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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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Interesting set up being shown by the models for this weekend with a cut off Low finding its way into the bay of Biscay by Thurs and currently the models show it to begin to move N Friday into Saturday sending bands of rain up over the country. Saturday ECM and ICON showing thunderstorm potential as the upper low and it's associated cool uppers move in over Ireland and possibly bands of rain with a high Theta E reading. This kind of set up often produces thunderstorms for Ireland. No doubt long way off but good to watch to see what unfolds. Bit of interest anyway
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ECM showing some preliminary rather tasty convective charts over the weekend for Thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday and possibly overnight Sat as well . Could see some locally heavy rain and hail possible also.
Some high Theta E readings, temperatures in to the low 20's on Sat for many, up to around 20C on Sunday. Dp 12 or 13C on Sat and some crazy high DP showing on Sunday in the W and NW of 16C, Sticky !
Probably seeing good low LLS and decent DLS at times
Some high Vorticity readings, might even see funnels .
Some notable convergence zones would be possible as a Low center moves close to us or over us but exact position and timing will know sooner to the weekend.
So will be interesting to see what happens, long way off of course and will take a while yet to be able to pinpoint areas with most chance of Thunderstorms.
Met Eireann : Saturday and Sunday will both bring sunny spells and widespread heavy showers, some of hail and thunder.
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The GFS has some good CAPE of around 1200 J/kg for Shannon Airport on Saturday afternoon, similar for Kerry Airport and around 900 for Cork and Knock. Nothing for Dublin, given the easterly flow.
It is only the GFS but it does have a cold surface bias so in reality CAPE could turn out to be higher with dewpoints in the mid-teens.
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