Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

fliball123 · 14-05-2021 4:25pm

PommieBast wrote: »

The Dublin 1 apartment I was sale agreed on last year but then pulled out of turned up on BidX and went for about 8% less than what I offered. Makes me glad I got out..

I think this may be the exception all prices seem to have gone up since this time last year

Roberto_gas · 14-05-2021 4:30pm

Supply and demand can change pretty drastically....once travel opens up after COVID you may see mass emigration for example ! Things definitely dont look good from supply side ! However demand can go down pretty quick as many people are just waiting to explore options elsewhere outside Ireland..but...its same story everywhere in terms of housing !

tobsey · 14-05-2021 4:36pm

PropQueries wrote: »

But the supply/demand figures used by the Government, media etc. are based upon the Central Bank figures (pre-covid) that estimated we require 30k - 35k homes per annum to meed demand.

It's based on net inward migration remaining at c. 30,000 per annum going forward despite the same report stating that "net migration contributed negatively to population growth during the years 2011 to 2016". It's also based on c. 5,000 existing homes becoming obsolete each and every year and needing to be replaced.

If someone takes the view that net inward migration levels won't be anywhere near these levels going forward (and may even reverse) and that the projected obsolescence levels are doubtful, we may be already building more than enough homes per year to meet demand, which the same report puts at c. 18k units per annum without inward migration or obsolescence. We built c. 20k new units last year.

You could be right about the migration figures reversing, but that’s by no means guaranteed. Many people who emigrated in 2011-2016 may come back to keep the figures up. Our economy was very strong pre-Covid and there’s every chance it will continue to do well in the next few years. So no reason to say definitively that net migration will be negative.

I don’t think you’ll find anyone, anywhere, who thinks that 18k new builds a year could be enough. I know you’ve put thought into that figure but it’s not a credible number when no other research I’m aware of remotely agrees. Pent up demand to date means we need more than the natural increase in demand anyway just to catch up.

I’ve said many times here that we built over 130k homes in 2006 & 2007. That for me, tied with the vastly lower levels of debt in the property industry, tells me that we won’t have a repeat of 2010-2015. Anyone waiting to buy a home for a song is taking a massive gamble that they’ll never end up buying at all.

hometruths · 14-05-2021 4:40pm

tobsey wrote: »

I don’t think you’ll find anyone, anywhere, who thinks that 18k new builds a year could be enough. I know you’ve put thought into that figure but it’s not a credible number when no other research I’m aware of remotely agrees. Pent up demand to date means we need more than the natural increase in demand anyway just to catch up. .

I think it could be enough!

Not sure if I agree with immigration predictions, but I agree with Props point on obsolete properties.

Graham · 14-05-2021 4:52pm

tobsey wrote: »

You could be right about the migration figures reversing, but that’s by no means guaranteed. Many people who emigrated in 2011-2016 may come back to keep the figures up. Our economy was very strong pre-Covid and there’s every chance it will continue to do well in the next few years. So no reason to say definitively that net migration will be negative.

+1

Our economy has also been pretty resilient so far compared to some EU countries. That could make Ireland an attractive destination for some.

PropQueries · 14-05-2021 5:08pm

Graham wrote: »

+1

Our economy has also been pretty resilient so far compared to some EU countries. That could make Ireland an attractive destination for some.

Possible. However, from listening to the people from the world bank, EU politicians etc. speaking over the past few months about the multinationals based here for tax reasons and upcoming global tax reforms.

They have being using (what I regard) as kind of patronising lines like we shouldn’t worry as we are an English speaking country, have close relations to the USA, have an educated workforce etc. etc. and that we will keep attracting them even if the global tax reforms go against us.

