Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

I'll vote for all of them, as I usually do.

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/


According to Adrian Kavanagh, the candidates are:

Dublin West (4 seats):
Deputy Leo Varadkar (Fine Gael),
Cllr. Emer Currie (Fine Gael),
Deputy Jack Chambers (Fianna Fáil),
Cllr. Paul Donnelly (Sinn Féin),
Deputy Joan Burton (Labour Party),
Deputy Ruth Coppinger (Solidarity),
Cllr. Roderic O’Gorman (Green Party),
Aengus Ó Maoláin (Social Democrats),
Edward Mac Manus (Aontú).

The results from the last election were:


Party|Candidate|FPv%|Count 1|Count 2|Count 3|Count 4|Count 5|
Fine Gael|Leo Varadkar|19.7|8,247|8,328|9,021
AAA–PBP|Ruth Coppinger|15.5|6,520|6,626|6,690|7,011|8,548
Fianna Fáil|Jack Chambers|16.5|6,917|7,148|7,236|7,330|8,315
Labour Party|Joan Burton|15.4|6,445|6,508|6,668|6,769|8,009
Sinn Féin|Paul Donnelly|14.4|6,034|6,073|6,093|6,188|7,091
Independent|David McGuinness|7.1|2,991|3,081|3,112|3,405
Green Party|Roderic O'Gorman|4.1|1,730|1,839|1,864|2,098
Independent|T J Clare|2.6|1,092|1,191|1,214
Fine Gael|Catherine Noone|2.6|1,074|1,125
Renua|Jo O'Brien|1.6|677
Independent|Dermot Casey|0.5|225

BTW declaring early on that I'll be canvassing for Ruth Coppinger in Solidarity. That's my only connection.

L1011 wrote: »

Chambers rather conservative views could lose him enough votes to be in trouble

That would be amazing. He lives in the dark ages and is one of the most ignorant people I've ever crossed paths with.

I hope Roderic makes it this time. He is genuinely one of the most hard working people I've ever encountered. I'm not a green voter but I'll certainly be giving him a high preference. I live in that new LEA, have done for 15 years so was Castleknock LEA for most of that and Roderic was one of our councillors. I don't think not having a current Green councillor for the LEA will be a significant issue for him.

Quick question. Would you not have expected catherine noone to do much better last time out getting Leo's transfers

Zaph wrote: »

Iirc, Catherine Noone campaigned almost exclusively in the Navan Road/Cabra end of the constituency last time out. She was pretty much anonymous elsewhere and suffered from lack of visibility as a result. People clearly didn't want to give their second preferences to a candidate who was pretty much invisible to them. Whether it was simply bad vote management on FG's part or a deliberate act to ensure that Leo didn't lose votes to a running mate is anyone's guess, but I'd suspect the latter myself.

That makes perfect sense tbh. She's running in my constituency of Dublin Bay North and she's everywhere by the looks of it. I'm voting for her, and hoping FG secure 2 seats here.

I would be shocked if Chambers lost his seat, maybe McManus might steal a couple hundred of his voters in Castleknock but not enough to trouble him. It will be competition for two seats between Burton, Coppinger, Donnelly, and O'Gorman. Depending on turnout you imagine their should be a seat for either Coppinger or Donnelly. That leaves Burton and O'Gorman battling for the other with maybe Currie having an outside chance depending on how willing Leo is to lend her some votes. I think Currie's name value and living in the constituency, gives her a greater chance for a seat this time than Noone who was being shoehorned into this constituency.

Dublin West has always been 1 FF, 1 FG, 1-2 (when it was varied between 3-4 seats) lefties to fight over the rest. I’d include Greens in that leftie second category.

This means that the also-rans of FF/FG never make proper headway. Same story every election, they’re sweepers and that’s it. There’s a long and sorry line of discarded running mates who were sold a dream for both parties. There just isn’t 2 seats for 1 party anymore. I remember seeing Gerry Lynam, god rest him, who had come in from independent to FF in 2007 fuming the day of the count. Brian Lenihan had taken 1.3 quotas and Gerry 0.2 and the final seat went to Joan B, who had won 0.68. His contention was that he might have finished elsewhere in the eliminations and got a boost. It seemed like an outside story, but mega pissed that the vote wasn’t shared. FG is pretty consistent at winning just under 1 quota for Varadkar, which is efficient, but the running mates just can’t get enough of a FG vote elsewhere for it to matter.

