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20-11-2011, 19:13   #1
darkman2
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Model Discussion Thread - short term

Seems we are missing a thread dedicated to the computer models. Think we should start one.

To christen the thread we have a wonderfully mild ECM run showing little in the way of change for the forseeable future with just the odd incursion of cooler air at times with a hint of frost some nights too.




The less said about it the better I think..
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20-11-2011, 19:15   #2
Musicman2000
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Yeah one word disaster
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20-11-2011, 19:18   #3
 
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Is this not just a duplicate of the FI thread? That chart is for 8 days into the future. I would take model outlook to mean what they're trending towards outside the normal 5-7 day reliability timeframe, i.e. Fantasy Island!
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20-11-2011, 19:26   #4
 
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No harm in having a thread for more of a proper look at what's going to happen, leave the FI thread for posting unrealistic eye candy well into the future

Bit of a disastrous ECM this evening, high pressure around the Bay of Biscay pumping in Atlantic weather all week
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20-11-2011, 19:32   #5
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Yeah we've had this problem in previous years as what to set the FI time frame at.

To me anything past 120h is FI however in certain conditions it can be 24 h or less
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20-11-2011, 19:54   #6
 
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I'd take it simply when the ensemble numbers start to noticeably spread which at the moment is around 120h on the 25th

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20-11-2011, 19:55   #7
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If people could agree to make this a thread for models no more than 7 days ahead or some other figure then it shouldn't duplicate the FI thread.
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20-11-2011, 20:19   #8
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Originally Posted by dsmythy View Post
If people could agree to make this a thread for models no more than 7 days ahead or some other figure then it shouldn't duplicate the FI thread.
Yeah that seems reasonable... and to be entitled in the thread name maybe?
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20-11-2011, 20:40   #9
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How about renaming this thread.. Model Outlook day 1-7 and the other thread Model Outlook day 7- 14(FI)
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20-11-2011, 21:02   #10
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Or how about, just like on other weather forums, we make things simple and have just one forecasting model output discussion?

Having two threads just adds unnecessary clutter and confusion.
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20-11-2011, 21:06   #11
 
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I think this is a good idea in one way, i.e. the FI thread is generally for unrealistic charts that rarely or never come off, whereas this is good for the short term discussion. On the other hand, whenever anything remotely interesting comes up we tend to have a dedicated thread for it anyway, so this might not be necessary.

If the thread is kept specifically for discussion of realistic threads, and not random off topic chat like e.g. the winter thread, then I would say it will work. If it veers towards general outlook (not specifically models) then the thread will lose its purpose.
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20-11-2011, 21:12   #12
derekon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
Seems we are missing a thread dedicated to the computer models. Think we should start one.

To christen the thread we have a wonderfully mild ECM run showing little in the way of change for the forseeable future with just the odd incursion of cooler air at times with a hint of frost some nights too.




The less said about it the better I think..


Hey Darkman2,

Given your reputation as a notorious cold ramper (I refer to recent thread about cold from the 16th November onwards that never materialised), I take it you are being slightly sarcastic in the above post?!

PS - are you finding the current period of very mild weather frustrating? Also, I am looking forward to the times this winter when you post your "warnings"....always entertaining and great to see you back on the boards!

Finally, what are your own views on what winter 2011-2012 holds for Ireland? I associate your posts with the winter season for some reason so would be interested to hear your thoughts on the winter ahead...............

D
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20-11-2011, 21:31   #13
 
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I've changed the thread title to diffentiate it from the FI thread. We should use this one for discussing more reliable model output scenarios, and any differences between the different models, rather than the outlandish FI scenarios. Use this one for "homing in" on an upcoming weather event.
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20-11-2011, 22:14   #14
darkman2
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Originally Posted by derekon View Post
Hey Darkman2,

Given your reputation as a notorious cold ramper (I refer to recent thread about cold from the 16th November onwards that never materialised), I take it you are being slightly sarcastic in the above post?!


Yeah it's sarcasm.

I am not a cold "ramper" btw. I like all sorts of weather. All weather has it's individual moments that I personally enjoy. Still i'd rather see something more interesting then what is currently forecast.


Rampant Jet Stream, Polar Vortex in the wrong place - preferably it (the blues and purples) should really be over Scandinavia and little in the teleconnections to be overjoyed at either because the AO and NAO across the board look like staying in positive territory for the time being reflected in the synoptic charts, high pressure to the South - low pressure to the North.

Hopefully the PV will weaken or move and the Jet Stream will amplify. We need everything to slow down. It's too fast. With the PV anywhere over Greenland and we ain't unlocking the door to cold weather. Hopefully we will eventually get some pressure rise there.

Things can change quickly though as we know. Forecast could be completely different tomorrow.


Max temperatures of 4 - 6c on Friday with a hard frost Friday night?



P.S derekon for the Winter ahead (i do dislike Winter forecasts btw - others here trust them more then I do) my own opinion is that it will be a cold Winter overall with plenty of ice and snow and that sort of craic but later in the season then last year. Can't see that kind of a major change until well into December at this stage. I am not confident about that. Just a feeling I have about it. MT goes into these forecasts in some detail. My advice would be to take his advice


The 18z GFS tonight is not too bad btw. Some encouraging signals early in the run for coldies.


Just an example from the 18z run of what we want to see. High pressure in the Atlantic anchored from Greenland means happy days! (although this is not perfect it's a good sign just to see it)


Last edited by darkman2; 20-11-2011 at 23:12.
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20-11-2011, 23:17   #15
riffmongous
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Aw, I thought there was going to be a discussion on the actual models themselves and the physics/computing behind them
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