Property Market 2019

Compak · 14-10-2019 10:32am

OwlsZat wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if one if the home builders would stop building. They have sizable work forces built up and and assets that wont stop depreciating. Not to mention all the prepaid land. Its more likely they will keep building even if the enivitable happen and prices get a small "haircut". Stopping building isn't really an option in the short term.

And getting rid of those sizable workforces will be the first cost saving measure.

Then sale of distressed assets

We all know how it goes. I am sure all on here lived through 2008+.

Why do people think 'this time will be different'

Edit: And I know people are saying this will be much milder and they're all waiting for 5-10% drops.
The truth is when prices are dropping that's when it's hardest to buy and many of those saying they would buy, now mvoe the goalpost and wait for 10-20% drops.
Again, look at 2013, 'experts' calling for more down even after 50%.
It never works out like people think.

karenalot · 14-10-2019 10:41am

Compak wrote: »

Why do people think 'this time will be different'

This. People seem to think that houses will drop 25% and they will finally get that dream home in Clontarf. Builders will keep on building, banks will give out mortgages despite immediate negative equity being a threat, no jobs will be lost and everyone will still get annual pay rises.

Then there is reality.

mariaalice · 14-10-2019 10:53am

karenalot wrote: »

This. People seem to think that houses will drop 25% and they will finally get that dream home in Clontarf. Builders will keep on building, banks will give out mortgages despite immediate negative equity being a threat, no jobs will be lost and everyone will still get annual pay rises.

Then there is reality.

Unless they are dense/ a troll/ or have a we are all doomed type personality, most know that a 25% drop would not be good thing all round, its more a sort of daydream coping mechanism, its very hard on people who genuinely don't see any chance of owning their own home.

Cyrus · 14-10-2019 10:56am

fliball123 wrote: »

where are people getting 25% decreases thats not happening

they are picking the figure that they feel will make it most likely for them to be able to afford whatever it is they want wherever they want mostly :pac:

fliball123 · 14-10-2019 11:00am

Cyrus wrote: »

they are picking the figure that they feel will make it most likely for them to be able to afford whatever it is they want wherever they want mostly :pac:

Well I guess its an opinion just love to know if there is anything concrete to back it up. I mean if I was a betting man I would say about 10% drop over teh next 18 months then it climbing again once brexit has been dealt with, but thats simply a gut feeling nothing concrete to back it up

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-10-2019 11:00am

You have to remember folks, those who already own a home do not obsess or fantasize about the property market on a regular basis. There will always be a cognitive bias in threads like this, for prices to come down.

That's not to say they won't, as everything is cyclical.

Nika Bolokov · 15-10-2019 10:28pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

You have to remember folks, those who already own a home do not obsess or fantasize about the property market on a regular basis. There will always be a cognitive bias in threads like this, for prices to come down.

That's not to say they won't, as everything is cyclical.

Great point , there's a lot of ; It will be great if prices crash and I'll get a cheap house , forgetting you also may loose your job , your friends and family emigrate and if in the public sector have your pay slashed whilst living in a miserable atmosphere.

DelBoy Trotter · 16-10-2019 3:06pm

Viewed a house in Sandyford 3 months ago, was priced at €380k. Just checked the property price register, and it sold for €481k :eek: It was a bit under priced when it went up, but I didn't think it would hit that figure.

Mickiemcfist · 16-10-2019 4:14pm

DelBoy Trotter wrote: »

Viewed a house in Sandyford 3 months ago, was priced at €380k. Just checked the property price register, and it sold for €481k :eek: It was a bit under priced when it went up, but I didn't think it would hit that figure.

Jaysus, just checked it there - I was at that one too. It was lovely inside in fairness but the area is fairly dodgy so I didn't bid. That's mental I was thinking it'd end up at 425ish.

SozBbz · 16-10-2019 4:23pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Jaysus, just checked it there - I was at that one too. It was lovely inside in fairness but the area is fairly dodgy so I didn't bid. That's mental I was thinking it'd end up at 425ish.

Found the house online with a bit of googling

Not my cup of tea but goes to show that houses that would tick a lot of boxes for a lot of people are still going for serious money.

