Cold throughout the coming week.Snow for some

Villain · 06-02-2007 9:16pm

Cheers guys, you'd think they would have it nearer the top.

Snowbie · 06-02-2007 9:18pm

Here irish1
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0206/6news_av.html?2216670,null,230

EDIT:didnt see the other posts,very true croppy,took me this long to find the link.

rc28 · 06-02-2007 9:31pm

I have to say Evelyn presents the forecast with way more clarity than the rest of them at the met.

Ryanoneill2006 · 06-02-2007 9:52pm

God its very quiet in here tonight.. Thought there would be some major ramping going on!! Where's Weathercheck

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 9:55pm

Ryanoneill2006 wrote:

Where's Weathercheck

Up in Met Éireann making sure they say the s word in the next forecast

Tis quiet alright

SpitfireIV · 06-02-2007 9:58pm

I'm still here........just waiting for someone more skilled at weather than me to say something

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 10:08pm

Ok, some more negativity from me. Below image is the risk chart from the UK Met...If they were to continue and cover Ireland, you would figure that from around Dundalk to Roscrea would be in the 30% risk bracket? By that same logic Wexford/Waterford would be in the 60%? Or am I way off the mark? (someone please tell me I am)

ninebeanrows · 06-02-2007 10:10pm

Im here! But there isn't really much to add from what i said earlier.. from here on in its about actual events and this means satellite and radar watching from tomorrow morning.

It seems at the moment that the snow will affect worst.. areas of Northern Leinster, the Northern Midlands and southern Ulster.

This is where the band is likely to stay as snow throughout.

Further south there is the liklyhood of lying snow but it may turn back to rain towards midday Thursday.

Now the keen wind from the east will reach mean speeds of around 35mph along the east coast during Thursday, this will increase the liklyhood of heavy snow reaching the ground and may cause lying snow to drift.

I expect the snow to begin falling in Dublin from around 3/4am on Thursday morning. The snow will be moderate to heavy and by midday Thursday there should be upto 10cm's lying or more in some parts of Dublin. The north midlands will fair best with totals possibly exceeding 20cm's

Areas within 1km of the coast and at sea level will have less accumulations than those 5 or 6km's inland.

So thats my synopsis.

Will be available all afternoon from 1pm tomorrow to watch the developing situation... It's is going to be an interesting day and probably a very long night tomorrow so ensure you get plenty of sleep if you considering taking this to the bitter end... ie. staying up to 4am!:D

Now to the 18z... should be out momentarily

ninebeanrows · 06-02-2007 10:19pm

Felixdhc wrote:

Ok, some more negativity from me. Below image is the risk chart from the UK Met...If they were to continue and cover Ireland, you would figure that from around Dundalk to Roscrea would be in the 30% risk bracket? By that same logic Wexford/Waterford would be in the 60%? Or am I way off the mark? (someone please tell me I am)

I was abit miffed by that but that was based on the 0z ukm.. 12z has move it a good bit further north.. the 12z UKM would definately give snow here as in central Dublin;)

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 10:26pm

Weathercheck wrote:

I was abit miffed by that but that was based on the 0z ukm.. 12z has move it a good bit further north.. the 12z UKM would definately give snow here as in central Dublin;)

Cheers, lets hope its not pushed south again on the next few runs :eek:

Supercell · 06-02-2007 10:29pm

Boards is painfully slow this evening, next to unusable , at least on dialup.

I'm holding fire on forcasts of precipitation until tomorrow after work, this all important low could still go too far north or too far south for here, no point in forecasting snow just yet.
I'd guess Waterford city and north county is most likely to see some snow at least temporarily, but beyond that..its all in the air (literally) imho.

Ryanoneill2006 · 06-02-2007 10:52pm

It's good to see that Met Eireann are now warning a threat of snow on their weather reports. Evelyn Cusack mentioned significant falls especially in Leinster and Munster. Its a welcome change for me as its usually Ulster and Connaught!! Still not sure whether to get my hopes up or not.. There have been too many let downs in the past.

arctictree · 06-02-2007 10:52pm

Longfield - can you not get broadband where you are? Don't worry boards is slow for the rest of us aswell. Seems to be server issues.

