Goal marathon: conservative or all-in?

justdoit · 18-03-2019 11:13am #1

Hi all, looking for some opinions please, having lurked around these parts for a long time...

I'm running London Marathon on 28 April and am looking to lock down my strategy. I am undecided whether to set out at 4:37m/km for a 3h15 finish or hold back a small bit, setting out at 3h20 pace with a view to finishing strong.

Some background:

1. This will be my third marathon, and will likely be my last for at least a couple of years because if changing family circumstances (first baby due the week of the marathon!)

2. Current PBs: 5km 18:44 (Dec 18), 10km 39:48 (Oct 18), HM 1:27:18 (Jan 19), M 3:29:34 (Oct 17)

3. Training is going well, despite on ongoing hip niggle. I am following an 18 week plan and am broadly where I should be. My mileage (compared to many others) is relatively low, averaging 40-45 miles per week

4. I ran a 20 mile 'race' yesterday in Milton Keynes. I sat relatively comfortably on 3h15 marathon pace until 30km and the last 2km were tough, and I definitely did not have another 10km at that pace in my legs. I finished in 2:29:40.

5. My plan has a number of easy long runs yet to come and a 21 mile event in two weeks time, which I will aim to run slightly more conservatively (4:45m/km), with hope of feeling stronger at the end

I know that this decision ultimately needs to be my own, but I'd value the opinions of more experienced runners- push for what I think is the best I think I've got in current form and risk blowing up, or hold back slightly and potentially feel I've left something out there?

Sorry for long post, and thanks in advance.

robinph · 18-03-2019 5:22pm

I got asked approximately the same thing over the weekend by someone with a new addition to the family due shortly, I think you have to go for it but as long as you are prepared for it all to go wrong. If you have maximised your training for the build up to this April then you'll be waiting a long time before you get another opportunity in the years to come.

Do remember that the start of London is very fast, but also as you are presumably in the middle of the main field (rather than in GFA) then you'll be held up a good bit over those first few miles anyway, and that is a good thing. Unless the weather is really extreme there is no reason not to go for it. Don't over think how tough it was in the 20 miler though, that was a training run and you were not meant to be able to hold your target pace for 26 miles yet, that is for the end of next month and the reason that you ran the 20 miler.

Murph_D · 18-03-2019 10:14pm

I really think it’s impossible to advise with no information about your training. Recent half sounds like you’re in good shape but doesn’t tell a lot about your endurance. 20 mile race @ MP? Not sure that was a great idea 5-6 weeks out. What’s the training been like?

justdoit · 19-03-2019 9:15am

Thanks for the replies.

Murph, training has been 4-5 runs per week, with overall volume building, but broadly following this pattern:

Monday- Rest
Tuesday- Progressive 10/12km OR 400m hill repeats
Wednesday- Easy run (usually 10km) with strides at the end
Thursday- Cross train/ strength/ rest
Friday- Easy warm up, 3-5km intervals at HMP or MP with easy 1-3km recoveries
Saturday- Easy 5km
Sunday- Long run (mix of easy and MP)

Not sure if that gives enough of an insight to help?

gucci · 19-03-2019 10:55am

robinph wrote: »

I got asked approximately the same thing over the weekend by someone with a new addition to the family due shortly, I think you have to go for it but as long as you are prepared for it all to go wrong. If you have maximised your training for the build up to this April then you'll be waiting a long time before you get another opportunity in the years to come.

This is what i was going to say, if you have it in you and you have trained well then you will get out of it 98% of the time.
Any race that you empty the tank in will usually give you a very honest answer as to if you have over reached or not, but the marathon can be especially brutle as you may have an hour of suffering to go once it all goes to sh1t.

Be honest with yourself and work out your target time and focus on it.

(I have been honest and deliusional with myself in the past, the delusional me had a DNF because it all went to crap. I knew in my heart i hadnt the legs for my goal time, but still thought i would give it a go.....dont regret it though, i learned a valuable life lesson!)

Peterx · 20-03-2019 12:18pm

justdoit wrote: »

....opinions please......I'm running London Marathon on 28 April and am looking to lock down my strategy. I am undecided whether to set out at 4:37m/km for a 3h15 finish or hold back a small bit, setting out at 3h20 pace with a view to finishing strong.

Some background:

1. This will be my third marathon, and will likely be my last for at least a couple of years because if changing family circumstances.....push for what I think is the best I think I've got in current form and risk blowing up, or hold back slightly and potentially feel I've left something out there?

I was in a broadly similar situation to yourself in my last marathon and went conservative to halfway and then consciously picked it up and changed mental gears and "raced" to the finish.

So for you - 3:22 pace to halfway then stop looking at the watch and start racing - Focus on passing as many hundreds of people as you can for the third quarter and then try to do the same again for the final quarter.
Accepting/Embracing the fact that the final quarter will hurt an awful lot will help you keep toughing it out. You are giving yourself a good shot at a negative split with this approach and it's really good to be passing people in the second half of a marathon.