I’d say Joan B will scrape it. There’s always that fear as she’s lost before, but she earns enough first preference on history to keep her above the fray. Her biggest problem is always getting nobbled by the hard left. If the Shinners mount a serious run (another dawn that has failed to materialise across a rake of GEs and bye-elections) and the Green Wave continues she could be screwed. But the Shinners don’t get transfers the way other parties do, same old story.

I don't think there's any doubt that Jack Chambers will get in, although I would never vote for him. In fairness to him, he's the only one from the list of candidates who has ever bothered to knock on our door. It was a few months ago and it was definitely with the election in mind, but at least he made a bit of an effort.

And in fairness to Ruth Coppinger, she's been right at the forefront of important social issues over the last few years and has always been quick to respond to emails about those issues.

Hoping that Roderic gets in this time around. Don't think anyone deserves it more.

Think the seats will go to:

Leo
Chambers
Coppinger
O'Gorman.

Overall I think the story of the election will be the come back of the Greens and Fianna Fail gaining control.

The analyst on Newstalk is giving it Green, FG, FF and one battle seat. Green first or second.

Emer Currie is a good person for FG but she has no chance and is only on the ticket either to ensure FG make their gender balance or to build up for a by-election when Leo heads off to Europe as he seems to have no interest in the constituency.

Personally I think Joan is done for although, contrary to an earlier poster here, I think she does a lot around the area and I have seen more of her than anyone except Roderick.
Last seat is likely to come down to when and if the Sinn Fein transfers are distributed. More of these are likely to go to Ruth than Joan.

It is hard to see Chambers losing a seat, and it is hard to see there being more than two seats for FF/FG, which means Currie will find it very difficult to take the last seat. However, she performed really well in the locals as a first-time candidate, albeit hoovering up Leo's vote.

SF did really badly in the locals, with the vote down on the last general election. Solidarity were well down as well. The Greens did really well taking a council seat in the two wards they contested.

I would see Varadkar and O'Gorman taking the first two seats. I think Donnelly's transfers will put Coppinger ahead of Burton with Chambers sitting on 80% of a quota after the first count and those two picking up the last two seats despite Chambers not attracting many transfers. Currie to finish fifth and miss a seat.

The socialists would need a miracle to win. They won 536 votes in Mulhuddart in the last locals; down from 3,270 the prior time (-2,734) and 719 in Castleknock; down from 1,332 last time (-613) and 666 in Ongar (which is net new) (source). 1,921 total in the old heart of Dublin West, down from 4,602 last time. 419 in all of Cabra, bearing in mind only part of it is now Dublin West.

So 1,921 is their starting position to win a seat in an area where at the last GE 6,445 was the floor to get a seat and 6,034 missed out. Turnout will be higher in a GE than a LE but that's your base to build from relative to the others. As we'll see below, so long, farewell, and thanks for the memories. People are fed up with their moaning.

Meanwhile the Greens got 4,401 between Mulhuddart and Castleknock and didn't run anyone in Ongar (where an oil executive could have run under their banner and won a seat, if they had registered), but if they had and got 10% as they did in Mulhuddart would have got about 5,000 votes as their starting point for a seat this run out. I'd bet they're uber transfer friendly.

Labour only got 2,471 between the 3 wards, so she really needs that Cabra vote but ultimately I think in a GE her name value will keep her above the Socialists, and it's really the order of elimination then (eg, say Emer Currie picks up a few thousand votes that will transfer a lot better to Labour than the Socialists).

Shinners got 3,946 across the core wards. But as ever their lack of transfer friendliness will be their problem.

Based on that, I'd say FG 1, FF 1, Greens 1 and then the betting man will need to decide between Labour or Shinners based on getting transfers, but shading towards Labour as I'd say Joan Burton will pull a higher vote personally than Donnelly of SF, close the FPV gap and do it on transfers. (But then again, Socialist votes could transfer his way if Coppinger goes out... So I'd say shading but I'd go either way.)