Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

squarecircles · 06-12-2016 5:46pm

Today i noticed the peculiarity of the movement of air,namely wind. It was also strange to see the leaves still blowing down, on a day that felt more like mid October. The two month break from this typical Irish winter weather only highlights stronger how unpleasant it really is. The crystal clear skies and the piercing sun let in the optimum amount of light and even tricked you into thinking the day was longer with the after glow on the horizon after sunset.The lack of light today is most noticeable.

All in all the last two months reminded me of Decembers in Spain,haze on the horizon,lots of sunlight,erie dead calm days that make it feel warmer than it is, and everything preserved in a dry,static sealed vacum.

Along with a pleasant feeling in body and mind.

Gonzo · 06-12-2016 5:56pm

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Escaped the rain here in north meath today, bit of misty auld stuff for an hour, barely wet the ground, getting a bit breezy at the minute and feels colder then i expected

The past 2 days have felt much colder than the proper cold we had over the past 2 weeks.

Harry Palmr · 06-12-2016 6:33pm

Rain held off in Waterford until about 4.30, now its a very soft day - the sort of drizzle that soaks you in the wind.

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2016 8:38pm

Very mild here near Tralee with the highest temp so far today now at 14.4C , quite windy earlier and has eased a bit now coming from the South.Damp as well here but amounts small, some big showers in Tralee Town earlier.

pqdvdplayer · 06-12-2016 9:04pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The past 2 days have felt much colder than the proper cold we had over the past 2 weeks.

Today has been the mildest day in about a month in the west

h7nlrp2v0g5u48 · 06-12-2016 9:41pm

Around 15c tomorrow back to the xmas t shirt I think.

Mars Bar · 06-12-2016 10:29pm

Such a difference from yesterday in temperature!

Gonzo · 06-12-2016 10:42pm

finally now it feels much milder, you could almost wear a t-shirt outside it's that mild. Feels like winter 2015/2016 all over again!.

ninebeanrows · 06-12-2016 11:27pm

I see Met E are going for temperatures to reach 16C in Dublin tomorrow:p... could even exceed??

Mostly cloudy and breezy tomorrow with occasional light rain or drizzle. A few brighter spells cannot be ruled out though. Exceptionally mild with maximum temperatures of 16 degrees. Fresh or strong south-westerly breezes.

Meteorite58 · 07-12-2016 12:56am

Weathercheck wrote: »

I see Met E are going for temperatures to reach 16C in Dublin tomorrow:p... could even exceed??

I'd believe it, just got up to 14.7C here near Tralee !

mickmackey1 · 07-12-2016 3:29am

15C at 2am - Finner, Donegal

Eamondomc · 07-12-2016 8:14am

14 degrees here in Longford and heavy shower at present. Damn and blast it I feel like going back to bed.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 07-12-2016 10:17am

Malin head reading 15 degrees at 8am. All other stations reading no less than 12.

Elmer Blooker · 07-12-2016 10:35am

14.5c
I suppose there's a reason why the Arctic ice is disappearing.
(surely we'll never see a December as mild as 2015 again! - we only had to wait ONE year!)

gugsy · 07-12-2016 10:42am

s+

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

14.5c
I suppose there's a reason why the Arctic ice is disappearing.
(surely we'll never see a December as mild as 2015 again! - we only had to wait ONE year!)

Its only the start of the month Elmer there are hints that the second half of the month is to be cooler.--

Elmer Blooker · 07-12-2016 11:24am

gugsy wrote: »

s+

Its only the start of the month Elmer there are hints that the second half of the month is to be cooler.--

Hope so! Here's a quote I saw on netweather this morning which made me smile:

These so called professionals make me laugh( despair). Do they not know that when we get high pressure this time of the year,nine times out of ten,it migrates into central Europe and sits there for weeks!

14.9c now.

ronnie3585 · 07-12-2016 2:53pm

15 degrees in Galway city, balmy!!

Gonzo · 07-12-2016 3:00pm

gugsy wrote: »

s+

Its only the start of the month Elmer there are hints that the second half of the month is to be cooler.--

doesn't look great tbh, maybe a brief northerly toppler Christmas week, but they deliver SFA to most of us. Nothing remotely easterly on the horizon.

ArKl0w · 07-12-2016 4:58pm

Gonzo wrote: »

doesn't look great tbh, maybe a brief northerly toppler Christmas week, but they deliver SFA to most of us. Nothing remotely easterly on the horizon.

