Fodder Crisis

Donald Trump wrote: »

And, as you know, with these big margins of profits fellas are making rearing beef, shure can't they afford to make a few spare months of silage, then store it for the winter, and then dump it when it's not used and goes off a few years later?


It's not as if it's expensive to make either is it?

How does it go off. Use the year old stuff first. Btw ive seen 7 year old bales being all eaten by weanlings also so its not as if they go rotten quickly

Odelay wrote: »

Few business would have a 6 month supply stored. Very few are at the whim of nature.

I do.

I always keep 6mts forage in stock and neighbors who’ve no irrigation always keep a years supply in stock.

The Gov bailed out farmers here in ‘76 and never again, even in ‘16, which was as bad, nobody ran short...

We feed grass, maize, sorghum, clover, lucerne, wheat, peas and vetch silages, so we’re not dependent on one single crop, ie grass.
I honestly would have lots more exposure to drought in cereals etc without having to worry about stock being hungry.
Keep enough in reserve, simples.

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

I do.

I always keep 6mts forage in stock and neighbors who’ve no irrigation always keep a years supply in stock.

The Gov bailed out farmers here in ‘76 and never again, even in ‘16, which was as bad, nobody ran short...

We feed grass, maize, sorghum, clover, lucerne, wheat, peas and vetch silages, so we’re not dependent on one single crop, ie grass.
I honestly would have lots more exposure to drought in cereals etc without having to worry about stock being hungry.
Keep enough in reserve, simples.

Where are you located?


Your neighbours have enough forage saved and stored to feed all their stock for the next 12 months in case nothing grew this year...and you currently have 6 months?

Donald Trump wrote: »

Sure it's not comparable then.

If someone told you he was in the Golden Vale you'd have the same response. You've your mind made up that having a 6 month + buffer of extra feed is not doable in Ireland.

There's lads in Mayo with 6 months + of extra feed in their yard at the moment but sure,that's probably not comparable either. Some people might be a bit better at managing than others,a better off farm income that can pay for it,etc. But it can be done in any part of Ireland.

BENDYBINN wrote: »

In any other business a company would always have an adequate reserve of a scarce raw material.................farmers on the other hand........as sure it’ll be grand.

You ever here of just in time supply chain in business.

If business kept reserves as gererous like farmers do they'd be collapsing left and right.

With cash flow and cost issues.

The equivalent of 8 hours in a 4 to 6 month winter was imported in the fodder crisis.

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

My BIL has a years supply of silage in the yard at the start of every grazing season. On heavy ground, mostly peat(and that would be the good land), he has to have that level of silage in case of years like last year. He sells surplus stock until he builds up a full 12 months again.

Fair play to lads on heavy ground, it's a trial most years, but they still make a good living out of it.

I'd say he's an outlier. Can you put it into numbers for us? Bale numbers or pit size? If he only has a small amount like 1 or 2 hundred bales then maybe it's feasible.



He could have sold a heap of it January 12 months ago and made a fortune.



Also when you say 12 months supply, you mean enough to get him through the following year rather than a 12-months reserve (which would mean enough to last for 12 months if the grass never grew at all for the year which is what the fella in France alluded to)

Donald Trump wrote: »

I'd say he's an outlier. Can you put it into numbers for us? Bale numbers or pit size? If he only has a small amount like 1 or 2 hundred bales then maybe it's feasible.



He could have sold a heap of it January 12 months ago and made a fortune.



Also when you say 12 months supply, you mean enough to get him through the following year rather than a 12-months reserve (which would mean enough to last for 12 months if the grass never grew at all for the year which is what the fella in France alluded to)

Indeed.

Nice handle. Really suits.

Timmaay wrote: »

Just working out here, assuming each kgdm of silage is worth 12.5c, for 100cow herd that's 68grand worth of a silage inventory!

Well, I suppose each farm is different, but if fodder shortages are going to be a once or twice in 10 / 15 year type of thing, then fodder is GOING to have to be built up to cover that... Yes you can buy in ration to buffer, but if you have 100 milking cows, you'll need a minimum fodder level for 100 cows for your farms worst case scenario...

Donald Trump wrote: »

I'd say he's an outlier. Can you put it into numbers for us? Bale numbers or pit size? If he only has a small amount like 1 or 2 hundred bales then maybe it's feasible.



He could have sold a heap of it January 12 months ago and made a fortune.