Also, I think people are willing to pay for turnkey condition because the costs of renovations at the moment are extortionate.

DelBoy Trotter · 16-10-2019 5:53pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Jaysus, just checked it there - I was at that one too. It was lovely inside in fairness but the area is fairly dodgy so I didn't bid. That's mental I was thinking it'd end up at 425ish.

While it is an ex council estate, that area is very quiet these days

DelBoy Trotter · 16-10-2019 5:56pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Found the house online with a bit of googling

Not my cup of tea but goes to show that houses that would tick a lot of boxes for a lot of people are still going for serious money.

Also, I think people are willing to pay for turnkey condition because the costs of renovations at the moment are extortionate.

I wouldn’t say it was in the perfect turnkey condition, but it was in a lot better condition than a lot of houses on the market that we’ve seen. The ad didn’t show any pics of the upstairs bathroom, and there was a reason for that....it needed a new one! Otherwise, the house could have done with a tidy up and lick of paint, and new carpets if I’m remember correctly, but nothing that was needed straight away. If the price hadn’t gone so mad, we would have put in a bid

Mickiemcfist · 17-10-2019 8:59am

DelBoy Trotter wrote: »

While it is an ex council estate, that area is very quiet these days

True it's a lot quieter than it was & to be fair I couldn't see anything rough about it at all. When you google the estate (News section) there seems to be one or two fairly dodgy families there - namely a convicted murderer. For 400k plus I'd want somewhere away from that.

Yea for me the house was relatively turn key - i.e. remodelling needed to be done but you could move in & work away. The extension & kitchen were lovely.

Geuze · 17-10-2019 9:39am

Cyrus wrote: »

People here are talking about 25 percent decreases that’s not a small haircut

Given the recent rise in average household size, due to adults living at home, there is huge latent demand for housing in Ireland.

Also note that there is no over-supply or excessive construction.

Households balance sheets have been rebuilt

There will not be any 25% fall in house prices.

They may stop rising, and that is good.

Cuddlesworth · 17-10-2019 11:02am

Geuze wrote: »

Given the recent rise in average household size, due to adults living at home, there is huge latent demand for housing in Ireland.

Also note that there is no over-supply or excessive construction.

Households balance sheets have been rebuilt

There will not be any 25% fall in house prices.

They may stop rising, and that is good.

Damm straight, house prices are only based on household income and not other factors like the world and local economy, consumer confidence, the availability of credit, emigration, regulations like building standards and government incentives like HTB or anything else.

dor843088 · 18-10-2019 9:55am

DelBoy Trotter wrote: »

Viewed a house in Sandyford 3 months ago, was priced at €380k. Just checked the property price register, and it sold for €481k :eek: It was a bit under priced when it went up, but I didn't think it would hit that figure.

The old rope a dope. Get them through the door get them to "fall in love " with the property then the EA will turn on the milking machine . "Youv been out bid " " the seller is looking for a bit more " " do you think that bid will scare anyone off ?" " a little bit more and I think they'll sell " . Lol

q85dw7osi4lebg · 18-10-2019 10:10am

dor843088 wrote: »

The old rope a dope. Get them through the door get them to "fall in love " with the property then the EA will turn on the milking machine . "Youv been out bid " " the seller is looking for a bit more " " do you think that bid will scare anyone off ?" " a little bit more and I think they'll sell " . Lol

And they end up getting the best price possible for the owner. It’s a no brainer to use an agent to sell your home really.

OwlsZat · 19-10-2019 9:46am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

And they end up getting the best price possible for the owner. It’s a no brainer to use an agent to sell your home really.

Such a backward system. Trust us for total Paddy Wackery!

Padre_Pio · 19-10-2019 11:33pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Such a backward system. Trust us for total Paddy Wackery!

You'll be thanking that system if you're ever selling.

EA got my parents a price way above what they were expecting. That man earned his commission.

mcbert · 20-10-2019 1:21am

Padre_Pio wrote: »

You'll be thanking that system if you're ever selling.

EA got my parents a price way above what they were expecting. That man earned his commission.

But what if you pick the wrong EA?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 20-10-2019 1:23am

mcbert wrote: »

But what if you pick the wrong EA?

