Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

A Knight of Ireland · 14-01-2020 2:18pm #1

So now the election is called for February? Who are the candidates for Dublin West and more importantly, who are you voting for?

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Have fun!

OfflerCrocGod · 14-01-2020 3:16pm

I'll vote for all of them, as I usually do.

LorelaiG · 14-01-2020 5:47pm

Leo obvs. He also has a running mate called Eimear o think. FG

Jack chambers FF

Ruth Coppinger sol

Roderic O'Gorman green

Aengus Ó Maolain (so) Soc Drms

Paul Donnelly SF

Those are the ones confirmed running so far

blanch152 · 14-01-2020 6:00pm

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/

According to Adrian Kavanagh, the candidates are:

Dublin West (4 seats):
Deputy Leo Varadkar (Fine Gael),
Cllr. Emer Currie (Fine Gael),
Deputy Jack Chambers (Fianna Fáil),
Cllr. Paul Donnelly (Sinn Féin),
Deputy Joan Burton (Labour Party),
Deputy Ruth Coppinger (Solidarity),
Cllr. Roderic O’Gorman (Green Party),
Aengus Ó Maoláin (Social Democrats),
Edward Mac Manus (Aontú).

The results from the last election were:

Party|Candidate|FPv%|Count 1|Count 2|Count 3|Count 4|Count 5|
Fine Gael|Leo Varadkar|19.7|8,247|8,328|9,021
AAA–PBP|Ruth Coppinger|15.5|6,520|6,626|6,690|7,011|8,548
Fianna Fáil|Jack Chambers|16.5|6,917|7,148|7,236|7,330|8,315
Labour Party|Joan Burton|15.4|6,445|6,508|6,668|6,769|8,009
Sinn Féin|Paul Donnelly|14.4|6,034|6,073|6,093|6,188|7,091
Independent|David McGuinness|7.1|2,991|3,081|3,112|3,405
Green Party|Roderic O'Gorman|4.1|1,730|1,839|1,864|2,098
Independent|T J Clare|2.6|1,092|1,191|1,214
Fine Gael|Catherine Noone|2.6|1,074|1,125
Renua|Jo O'Brien|1.6|677
Independent|Dermot Casey|0.5|225

Zaph · 14-01-2020 6:21pm

The Greens got two seats from areas covered by Dublin West in the local elections (Castleknock and Ongar). I wonder could this be the year that Roderic O'Gorman finally wins a Dáil seat? Roderic himself topped the poll by a huge margin in the Castleknock LEA. The only thing that might cause him an issue is that there was no Green candidate in the Blanchardstown–Mulhuddart LEA, I'm guessing because the party believed they would have little or no support there.

LorelaiG · 14-01-2020 6:24pm

BTW declaring early on that I'll be canvassing for Ruth Coppinger in Solidarity. That's my only connection.

L1011 · 14-01-2020 7:15pm

Chambers rather conservative views could lose him enough votes to be in trouble, but as S/PBP are expected to lose absolutely all of their seats in the entire country based on polling and local election results it's hard to see it. Expect the Greens to take Coppingers seat and the other three as they were

Caranica · 14-01-2020 7:35pm

L1011 wrote: »

Chambers rather conservative views could lose him enough votes to be in trouble

That would be amazing. He lives in the dark ages and is one of the most ignorant people I've ever crossed paths with.

I hope Roderic makes it this time. He is genuinely one of the most hard working people I've ever encountered. I'm not a green voter but I'll certainly be giving him a high preference. I live in that new LEA, have done for 15 years so was Castleknock LEA for most of that and Roderic was one of our councillors. I don't think not having a current Green councillor for the LEA will be a significant issue for him.

Nijmegen · 14-01-2020 8:33pm

His conservative views appeal to a pretty hardcore element. 25% voted against abortion and 29% against marriage equality in Dublin West. Cross pollenate that with the hardcore FF vote that just never moves and I really can’t see him losing his seat. I think that’s a hopeful online narrative more so than reflective of the electorate.

Not my vote, but would be nice to see ROG finally get a seat after a long, long time of working in the constituency, at the expense of a moan about everything socialist seat. Greens might also make it into government and have an impact for your vote if you go that way.