MT's winter forecast this year posted on October 7th is sadly looking very very wrong:(

" something a little similar to 2010-2011 which started out very cold and snowy, then turned much milder. This winter, I am predicting rather cold weather to start, from late November through much of December, and the opportunity for some significant snowfalls. It probably won't be as intense as the cold or snow of late 2010, let's say on the order of two degrees below average and 5-15 cm snowfalls possible in the period (recall that Dec 2010 produced some 30-40 cm falls in Leinster). As usual, this snowfall would be more likely in the eastern half of the country and in some parts of the northwest. "

nagdefy · 07-12-2016 5:01pm

Coldies don't despair

Here are some mild Decembers from Kilkenny met records, back to 1959, that were followed by colder conditions in January or February or both.

1. December 1959 (5.5C), January 1960 (4.2C), February 1960 (3.6C)

2. December 1977 (7.4C), January 1978 (3.8C), February 1978 (3.9C)

3. December 1984 (5.7C), January 1985 (1.7C) and decent snowfall to much of country inc east coast mid month.

4. December 1985 (6.3C), January 1986 (4.4C), February 1986 (1.6C) the coldest month since January 1963 and not surpassed in low temperature average until December 2010. After a December almost 1,5C above normal.

5. December 2000 (5.9C), January 2001 (3.6C) the coldest January since the mid 1980s in many parts. Also the end of February and first week of March saw snow in many parts and temperatures as low as -8C this occurred during the Foot and Mouth outbreak.

nagdefy · 07-12-2016 5:02pm

ArKl0w wrote: »

MT's winter forecast this year posted on October 7th is sadly looking very very wrong:(

" something a little similar to 2010-2011 which started out very cold and snowy, then turned much milder. This winter, I am predicting rather cold weather to start, from late November through much of December, and the opportunity for some significant snowfalls. It probably won't be as intense as the cold or snow of late 2010, let's say on the order of two degrees below average and 5-15 cm snowfalls possible in the period (recall that Dec 2010 produced some 30-40 cm falls in Leinster). As usual, this snowfall would be more likely in the eastern half of the country and in some parts of the northwest. "

He mentioned milder weather in January and February so hopefully he has it back to front

squarecircles · 07-12-2016 5:39pm

Gonzo wrote: »

doesn't look great tbh, maybe a brief northerly toppler Christmas week, but they deliver SFA to most of us. Nothing remotely easterly on the horizon.

whats with that consistent weird kind of tone you have that infers cold wintry weather west of the shannon implies its useless, if i witness snow and cold weather why is that less significant and more meaningless than somebody else in the east of the country.I just dont get your 'most of us' concentric outlook on things.Strange.

vicwatson · 07-12-2016 5:44pm

ArKl0w wrote: »

MT's winter forecast this year posted on October 7th is sadly looking very very wrong:(

Ya never know, it was only a "forecast" after all.

MJohnston · 07-12-2016 5:44pm

squarecircles wrote: »

whats with that consistent weird kind of tone you have that infers cold wintry weather west of the shannon implies its useless, if i witness snow and cold weather why is that less significant and more meaningless than somebody else in the east of the country.I just dont get your 'most of us' concentric outlook on things.Strange.

In fairness to them, population distribution would indicate that 'most of us' are on the east side of the country.

Oscar Bravo · 07-12-2016 5:56pm

17 degrees in Wales today, warmest December day since 1972

Rebelbrowser · 07-12-2016 6:06pm

There's no evidence at all that this mild and / or wet weather will last for the rest of the month. On the contrary most indications are for HP dominated weather by Christmas week. Keep the faith coldies....

To back this up (by way of example only) the latest GFS shows below chart for 20 December (I know its far in FI but its the best guidance we have got right now...). Nothing mild about this.

gfs-1-312.png?12?12

JCX BXC · 07-12-2016 6:16pm

MJohnston wrote: »

In fairness to them, population distribution would indicate that 'most of us' are on the east side of the country.

I always got that too, even though most of the population is on the east doesn't mean only the weather on the east matters!

ArKl0w · 07-12-2016 6:42pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

There's no evidence at all that this mild and / or wet weather will last for the rest of the month. On the contrary most indications are for HP dominated weather by Christmas week. Keep the faith coldies....

To back this up (by way of example only) the latest GFS shows below chart for 20 December (I know its far in FI but its the best guidance we have got right now...). Nothing mild about this.

