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01-09-2020, 13:38   #76
Gaoth Laidir
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Arctic extent (cyan) is currently close to 2019, 2017, 2016, etc., but well above that of the record 2012. The next two weeks should see the minimum achieved, and barring any major fluctuation between now and then it's currently looking like it will similar to or slightly below 2019.

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09-09-2020, 18:35   #77
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A few days from the annual minimum extent and this year is the lowest since the 2012 low benchmark. Unlikely to go lower than that record.

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09-09-2020, 22:04   #78
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Interesting that it got this low after the bumper winter with much higher than recent years of ice cover.
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10-09-2020, 08:13   #79
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After a delayed start the arctic temperatures have projected downwards rapidly in recent days - this bodes well for a sooner start to ice growth once more.

Today's ice figures are 3.59m Km2 which is the same extent as yesterday. [https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent]

Will we see an uptick in figures tomorrow? Or is there some further loss to be had?
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18-09-2020, 11:34   #80
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Arctic sea ice extent minimum reached 3.55 million km2 on September 13th and has since commenced it's usual winter re-growth.

Yesterday, arctic sea ice gained a massive 105,000 km2 which is quite notable for a gain this size so soon after the minimum extent date. An average gain on this date would be roughly only 2,000 km2.
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18-09-2020, 21:38   #81
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Here is the updated minima dataset including the 2020 value. The past decade has been relatively consistent with a linear trend of about -18,000 km² per annum.





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File Type: png Sea ice minima 2011-2020.png (43.1 KB, 819 views)
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22-09-2020, 10:54   #82
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https://twitter.com/MetOffice_Sci/st...981179395?s=19
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25-10-2020, 14:45   #83
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Maybe deserves its own thread, pretty alarming really - Arctic Sea Ice Isn't Freezing In October for the First Time on Record

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When autumn falls on the Laptev Sea, which borders the northwest coast of Siberia, sea ice typically starts to form in vast quantities that flow into the Arctic Ocean over the winter.

But this year, for the first time on record, the Laptev Sea’s seasonal ice pack has not started to freeze by late October, reports The Guardian. The delayed production of sea ice in such a critical region is yet another dire omen of the climate crisis, and its disproportionate disruption of the Arctic.
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25-10-2020, 17:41   #84
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Maybe deserves its own thread, pretty alarming really - Arctic Sea Ice Isn't Freezing In October for the First Time on Record
Alarming in itself but the headline is incredibly misleading. 'Arctic Sea Ice' is freezing, just not in that one particular spot.. yet.

And isn't this just a bit weird:

"Scientists think we will witness the first ice-free summer in the Arctic—an event that has not happened for tens of thousands of years—within the next few decades"

considering that scientists have been telling us for the past 20 + years that the summer Arctic ice would be a relic of the past before 2020? Goal posts being moved once again by the magnitude of decades, but hey, we should 'listen to the scientists', because as we all should have learned by now, no truth is permitted to exist outside of the scientific realm.
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25-10-2020, 18:47   #85
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Originally Posted by Oneiric 3 View Post
Alarming in itself but the headline is incredibly misleading. 'Arctic Sea Ice' is freezing, just not in that one particular spot.. yet.

And isn't this just a bit weird:

"Scientists think we will witness the first ice-free summer in the Arctic—an event that has not happened for tens of thousands of years—within the next few decades"