Given their previous animosity towards our tax system, it seemed a bit weird that they’re being all nice to us all of a sudden IMO

Roberto_gas · 14-05-2021 5:19pm

Few key factors which will drive economy and housing in general

1) Someone will have to pay for the gov support given to jobless:possibly the tax payers !
2) Some business have had permanent damage. We will find real economy data when the gov support stops !
3) Young generation have been almost kicked out if market if si gle earner. They will emigrate !
4) Many of the jobless on gov allowances have been able to pay mortgages currently..they may struggle or may not once the allowances stop

And points 1-2-4 are common across the globe ! Generally housing is dependent on regions but for first time a global shortage and price increase has happened which does not auger well for overall stability of the market ! Interest rate increase is the biggest needle which may burst this bubble !

Or it may never happen…Risk reward is in favour of risk at this stage for potential buyers looking for own accommodation !

Graham · 14-05-2021 5:30pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Possible. However, from listening to the people from the world bank, EU politicians etc. speaking over the past few months about the multinationals based here for tax reasons and upcoming global tax reforms.

I don't expect many of them will be looking for a job.

I also don't buy into the end-of-the-world-for-ireland global tax reforms.

Here however right now we're already seeing retail desperate for staff and signs hospitality won't be far behind.

That could translate into pretty quick demand for rentals.

tobsey · 14-05-2021 5:34pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Possible. However, from listening to the people from the world bank, EU politicians etc. speaking over the past few months about the multinationals based here for tax reasons and upcoming global tax reforms.

They have being using (what I regard) as kind of patronising lines like we shouldn’t worry as we are an English speaking country, have close relations to the USA, have an educated workforce etc. etc. and that we will keep attracting them even if the global tax reforms go against us.

Given their previous animosity towards our tax system, it seemed a bit weird that they’re being all nice to us all of a sudden IMO

They've been talking about our corporate tax regime for decades. I wouldn't be banking on that changing to the point that they all up and leave.

MacronvFrugals · 14-05-2021 5:37pm

tobsey wrote: »

They've been talking about our corporate tax regime for decades. I wouldn't be banking on that changing to the point that they all up and leave.

The DOF lose sleep at night over this make no mistake about it!

Mad_maxx · 14-05-2021 6:18pm

PommieBast wrote: »

The Dublin 1 apartment I was sale agreed on last year but then pulled out of turned up on BidX and went for about 8% less than what I offered. Makes me glad I got out..

Bidx1.com usually involves problem properties so you expect lower than usual prices ,that sale tells us very little

PommieBast · 14-05-2021 6:24pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I think this may be the exception all prices seem to have gone up since this time last year

Trying to find out what happened to the other property I went sale agreed on. City-centre apartments is one segment I expected to fall whereas houses are up-up-up..

Hubertj · 14-05-2021 6:55pm

schmittel wrote: »

I think it could be enough!

Not sure if I agree with immigration predictions, but I agree with Props point on obsolete properties.

What makes you think 18k could be enough? Are you suggesting there is a lot of excess supply which is not being used?

richard D · 14-05-2021 7:34pm

Hi

I rang up enquiring about 2 different properties in the dublin 12 area, it was an older estate agent (55+ yr old plus -more genuine and honest), he told me that it was a frenzy out there and that I would be a lot better waiting for things to cool down. As the bidding on an older 3 bed house was about 10% above asking, he was worried that once the bank valued the property it couldnt justify that price. The house is old and needs a lot of work however in the pics 'He said that a picture can tell a 100 lies'

Supply is down about 40% from Y on-Y, when the economy opens back up more of this supply will come, in person viewing are beginning now, and once that starts people wont be bidding crazy over the phones in pictures. Also savings will start to deteriorate once the economy opens up.

In CSO it said Dublin prices have increased 2.3% from the prior year, what im seeing in the market is that properties are being listed for c 50k over prices in 2020 and bidding over 10% of asking, its madness that cant and wont last. I have honest estate agents telling me this.

<MOD SNIP> there really trying to create a frenzy and squeeze every last drop from the buyers. They know that a 3 bed was selling for 280k in 2019, now that same house is put on at 350k, thats a massive jump, the sad thing is that those two monopolize the market, so daft.ie is saturated with over listed prices from these two agents.