To many of us high pressure dominated inversion cold aka faux cold which has no hope of snow,while nice to be out and about in,is boring
Inversion high pressure cold stifles precipitation and is lifted away in the blink of an eye by incoming precipitation

Boring,Boring,Boring

The thing that crashes this forum with people is the possibility of a true cold that wafts in from places unaffected by the Atlantic mixing i.e. The east / northeast/sometimes the north and the chance of snow
I say possibility because it often doesn't pan out but there's excitement in 'nearly there's'
An aul high pressure that eventually sinks into Europe which eventually ends up ensuring westerlies is no good

As blocking goes,I refer to those blocking highs as c0ck blocks because they bloody well are a hindrance not a help

MJohnston · 07-12-2016 6:43pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I always got that too, even though most of the population is on the east doesn't mean only the weather on the east matters!

I don't think anyone has ever said that though? I mean, I haven't even seen any comment even vaguely suggesting it.

pauldry · 07-12-2016 6:54pm

even though mild will dominate the rest of Winter IMO there will be some cooler interludes and you never know.

Very wavy jetstream this year means when we are on the mild side we get exceptionally mild but if we were to go to the cold side for a few days then its back to -7c again like November in Markree.

mickger844posts · 07-12-2016 7:45pm

Three days now of this incessant dull wet and mild muck. It really is the worst type of weather. Max temp today 13.3c. The only advantage is the heating is not needed as much and a few bob can be saved.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Harry Palmr · 07-12-2016 8:12pm

I was working in the rain this morning - all morning. Wet weather gear on but in the wind it still got in wet hands, damp cuffs and collar

Bleugh!

pad199207 · 07-12-2016 8:28pm

0.4mm from the drought busting rain today

MidMan25 · 07-12-2016 8:32pm

pauldry wrote: »

even though mild will dominate the rest of Winter IMO there will be some cooler interludes and you never know.

Very wavy jetstream this year means when we are on the mild side we get exceptionally mild but if we were to go to the cold side for a few days then its back to -7c again like November in Markree.

Mild will dominate the rest of winter?

Absolute nonsense and completely unfounded.

ArKl0w · 07-12-2016 8:49pm

MidMan25 wrote: »

Mild will dominate the rest of winter?

Absolute nonsense and completely unfounded.

Can you tell me how many winters mild hasn't dominated? None I'd say
That's what that's founded on
It's not Minnesota we're in

Mild will probably lose its domination for a number of days from time to time and anything can happen
The form horse for snow in Ireland is march and April when it's usually too late to be significant

nagdefy · 07-12-2016 9:01pm

ArKl0w wrote: »

Can you tell me how many winters mild hasn't dominated? None I'd say
That's what that's founded on
It's not Minnesota we're in

Mild will probably lose its domination for a number of days from time to time and anything can happen
The form horse for snow in Ireland is march and April when it's usually too late to be significant

Mild definitely didn't dominate in 2009/2010 or 1962/1963

ArKl0w · 07-12-2016 9:38pm

Ah come on now,there was a week or two of easterly in 2009 that's mild dominating
November December 2010,an exceptionally rare period gave way to two thirds of mild domination
I'll give you mid Dec 62 to end February '63 alright
But the point is rarities cannot be counted on to be examples of the future
They are not our climate norm
Sure anything can happen,it is chaos theory
But the form horse is our normal climate
Anything else could happen but there's little or nothing in the worth looking at models at this stage pointing to abnormal winter weather for us yet

nagdefy · 07-12-2016 10:09pm

ArKl0w wrote: »

Ah come on now,there was a week or two of easterly in 2009 that's mild dominating
November December 2010,an exceptionally rare period gave way to two thirds of mild domination
I'll give you mid Dec 62 to end February '63 alright
But the point is rarities cannot be counted on to be examples of the future
They are not our climate norm
Sure anything can happen,it is chaos theory
But the form horse is our normal climate
Anything else could happen but there's little or nothing in the worth looking at models at this stage pointing to abnormal winter weather for us yet

No way Dec 2009 (2.9C), January 2010 (1.7C), February 2010 (2.7C) averages for my local weather station, Carlow Oak Park. That's 3C below average for the winter as a whole. That's a huge drop. Imagine a summer averages 15.5C and one averaged 18.5C. That has never happened. Infact only one month got over 18.5C i.e. August 1995 at 18.9C.

That winter was dominated by northerlies and north westerlies as well as the 3-4 weeks easterlies. Snow was recorded each month in Carlow, Oak Park.

nagdefy · 07-12-2016 10:19pm

ArKl0w wrote: »

Can you tell me how many winters mild hasn't dominated? None I'd say
That's what that's founded on
It's not Minnesota we're in

Mild will probably lose its domination for a number of days from time to time and anything can happen
The form horse for snow in Ireland is march and April when it's usually too late to be significant

Another factor of course is regional variation in Ireland. At sea level in Arklow you need an easterly or north easterly to deliver snow.

