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February 2020 Boards weather forecast contest
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So rather late getting to this, after four weeks
IMT 5.8 after fourth week 5.7 (0.3 below normal).
MAX 14
MIN -2.5
PRC has increased again to 260% (fourth week 292%).
SUN has edged back up to 107% with the fourth week at 113% (676/600).
Some preliminary end of month numbers later, will probably hold to these values generally speaking.0 -
Final values or estimates ...
IMT 5.8 C
MAX 14.0
MIN -2.5 (to be checked, this value would set up minimum progression scoring with reduced boost as two forecasts have raw scores of 19/20) -- looks like it would work out to be normal scoring plus one basically. But not entirely sure we didn't miss a lower value than -2.5, may check a few stations and see if I can find a lower value before 3rd.
PRC 268% (minimum progression and maximum group shaming)
SUN 105-110 (to be nailed down from MS)
The bonus was already discussed and scored back in the thread.
I may post some provisional scoring as I expect the MS will be out on the third of March.0 -
Confirmed scoring for February 2020
Checked the MS and aside from a slight change to sunshine, everything else checked out.
FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ______ TOTAL
Confirmed values ____5.8_ 14.0_ -2.5_ 268_ 108__2.3
dasa29 ______ (-4) _ 22 _ 17*_ 17*_ 06*_ 09 __ 03 _ 74-4= 70
Joe Public __________22 _ 19*_ 00 _ 04*_ 10 __ 10 ______ 65
Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 13*_ 08*_ 11*_ 06 __ 04 ______ 64
Artane2002 ________ 24 _ 01*_ 15*_ 08*_ 06 __ 09 ______ 63
Kindred Spirit _ (-4) _ 23 _ 08*_ 13*_ 05*_ 08 __ 10 _ 67-4=63
mickger844posts (-4)_ 25 _ 12*_ 10*_ 08*_ 06 __ 06 _ 67-4=63
___ Con Sensus _____24 _ 08*_ 06*_ 07*_ 07 __ 10 ______ 62
DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 10*_ 05*_ 10*_ 07 __ 05 ______ 61
Sunflower3 ________ 25 _ 02*_ 20*_ 03*_ 06 __ 04 ______ 60
M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 08*_ 02*_ 10*_ 06 __ 10 ______ 59
sryanbruen ________ 21 _ 04*_ 20*_ 07*_ 02 __ 04 ______ 58
waterways ________ 21 _ 00 __ 06*_ 13*_ 07 __ 07 ______ 54
Bsal ______________17 _ 20*_ 01*_ 04*_ 07 __ 05 ______ 54
MrSkinner _________20 _ 08*_ 01*_ 09*_ 07 __ 09 ______ 54
Jpmarn ___ (-2) ____19 _ 12*_ 01*_ 09*_ 06 __ 06 _ 53-2=51
___ NormaL _______ 20 _ 06*_ 00 __06*_ 08 __ 10 ______ 50
Tae laidir __________ 17 _ 00 _ 14*_ 02*_ 08 __ 08 ______ 49
john mac __________ 22 _ 01*_ 02*_ 07*_ 08 __ 06 ______ 46
Adam240610__ (-2) _ 19 _ 02*_ 01*_ 03*_ 08 __ 07 _ 40-2=38
Rikand ___ (-2) _____18 _ 02*_ 07*_ 03*_ 08 __ 02 _ 40-2=38
Pauldry ___________ 13 _ 05*_ 01*_ 05*_ 09 __ 03 ______ 36
BLIZZARD7 __ (-10) _25 _ 02*_ 00 _ 11*_ 06 __ 02 _46-10=36
_____________________________________________
* minimum progression applied to MAX was a "reduced boost" (half the increase in points available) as top raw score was 18/20.
-- the net effect was to raise most scores by 2-3 points and eliminate a lot of zero scores that became 1,2.
For MIN the same general outcome applies. Most people gained 2-3 points from the procedure.
For PRC the raw scores were all zero, so I decided that the minimum progression would run from 13 down to zero (out of 15) since nobody ventured that close to the reality. Then as one forecast was a little closer than the pack, the sequence went 13, 11, 11, 10, 10, 9, 9, 8, 8 etc. This worked its way down to a low score of 2 which I thought was fair since the group effort was so wide of the mark.
At least for IMT and SUN we were all in scoring territory anyway.
Congrats to Dasa29 who has emerged a little ahead of a big clump of others in the low 60s.
