haiti 12-01-2010
7 .. Japan 11-03-2011
8 .. Mexico 17-09-1985
9 .. Kobe 14-01-1995
10 . Northridge CA 14-01-1994
11 . NZ 04-09-2010
12 . Chile 27 May 1960
13 . Reggio 29-12-1908
14 . Sumatra 25-12-2004
15 . Concepcion Chile 27-02-2010

More will be added later, as well as a check on dates (so far these are just from what I recall, some may be off by a few days). A second finished version of this chart in progress will certainly be added in a few days once I get a look at the data, thanks to those who suggested links.

The three volcanic events indicated are Krakatoa (1883), Tamboro (1815) and Mt St Helens (1980).

This is the frequency count of earthquakes against the 20 year (19.85 yr) cycle of Jupiter-Saturn alignments. Year 1 in this cycle corresponds to years like 1752, 1772 ... 1851, 1871 ... 2010 with the two major planets on opposite sides of the Sun. Year 11 in this cycle would be the set of years where Jupiter passes Saturn (mutual oppositions). To keep the cycle on course, 1831 and 1990 which would be year "20" cases are shifted forward to become a new year 1. This results in the frequency of year 20 at random being lower. For all intents and purposes, the random frequency otherwise should be about equal as we have just completed 13 cycles. Although I didn't list earthquakes from 1752 to 1754, the linked table does not provide any that could have been included. Each x here represents one earthquake in the chart (this was my easy way of counting them) ...

YR 1 .xxxxx xxxxx xxx

---

J opposite S

---

YR 2 .xxxxx xx
YR 3 .xxxxx xxxx -- 2012 --
YR 4 .xxxxx x
YR 5 .xxxxx xxxxx
YR 6 .xxxxx xxxxx x
YR 7 .xxxxx xxxxx x
YR 8 .xxxxx xxxxx xxx

---

solar max (when reg)

---

YR 9 .xxxxx xxxx
YR10.xxxxx x
YR11.xxxxx xxx

---

J passes S

---

YR12.xxxxx xxx
YR13.xxxxx xxxxx xxxx
YR14.xxxxx
YR15.xxxxx xxxxx
YR16.xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx x
YR17.xxxxx
YR18.xxxxx xxxx

---

solar max (when reg)

---

YR19.xxxxx xxxxx x
YR20.xxxxx xxxx

You can see a vague resemblance in this to the regular solar cycle with the main anomaly being year 13 (which corresponds to later secondary peaks of the 20yr series 1764 .. 1863 .. 1943 .. 2002.

The notations for solar max, alignment and current year are placed for context and have no particular relevance to the data set as compared to other years without notations. The solar cycle is placed at its mean 10-yr periodicity during regular cycle activity. As noted earlier, we are now running late on that paradigm.

Subjectively, I noticed a trend for frequent clusters of earthquakes near or just after solar max, whether solar cycle was weak or strong. This would be more evident in the above if I adjusted the data in the past 20 years to fit the lagging solar cycles and also adjusted 1883-1917.

I was looking at some of these concepts a year ago and have had an interest in earthquake prediction for all the years I've done my weather research, although t.b.h. I have never felt that specific earthquake prediction would necessarily be possible, just the sort of slight changes in background probability that my data may suggest. I don't really know how useful that could be to anyone, to hear that the next six weeks have a somewhat enhanced risk of a major earthquake.

I've been sketching out diagrams of this mass equator concept but not really finding anything very organized to encourage further study.

The relationship with solar activity is something that I did post about before, if not on boards then definitely on Net-weather. The basic idea is sketched out above, that regular solar activity tends to keep pace with the nearly 10 year cycle of Jupiter-Saturn alignments, then drifts off this pace when it weakens. The period then lengthens from 10 to more like 12 years, suggesting that the J-S interaction ceases but Jupiter still modulates what is left of the activity. The alternating nature of oppositions same and alternate sides of the Sun corresponds to the Hale cycle of alternating polarity, although not in any obvious physical cause and effect. When you sketch the mass equator and allow it to follow the two major planets but curved in towards the Sun, you realize that it has to perform some kind of re-set between alignments. This seems similar to what happens to sunspot groups over the cycles. I have always reached a dead end with the geometry aspects of all this, but it seems unlikely (to me) that the correlation is random especially when it apparently extends well back before the Maunder.

Meanwhile the earthquake frequency apparently follows a vaguely similar modulation but while the solar cycle during active decades fits the paradigm with an amplitude of about 4:1 the earthquake frequency only shifts by about 1.5 to 1.