And buyers see price has gone up, as both of the agents have about 80% of the market, it sets the expectation, once this happens people keep buying and then the 350k is the new normal.

Its basic psychology.

M_Murphy57 · 14-05-2021 7:37pm

richard D wrote: »

Hi

I rang up enquiring about 2 different properties in the dublin 12 area, it was an older estate agent (55+ yr old plus -more genuine and honest), he told me that it was a frenzy out there and that I would be a lot better waiting for things to cool down. As the bidding on an older 3 bed house was about 10% above asking, he was worried that once the bank valued the property it couldnt justify that price. The house is old and needs a lot of work however in the pics 'He said that a picture can tell a 100 lies'

Supply is down about 40% from Y on-Y, when the economy opens back up more of this supply will come, in person viewing are beginning now, and once that starts people wont be bidding crazy over the phones in pictures. Also savings will start to deteriorate once the economy opens up.

In CSO it said Dublin prices have increased 2.3% from the prior year, what im seeing in the market is that properties are being listed for c 50k over prices in 2020 and bidding over 10% of asking, its madness that cant and wont last. I have honest estate agents telling me this.

<MOD SNIP> there really trying to create a frenzy and squeeze every last drop from the buyers. They know that a 3 bed was selling for 280k in 2019, now that same house is put on at 350k, thats a massive jump, the sad thing is that those two monopolize the market, so daft.ie is saturated with over listed prices from these two agents.

And buyers see price has gone up, as both of the agents have about 80% of the market, it sets the expectation, once this happens people keep buying and then the 350k is the new normal.

Its basic psychology.

<MOD SNIP> are the worst of the worst, absolute scoundrels.

Villa05 · 14-05-2021 7:40pm

Ref arrears cases

PIA case in court today
Woman to pay interest only up to 90 years of age. Balance to be recouped on passing of the lady and sale of house

Much cheaper option than selling to an investment fund and the state paying 800 or so in rent to said fund

Details on rte website, there was a similar case a few weeks back for a woman from Caherdavin limerick (High demand area) that was refused.

I wonder is location factored into these decisions in court

mcsean2163 · 14-05-2021 7:48pm

Graham wrote: »

+1

Our economy has also been pretty resilient so far compared to some EU countries. That could make Ireland an attractive destination for some.

I don't know, if I was a European looking at the cost of rent in Dublin, I might be a bit hesitant....

Come to Dublin to get PTSD as a contractor moderator for Facebook on minimum wage. Is that really that attractive?

Graham · 14-05-2021 7:54pm

Mod Note

Richard D, this is not the place for you to name & shame anyone. No more naming names please.

Graham · 14-05-2021 7:57pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I don't know, if I was a European looking at the cost of rent in Dublin, I might be a bit hesitant....

Come to Dublin to get PTSD as a contractor moderator for Facebook on minimum wage. Is that really that attractive?

Appeared to be attractive enough previously and now rents have dropped slightly.

yagan · 14-05-2021 8:17pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Ref arrears cases

PIA case in court today
Woman to pay interest only up to 90 years of age. Balance to be recouped on passing of the lady and sale of house

Much cheaper option than selling to an investment fund and the state paying 800 or so in rent to said fund

Details on rte website, there was a similar case a few weeks back for a woman from Caherdavin limerick (High demand area) that was refused.

I wonder is location factored into these decisions in court

Pro homeless crowd who post here won't be happy about that.

I agree, it's a far more sensible approach and much cheaper than adding another to the housing list.

mcsean2163 · 14-05-2021 8:22pm

Graham wrote: »

Appeared to be attractive enough previously and now rents have dropped slightly.

Dublin was an exciting place to be 18 months ago but maybe you're right.