Also when you say 12 months supply, you mean enough to get him through the following year rather than a 12-months reserve (which would mean enough to last for 12 months if the grass never grew at all for the year which is what the fella in France alluded to)

What Buford is saying like most people here saying is you have to match your land and your feed requirements. When you are on land of mixed quality it’s totally different to top class land, here we have had frost at night for the last ten days and very little growth. As regards having reserves of feed stored , that is called planning for the rainy day. If you don’t plan what are you going to do when you run out of feed.
This year we have fed bales from 2014 to 2018 and glad to have them after a bad drought in this area.

While it would be difficult to keep an extra 100% of our silage requirements we probably do need a buffer stock to future proof our systems
Easier done for some than others.

Timmaay wrote: »

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/video-all-systems-go-with-silage-2019-at-dublin-airport/

Oh thank god, just in time the lads are mowing the airport to avert another fodder crisis!

I woundering who gets the silage?
I say the DAA pay the contractors to cut it and thus it must be free to a good home!
There be little N in it anyway.

roosterman71 wrote: »

It annoys me much more than it should that yer man with the green trailer in the video is being filled from the wrong bloody side

Common enough to do on the high side to pound in,

grassroot1 wrote: »

While it would be difficult to keep an extra 100% of our silage requirements we probably do need a buffer stock to future proof our systems
Easier done for some than others.

A lot cheaper ways to ensure a fooder reserve then cutting huge averages of land for silage in multiple cuts( have the t-shirt got) instead of going for 3rd and 4 th cuts here this year have a 30 ton bin going in with a auger system for filling diet feeder, works out cheaper then storing massive amounts of silage and your not tying up huge cash reserves either, will be buying in beet as well to mix through tmr, land rental values make it unviable to rent half the parish and cut 100’s of acreas of silage year in year out, and with grain markets on the floor its even worse value for money

jaymla627 wrote: »

A lot cheaper ways to ensure a fooder reserve then cutting huge averages of land for silage in multiple cuts( have the t-shirt got) instead of going for 3rd and 4 th cuts here this year have a 30 ton bin going in with a auger system for filling diet feeder, works out cheaper then storing massive amounts of silage and your not tying up huge cash reserves either, will be buying in beet as well to mix through tmr, land rental values make it unviable to rent half the parish and cut 100’s of acreas of silage year in year out, and with grain markets on the floor its even worse value for money

Native Irish grains?
Or gmo grains imported from the Americas?

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

1 year = 365 days.
1 generation = 25 years.

2012/2013 = fodder crisis!
2018 = fodder crisis!
By my reckoning that’s two fodder crises in 5 years?

Maybe I’m just thick, but I distinctly remember sending thousands of tons of fodder to Ireland in ‘13 and again in ‘18??

Wtf came up with once in 50 years?

Maybe I’m just too far away to listen,and believe, the bullsh1t being spouted by the crises deniers??

never see a 100/1 shot horse win?
'once in a generation' is a way of saying the odds of it happening so using your figures would be 25/1

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

1 year = 365 days.
1 generation = 25 years.

2012/2013 = fodder crisis!
2018 = fodder crisis!
By my reckoning that’s two fodder crises in 5 years?

Maybe I’m just thick, but I distinctly remember sending thousands of tons of fodder to Ireland in ‘13 and again in ‘18??

Wtf came up with once in 50 years?

Maybe I’m just too far away to listen,and believe, the bullsh1t being spouted by the crises deniers??

They were caused by two different events, and effected different parts of the country. In 13 lads in the east got in fine as the wet summer of 12 didn't effect them as much as those of us in wet ground or in the west whereas last year the drought effected them more and was compounded by snow and other events prior to that. I got caught in 13 by a combination of being restricted with tb and wet ground was a disaster from june 12 on. Sold 100 bales last spring and and have a pit of maize left over this spring. Once the lesson is taken on board hopefully there will be less exposure. Double wrapped every bale after 13 and always erred on the side of caution. Have 3 meal bins up as well to stretch things earlier if needed

Tim & Moo.
There’s loads of different reasons why individuals got into bother in ‘13 and ‘18.
Because ye both know what needs to be done ye won’t get into bother again.

What gets on my wick are the deniers.
There’s posters on here that actually believe that the crises never happened! Ffs.