Every comission based EA in the world will want to get the best price.

There is no wrong one.

mcbert · 20-10-2019 1:33am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Every comission based EA in the world will want to get the best price.

There is no wrong one.

Every owner with experience of what EAs do and don't do, with the confidence to do same, in the world, will want to get the best price.

There is no wrong one.

[Sorry couldn't resist this age old argument, but it's not rocket science what EAs do]

Assetbacked · 20-10-2019 9:17am

fliball123 wrote: »

Well I guess its an opinion just love to know if there is anything concrete to back it up. I mean if I was a betting man I would say about 10% drop over teh next 18 months then it climbing again once brexit has been dealt with, but thats simply a gut feeling nothing concrete to back it up

But what about the fact there has been no supply for ten years? The rapid price increases from 2012 were solely based on demand increasing without supply catching up.

The stories about the impending global downturn are just that at this stage; stories. The Irish economy is still predicted to grow strongly with Brexit not occurring or occurring with a deal (the two most likely outcomes currently). All combining to mean that quite simply prices should come down gradually once supply picks up. As for how much, that's not easy to say considering supply is very slowly starting to pick up but we still have more people arriving each week in Ireland to take up new jobs. What is essential is for the Central Bank to keep its rules to put a cap on borrowing as people will just borrow to pay more if they had the ability to do this, artificially inflating prices yet again. If prices are too high, they will need to come down to meet the affordability ceiling.

OwlsZat · 20-10-2019 10:23am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Every comission based EA in the world will want to get the best price.

There is no wrong one.

Heard anecdotal stories of EAs being lying shysters a vast number if times. Tbf its normally from someone buying and selling. Saying that everyone selling once bought. Seems daft we wouldn't create a process for buying/ selling houses like other European countries. Driving all prices upwards always seems a great idea until it's not.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 20-10-2019 1:05pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Heard anecdotal stories of EAs being lying shysters a vast number if times. Tbf its normally from someone buying and selling. Saying that everyone selling once bought. Seems daft we wouldn't create a process for buying/ selling houses like other European countries. Driving all prices upwards always seems a great idea until it's not.

In that case why are properties in our capital and surrounding areas still cheaper than most other European capitals ? Per sq.ft.

OwlsZat · 20-10-2019 1:26pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

In that case why are properties in our capital and surrounding areas still cheaper than most other European capitals ? Per sq.ft.

Why don't you post the list?

Apart from being capital cities can't really see much else that makes Dublin comparable with the likes of London, Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam...etc

Graham · 20-10-2019 1:31pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Apart from being capital cities can't really see much else that makes Dublin comparable with the likes of London, Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam...etc

apart from the main thing they have in common, you can't see what they have in common?

riclad · 20-10-2019 2:18pm

Dublin ,paris, london, have in common victorian ,georgian architecture and older buildings,
going back to 1700 ,Dublin still has many great old buildings that have been
maintained and are in great condition .
There has not been over building or excessive lending by the banks,
also the population has increased since 2008 .
Every one knows if a house is worth 200k, it may be listed fro 180 or 170k,
to attract buyers .
I think most estate agents are professional and honest .
IF you want to think of professionals who ripped off people think of the bankers who retired with a pension after 2008, leaving the tax payer with a bill of 200 billion which we will be paying for the next 30 years .

JJJackal · 20-10-2019 4:23pm

riclad wrote: »

IF you want to think of professionals who ripped off people think of the bankers who retired with a pension after 2008, leaving the tax payer with a bill of 200 billion which we will be paying for the next 30 years .

Always easy to blame the banks ( I do blame Anglo though)

The banks didnt leave us with the debt, the borrowers who couldnt pay back the money did.

The banks were ultimately reckless but so was every borrower who has since failed to pay back money

Sheeps · 22-10-2019 1:16pm

Just approved for a full mortgage exemption, going now from looking unsuccessfully/bidding for the last year at €330k (~€350 new) price range to being able to look at the 370k (~€390k new) price range. There is a huge difference in the quality of the properties with that €40-50k jump in spending. Can't believe how dramatic the increase in quality of house is at this level.

Property Market 2019

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