Personally, I wouldn't be too surprised if a lot of people leave once they get a vaccination passport and in the cold light of day it might be less exciting to adventure to Dublin to work in an entry level social media job where over 50% of take home goes in rent. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Marius34 · 14-05-2021 8:23pm

richard D wrote: »

Hi

I rang up enquiring about 2 different properties in the dublin 12 area, it was an older estate agent (55+ yr old plus -more genuine and honest), he told me that it was a frenzy out there and that I would be a lot better waiting for things to cool down. As the bidding on an older 3 bed house was about 10% above asking, he was worried that once the bank valued the property it couldnt justify that price. The house is old and needs a lot of work however in the pics 'He said that a picture can tell a 100 lies'

Supply is down about 40% from Y on-Y, when the economy opens back up more of this supply will come, in person viewing are beginning now, and once that starts people wont be bidding crazy over the phones in pictures. Also savings will start to deteriorate once the economy opens up.

In CSO it said Dublin prices have increased 2.3% from the prior year, what im seeing in the market is that properties are being listed for c 50k over prices in 2020 and bidding over 10% of asking, its madness that cant and wont last. I have honest estate agents telling me this.

<MOD SNIP> there really trying to create a frenzy and squeeze every last drop from the buyers. They know that a 3 bed was selling for 280k in 2019, now that same house is put on at 350k, thats a massive jump, the sad thing is that those two monopolize the market, so daft.ie is saturated with over listed prices from these two agents.

And buyers see price has gone up, as both of the agents have about 80% of the market, it sets the expectation, once this happens people keep buying and then the 350k is the new normal.

Its basic psychology.

Demands will go up as well.
Prices went up because demands are higher than supply, simple economics.

Graham · 14-05-2021 8:23pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Dublin was an exciting place to be 18 months ago but maybe you're right.

Personally, I wouldn't be too surprised if a lot of people leave once they get a vaccination passport and in the cold light of day it might be less exciting to adventure to Dublin. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Some will leave, some will arrive. I don't see that changing any time soon.

Graham · 14-05-2021 9:17pm

Mod Note

HubertJ, schmittel thread banned.

Do not post in this thread again. Do not reply to this post.

Balluba · 14-05-2021 10:36pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Demands will go up as well.
Prices went up because demands are higher than supply, simple economics.

I believe auctioneers are also causing prices to rise. I put a cash offer on a house recently above the asking price. I put in the offer over the telephone and also by email and gave the proof of funds required. The auctioneer waited almost a fortnight to contact me to tell me that he was expecting a couple would put in a higher offer than mine the following week. Another week passed and I was contacted to say that a higher offer had been received.
I am left wondering just how long auctioneers are prepared to wait before they close a deal.

Graham · 14-05-2021 11:02pm

Balluba wrote: »

I am left wondering just how long auctioneers are prepared to wait before they close a deal.

I would have thought most sensible vendors would wait if there were an expectation of a higher offer.

Wouldn't you if you were selling?

PommieBast · 14-05-2021 11:13pm

Balluba wrote: »

The auctioneer waited almost a fortnight to contact me to tell me that he was expecting a couple would put in a higher offer than mine the following week. Another week passed and I was contacted to say that a higher offer had been received.

That sounds very suspect to me.

Balluba · 14-05-2021 11:14pm

Graham wrote: »

I would have thought most sensible vendors would wait if there were an expectation of a higher offer.

Wouldn't you if you were selling?

Well Graham I have decided to be sensible myself and I have walked away.

Graham · 14-05-2021 11:16pm

Balluba wrote: »

Well Graham I have decided to be sensible myself and I have walked away.

As is your choice, nothing at all wrong with that.

combat14 · 15-05-2021 9:43am

looks like only 27-35% of new house purchases are by first time buyers

the government and foreign vulture funds continue to gobble up the supply

time is long over due to redress this terrible market distortion and imbalance

First-time buyer blues as new homes unaffordable

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1217617/

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting