Lions Tour

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 1:34pm

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Moving to 2022 or abandonment seems the most likely.

Getting a tour up and running in another country would be a logistical nightmare. No country wants big crowds at this stage either.

I couldn’t see a Tour being organised but given the urgency and seriousness of the money situation within rugby, and within Southern Hemisphere rugby specifically, I could see the Tests being hosted elsewhere. A la the AIG stuff in Chicago for example. But the UK & Ireland would make most sense.

Sheep Shagger · 02-01-2021 1:50pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

I couldn’t see a Tour being organised but given the urgency and seriousness of the money situation within rugby, and within Southern Hemisphere rugby specifically, I could see the Tests being hosted elsewhere. A la the AIG stuff in Chicago for example. But the UK & Ireland would make most sense.

Comes down to if they want to play them behind closed doors or not. Gates receipts are important....can't see either the UK or IE authorities wanting a tour given current numbers.

Move it to Chicago etc but there won't be any crowds.

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 1:53pm

I think we can have crowds here in July/August

Sheep Shagger · 02-01-2021 2:11pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

I think we can have crowds here in July/August

No chance, need the general population vaccinated before that can happen and that won't be by then.

The Lost Sheep · 02-01-2021 2:26pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

It’s very hard to see the Tour going ahead.

So what are the options?

- The Tests go ahead in the UK & Ireland

- The Tour gets pushed back to 2022

- The Tests go ahead in another country (e.g. USA, Dubai, France, Australia, Argentina, New Zealand)

- The whole thing is abandoned

The revenue is badly needed, so I think there’s a decent chance that the Tests will be played in the UK & Ireland this summer. But the most likely outcome is a 2022 Lions Tour, subject to South Africa’s existing commitments for the Summer of 2022 being moveable.

Wouldnt see anything happen like tests going on up here or in another country. the revenue is needed and games in SA is what'll happen but a much reduced schedule

Deleted User wrote: »

For commercial reasons the tour will happen at some stage. Given how much WR tried to push the 2023 world cup to south africa there is clearly an ongoing need for finances within the game there and I'd imagine a Lions tour would be a huge part of that.

The finances are badly needed down there. Could help stop some of the exodus to europe.

Louis Friend wrote: »

I think we can have crowds here in July/August

Very limited numbers and highly restricted maybe but near full capacity? Not a chance

The Lost Sheep · 02-01-2021 2:28pm

Also BBC are getting people to pick their test sides and will put up results next week
https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/55402821

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 2:37pm

I can genuinely see the Tests happening here in July/August. There’s already a sell-out Test in Murrayfield vs Japan. A Test in Twickenham, one in Cardiff, and one in the Aviva. The revenue would be massive from the ticket sales and would be split with the South African union, which would bail them out. Most of the general population will be vaccinated by then and the economy will be fully open. It’s the answer.

Squidgy Black · 02-01-2021 2:43pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

I can genuinely see the Tests happening here in July/August. There’s already a sell-out Test in Murrayfield vs Japan. A Test in Twickenham, one in Cardiff, and one in the Aviva. The revenue would be massive from the ticket sales and would be split with the South African union, which would bail them out. Most of the general population will be vaccinated by then and the economy will be fully open. It’s the answer.

I think that's extremely optimistic, considering the government themselves aren't planning on doing a general rollout to the wider public of the vaccine until the second quarter of 2021 and it requires 2 doses.

OldRio · 02-01-2021 2:58pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

I can genuinely see the Tests happening here in July/August. There’s already a sell-out Test in Murrayfield vs Japan. A Test in Twickenham, one in Cardiff, and one in the Aviva. The revenue would be massive from the ticket sales and would be split with the South African union, which would bail them out. Most of the general population will be vaccinated by then and the economy will be fully open. It’s the answer.

Not a chance.

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 3:19pm

OldRio wrote: »

Not a chance.

Why not?

We’re talking about 6/7 months’ time.

The UK is aiming to have 30m people vaccinated by summer.

irishbucsfan · 02-01-2021 3:23pm

i could see tests being played here, but way too early to tell if there's any chance of crowds being there at all, and if there will be crowds it will be limited capacity for sure

The Lost Sheep · 02-01-2021 4:00pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

I can genuinely see the Tests happening here in July/August. There’s already a sell-out Test in Murrayfield vs Japan. A Test in Twickenham, one in Cardiff, and one in the Aviva. The revenue would be massive from the ticket sales and would be split with the South African union, which would bail them out. Most of the general population will be vaccinated by then and the economy will be fully open. It’s the answer.

How likely are we that we would get full capacity crowds next summer and how likely would the unions here split the revenue enough with South Africans to cover not having a lions tour and all that accompanies the matches for the country itself.
If games are possible with crowds then it'll be in South Africa or not happen at all.

irishbucsfan · 02-01-2021 4:11pm

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

How likely are we that we would get full capacity crowds next summer and how likely would the unions here split the revenue enough with South Africans to cover not having a lions tour and all that accompanies the matches for the country itself.
If games are possible with crowds then it'll be in South Africa or not happen at all.

There's zero chance there will be games possible with crowds in South Africa, they're miles behind where even we are. They may not even START vaccinating until after the date the tests are scheduled.

If there's a situation (albeit unlikely) where crowds could be permitted to tests in Europe then I could see them postponing the tour in favour of test matches in Europe.

OldRio · 02-01-2021 4:21pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

Why not?

We’re talking about 6/7 months’ time.

The UK is aiming to have 30m people vaccinated by summer.

What the UK government say and what they actually do are poles apart. Recent history bares testament to that.

Dravokivich · 02-01-2021 4:30pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

Why not?

We’re talking about 6/7 months’ time.

The UK is aiming to have 30m people vaccinated by summer.

And? It might be a nice milestone, it's far from the finish though.

PTH2009 · 02-01-2021 5:00pm

Is A tour of France been considered ?

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 5:07pm

I think the gate receipts for three sellout Tests in Dublin, London, and Cardiff could be enough to cover the South Africans and the Lions/Unions.

If it coincides with the reopening of things here, then they can probably charge what they want.

It’s important to bear in mind that in order for people to be allowed at matches they don’t need to be vaccinated; it’s just the vulnerable that need to be.

The Lost Sheep · 02-01-2021 5:11pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

Is A tour of France been considered?

People are suggesting what it could look like but no chance it would happen.

Louis Friend wrote: »

I think the gate receipts for three sellout Tests in Dublin, London, and Cardiff could be enough to cover the South Africans and the Lions/Unions.

If it coincides with the reopening of things here, then they can probably charge what they want.

It’s important to bear in mind that in order for people to be allowed at matches they don’t need to be vaccinated; it’s just the vulnerable that need to be.

3 sell out tests is still only 200'000 odd tickets even at €80 a piece wouldnt get near what south africans would get from everything in terms of a normal tour.

PTH2009 · 02-01-2021 5:15pm

If the three tests happen all over the British Isles then Dublin would prob miss out because of the Euro 20/21 games there in June

Burkie1203 · 02-01-2021 5:18pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

If the three tests happen all over the British Isles then Dublin would prob miss out because of the Euro 20/21 games there in June

Croker?

boetstark · 02-01-2021 5:25pm

[

No way any springbok fans want tests being played in ire or UK. We have our tickets and we want to play in SA only.
quote="Louis Friend;115778039"]I can genuinely see the Tests happening here in July/August. There’s already a sell-out Test in Murrayfield vs Japan. A Test in Twickenham, one in Cardiff, and one in the Aviva. The revenue would be massive from the ticket sales and would be split with the South African union, which would bail them out. Most of the general population will be vaccinated by then and the economy will be fully open. It’s the answer.[/quote]

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 5:31pm

Unfortunately what Sprinbok fans want won’t come into it because it’s South Africa and its response to Covid that’s the issue.

There wouldn’t be much price sensitivity for home Tests...210,000 seats x €200 is €42m (London, Cardiff & Dublin). With the TV and commercial revenue, there’d be more than enough to feed everyone.

It’d also suit the Lions to break the idea that the home union gets all of the ticket revenue. For years, the Lions have been of the view that the split is unfair.

The Lost Sheep · 02-01-2021 5:38pm

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Croker?

Summer. GAA games.....

Louis Friend wrote: »

Unfortunately what Sprinbok fans want won’t come into it because it’s South Africa and its response to Covid that’s the issue.

There wouldn’t be much price sensitivity for home Tests...210,000 seats x €200 is €42m (London, Cardiff & Dublin). With the TV and commercial revenue, there’d be more than enough to feed everyone.

It’d also suit the Lions to break the idea that the home union gets all of the ticket revenue. For years, the Lions have been of the view that the split is unfair.