Zaph · 14-01-2020 9:28pm

It's no coincidence that Chambers is based in Castleknock. The area would have an older, more settled and, relatively speaking, more conservative electorate than most of the constituency. I certainly couldn't see him doing well in the likes of Tyrrellstown or Ongar, for example. Castleknock would be more traditional FF territory, and I'd imagine there'd be enough regular FF voters dotted throughout the rest of the constituency to ensure he retains his seat fairly handily.

LorelaiG · 14-01-2020 9:33pm

I can see leo and Jack retaining their seats with ease. I can see Joan losing her seat but then it's a toss between ROG, RC and PD for the last two seats.

antimatterx · 14-01-2020 9:36pm

Quick question. Would you not have expected catherine noone to do much better last time out getting Leo's transfers

Zaph · 14-01-2020 9:47pm

antimatterx wrote: »

Quick question. Would you not have expected catherine noone to do much better last time out getting Leo's transfers

Iirc, Catherine Noone campaigned almost exclusively in the Navan Road/Cabra end of the constituency last time out. She was pretty much anonymous elsewhere and suffered from lack of visibility as a result. People clearly didn't want to give their second preferences to a candidate who was pretty much invisible to them. Whether it was simply bad vote management on FG's part or a deliberate act to ensure that Leo didn't lose votes to a running mate is anyone's guess, but I'd suspect the latter myself.

antimatterx · 14-01-2020 9:50pm

Zaph wrote: »

Iirc, Catherine Noone campaigned almost exclusively in the Navan Road/Cabra end of the constituency last time out. She was pretty much anonymous elsewhere and suffered from lack of visibility as a result. People clearly didn't want to give their second preferences to a candidate who was pretty much invisible to them. Whether it was simply bad vote management on FG's part or a deliberate act to ensure that Leo didn't lose votes to a running mate is anyone's guess, but I'd suspect the latter myself.

That makes perfect sense tbh. She's running in my constituency of Dublin Bay North and she's everywhere by the looks of it. I'm voting for her, and hoping FG secure 2 seats here.

L1011 · 14-01-2020 10:13pm

LorelaiG wrote: »

I can see leo and Jack retaining their seats with ease. I can see Joan losing her seat but then it's a toss between ROG, RC and PD for the last two seats.

Coppinger will be long gone before the last seats come in to it. Solidarity lost 75% of their seats in Fingal in May with candidates getting low hundreds of votes. Their time is up, basically.

Kiwi_knock · 14-01-2020 10:27pm

I would be shocked if Chambers lost his seat, maybe McManus might steal a couple hundred of his voters in Castleknock but not enough to trouble him. It will be competition for two seats between Burton, Coppinger, Donnelly, and O'Gorman. Depending on turnout you imagine their should be a seat for either Coppinger or Donnelly. That leaves Burton and O'Gorman battling for the other with maybe Currie having an outside chance depending on how willing Leo is to lend her some votes. I think Currie's name value and living in the constituency, gives her a greater chance for a seat this time than Noone who was being shoehorned into this constituency.

Caranica · 14-01-2020 10:39pm

L1011 wrote: »

Coppinger will be long gone before the last seats come in to it. Solidarity lost 75% of their seats in Fingal in May with candidates getting low hundreds of votes. Their time is up, basically.

I noted at least 3 different types of Ruth Coppinger posters on the Navan Road tonight. That's three elections worth of posters, throwing the kitchen sink at it!

Nijmegen · 14-01-2020 11:12pm

Dublin West has always been 1 FF, 1 FG, 1-2 (when it was varied between 3-4 seats) lefties to fight over the rest. I’d include Greens in that leftie second category.

This means that the also-rans of FF/FG never make proper headway. Same story every election, they’re sweepers and that’s it. There’s a long and sorry line of discarded running mates who were sold a dream for both parties. There just isn’t 2 seats for 1 party anymore. I remember seeing Gerry Lynam, god rest him, who had come in from independent to FF in 2007 fuming the day of the count. Brian Lenihan had taken 1.3 quotas and Gerry 0.2 and the final seat went to Joan B, who had won 0.68. His contention was that he might have finished elsewhere in the eliminations and got a boost. It seemed like an outside story, but mega pissed that the vote wasn’t shared. FG is pretty consistent at winning just under 1 quota for Varadkar, which is efficient, but the running mates just can’t get enough of a FG vote elsewhere for it to matter.