There was a 7.1 on Sunday in Chile
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-03-25/Chile-earthquake/53777578/1

Does that count and can we set the 188 day clock again ?

dsmythy wrote: »

8.6 quake fairly significant!

but completely too far out of the time frame to be relevant..

This re-ordered time chart places each entry in the 20-year cycle of Jupiter-Saturn relative orientation. The first set of entries include all years where Jupiter is opposite Saturn in the solar system ... see earlier entries for the time series explanation (1752, 72, 92, 1802, 22, 41, 61 ... 1981, 2000) and from that point on, the chart then includes all other data in the appropriate year of the 20-year cycle. Year 11 of the cycle is the timing for Jupiter passing Saturn. The point is to analyze whether or not this displacement adds any further organization to what was already observed about the earthquakes clustering near alignments of Jupiter-earth-Sun.

Instead of year numbers I have just placed an X for each case.

YEARS ...........JOS.............................JCS...............................JOS

YEAR 01 eg2010 .......xxxx.x......xx.....xx...xxx.......x.........x....
YEAR 02 eg2011 ............xx.....x......x.|...................x...........x.
YEAR 03 eg2012 x..x...............x.....xxx|........x...x.........x...xx.
YEAR 04 eg1993 ...............x.x........xx.|................x................
YEAR 05 eg1994 .....x...........x....xx....x..xx..x..x....................
YEAR 06 eg1995 .x.....x........x.x..x....xx............x.x....x...........
YEAR 07 eg1996 ..........x...x....xxx.x...|........xx...............xx...x
YEAR 08 eg1997 ..............xxx...x...x..|.........x......x.........x....
YEAR 09 eg1998 ...........xxx..xxx.......|................................x
YEAR 10 eg1999 ..................x.........|.....x....xx...xxx......x...
YEAR 11 eg2000 x...x...........x........xx|.x.........x.................xx
YEAR 12 eg2001 .........x.....................x.....xx.........x......x......
YEAR 13 eg2002 .x..............xx........x.x.x..x.....xxxx..x...........
YEAR 14 eg2003 ..................x....x.....|..x............xx.........xxx
YEAR 15 eg2004 ........x...xx........x.....|.........xxxxxx......x..x.
YEAR 16 eg2005 .x....x.....x.....x.x......|........x.x......x..x..x.x.
YEAR 17 eg2006 ......x...x........xx.....x|......xx.......x..........x...
YEAR 18 eg2007 ..xx.x...x.x.........xxxx|.....xxx...........x...xx..
YEAR 19 eg2008 .x....x...xx...x...x......|.....x...................xxx.x.
YEAR 20 eg2009 .xx.x.........x............|.x..........................x.x

The above chart reveals a clustering effect within the J-year time frame which averages 399 days. This can be observed by locating a cluster to the right of the JCS vertical (about 2-3 months after it) in years 13 to 15 then heading down the chart this diagonal moves closer to the JCS vertical, reappears near it in year 1 (top of chart) and continues to move off to the left (moving further ahead of JCS time) ... just a reminder that JCS means Jupiter in conjunction with (or behind) the Sun. This diagonal fades out towards years 7-9 as Jupiter approaches alignment with Saturn. The diagonal could represent a clustering near a shifting mass equator that the earth would encounter a bit earlier each year relative to the J-year (but later in earth time). This may be close to the originally posted 188 day period at least for the part of the 20-year cycle where it is significant (note the diagonal represents two of these intervals or a 376-day cycle although on the chart it comes closer to being 380 days). It could also be postulated that the diagonal is a separate or independent earth-Saturn gravitational resonance which would show up as a diagonal of slightly greater slope (the difference would suggest to me that it's a combined or solar-system mass equator resonance). Why does it appear to fade out towards years when Jupiter and Saturn are aligned? Perhaps because the weight components for the outer planets are high enough that the centre of mass shifts beyond earth orbit and a more stable situation develops.

This diagonal in the chart is far from dominant as there tends to be a rich scattering of earthquakes about a half-J-year removed from the diagonal between years 14 and 20 and extending into year 1. This scattering has less of an obvious alignment to the chart. Given the number of cycles of 20 years represented, it seems anomalous how few earthquakes occur from JCS of year 9 through most of year 10 until near its fourth quarter, which represents the time where Jupiter is approaching Saturn (in terms of sectors in space).