Will get to the annual totals and four seasons later today.
=================================================
(actual forecasts)
FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ hrs sun Cork 14th
Pauldry ____________7.0 _ 15.8 _ -5.0 _ 098 _ 104 __ 5.5
Tae laidir __________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 088 _ 100 __ 2.8
Rikand ___ (-2) _____6.5 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 9.0
Adam240610__ (-2) _ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 3.0
MrSkinner __________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.9 _ 111 _ 095 __ 1.9
sryanbruen _________6.2 _ 15.9 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 070 __ 0.6
Dacogawa _________ 6.1 _ 15.1 _ -3.9 _ 134 _ 086 __ 0.5
M.T. Cranium _______6.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 090 __ 2.4
Artane2002 ________ 5.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.2 _ 107 _ 088 __ 2.7
DOCARCH __________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -4.3 _ 126 _ 092 __ 3.8
___ Con Sensus _____5.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 095 __ 2.6
Sunflower3 _________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -2.4 _ 090 _ 090 __ 0.5
BLIZZARD7 __ (-10) _ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -8.0 _ 134 _ 090 __ 7.4
mickger844posts (-4)_5.8 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 086 __ 3.4
Kindred Spirit _ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.0
john mac __________ 5.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.7 _ 101 _ 096 __ 1.5
dasa29 ______ (-4) _ 5.5 _ 14.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 105 __ 6.0
Joe Public __________5.5 _ 13.7 _ -6.7 _ 096 _ 110 __ 2.0
waterways _________ 5.4 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 095 __ 1.7
___ NormaL ________5.3 _ 15.7 _ -6.6 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.5
Jpmarn ___ (-2) ____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 090 __ 1.5
Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 13.8 _ -5.2 _ 095 _ 095 __ 3.50 -
Updated annual scoring for Jan-Feb 2020
FORECASTER ________ Jan _ Feb ___ TOTAL
Mrskinner ___________ 86 _ 54 _____ 140
Jpmarn _____________ 86 _ 51 _____ 137
Dacogawa ___________73 _ 64 _____ 137
Joe Public ___________ 70 _ 65 _____ 135
___ Con Sensus ______ 70 _ 62 _____ 132
M.T. Cranium ________ 69 _ 59 _____ 128
Sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 60 _____ 128
Kindred Spirit ________ 61 _ 63 _____ 124
___ NormaL _________ 70 _ 50 _____ 120
DOCARCH ___________58 _ 61 _____ 119
Artane2002 __________56 _ 63 _____ 119
Dasa29 _____________ 48 _ 70 _____ 118
mickger844posts ______55 _ 63 _____ 118
Tae laidir ____________67 _ 49 _____ 116
Bsal ________________62 _ 54 _____ 116
john mac ____________64 _ 46 _____ 110
Rikand ______________68 _ 38 _____ 106
sryanbruen __________ 47 _ 58 _____ 105
BLIZZARD7 __________66 _ 36 _____ 102
Adam240610 ________ 62 _ 38 _____ 100
Pauldry _____________63 _ 36 ______ 99
JCXBXC ____________ 58 _ --- ______ 58
WesternStorm _______ 54 _ --- ______ 54
waterways __________ --- _ 54 ______ 54
esposito ____________ 49 _ --- ______ 54
200motels __________ 47 _ --- ______ 54
==============================================
note _ this table contains only scoring for those who entered all three months
Four Seasons contest winter 2019-20 scoring
FORECASTER ____________ Total score ____ points
MrSkinner __________________230 ________ 10
JPmarn ____________________215 __________7
____ Con Sensus ____________ 213 _________ 6
mickger844posts ____________ 206 __________6
Artane2002 _________________202 _________ 5
sunflower3 _________________ 199 _________ 4
Joe Public __________________ 197 _________ 3
dacogawa __________________ 190 _________ 2
Bsal _______________________189 _________ 1
___ NormaL ________________ 188 __________1
Tae laidir ___________________186 __________1
John mac __________________ 180 __________ 1
Kindred Spirit _______________ 179
M. T. Cranium _______________179
DOCARCH __________________ 178
dasa29 ____________________ 175
pauldry ____________________ 174
sryanbruen _________________ 172
Adam240610 _______________ 170
Rikand _____________________166
BLIZZARD7 _________________ 133
Well done MrSkinner for leading both contests at this early stage.0
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