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08-09-2019, 22:47   #61
highdef
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Wind has decreased a lot in the past few hours. Looks like a typical wet and breezy morning now - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5U4AEiLt5U
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08-09-2019, 23:52   #62
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NHK have reported the highest gust was 209 kph at Chiba and the highest rainfall total so far of 430 mm in 12 hours in some other place.
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09-09-2019, 00:10   #63
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INVEST 94L could become depression over the next few days, but what happens after that is anyone's guess.

Live charts



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12-09-2019, 14:26   #64
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Latest model run keeping it a relatively tame feature, but as we know, nothing can be ruled out yet.

Prep total chart up to 0z Sun, gives a rough idea as to where the worst impacts are forecast to occur.



Not great news at all for the regions already battered by Dorian, but could be a lot worse.. and hopefully it won't end up being so.

Latest from NOAA:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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12-09-2019, 20:05   #65
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https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/...259945985?s=19
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12-09-2019, 23:16   #66
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Just watched a good discussion from Tropical Tidbits on this pretty complex feature:

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13-09-2019, 13:42   #67
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Still seems to be a lot of uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of this storm, of which Jack Sillin (weather.us) discusses here:

https://blog.weather.us/ptc-9-likely...-this-weekend/

General consensus seems to be that it will intensify once it has cleared north of the Bahamas. NOAA has an 80% chance it will develop into a TS within 48 hours, and 90% within 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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14-09-2019, 00:16   #68
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Humberto should be named overnight. The track is well further east now, missing the US but now aiming right at Bermuda. As a result of its more easterly track the intensity guidance has been trending upwards too throughout the day. Bermuda could get interesting next week.





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14-09-2019, 12:15   #69
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Humberto is still struggling to develop any real structure, with sporadic deep convection popping up in different sectors. The latest microwave pass shows it to the southeast and east of the centre.

Latest track has it passing around 73 NM from Bermuda, however it will be over lower ocean heat content and increasing shear by then so it looks like maxing out at Cat 1 or maybe 2..





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15-09-2019, 15:26   #70
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Latest models have it passing close to the N of Bermuda and still potentially quite dangerous for the region:



Long way off though but all eyes on.
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15-09-2019, 21:22   #71
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Humberto's intensified well in the last couple of hours, with an eye starting to form on microwave imagery at 1706Z. Aircraft data just now found the central pressure down below 990 hPa and max SFMR winds of 59 knots. It'll probably be upgraded to hurricane by the 10 pm update.

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15-09-2019, 22:21   #72
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Nope, it's still just under hurricane-status in their latest update just now.


Quote:
Humberto's convective structure continues to improve in satellite imagery and reflectivity data from the Melbourne NOAA Doppler weather radar, including intermittent appearances of a closed eye. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Humberto this afternoon found SFMR winds of 58-59 kt in the northeastern quadrant outside of the heaviest rain areas, and that the pressure had fallen 4 mb during the past 2 hours, now down to 989 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 360/05 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Humberto is likely located on or near an east-west oriented ridge axis, and a sharp turn toward the northeast is likely during the next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC model guidance remains highly convergent on the previous forecast track and continues to show the cyclone gradually being accelerated toward the northeast and
east-northeast during the 24-120 hour period. The large deep-layer trough and associated cold front that will be digging southward out of eastern Canada and the northeastern United States is forecast by the ECMWF model to develop a cutoff low over the northwestern Atlantic that results in some binary interaction with Humberto on day 5. However, this is a new development and is considered to be an outlier scenario at this time. The new forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus track models.

Likewise, there is no significant change to previous intensity forecast. All of the available model guidance continues to support steady strengthening for the 3 days. In 48-72 hours, Humberto is forecast to be moving into the right-rear quadrant of a strong, anticyclonically curved 300-200 mb jet maximum. The associated strong baroclinic/dynamical forcing is expected to produce strong pressure falls and strengthening despite the hostile vertical wind shear conditions of at least 30 kt. On days 4 and 5, the combination of slightly cooler waters, drier and more stable air, and much stronger vertical shear of 40-50 kt should cause steady weakening despite the favorable jetstream dynamics. The previous NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged, and continues to show Humberto reaching its peak intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest sea-surface temperatures and strongest jetstream dynamical forcing.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 29.3N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 30.4N 75.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 30.7N 73.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 31.7N 68.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 35.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 39.6N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 15-09-2019 at 22:27.
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15-09-2019, 23:10   #73
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Pressure's dropped further now, down to 987 hPa.
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16-09-2019, 07:31   #74
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Humberto is just about a hurricane now at 65 kts, 988 hPa. Still a bit of dry air spiralling in from the southwest but an eye should form soon. The latest track still has it passing 70 NM from Bermuda at its closest point, so they will dodge the bullet.



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16-09-2019, 14:50   #75
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Latest recon data 977 hPa, max FL wind 86 kts, max SFMR surface wind 73 kts .
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