OK - Just seen the 9:30 forecast from Evelyn.

This looks like it could be a major event for Dublin. Timing is right (4am) and it is frontal snow - which is a completely different animal from what we experienced a couple of weeks ago. Thursday morning will definitely be interesting.

What happens up here is a different story....

A

Snowbie · 06-02-2007 11:55pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Now to the 18z... should be out momentarily

Guess you saw the 18z too.

Scubadevils · 06-02-2007 11:55pm

18z, downgrade for tomorrow night?

SpitfireIV · 06-02-2007 11:57pm

Snowbie wrote:

Guess you saw the 18z too.

Felixdhc wrote:

18z, downgrade for tomorrow night?

Oh oh, doesnt sound good, please explain for us not 'in the know'

nacho libre · 07-02-2007 12:02am

If it doesn't snow tomorrow night and continue till Thursday afternoon i'm going
to a country with a colder climate for the rest of the winter.
It's going to snow! positive thinking...!!

Snowbie · 07-02-2007 12:08am

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Oh oh, doesnt sound good, please explain for us not 'in the know'

Remember my reply to your question before

Snowbie wrote:

Sorry croppy but there is no straight definite answer for you.These things can change at +12 hrs out.You are a favoured location but 100% are the mountains.No met person is clear on it too.What you will hear is southern half or northern half of the country.TBH im one of the lesser likely to get the white stuff but you have a good decent chance.Wedensday evening will paint a clearer pic for you.

Not all doom and gloom but not a good run.Proggs the front farther to the North.Id still wait untill 6/1 forecast tomorrow to be sure if you get snow or something else.

Scubadevils · 07-02-2007 12:10am

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Oh oh, doesnt sound good, please explain for us not 'in the know'

From my extremely limted knowledge, the low moves quicker and in a more nth direction pulling in warmer air...we are borderline -5 850hpa by 12am tomorrow night. I expect to stand corrected on this though

Also, even more telling, neither Weathercheck or Darkman have commented, which cant be good.

Oh and for the sake of downgrades :mad:

darkman2 · 07-02-2007 12:12am

The 18z tonight is ok but its not great. Still snow in the expected places but its more progressive then the others. Sends the front through quicker and not quite at the angle we would like. Also sends it further North. So its not bad but it could have been better. Still the UKMO looks great and hopefully tomorrow we will have certainty with what will happen. Still good prospects.:)

SpitfireIV · 07-02-2007 12:13am

Cheers Snowbie and Felixdhc, ye're two gents amoung...ehh......lots of weather folk

Snowbie · 07-02-2007 12:16am

True Felix good account,ah the two rampers are in turmoil id say.:D

All things can change again.Its a bad run,1 out of a lot of good runs,ok bad timing but who knows.

Scubadevils · 07-02-2007 12:17am

darkman2 wrote:

The 18z tonight is ok but its not great. Still snow in the expected places but its more progressive then the others. Sends the front through quicker and not quite at the angle we would like. Also sends it further North. So its not bad but it could have been better. Still the UKMO looks great and hopefully tomorrow we will have certainty with what will happen. Still good prospects.:)

What do you make of the latest fax charts? Whatever attempts I can make on the models with nice colours etc

I havent a clue about the faxes

Oh and 18z, pub run hopefully

Villain · 07-02-2007 12:27am

Ah thats the pub run, ignore that

Seriously though it is a bad downgrade for now, wouldn't be the first time I saw a downgrade on the pub run.

Lets just wait and see.

darkman2 · 07-02-2007 12:31am

Snowbie wrote:

True Felix good account,ah the two rampers are in turmoil id say.:D

All things can change again.Its a bad run,1 out of a lot of good runs,ok bad timing but who knows.