No chance you would have all €200 tickets. Its not going to happen.

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 5:43pm

I think Croker means paying away too much in rent plus the Championship is on.

Lions Test tickets cost a fortune for Lions fans at the best of times.

For example, I paid £152 face value for a ticket to the Japan game.

They can charge what they like for 3 Tests because people will be gagging to go to things and because of the uniqueness of it.

I’m talking about an average of €200; don’t forget hospitality, premium level, boxes, etc.

deckie66 · 02-01-2021 5:43pm

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

Summer. GAA games.....

No chance you would have all €200 tickets. Its not going to happen.

GAA planning on inter county season being over by mid July

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 5:45pm

It’s pretty simple really. Rugby and South African rugby in particular needs this to go ahead. But it can’t go ahead in South Africa. So what’s the logical next step? It goes ahead somewhere else.

irishbucsfan · 02-01-2021 5:48pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

It’s pretty simple really. Rugby and South African rugby in particular needs this to go ahead. But it can’t go ahead in South Africa. So what’s the logical next step? It goes ahead somewhere else.

The Lions tour isn’t going to happen outside South Africa.

If it can’t happen this year, it’ll be postponed to next year

deckie66 · 02-01-2021 5:49pm

Micheal Martin said that his optimistic view is that there will be no spectators at sporting events until the autumn
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40193436.html

OldRio · 02-01-2021 5:49pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

It’s pretty simple really. Rugby and South African rugby in particular needs this to go ahead. But it can’t go ahead in South Africa. So what’s the logical next step? It goes ahead somewhere else.

Your personal opinion is not mine.

lawrencesummers · 02-01-2021 5:49pm

Presumably the uptake of bookings is terrible, while ticket sales are reported as good from the locals the lack of lucrative touring fans must a worry outside of having to refund lots of ticket sales...

2022 me thinks.

RugbyLover123 · 02-01-2021 5:50pm

I’d be shocked if it goes ahead somewhere else. South Africa will want it in some shape or form either this summer or next. 2 summers on the bounce of Lions takes away a bit of the unique appeal. It’ll be rescheduled for 2022.

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 5:51pm

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Presumably the uptake of bookings is terrible, while ticket sales are reported as good from the locals the lack of lucrative touring fans must a worry outside of having to refund lots of ticket sales...

2022 me thinks.

No, the sales have been very strong according to the Lions.

The two most obvious choices are to play it somewhere else or to move it to 2022.

The former is probably easier given the calendar issues and more desirable given the urgent need for cash.

PTH2009 · 02-01-2021 7:02pm

deckie66 wrote: »

Micheal Martin said that his optimistic view is that there will be no spectators at sporting events until the autumn
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40193436.html

Paddy last like always

We will be watching the Euros and other sporting events with stadiums full and us still with no spectators allowed

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 7:10pm

The UK have already said that the vulnerable being vaccinated is the gateway to letting fans back into matches.

They’re less concerned about healthy people passing Covid to one another.

thomond2006 · 02-01-2021 7:10pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

Paddy last like always

We will be watching the Euros and other sporting events with stadiums full and us still with no spectators allowed

"Paddy last".

What?

Boscoirl · 02-01-2021 7:17pm

I have booked a trip to SA but would have no interest if games were moved up here. Pushing to 2022 is the best option.

Paul Weller · 02-01-2021 7:19pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

Paddy last like always

We will be watching the Euros and other sporting events with stadiums full and us still with no spectators allowed

We most certainly will not

The Lost Sheep · 02-01-2021 7:20pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

Paddy last like always

We will be watching the Euros and other sporting events with stadiums full and us still with no spectators allowed

Thats not the case and are you ever not taking the glass half empty viewpoint?

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 7:47pm

Pushing to 2022 is the best option for fans alright but money’s gonna talk on this one. The game is in big trouble financially.

roadmaster · 02-01-2021 8:40pm

I apologise for going slightly off topic. The lions seams to be mainly about money these days, So could we see in the future it morph in to the European lions the same way the ryder Cup with players from other European nations. I would imagine in it would be a big money spiner

02-01-2021 9:16pm

I’m probably wrong about this, but I doubt the French have much interest in playing with British players.