Plenty posters on here we’re sending me private messages trying to source fodder. I even organized to send back 7 diet feeders back last year!
Diet feeders FFS!!??

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

By my (reality) figures it’d be 5/2 or 2.5/1

Each year that passes without a fodder crisis I’d strongly advise you to substantially tighten those odds...
JP or Shark would skin you on those odds, that’s if you were willing to stand over them.

If you want to talk percentages, I'll give you the percentages. Assuming that each year is independent (which is probably not really statistically true as you will likely see clustering of crises like that which would up the probabilities of more than one crisis in the below). Numbers are rounded to one decimal.

Now suppose that the probability that any given year there is a one-in-twentyfive chance you will have a crisis. That means that you will expect 1 crisis every 25 years on average.

Under those assumptions, then in any 25 year period:
There is a 36% chance you will have 0
37.5% chance you will see 1
26.4% chance you will see two or more.

In any given 10 year period that changes to
0: 66.5%
1: 27.7%
2+: 5.8%


In a 7 year period: (2012 + 2013 + 2014 + 2015 + 2016 + 2017 + 2018)
0: 75.1%
1: 21.9%
2+: 2.9%


In any given 15 year period then there is still about a 12% chance that you would see 2 or more. Assuming a 1/25 chance of seeing one in any given year.

We got through here but only because of meal and straw.
We've dropped our sr this year to 2.2 from 2.7 last year and cant see us going past 2.4 in the near future unless we get more land on the MP.
weve sowed 10 acres of maize with the contractor again even though we dont really need it in the hope of building a reserve. Itll be cheaper than having to go feeding a heap of meal if for some reason we cabt make enough silage sone year..

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/bank-6-000-of-silage-to-save-10-000-teagasc-457493

Donald Trump wrote: »

What's the yield like for Maize etc?

At what stage would you go with Maize rather than renting land for silage? What will you get off 10 acres of grass compared to X acres of silage?

What do you do with it? Just precision chop and into the pit? Or with one of those special harvesters?

I see a lot of people mentioning wholecrop now. I remember the oul' fella putting a barley (and maybe pea) mix in with reseeding grass about 20 years ago and then baling and wrapping it. Seemed like good feeding....but the problem was that rats riddles the bales in the heap!

16tons/ha dry is about as good a yeild as you could expect on average (which is just over 20tons/ac wet at 30dm). 53e/ton wet is the typical contractor rate this year into your pit, so let's call that 16c/kgdm. The thing you gotta be really careful about here is the cutting date of the crop, it favours the tillage lad to cut early when it's greener and therefore wetter, and weights heavier, however the dm of the crop will be lower, so you the buyer will lose out. The other thing to be careful is that he doesnt put in a maize crop that is heavy in bulk/steam, but low in quality (starch). The only way to avoid this is get it tested when it arrives in your pit and have a pre arranged agreement on the price based on starch/dm.

Anyways looking at grass silage, let's call it 100e rent, 80e fert/spray etc, and 120e harvesting (more if its a long draw and several trailers), that's 300e/ac, let's call it a good crop and 6tonDM/ha (would want to be growing 10weeks), that works out at 12.5c/kgdm, however it's gonna be average quality, maybe 65dmd, I'm not sure about ufls but the maize at 16c would probably come in similar value (cows on maize, even average maize will always always do better than on grass silage).

Your alternative with the grass silage is go for say a 2cut system, the quality will be a hell of alot higher (high 70s dmd), but you have double the harvest costs.

That's all talking about buying in, for growing it yourself, the massive difference is with maize you sow it in April, ignore it until its harvested in Oct. If you wanna do the same thing with grass silage you would be looking at a 2cut system, with 2harvests and alot more work (however you can get grazing on the grass also), let's call it 6tdm/ha 1st cut and 4tdm/ha 2nd cut, so much better yeild out of the maize for the same ground. Cost wise home grown maize can work out as cheap as 10c/kgdm (without a land charge), whereas any sort of 2cut system with them above yeilds will be more like 13c/kgdm (again without the land charge).

However we haven't even mentioned location yet, maize will always win by a long margin in a nice dry field in the south east where we rarely even bother putting out fert for say an August 2nd cut of grass for fear of a drought, but totally different story out west in a poor field, where maize could be a very expensive mistake and total failure.

If, by any chance, there’s a fodder crisis for a few minutes, I decided to make a few of these things...drop a pm, as usual.