On the changing family circumstances - You can still run. Running is very family friendly compared to the likes of cycling or golf or whatnot.
Planning, communication and jealous use of all available time slots can mean you actually have the same amount of time for running that had in the more carefree pre kids time.
Most people waste a lot of time before kiddies without realising it.
Keep running.
edit - Perhaps you do plan to keep running and just not marathons?

justdoit · 20-03-2019 2:39pm

Thanks Peterx- appreciate you taking the time, and definitely more food for thought.

Will 100% continue running, but may be a little while before I can commit to a full marathon training block again. I think I can improve over all the shorter distances in the time I expect to be able to give to training (especially when the 'essential' running buggy is signed off for purchase!).

justdoit · 30-04-2019 10:14am

Just in case anybody was interested in how this played out at London Marathon, I set out at 3:15 pace and ran really consistently through 35km, but shortly thereafter the wheels came off. I had a slightly upset stomach in the morning, and it was grumbling throughout, but I had a Paula Radcliffe moment at 36km and really struggled from there on. Made it the finish in 3:28 and sat in a portaloo for 20 minutes until I was completely empty.

Disappointed, but no regrets, and I believe I made the right call. Hopefully I will get another crack at 3:15 once I figure out how to be a dad.

Thanks again for the advice.

gucci · 30-04-2019 10:57am

Good man, that sounds like a tough day at the office.
Positives, you have done a very good race despite feeling like crap and despite not having ideal preperation.

The reality is very few of us have a completely smooth training schedule and race day, so its all about managing the best we can, and it looks like thats what you did.
Relax now and enjoy becoming a dad and try get a few runs in when you can, but importantly RELAX and enjoy this special time with your family.

That time in the portaloo will stand to you for the nappy changes :P:P

You definetly have good training and experience in the system, that 3.15 will be well within your capabilities in future.

Murph_D · 30-04-2019 2:00pm

Tough run - I understand the dilemma you were in but I can’t understand your conclusion that you made the right call, as 3:15 was clearly too ambitious. If you held 3:15 pace for 35k and then finished in. 3:28, that last 7k+ must have been truly horrendous.

Sorry to be so blunt, but you won’t learn anything about the marathon if you believe that was a good call. Even if you’d trained appropriately, which doesn’t seem likely based on the info provided (e.g. 20 mile run at MP), if you felt poorly on the day you should have dialed it back from the start.

Hope the next experience is better and congrats on becoming a dad!

rainbow kirby · 30-04-2019 3:44pm

Don't think that kids are the end of your marathoning - I have a 3 year old and a 15 month old and I've done 3 since becoming a mum. I'm pretty slow though, 5 hours ish. Running buggies are a wonderful thing.

justdoit · 30-04-2019 3:54pm

Murph_D wrote: »

Tough run - I understand the dilemma you were in but I can’t understand your conclusion that you made the right call, as 3:15 was clearly too ambitious. If you held 3:15 pace for 35k and then finished in. 3:28, that last 7k+ must have been truly horrendous.

Sorry to be so blunt, but you won’t learn anything about the marathon if you believe that was a good call. Even if you’d trained appropriately, which doesn’t seem likely based on the info provided (e.g. 20 mile run at MP), if you felt poorly on the day you should have dialed it back from the start.

Hope the next experience is better and congrats on becoming a dad!

I'm happy to agree to disagree with you. ****ting in my shorts did make the last 5km truly horrendous and lost me all of that time (splits attached in previous post).

We will never know if that episode would have happened had I dialled it back from the start, but I feel pretty confident that I would have regretted not trying for a time I still believed I trained well for (20 miler six weeks out does not make an 18 week block a bad training block). 'Dialling it back from the start' because I didn't feel 100% would have meant adjusting to a sub 3:30 pace, which would not have been guaranteed (but I achieved anyway) and which would have left me wondering.

No need to apologise for giving your opinion (I asked for it), but despite your viewpoint, I did learn a lot about the marathon on Sunday. As you know, appropriate training is only one of several elements that make or break a persons race on the day, and some of those elements are out of our control.

Thanks for the good wishes.

Murph_D · 30-04-2019 4:24pm

Well, as they say, there are no pictures on the scoreboard. At the end of the day, it's a 3:28 marathon, which was at least a PB, so that's something. I know how it feels to finish way worse than how I started, believe me! At the end of the day, you have to accept the result you got. Thanks for coming back to share the experience.

healy1835 · 30-04-2019 4:43pm

Sounds like you needed a different kind of 'Paula Radcliffe Moment' to hit your A goal

from experience, running helped out a lot in figuring out how to be a Dad. Biggest regret is that I only bought a running buggy when no3 came along!

Goal marathon: conservative or all-in?

Comments