I’d say Joan B will scrape it. There’s always that fear as she’s lost before, but she earns enough first preference on history to keep her above the fray. Her biggest problem is always getting nobbled by the hard left. If the Shinners mount a serious run (another dawn that has failed to materialise across a rake of GEs and bye-elections) and the Green Wave continues she could be screwed. But the Shinners don’t get transfers the way other parties do, same old story.

ongarite · 14-01-2020 11:24pm

Think Burton is done for this time.

Greens to get the 3rd seat, behind Leo and Chambers with Donnelly & Coppinger fighting over last seat.

Toto Wolfcastle · 14-01-2020 11:30pm

I don't think there's any doubt that Jack Chambers will get in, although I would never vote for him. In fairness to him, he's the only one from the list of candidates who has ever bothered to knock on our door. It was a few months ago and it was definitely with the election in mind, but at least he made a bit of an effort.

And in fairness to Ruth Coppinger, she's been right at the forefront of important social issues over the last few years and has always been quick to respond to emails about those issues.

Hoping that Roderic gets in this time around. Don't think anyone deserves it more.

Caranica · 14-01-2020 11:31pm

Joan B doesn't live in the constituency. In 15 years out here I've never met her or any canvassers for her. She has been anonymous for the past 4 years, I was always getting stuff in the door from her but next to nothing of late. Think she's gone this time.

beauf · 14-01-2020 11:45pm

I've no time for FF but at least Chambers makes an bit of noise.

Roderic is the only one that I see as being truly active locally. He'll always get my support even if the greens are a disaster.

The rest I never see do anything. I don't think I've ever seen Leo involved in local issues even in the past. Just sound bites. Which is pretty much reflects FG in govt.

I wonder will people finally have had enough of FG this time, or will the dsymal lack of opposition mean people don't see any obvious alternative. The opposition had been very poor quality.

ongarite · 14-01-2020 11:46pm

Caranica wrote: »

Joan B doesn't live in the constituency. In 15 years out here I've never met her or any canvassers for her. She has been anonymous for the past 4 years, I was always getting stuff in the door from her but next to nothing of late. Think she's gone this time.

Same, have hardly seen her since last election.
She is based/living near Cabra which isn't Dublin 15.
Going to be hard to raise her profile.

rockatansky · 15-01-2020 6:24am

Think the seats will go to:

Leo
Chambers
Coppinger
O'Gorman.

Overall I think the story of the election will be the come back of the Greens and Fianna Fail gaining control.

LorelaiG · 15-01-2020 8:40am

L1011 wrote: »

Coppinger will be long gone before the last seats come in to it. Solidarity lost 75% of their seats in Fingal in May with candidates getting low hundreds of votes. Their time is up, basically.

I doubt it. The issue with Solidarity losing their seats in the LEA's (imo anyway) was the split in the area's.

AlanG · 15-01-2020 11:01am

The analyst on Newstalk is giving it Green, FG, FF and one battle seat. Green first or second.

Emer Currie is a good person for FG but she has no chance and is only on the ticket either to ensure FG make their gender balance or to build up for a by-election when Leo heads off to Europe as he seems to have no interest in the constituency.

Personally I think Joan is done for although, contrary to an earlier poster here, I think she does a lot around the area and I have seen more of her than anyone except Roderick.
Last seat is likely to come down to when and if the Sinn Fein transfers are distributed. More of these are likely to go to Ruth than Joan.

AlanG · 15-01-2020 11:06am

ongarite wrote: »

Same, have hardly seen her since last election.
She is based/living near Cabra which isn't Dublin 15.
Going to be hard to raise her profile.

Navan Road moving into Dublin West basically saved her last time - Labour is strong in that area. She also spends a lot of time around Roselawn/Delwood in Blanch.

blanch152 · 15-01-2020 11:33am

It is hard to see Chambers losing a seat, and it is hard to see there being more than two seats for FF/FG, which means Currie will find it very difficult to take the last seat. However, she performed really well in the locals as a first-time candidate, albeit hoovering up Leo's vote.

SF did really badly in the locals, with the vote down on the last general election. Solidarity were well down as well. The Greens did really well taking a council seat in the two wards they contested.

I would see Varadkar and O'Gorman taking the first two seats. I think Donnelly's transfers will put Coppinger ahead of Burton with Chambers sitting on 80% of a quota after the first count and those two picking up the last two seats despite Chambers not attracting many transfers. Currie to finish fifth and miss a seat.

L1011 · 15-01-2020 11:41am

LorelaiG wrote: »

I doubt it. The issue with Solidarity losing their seats in the LEA's (imo anyway) was the split in the area's.

Areas splitting doesn't shed 3100 votes. Partys over, quite possibly literally.

Effectively people have finally realised that standing on the sidelines and shouting doesn't actually do anything.

Nijmegen · 15-01-2020 1:46pm

The socialists would need a miracle to win. They won 536 votes in Mulhuddart in the last locals; down from 3,270 the prior time (-2,734) and 719 in Castleknock; down from 1,332 last time (-613) and 666 in Ongar (which is net new) (source). 1,921 total in the old heart of Dublin West, down from 4,602 last time. 419 in all of Cabra, bearing in mind only part of it is now Dublin West.

So 1,921 is their starting position to win a seat in an area where at the last GE 6,445 was the floor to get a seat and 6,034 missed out. Turnout will be higher in a GE than a LE but that's your base to build from relative to the others. As we'll see below, so long, farewell, and thanks for the memories. People are fed up with their moaning.

Meanwhile the Greens got 4,401 between Mulhuddart and Castleknock and didn't run anyone in Ongar (where an oil executive could have run under their banner and won a seat, if they had registered), but if they had and got 10% as they did in Mulhuddart would have got about 5,000 votes as their starting point for a seat this run out. I'd bet they're uber transfer friendly.

Labour only got 2,471 between the 3 wards, so she really needs that Cabra vote but ultimately I think in a GE her name value will keep her above the Socialists, and it's really the order of elimination then (eg, say Emer Currie picks up a few thousand votes that will transfer a lot better to Labour than the Socialists).

Shinners got 3,946 across the core wards. But as ever their lack of transfer friendliness will be their problem.

Based on that, I'd say FG 1, FF 1, Greens 1 and then the betting man will need to decide between Labour or Shinners based on getting transfers, but shading towards Labour as I'd say Joan Burton will pull a higher vote personally than Donnelly of SF, close the FPV gap and do it on transfers. (But then again, Socialist votes could transfer his way if Coppinger goes out... So I'd say shading but I'd go either way.)

padd b1975 · 15-01-2020 1:50pm

Caranica wrote: »

I noted at least 3 different types of Ruth Coppinger posters on the Navan Road tonight. That's three elections worth of posters, throwing the kitchen sink at it!

Three different party names?

Larbre34 · 15-01-2020 2:21pm

Theres a seat in it for either Joan or Coppinger or Donnelly, will be a helluva bun fight.

I would expect Leo, Chambers, and O'Gorman, but cannot call it between Coppinger and Donnelly. I think Joan will be an also-ran this time

ArmaniJeanss · 15-01-2020 2:39pm

Spoke to Jack Chambers on my doorstep about 6 months ago, first time I've had a FF or FG at my house in Mulhuddart.
Wanted to hate the guy but he came across very well, and it was all cordial.

He acknowledged that he'd make serious mistakes on some of his early statements on the abortion issue, but he now considered it closed - Democracy had spoken, he'd support the legislation and didn't want the issue revisited.

I still won't be voting for him with any preference, but I think he'll retain his seat easily enough. Probably his for life now, when you've held once you basically become a fixture.

Roderic O' G will have my effective #1 as always, but not sure he'll do as well as people think. I suspect the Greens will have other target seats that are more easy to win and with higher profile candidates - they'll aim their resources at these constituencies instead of DW.

Leo keeps his seat obv and think Ruth's vote will hold up more than people here think. Paul Donnelly couldn't get in even when SF were riding high, so his time is gone imo. Joan may hold on again.

Boring Prediction : No change.

Caranica · 15-01-2020 2:49pm

padd b1975 wrote: »

Three different party names?

Stickers with the new party name on the old ones

victor8600 · 15-01-2020 3:14pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Spoke to Jack Chambers on my doorstep about 6 months ago, first time I've had a FF or FG at my house in Mulhuddart.
Wanted to hate the guy but he came across very well, and it was all cordial.
...
I still won't be voting for him with any preference....

Boring Prediction : No change.

Agreed 100%. I have talked to Jack Chambers twice and frankly found him eager but a bit dim. But at least he made it to my door! I would support socialists, and had good chats with Ruth C., but I am now too middle class and don't relate to their peddling of the "homelessness" issue and I don't see how they would help actual working people to get a house (as opposed to "working class" people -- whoever they are now).

Gaspode · 15-01-2020 3:14pm

Hi all, see note inserted in the first post - please declare any vested interest (as LorelaiG has done in post #6 ) before posting any further in this thread

OovyGroovyMan · 15-01-2020 4:27pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

He acknowledged that he'd make serious mistakes on some of his early statements on the abortion issue, but he now considered it closed - Democracy had spoken, he'd support the legislation and didn't want the issue revisited.

He has stated that publicly or officially anywhere, just out of interest?

ArmaniJeanss · 15-01-2020 4:42pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

He acknowledged that he'd make serious mistakes on some of his early statements on the abortion issue, but he now considered it closed - Democracy had spoken, he'd support the legislation and didn't want the issue revisited.

OovyGroovyMan wrote: »

He has stated that publicly or officially anywhere, just out of interest?

Not that I'm aware of, no.
He did vote for the legislation though whilst other FFers abstained, so it's somewhat reasonable to infer that that is his position. He is probably more a follower than a leader though, and knows which way the wind blows.

Will be interesting to see his trajectory though in future FF governments - it struck me whilst speaking to him that he is likely to be a Cabinet Minister over the next 20 years, maybe even the top job some day if the chips fall his way. :eek:

Past30Now · 15-01-2020 5:30pm

Traditionally FF & FG Taoisigh (sp?) were able to bring in a running mate at a general election. The best example being Bertie bringing in Royston or Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central a number of years ago, despite them getting c940 first preference votes. This is Leo's first election as Taoiseach. Any chance he could hoover up enough votes to get Emer Currie across the line?

A Knight of Ireland · 15-01-2020 5:43pm

Personally, I think it will be

1. Leo
2.Roderic
3 Chambers
4. Donnelly/Coppinger

I hope that Donnelly gets the nod before Coppinger. As said in a previous post, I think and hope that people have coped on to the fact that shouting abuse from the sidelines is not productive.

Anyone, think that Edward McManus has an outside chance? This new Aontu Party have definitely grown legs in the last year and their grassroots support in Dublin 15 is also growing based on the public meetings he has held.

I think Joan can throw her hat at it. It would be much more dignified if she called a halt to her political career now rather than facing a humiliating defeat at the polls

Past30Now · 15-01-2020 6:02pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

I think Joan can throw her hat at it. It would be much more dignified if she called a halt to her political career now rather than facing a humiliating defeat at the polls

I have a feeling that you are right with regards to her retaining her seat, but would have admiration for her for going for it. If she was going to step back, she should have done so at least a year ago, to give her party the opportunity to build up an alternative. It would possibly be John Walsh, and he's had a bit of profile around the area in the last couple of years, but it would be a tough gig for him in this election.

Zaph · 15-01-2020 6:05pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Anyone, think that Edward McManus has an outside chance? This new Aontu Party have definitely grown legs in the last year and their grassroots support in Dublin 15 is also growing based on the public meetings he has held.

As much as I hate her, if it meant the difference between Coppinger or McManus getting in I'd definitely give her a vote. If Aontu were the only party on the ballot paper I'd spoil my vote.