The Lost Sheep · 02-01-2021 9:25pm

roadmaster wrote: »

I apologise for going slightly off topic. The lions seams to be mainly about money these days, So could we see in the future it morph in to the European lions the same way the ryder Cup with players from other European nations. I would imagine in it would be a big money spiner

No. It wont happen. Cant see french wanting to have it. Already is enough issues getting french based players released for the early parts of tour considering conclusion of top14 is ongoing when lions tour has started adding in french players on top isnt going to happen. It also reduces even more who the other sides play when the Lions is on. Its then just Italy and the 3 other rugby championship sides of the top tier.

lawrencesummers · 02-01-2021 11:08pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

No, the sales have been very strong according to the Lions.

The two most obvious choices are to play it somewhere else or to move it to 2022.

The former is probably easier given the calendar issues and more desirable given the urgent need for cash.

Playing it somewhere else would be a stupid decision. It removes the historical touring aspect that has been used to sell it for years, and it removes the desire of the home fans to attend.

If the lions organisers can’t be convinced that they won’t have to refund tickets and that fans can travel then they will postpone for a year. The fear of announcing no fans can attend games will mean their touring fans looking for refunds / cancellations and big losses in revenue, because if you can’t go to games then you cant have any social side to the tour.

Presumably the logistics involved, charters, hotels, transport etc etc are only willing to keep unguranteed booking on the books for so long before money has to be paid over, that’s the risk and 6 months or so could be the cutoff for such payments.

With governments obviously not willing to say now where things will be in the summer the Lions organisers are taking one hell of a risk by deciding to continue.

I think a delay of 12 months is inevitable.

lawrencesummers · 02-01-2021 11:09pm

roadmaster wrote: »

I apologise for going slightly off topic. The lions seams to be mainly about money these days, So could we see in the future it morph in to the European lions the same way the ryder Cup with players from other European nations. I would imagine in it would be a big money spiner

The lions has been about money for a long long long time now.

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 11:23pm

We’re in uncharted territory though.

The game is in big trouble financially.

Given the circumstances, I think that fans need to be open-minded.

And I’m speaking as someone who’s booked and paid to go.

Sheep Shagger · 02-01-2021 11:35pm

Louis Friend wrote: »

We’re in uncharted territory though.

The game is in big trouble financially.

Given the circumstances, I think that fans need to be open-minded.

And I’m speaking as someone who’s booked and paid to go.

Fans being open minded? Since when did fans, especially travelling ones ever have a say. It will be the authorities who decide.

Not sure how long you've been travelling abroad to games but travelling supporters don't have any say in how things work.

You won't be travelling and hopefully whoever you booked with offered a good 'covid guarantee' so you are not financially impacted.

thomond2006 · 02-01-2021 11:38pm

A year's delay is the cleanest outcome. I'm not sure playing this year without fans would be good enough financially. Plus five weeks on the other side of the world with nothing to do during the week except train would be a pretty horrific experience for the Lions players. You'd see loads of players pull out of going IMO.

Clareman · 02-01-2021 11:41pm

Lions tour to South Africa is nearly top of my bucket list but if you were to give me free travel and tickets for next year, no thanks I'll pass, for 2022, if Mrs. Clareman was to allow it I'd gladly playing 10 grand for a few games.

Louis Friend · 02-01-2021 11:42pm

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Fans being open minded? Since when did fans, especially travelling ones ever have a say. It will be the authorities who decide.

Not sure how long you've been travelling abroad to games but travelling supporters don't have any say in how things work.

You won't be travelling and hopefully whoever you booked with offered a good 'covid guarantee' so you are not financially impacted.

This will be my 5th Lions Tour and I’ve been at 7 World Cups, so I’d consider myself pretty experienced. Seven, Jesus, I had to add them up!

I book it all myself. The hotels are fully cancellable. The tickets are from the South African Union via a pal of mine in South Africa so refundable if it doesn’t go ahead. And the flight can be rebooked so I’ll just use it to go somewhere else.

Sheep Shagger · 02-01-2021 11:43pm

Clareman wrote: »

Lions tour to South Africa is nearly top of my bucket list but if you were to give me free travel and tickets for next year, no thanks I'll pass, for 2022, if Mrs. Clareman was to allow it I'd gladly playing 10 grand for a few games.

Did it in 2009, (have done Aus and NZ too), was fun but the whole security thing took the shine off it, but that's for another thread.

I did 2009 DIY and you can do it a LOT cheaper than the tour operator even with match tickets, you just need to be organised/creative.

Lions Tour

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