Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

Larbre34 · 15-01-2020 2:21pm

Theres a seat in it for either Joan or Coppinger or Donnelly, will be a helluva bun fight.

I would expect Leo, Chambers, and O'Gorman, but cannot call it between Coppinger and Donnelly. I think Joan will be an also-ran this time

ArmaniJeanss · 15-01-2020 2:39pm

Spoke to Jack Chambers on my doorstep about 6 months ago, first time I've had a FF or FG at my house in Mulhuddart.
Wanted to hate the guy but he came across very well, and it was all cordial.

He acknowledged that he'd make serious mistakes on some of his early statements on the abortion issue, but he now considered it closed - Democracy had spoken, he'd support the legislation and didn't want the issue revisited.

I still won't be voting for him with any preference, but I think he'll retain his seat easily enough. Probably his for life now, when you've held once you basically become a fixture.

Roderic O' G will have my effective #1 as always, but not sure he'll do as well as people think. I suspect the Greens will have other target seats that are more easy to win and with higher profile candidates - they'll aim their resources at these constituencies instead of DW.

Leo keeps his seat obv and think Ruth's vote will hold up more than people here think. Paul Donnelly couldn't get in even when SF were riding high, so his time is gone imo. Joan may hold on again.

Boring Prediction : No change.

Caranica · 15-01-2020 2:49pm

padd b1975 wrote: »

Three different party names?

Stickers with the new party name on the old ones

victor8600 · 15-01-2020 3:14pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Spoke to Jack Chambers on my doorstep about 6 months ago, first time I've had a FF or FG at my house in Mulhuddart.
Wanted to hate the guy but he came across very well, and it was all cordial.
...
I still won't be voting for him with any preference....

Boring Prediction : No change.

Agreed 100%. I have talked to Jack Chambers twice and frankly found him eager but a bit dim. But at least he made it to my door! I would support socialists, and had good chats with Ruth C., but I am now too middle class and don't relate to their peddling of the "homelessness" issue and I don't see how they would help actual working people to get a house (as opposed to "working class" people -- whoever they are now).

Gaspode · 15-01-2020 3:14pm

Hi all, see note inserted in the first post - please declare any vested interest (as LorelaiG has done in post #6 ) before posting any further in this thread

OovyGroovyMan · 15-01-2020 4:27pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

He acknowledged that he'd make serious mistakes on some of his early statements on the abortion issue, but he now considered it closed - Democracy had spoken, he'd support the legislation and didn't want the issue revisited.

He has stated that publicly or officially anywhere, just out of interest?

ArmaniJeanss · 15-01-2020 4:42pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

He acknowledged that he'd make serious mistakes on some of his early statements on the abortion issue, but he now considered it closed - Democracy had spoken, he'd support the legislation and didn't want the issue revisited.

OovyGroovyMan wrote: »

He has stated that publicly or officially anywhere, just out of interest?

Not that I'm aware of, no.
He did vote for the legislation though whilst other FFers abstained, so it's somewhat reasonable to infer that that is his position. He is probably more a follower than a leader though, and knows which way the wind blows.

Will be interesting to see his trajectory though in future FF governments - it struck me whilst speaking to him that he is likely to be a Cabinet Minister over the next 20 years, maybe even the top job some day if the chips fall his way. :eek:

Past30Now · 15-01-2020 5:30pm

Traditionally FF & FG Taoisigh (sp?) were able to bring in a running mate at a general election. The best example being Bertie bringing in Royston or Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central a number of years ago, despite them getting c940 first preference votes. This is Leo's first election as Taoiseach. Any chance he could hoover up enough votes to get Emer Currie across the line?

A Knight of Ireland · 15-01-2020 5:43pm

Personally, I think it will be

1. Leo
2.Roderic
3 Chambers
4. Donnelly/Coppinger

I hope that Donnelly gets the nod before Coppinger. As said in a previous post, I think and hope that people have coped on to the fact that shouting abuse from the sidelines is not productive.

Anyone, think that Edward McManus has an outside chance? This new Aontu Party have definitely grown legs in the last year and their grassroots support in Dublin 15 is also growing based on the public meetings he has held.

I think Joan can throw her hat at it. It would be much more dignified if she called a halt to her political career now rather than facing a humiliating defeat at the polls

Past30Now · 15-01-2020 6:02pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

I think Joan can throw her hat at it. It would be much more dignified if she called a halt to her political career now rather than facing a humiliating defeat at the polls

I have a feeling that you are right with regards to her retaining her seat, but would have admiration for her for going for it. If she was going to step back, she should have done so at least a year ago, to give her party the opportunity to build up an alternative. It would possibly be John Walsh, and he's had a bit of profile around the area in the last couple of years, but it would be a tough gig for him in this election.

Zaph · 15-01-2020 6:05pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Anyone, think that Edward McManus has an outside chance? This new Aontu Party have definitely grown legs in the last year and their grassroots support in Dublin 15 is also growing based on the public meetings he has held.

As much as I hate her, if it meant the difference between Coppinger or McManus getting in I'd definitely give her a vote. If Aontu were the only party on the ballot paper I'd spoil my vote.

A Knight of Ireland · 15-01-2020 6:21pm

Because of their Pro-life stance?

Zaph · 15-01-2020 6:44pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Because of their Pro-life stance?

That would be a big part of it, but not the only factor.

antimatterx · 15-01-2020 6:52pm

Past30Now wrote: »

Traditionally FF & FG Taoisigh (sp?) were able to bring in a running mate at a general election. The best example being Bertie bringing in Royston or Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central a number of years ago, despite them getting c940 first preference votes. This is Leo's first election as Taoiseach. Any chance he could hoover up enough votes to get Emer Currie across the line?

Hopefully, she would make a Fine additional to the Dail

quickbeam · 15-01-2020 8:08pm

I have made my decision. Mostly based on who I hate least.

Up to when can candidates add themselves to the ballot? Or do we already have the final list of runners?

Why isn't there an official list of candidates running per constituency. The link in the OP is good. But there really should be somewhere official so all of the candidates can be seen otherwise the first time is in the ballot booth.

Nijmegen · 15-01-2020 8:43pm

Candidates can get added for a little while yet and then fingal will publish the list.

I suspect the play for Currie is to stay in politics long enough till Leo heads off to some European job and then take up her old mans seat in Dublin West. Another good dynasty job.

Bringing in a running mate even for a sitting Taoiseach in Dublin West the party would need to be polling in the high 30’s / low 40’s nationally.

Remind me · 15-01-2020 8:48pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Personally, I think it will be

1. Leo
2.Roderic
3 Chambers
4. Donnelly/Coppinger

I hope that Donnelly gets the nod before Coppinger. As said in a previous post, I think and hope that people have coped on to the fact that shouting abuse from the sidelines is not productive.

Anyone, think that Edward McManus has an outside chance? This new Aontu Party have definitely grown legs in the last year and their grassroots support in Dublin 15 is also growing based on the public meetings he has held.

I think Joan can throw her hat at it. It would be much more dignified if she called a halt to her political career now rather than facing a humiliating defeat at the polls

No chance for McManus. Didnt do well in the locals and he’s onto his 3rd political party.

Chambers won’t be behind Roderic.

I think first could be closer than people think between Taoiseach and Chambers followed but Roderic. I hope Burton retains over Coppinger or Donnelly but I think it’ll be Donnelly. SF won’t make the same mistake with him again this time around.

quickbeam · 15-01-2020 8:52pm

Remind me wrote: »

No chance for McManus. Didnt do well in the locals and he’s onto his 3rd political party.

Chambers won’t be behind Roderic.

I think first could be closer than people think between Taoiseach and Chambers followed but Roderic. I hope Burton retains over Coppinger or Donnelly but I think it’ll be Donnelly. SF won’t make the same mistake with him again this time around.

What other parties did McManus have?
What was the mistake SF made previously?

Murt10 · 15-01-2020 9:52pm

AlanG wrote: »

Navan Road moving into Dublin West basically saved her last time - Labour is strong in that area. She also spends a lot of time around Roselawn/Delwood in Blanch.

There are a lot of disgruntled civil and public servants living in that very area. Joan stood by, when the present leader of the party, that horrible little man from Wexford, while he was the Minister for the Public Service, decided to make them all work an extra day a month. Still rankles with them. They're still stuck with it.

That very same little man, again while he was Minister for the Public Service, decided single handedly that all civil and public servants were a bunch of malingerers, abusing the sick leave scheme.

He brought in absolutely draconian changes. Nobody I know of, would have minded in the least if he had decided to tackle any perceived malingerers head on, but no he decided that he had to cut everyone's sick leave in 1/2.

Heretofore, for as long as I can remember, I always gave my No 1 to Roderick and my No 2 to Joan. Not this time. My No 2 will be going elsewhere. Labour took a hammering in the last election and I wouldn't be surprised to see them totally wiped out this time.

rockatansky · 15-01-2020 9:57pm

Surprised to see some saying Coppinger will be in for a fight for her seat. Whenever there's a piece on the news relating to housing or social issues she seems to be the go to choice for a far left comment/interview by the media. She seems to have a lot of exposure.

Hurrache · 15-01-2020 10:39pm

Zaph wrote: »

The Greens got two seats from areas covered by Dublin West in the local elections (Castleknock and Ongar). I wonder could this be the year that Roderic O'Gorman finally wins a Dáil seat? Roderic himself topped the poll by a huge margin in the Castleknock LEA. The only thing that might cause him an issue is that there was no Green candidate in the Blanchardstown–Mulhuddart LEA, I'm guessing because the party believed they would have little or no support there.

It'll be great to see him get a seat, he's incredibly hard working as a councillor beyond his lea.

The problem I see is that other parties are muddying the waters against the greens saying they want to carbon tax you to the hilt and take away your 'freedom' to drive and all that nonsense.

Caranica · 15-01-2020 10:49pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Not that I'm aware of, no.
He did vote for the legislation though whilst other FFers abstained, so it's somewhat reasonable to infer that that is his position. He is probably more a follower than a leader though, and knows which way the wind blows.

Will be interesting to see his trajectory though in future FF governments - it struck me whilst speaking to him that he is likely to be a Cabinet Minister over the next 20 years, maybe even the top job some day if the chips fall his way. :eek:

Whether he voted for the legislation or not does not in any way excuse the fact that he voted against having the referendum in the first place!

Nijmegen · 15-01-2020 11:03pm

rockatansky wrote: »

Surprised to see some saying Coppinger will be in for a fight for her seat. Whenever there's a piece on the news relating to housing or social issues she seems to be the go to choice for a far left comment/interview by the media. She seems to have a lot of exposure.

Not actually sure that helps her given that she has not one positive thing to say about anything. The LE results for her party tell their own story. Her baseline to work from is ridiculously small.

Remind me · 15-01-2020 11:13pm

quickbeam wrote: »

What other parties did McManus have?
What was the mistake SF made previously?

He was previously FF and apologies if I am wrong but I thought he was elsewhere before. Possibly independent.

SF did not go near Coolmine, Delwood, Glenville down towards Castleknock from what I could see. He was 1/100 to get a seat and they completely F’d up. Should not have let Coppinger get the seat.

Remind me · 16-01-2020 12:21am

Any word if Ciaran Cuffe is going to contest or is he staying in Europe?

Roderic is the Green alternate for Europe

Murt10 · 16-01-2020 1:53am

Remind me wrote: »

Any word if Ciaran Cuffe is going to contest or is he staying in Europe?

Roderic is the Green alternate for Europe

What on earth would we want that prat Cuffe back from Europe for. After all he single handedly brought in the new changes to the speed limit, which will criminalize most of us, at the same time as enriching the insurance companies. Soon we'll be imited to 18mph all over Dublin.
The only regret I have about him being there is that he's being extremely well paid for it.

Remind me · 16-01-2020 9:25am

Murt10 wrote: »

What on earth would we want that prat Cuffe back from Europe for. After all he single handedly brought in the new changes to the speed limit, which will criminalize most of us, at the same time as enriching the insurance companies. Soon we'll be imited to 18mph all over Dublin.
The only regret I have about him being there is that he's being extremely well paid for it.

So you don’t know?

On a side note as someone who lives in a residential area and has young kids I wish the speed limit was 30KPH and not the 50 it still is.

LoonyLovegood · 16-01-2020 11:18am

Putting it out there I'm a member of the Social Democrats and campaigning for Aengus O Maolain, before I post anything!

But I can't see SF getting a seat, rumours of the amount of money HQ spent here last time and they still didn't get one when they were getting huge amounts elsewhere, I can't see it happen. The Greens will push Roderic forward big time, and I'd love to see him as a TD, I just hope he doesn't do what Leo did and go from being a fantastic councillor to awful TD for the area.

Nijmegen · 16-01-2020 12:40pm

LoonyLovegood wrote: »

Putting it out there I'm a member of the Social Democrats and campaigning for Aengus O Maolain, before I post anything!

But I can't see SF getting a seat, rumours of the amount of money HQ spent here last time and they still didn't get one when they were getting huge amounts elsewhere, I can't see it happen. The Greens will push Roderic forward big time, and I'd love to see him as a TD, I just hope he doesn't do what Leo did and go from being a fantastic councillor to awful TD for the area.

The sense with Leo was always that he wanted to be a TD and reclaim a FG seat in DW, and as a Councillor would attend the opening of a packet of crisps to raise his profile.

With Roderic he has been fighting the good fight for a long time on the council, I wouldn't personally see him going native the minute he got to the Dail.

The Sinn Fein / Dublin West story has long been that the socialists hoover up enough of their vote to keep them out on the basis that they're just not transfer friendly from the other parties. If the eliminations went right and Ruth C was to fire 3-5,000 votes into the ether for transfers below Donnelly, he could take the seat.

AlanG · 16-01-2020 4:36pm

Past30Now wrote: »

Traditionally FF & FG Taoisigh (sp?) were able to bring in a running mate at a general election. The best example being Bertie bringing in Royston or Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central a number of years ago, despite them getting c940 first preference votes. This is Leo's first election as Taoiseach. Any chance he could hoover up enough votes to get Emer Currie across the line?

I don't think Leo has anything near the puling power of Berite. Bertie was on a completely different level in how he worked the constituency. When he was taoiseach he would still call to the door two or tree times a year and he muist have got mass four or five times every Sunday.

I think a huge amount of natural FG supporters are turned off by Leo and his focus on social media above social interaction. He doesn't seem to have empathy with or an understanding of working families. Personally I think the FG TD's made a big mistake by ignoring their membership and going for Leo above Coveney as leader.

Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

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