Firstly the 18z is not bad by any means and also im not 'ramping' up snow. Like I keep saying too much uncertainty to get excited atm. What I want is clarity either way. Either its going to snow or its not. Unfortunatley it would appear tonight that there is the same confusion there was last night and we are not going to be able to say with any certainty whats going to happen on Thursday. I would not want people to think that some sort of cosmic event or something is going to happen on Thursday. I expect at best moderate snowfall Thursday morning. Thats at best IMO. At worst I expect sleet in the morning then rain.:rolleyes:

Still time for things to improve further.

darkman2 · 07-02-2007 12:33am

Felixdhc wrote:

What do you make of the latest fax charts? Whatever attempts I can make on the models with nice colours etc I havent a clue about the faxes

Oh and 18z, pub run hopefully

The fax charts are excellent. An entire day of snow on Thursday from those charts HOWEVER those charts inevitably are going to change to varying degrees between now and Thursday. Still up in the air.:)

Scubadevils · 07-02-2007 12:42am

darkman2 wrote:

The fax charts are excellent. An entire day of snow on Thursday from those charts HOWEVER those charts inevitably are going to change to varying degrees between now and Thursday. Still up in the air.:)

Cheers Darkman

I wonder how they are feeling about the 18z output at the NOAA - I saw yesterday that they dismissed most runs and felt they were too progressive, couldnt find the link tonight to see if there are comments, prob straw`clutching anyway

We should know by this time tomorrow night, and if it goes t*ts up, I want suggestions for a new hobby for next winter

squonk · 07-02-2007 1:05am

Just heard the 11:55 Radio 1 weather now and the Eagle didn't ramp up anything much. They're very much pushing the sleet turning to rain scenario. Out here in Skerries we've got cloud but it could be a bank of mist. It'll be interesting alright to see what's happening this time tomorrow but I'd imagine this will end up in tears as usual.... want to eat my words in the end though

ninebeanrows · 07-02-2007 7:13am

Okay folks the UKMO 0z is in

And its great or actually kinda worrying

Heavy snow will reach Dublin around 1am now... With temps @1c... snow will get heavier and @6am it will be 0c with Heavy snow.. By midday tomorrow it will be 0/1c with snow pushing away north:D

ninebeanrows · 07-02-2007 7:52am

Today

Overnight falls of snow along the East Coast and severe frost will leave very icy conditions on untreated roads. Otherwise many places will be dry, bright and sunny his morning with patches of freezing fog gradually lifting. Cold, as temperatures remain below freezing for a good part of the morning but will then slowly rise to between 4 and 7C. Outbreaks of rain sleet and snow will gradually develop through the day in southwest Munster as southeasterly winds strenghten.

Tonight

Rain, sleet and snow will then extend to the rest of country this evening and tonight. It will be cold and windy with lowest temperatures between -2 and +3C.

horizontal rule

Tomorrow

Further rain, sleet and snow in the northern half of the country tomorrow morning.

Im sorry but surely that is not acceptable.. at less than a day out surely they have to give some indication of where will see snow or not..

Theres abig difference between 12 hours + of rain and snow.. poor show tbh.. they should be at least indicating where they think the snow will be..

Anyway it has absolutely no baring on anything.. Snow from 1am in Dublin tonite;)

ninebeanrows · 07-02-2007 8:59am

The 755 forecast indicated that there will be accumalations of snow but Eagleton indicated that it was be a transient affair...

I don't think so maybe for southern counties but this front is more than likely to stay as snow until it fizzles out tomorrow.;)

lucernarian · 07-02-2007 9:11am

Met Éireann have southwesterly winds in Northern Ireland on Thursday!!! I think I can reliably say that those winds will not reach NI on Thursday afternoon. Thursday night at the earliest. Thankfully this morning, the most important charts are showing the perfect scenario, the FAX charts. I'm still concerned that there is no weather warning whatsoever for Northern Ireland, as I'm a bit closer to the border than I am to Dublin.

The differences between Met Éireann's midday tomorrow atlantic chart and the UKMO 36 hour FAX chart are fairly big considering it's almost a nowcast situation. And the differences are interesting. A pity Met Éireann don't have dam lines on their charts...

Anyway, lets hope there is snow falling somewhere not too far away when I come back here this evening.:)

Btw did John Eagleton say where the accumulations were expected and at what time?

lucernarian · 07-02-2007 9:17am

Hey, have a look at this: The UKMO rainfall predictor:D:D

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_radar.html

There's a possibility of 9 hours snow there for me. But that's asking a lot I fear:(

ninebeanrows · 07-02-2007 9:19am

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Met Éireann have southwesterly winds in Northern Ireland on Thursday!!! I think I can reliably say that those winds will not reach NI on Thursday afternoon. Thursday night at the earliest. Thankfully this morning, the most important charts are showing the perfect scenario, the FAX charts. I'm still concerned that there is no weather warning whatsoever for Northern Ireland, as I'm a bit closer to the border than I am to Dublin.

The differences between Met Éireann's midday tomorrow atlantic chart and the UKMO 36 hour FAX chart are fairly big considering it's almost a nowcast situation. And the differences are interesting. A pity Met Éireann don't have dam lines on their charts...

Anyway, lets hope there is snow falling somewhere not too far away when I come back here this evening.:)

Btw did John Eagleton say where the accumulations were expected and at what time?

No times, he was very vague, just said it would be a miracle of some areas doe not see accumalations of snow..

Im don't really care to be honest what they had of said! I was just looking for reassurence!!

MetO is keeping this run as snow totally with a very hard frost on Thursday night. Worst time will probably be around 8am tomorrow.. realistically around Dublin 3/4 inches are likely but if things turn out good there could be 5/6 inches in a few places.

Around 9/12 hours of moderate snowfall from 1am tonight..

ninebeanrows · 07-02-2007 9:20am

Also im pretty sure the updated warning this morning include Northern Ireland although falls in actual Northern Ireland will probably not be very heavy but still 3 inches or more likely here..

Worst is the Mids i think around WestMeath, Kildare... upto 6 inches or more possible.

Scubadevils · 07-02-2007 9:25am

What concerns me a little still is that Dublin airport had a sleet shower last night at 1am and a temp of -1c. Also, both Snowbie and Darkman reported a mix of snow, wet snow and sleet overnight. Surely last night was colder than tonight will be given the risk of warmer air associated with the low? Again, I expect to stand corrected

A slight peppering of snow here this morning, not a covering by any means, but a peppering

What did the 00z indicate, was it better than the 18z?

Edit - I just looked, I see the 00z was no improvement

ninebeanrows · 07-02-2007 9:32am

Felixdhc wrote:

What concerns me a little still is that Dublin airport had a sleet shower last night at 1am and a temp of -1c. Also, both Snowbie and Darkman reported a mix of snow, wet snow and sleet overnight. Surely last night was colder than tonight will be given the risk of warmer air associated with the low? Again, I expect to stand corrected

A slight peppering of snow here this morning, not a covering by any means, but a peppering

What did the 00z indicate, was it better than the 18z?

Edit - I just looked, I see the 00z was no improvement

Your looking at the GFS which is duff at the moment for these mesoscael situations..

And last nite there was a mix between snow and small hail which .. commonly mis read as sleet.

check out 0z UKMO on meteociel.fr

Ryanoneill2006 · 07-02-2007 10:43am

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but does this mean that metcheck are forecasting 9cm of snow in Dublin tomorrow?... :eek: That would be nice!

Does anybody know what they base this on and how reliable is it?

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/tomorrow.asp?zipcode=Dublin

EDIT: Just noticed that its 9mm but it does mention 5.7cm!!!

Scubadevils · 07-02-2007 12:03pm

Dont know whether you can go by metchecks predictions but for each period you would need to add up what they are showing - i.e. From 12am to 12pm would equate to well over 20cm :eek: Although 6am to 9am is showing heavy sleet and 9mm in total. Large pinch of salt I would think.

Scubadevils · 07-02-2007 12:05pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Your looking at the GFS which is duff at the moment for these mesoscael situations..

And last nite there was a mix between snow and small hail which .. commonly mis read as sleet.

check out 0z UKMO on meteociel.fr

Being a doubter even the 0z UKMO doesn't convince me (temps look very borderline still) but I will gladly have egg on my face later if it happens

arctictree · 08-02-2007 11:18am

OK - Now to start this all over again!!

Is this another snow event forecast for midday Sat:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_60.jpg

A

Villain · 08-02-2007 11:20am

Now just because you got snow, don't start us all over again one let down a week is more than enough

darkman2 · 08-02-2007 1:04pm

There is an increasing risk on Saturday but atm it looks to be for Ulster with perhaps some sleet further south however it is subject to upgrades.

darkman2 · 08-02-2007 6:20pm

Update to this:

Big upgrade for tomorrow night into Saturday on the 12z UKMO. Could be some problems if it comes off.

Supercell · 08-02-2007 6:29pm

darkman2 wrote:

Update to this:

Big upgrade for tomorrow night into Saturday on the 12z UKMO. Could be some problems if it comes off.

Good stuff, hopefully those that missed out today will have better luck then.
I reckon poor WC needs cheering up after his mocks today.

silverski · 08-02-2007 6:30pm

Darkman2, can you explain some more details please.

Thanks
Silverski

darkman2 · 08-02-2007 6:44pm

Yes.

Its not Saturday itself but tomorrow night and the early hours of Saturday morning. Basically it looks like a similar setup to what we have now although like last night the East coast would be marginal again but inland could be a re-run. Again the cold air is stubborn to move and again it looks like a situation where the mild air trys to win out. Ultimately it will this time but there is a definate risk of transitional wintry weather especially further north. This is by no means certain though because there is uncertainty amongst the various models. Not saying it will happen and even if it does it will only be transitional, turning to rain on Saturady after sun rise.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-21.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-7.GIF

Predicted temperature at 7am Saturday Morning:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U42-580.GIF

Predicted Precipitation at 7am Saturday:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW42-594.GIF

I would like to see the 1am chart but its not there atm. Definatley a risk of sleet. Snow possible inland and on high ground but only for a time.

ninebeanrows · 08-02-2007 7:21pm

darkman2 wrote:

Yes.

Its not Saturday itself but tomorrow night and the early hours of Saturday morning. Basically it looks like a similar setup to what we have now although like last night the East coast would be marginal again but inland could be a re-run. Again the cold air is stubborn to move and again it looks like a situation where the mild air trys to win out. Ultimately it will this time but there is a definate risk of transitional wintry weather especially further north. This is by no means certain though because there is uncertainty amongst the various models. Not saying it will happen and even if it does it will only be transitional, turning to rain on Saturady after sun rise.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-21.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-7.GIF

Predicted temperature at 7am Saturday Morning:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U42-580.GIF

Predicted Precipitation at 7am Saturday:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW42-594.GIF

I would like to see the 1am chart but its not there atm. Definatley a risk of sleet. Snow possible inland and on high ground but only for a time.

Wouldnt be a hope in hell of snow from them charts.. maybe above 400meters .. might be some wet snow for Longfield and Artictree

Supercell · 08-02-2007 7:23pm

Was thinking the same but didn't want to say it.

Must be massive amounts of lying snow at 400 metres plus, if anyone wants snow I suggest they hop into a car and drive to the Wicklow mountains tomorrow (or convince some with a car to take a spin!), believe me there is a LOT of the stuff!!

Takeshi_Kovacs · 08-02-2007 7:49pm

Longfield wrote:

Was thinking the same but didn't want to say it.

Must be massive amounts of lying snow at 400 metres plus, if anyone wants snow I suggest they hop into a car and drive to the Wicklow mountains tomorrow (or convince some with a car to take a spin!), believe me there is a LOT of the stuff!!

Yes, there is a lot of snow on high ground in the Reeks down here in Kerry. The Beenkeragh, Carrauntuohil, Caher horseshoe looked frakkin class, how long before it melts though, before we revert back to scuttery wind and rain again, i don't know.

Cold throughout the coming week.Snow for some

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