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The lotto - are the odds of getting a sequence of numbers the same as random numbers?

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    #32
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users Posts: 16,156 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    cavedave wrote: »

    There has been one case of a single vote deciding the election of an Irish TD. In the 2002 Irish general election, Dan Neville won a seat in the parliament by just one vote.

    There has never been the case of a single vote deciding an election. Even in the case of an election with 3 voters, the 3 people decide the election, not the one person whose vote makes it 2-1. How do you decide which vote is the winning vote, anyway?


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    #33
    cavedave
    Registered Users Posts: 2,164 ✭✭✭cavedave


    Pherekydes

    There has been one case of a single vote deciding the election of an Irish TD. In the 2002 Irish general election, Dan Neville won a seat in the parliament by just one vote.
    There has never been the case of a single vote deciding an election. Even in the case of an election with 3 voters, the 3 people decide the election, not the one person whose vote makes it 2-1. How do you decide which vote is the winning vote, anyway?

    Thats an interesting point. My comparison was more between someone who did/did not go out and buy a lottery ticket and someone who did/did not go out and vote. Winning in each case I would define as winning the lottery or changing the result so it now goes the way you voted. I can find no cases where an election was tied. So no cases where you deciding to vote or not to would make a difference *(except the one election listed where you could have tied the result).


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    #34
    makl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 710 ✭✭✭makl


    IrishKnight wrote: »
    NO no no no.

    8,145,060 is the possible number of combos. It doesn't matter how many lines you play this will always stay the same.

    If you play two lines then the odds are 2/8,145,060 or 1/4072530

    If you play three lines then the odds are 3/8,145,060 or 1/2715020

    And so on.

    yea, divide 8,145,060 by 2 for 2 lines ("1/4072530" chance).


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    #35
    Pgibson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 406 ✭✭Pgibson


    Princess Innocent Knickers wrote: »
    that's a six million profit!


    Its been tried here in Ireland!

    By a certain Stefan Klincewicz and pals in 1992 !

    Read all about it here:

    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_19960104/ai_n9632803

    .


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    #36
    Pal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭Pal


    I consider myself to be a Lotto Cynic.
    Will never play it.
    It doesn't matter what sequence the balls come out.
    The balls don't think about it.
    No mathematics can change the fact that the Government always wins and the punter always loses.

    Now would anybody like to buy a ticket. I'm running my own Lotto.
    Somebody's guaranteed to win.
    Me !


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    #37
    Pgibson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 406 ✭✭Pgibson


    As long as you regard the Lotto as a "Fun Tax" that you just might win you are ok.

    I never play it because the (my) money goes on Sport.

    Sport is for life's losers...people who can't do mathematics.

    .


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    #38
    Pherekydes
    Registered Users Posts: 16,156 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    Pgibson wrote: »
    Sport is for life's losers...people who can't do mathematics.

    .

    There's a lot of people who do both.

    Wasn't it Plato (or Aristotle) who said "Alegebra and Athletics" or maybe it was "Gymnastics and Geometry" were the ideal preparation for life (meaning Mathematics and Physical Training- a variation on the Roman "Mens sana in corpore sano" ethic)


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    #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,425 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Actually, there can be a slight non-random effect in the design of the lottery machine, if your numbers are generated that way. In Canada, we have a lottery called 6-49 where six numbers (one to forty-nine) are generated "at random" from balls dropping out of a spinning chamber. However, after 25 years of this, the actual frequency of the balls arriving at the bottom and falling out is not quite random. It shows the different probability of the balls arriving there from the six rows that empty into the chamber, and the numbers in the 40s have tended to come out more frequently than the rest, then same for the 30s relative to the rest. Also there seems to be a slight preference for the higher unit values that come out first into the chamber (like 8,9,10, 18,19,20 etc). This preference has not been so blatant that it would be worth skewing your picks, but it is a non-random factor in the lottery. Of course, if your lottery generates random numbers electronically then this detail means nothing. You should see if they keep the same stats, and study the process and the frequency, see if there's any pattern to it or not.

    There is also one good reason not to play consecutive numbers -- a lot of people do, and if you happen to win, you will share the prize with a lot more people than usual. This happened here recently on some lottery, a second place prize (five of six numbers) went to anyone who had 41, 42, 43, 44, 45 and instead of the usual handful, it was like ten thousand splitting the prize pool, and they ended up getting about 2% of the usual value of the prize.

    You're far better off to play the sports lottery, even if a person knew nothing about sports and marked the tickets at random, their chances of winning would be greater than these big lotteries. So if you do know something about sports, and can eliminate some obvious non-starters (like Canada winning anything) you're far ahead of random probability going in.


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    #40
    Pgibson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 406 ✭✭Pgibson


    If all the balls were initially "created equal" then any differences might be down to the paint on them.

    Is is conceivable that a ball with "44" painted on it weighs a tiny fraction more than a ball with "1" painted on it?

    Or, if the numbers are embossed on the balls rather than painted on, there may be a minute difference in the weight of the balls.

    Or there may be a difference in the "coefficient of friction" on the balls with more marks engraved on them....ie the balls with the higher numbers.

    SOMETHING interesting is happening anyway !

    Just a thought.

    (P.S. The very first Space Shuttle rose off the ground ever so slightly slower than expected...they traced it to the weight of the paint !)

    .


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