A Knight of Ireland · 15-01-2020 6:21pm

Because of their Pro-life stance?

Zaph · 15-01-2020 6:44pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Because of their Pro-life stance?

That would be a big part of it, but not the only factor.

antimatterx · 15-01-2020 6:52pm

Past30Now wrote: »

Traditionally FF & FG Taoisigh (sp?) were able to bring in a running mate at a general election. The best example being Bertie bringing in Royston or Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central a number of years ago, despite them getting c940 first preference votes. This is Leo's first election as Taoiseach. Any chance he could hoover up enough votes to get Emer Currie across the line?

Hopefully, she would make a Fine additional to the Dail

quickbeam · 15-01-2020 8:08pm

I have made my decision. Mostly based on who I hate least.

Up to when can candidates add themselves to the ballot? Or do we already have the final list of runners?

Why isn't there an official list of candidates running per constituency. The link in the OP is good. But there really should be somewhere official so all of the candidates can be seen otherwise the first time is in the ballot booth.

Nijmegen · 15-01-2020 8:43pm

Candidates can get added for a little while yet and then fingal will publish the list.

I suspect the play for Currie is to stay in politics long enough till Leo heads off to some European job and then take up her old mans seat in Dublin West. Another good dynasty job.

Bringing in a running mate even for a sitting Taoiseach in Dublin West the party would need to be polling in the high 30’s / low 40’s nationally.

Remind me · 15-01-2020 8:48pm

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Personally, I think it will be

1. Leo
2.Roderic
3 Chambers
4. Donnelly/Coppinger

I hope that Donnelly gets the nod before Coppinger. As said in a previous post, I think and hope that people have coped on to the fact that shouting abuse from the sidelines is not productive.

Anyone, think that Edward McManus has an outside chance? This new Aontu Party have definitely grown legs in the last year and their grassroots support in Dublin 15 is also growing based on the public meetings he has held.

I think Joan can throw her hat at it. It would be much more dignified if she called a halt to her political career now rather than facing a humiliating defeat at the polls

No chance for McManus. Didnt do well in the locals and he’s onto his 3rd political party.

Chambers won’t be behind Roderic.

I think first could be closer than people think between Taoiseach and Chambers followed but Roderic. I hope Burton retains over Coppinger or Donnelly but I think it’ll be Donnelly. SF won’t make the same mistake with him again this time around.

quickbeam · 15-01-2020 8:52pm

Remind me wrote: »

No chance for McManus. Didnt do well in the locals and he’s onto his 3rd political party.

Chambers won’t be behind Roderic.

I think first could be closer than people think between Taoiseach and Chambers followed but Roderic. I hope Burton retains over Coppinger or Donnelly but I think it’ll be Donnelly. SF won’t make the same mistake with him again this time around.

What other parties did McManus have?
What was the mistake SF made previously?

Murt10 · 15-01-2020 9:52pm

AlanG wrote: »

Navan Road moving into Dublin West basically saved her last time - Labour is strong in that area. She also spends a lot of time around Roselawn/Delwood in Blanch.

There are a lot of disgruntled civil and public servants living in that very area. Joan stood by, when the present leader of the party, that horrible little man from Wexford, while he was the Minister for the Public Service, decided to make them all work an extra day a month. Still rankles with them. They're still stuck with it.

That very same little man, again while he was Minister for the Public Service, decided single handedly that all civil and public servants were a bunch of malingerers, abusing the sick leave scheme.

He brought in absolutely draconian changes. Nobody I know of, would have minded in the least if he had decided to tackle any perceived malingerers head on, but no he decided that he had to cut everyone's sick leave in 1/2.

Heretofore, for as long as I can remember, I always gave my No 1 to Roderick and my No 2 to Joan. Not this time. My No 2 will be going elsewhere. Labour took a hammering in the last election and I wouldn't be surprised to see them totally wiped out this time.

rockatansky · 15-01-2020 9:57pm

Surprised to see some saying Coppinger will be in for a fight for her seat. Whenever there's a piece on the news relating to housing or social issues she seems to be the go to choice for a far left comment/interview by the media. She seems to have a lot of exposure.

Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

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