considering that scientists have been telling us for the past 20 + years that the summer Arctic ice would be a relic of the past before 2020? Goal posts being moved once again by the magnitude of decades, but hey, we should 'listen to the scientists', because as we all should have learned by now, no truth is permitted to exist outside of the scientific realm.
Decades, given we’re talking about some records going back thousands of years, is hardly a long time to move the goal posts.
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25-10-2020, 20:45   #86
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Decades, given we’re talking about some records going back thousands of years, is hardly a long time to move the goal posts.
When precise predictions are made by climate scientists which don’t materialise, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in their expertise.
Wasn’t the Arctic supposed to be ice-free in summer by 2013.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
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25-10-2020, 23:10   #87
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When precise predictions are made by climate scientists which don’t materialise, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in their expertise.
Wasn’t the Arctic supposed to be ice-free in summer by 2013.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Read the article FFS it gave a range of dates up to 2100
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25-10-2020, 23:25   #88
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Read the article FFS it gave a range of dates up to 2100
The article refers to other teams which produced different projections. But the article goes on to say:
“These other teams have variously produced dates for an open summer ocean that, broadly speaking, go out from about 2040 to 2100.
But the Monterey researcher, (Maslowski), believes these models have seriously underestimated some key melting processes. In particular, Professor Maslowski is adamant that models need to incorporate more realistic representations of the way warm water is moving into the Arctic basin from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.“

As you said yourself “Read the article FFS”.
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Yesterday, 01:51   #89
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We look likely to see rapid advance over the next few days as the polar vortex fires up, already temperatures have taken a tumble across the Beaufort sea, Laptev and the East Siberian sea aiding progress.

The deepening vortex should trap the colder air firmly over the Arctic and will lead to more cold pooling there.

The stratospheric temperature profile also suggests no changes to a fired up vortex for a while to come (other than it deepening further)




Quite confident of big sea ice advances over the coming week.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; Yesterday at 02:08.
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Yesterday, 15:57   #90
Gaoth Laidir
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Alarming in itself but the headline is incredibly misleading. 'Arctic Sea Ice' is freezing, just not in that one particular spot.. yet.
Very misleading indeed, but typical of the selective commentary that the youth of today are being exposed to by sites such as this one.

A more comprehensive (and honest) summary from the NSIDC shows a very different reality.

Quote:
Following the sea ice extent minimum on September 15, 2020, expansion of the ice edge has been most notable in the northern Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The ice edge along the Laptev Sea continued to retreat farther. Antarctic sea ice has climbed to its highest extent since 2014; it may have reached its maximum on September 28, but it is too soon to say for sure.

...

Following the minimum seasonal extent, which occurred on September 15, ice growth quickly began along in the northern Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas (Figure 1). Expansion of the ice edge was also notable within the East Greenland Sea and within Canadian Arctic Archipelago. By contrast, the ice edge in the Kara and Barents Seas remained relatively stable until the end of the month when it started to expand, and within the Laptev Sea the ice edge retreated slightly. The Northern Sea Route remained open at the end of September whereas the Northwest Passage southerly route (Amundsen’s route) is now blocked by ice. Ten days after the minimum extent was reached, the total extent climbed above 4 million square kilometers (1.54 million square miles) and by the end of the month the ice extent was tracking at 4.25 million square kilometers (1.64 million square miles), still second lowest in terms of daily extent.
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And isn't this just a bit weird:

"Scientists think we will witness the first ice-free summer in the Arctic—an event that has not happened for tens of thousands of years—within the next few decades"

considering that scientists have been telling us for the past 20 + years that the summer Arctic ice would be a relic of the past before 2020? Goal posts being moved once again by the magnitude of decades, but hey, we should 'listen to the scientists', because as we all should have learned by now, no truth is permitted to exist outside of the scientific realm.
Yes, this headline pops up about as often as the Exacta winter headlines do every year. Data, of course, show a different story.

Greenland is another one where deliberate misinformation is rampant and apparently it's a runaway disaster. If these kids learned how to do their own research they may be surprised to find a different reality. Again, our friend the AMO seems to be the primary driver, with a seemingly negative correlation between changing AMO and Greenland mass balance. Nowhere have I seen this mentioned, however.





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File Type: png Greenland discharge 1986-2019.PNG (153.7 KB, 266 views)
File Type: png Greenland melt area 2010-19.png (13.3 KB, 263 views)
File Type: png Greenland melt area change 2019.PNG (105.4 KB, 254 views)

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; Yesterday at 16:02.
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