At my altitude in the south midlands we rarely have a winter without decent snowfall. The local N.S. has already had a day off school for snow in November. I've had days off school 30 years ago in April with snowfall. We can get snow with wind from most directions. Today people were maxing at 14.5-15C. At home 11C was the max.

My location makes it difficult for me to get overly stressed if the weather is mild on the 7th of December. It's been like that many times and we've ended up with enough of the white stuff. I remember this time in December in 2008 was quite mild. We ended up with snow lying from 1st - 23rd February 2009.

ArKl0w · 07-12-2016 11:00pm

A hill climate in any country though is not the same as the countries normal climate where most people live

Aswell as that,periods of anti cyclonic inversion cold don't count in any winter in my book as they won't lead to snow
Regardless point stands,our weather doesn't do snow normally so expecting it to do so when there's no synoptic build up yet is irrational

But then again,we're all irrational in a weather forum,it's compulsory,I should know:D

pqdvdplayer · 07-12-2016 11:18pm

ArKl0w wrote: »

A hill climate in any country though is not the same as the countries normal climate where most people live

Aswell as that,periods of anti cyclonic inversion cold don't count in any winter in my book as they won't lead to snow
Regardless point stands,our weather doesn't do snow normally so expecting it to do so when there's no synoptic build up yet is irrational

But then again,we're all irrational in a weather forum,it's compulsory,I should know:D

Are there any countries with a climate as unextreme and "safe" as ours when it comes to temperature variations? I know places like Iceland are unextreme with regards to variation. The benefit for them though is that their temperature range is lower so that snow (extreme weather) is far more likely

JCX BXC · 07-12-2016 11:37pm

Clear skies and 9.4c here in West Clare.

Clonmel1000 · 08-12-2016 9:40am

ArKl0w wrote: »

Ah come on now,there was a week or two of easterly in 2009 that's mild dominating
November December 2010,an exceptionally rare period gave way to two thirds of mild domination
I'll give you mid Dec 62 to end February '63 alright
But the point is rarities cannot be counted on to be examples of the future
They are not our climate norm
Sure anything can happen,it is chaos theory
But the form horse is our normal climate
Anything else could happen but there's little or nothing in the worth looking at models at this stage pointing to abnormal winter weather for us yet

That type of clear well thought out and thoroughly logical argument will not go down well here but for my money you've hit the nail on the head completely.

nagdefy · 08-12-2016 1:08pm

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

That type of clear well thought out and thoroughly logical argument will not go down well here but for my money you've hit the nail on the head completely.

I don't think the thread ever even bordered on the rational;)

It's seems to always be a thread of hope (despair!) that this is the 1 in 50 year like 1962/63 and 2009/2010:D

Now a mild or relatively mild winter can always give you a decent snowfall. Many examples at lower level. January 1982, January 1987, February 1991, December 2000 (northern half of country), Christmas Day 2004, February 2009 to name but a few mildish winters in the last 35 years with decent snowfall events. There was a mild winter 2010/2011 which had some snow in December iirc.:D

Also there's the problem that southern, eastern and south eastern coastal areas of Ireland see the least amount of snow. While a large percentage of the population live there they are not representative of snowfall on the land mass of the country as a whole.

That's why we all have different perceptions of cold spells. Arkl0w defines a cold spell by prolonged snow which is a good way of describing it. I look at how much colder than average a winter is, e.g. 2009/10 being 3C colder than average and inland areas receiving plenty of snow. We were messaging yesterday and i described how much snow i've seen due to altitude. I neglected to say inland areas at lower level see a fair bit more than on the coast. So there are different perceptions. The gulf stream has a lot to answer for!

But yes we're a hopeful crowd on here hoping it's the 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 year

mickger844posts · 08-12-2016 1:32pm

Stunning sunny day after the wet gloom of the previous 3 days. Temp 12.1c and even a little warmth in the sun.

www.waterfordweather.com

Gonzo · 08-12-2016 2:38pm

fantastic day here too, very mild and unbroken blue skies!

Eamondomc · 08-12-2016 3:44pm

After a dull, sometimes damp start to the day, its cleared up here to a sunny warm afternoon that you'd be happy to have this close to sunset in July or august,14.5 degrees in my part of Longford.

Oscar Bravo · 08-12-2016 3:44pm

12 degrees and clear blue skies in Castlebar. not bad

Rebelbrowser · 08-12-2016 4:02pm

Still wet and gloomy in Cork....

JCX BXC · 08-12-2016 5:30pm

Unbroken sunshine from dawn to dusk here in West Clare. Sun down already, and I see a few clouds on the horizon.

Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

Comments