Interview with M.T and Gerald Flemming

Lumi · 24-12-2010 12:00AM #1

A SPECIAL CHRISTMAS INTERVIEW
WITH
M.T CRANIUM AND GERALD FLEMING OF MET ÉIREANN

Presenting a special interview with two Giants of Irish Weather, Gerald Fleming and M.T. Cranium
as a Christmas surprise for all contributors to the Weather Forum on Boards.ie

M.T. Cranium’s daily weather forecast is the first port of call for most for us each morning on the Weather Forum. The most thanked contributor on Boards.ie, M.T’s input, knowledge and expertise over the last couple of years has transformed the Weather Forum from a quiet and sleepy off-shoot of the main science site on Boards.ie to an enthusiastic, energetic and popular forum that stimulates lively debate on any and all aspects of Irish weather.

Gerald Fleming is currently Head of the General Forecasting Division in Met Éireann and is also one of the most familiar faces of mainstream Irish weather broadcasting. Famous for his trademark wink and tranquil vocal style, Gerald presented his first weather forecast in July 1985 (a very dramatic month in Irish weather history!) making him the longest-serving and one of the most popular weather broadcasters on RTÉ television. Although he may not present the daily weather forecasts anymore, Gerald still makes regular contributions on both radio and TV, particularly during extreme weather events.

Several people deserve thanks for helping to bring these interviews about, first and foremost being the ‘stars of the show’ themselves, M.T Cranium and Gerald Fleming for agreeing to take part and for giving up their time during the hectic ‘Big Freeze Part One’ in early December.
Special thanks are also due to Deep Easterly who helped to draw up the questions, the Irish Meteorological Society and last but not least, thanks to Trogdor for his help with setting up the thread.

Hope you all enjoy reading it and Happy Christmas!!

Lumi · 24-12-2010 12:05AM

M.T. Cranium

When and why did you decide to become a climatologist? Was there any one specific event that prompted your interest in the weather?
I became interested in the weather in secondary school, and my parents bought some recording instruments for me as a Christmas present (in 1963 sadly), so I began to record daily weather in Jan 1964, then decided to take up climatology as my university specialty a few years later. There was no specific weather event that got me interested.

Was weather your first career choice? If you had not become a climatologist, what other career would you have chosen?
As it turned out, my research interests were not in the mainstream of the profession even before the global warming period (which began in the 1980s after I had more or less moved out of the mainstream). As a result, I have had two "careers" so to speak, my research and whatever work came along in that profession, but much of my working life turned out to be in computer programming and publication design (back in the days before desktop publishing). I've had some working experience in social work as well. If I had gotten into the sport earlier in life, I may have preferred professional golf. I have played quite a bit at the amateur level.

What is your earliest weather memory?
Well, I can remember some weather events from early childhood, as I was living in the U.K. until I turned eight (my parents emigrated to Canada then). It must have been the cold winter of Feb 1956 that I recall walking to school in the snow, wearing shorts, something that could never happen in Canada. I still have a picture of that snow in my mind, but almost nothing else from that far back. I remember the first years of my weather station in much more detail than anything more recent; let's hope this isn't the first signs of Alzheimer’s.

What are your five most memorable weather events?
Only five? ... I'm afraid they are all in Canada, I would have to separate out memorable for me and memorable for forecasting ... big snowstorms that happened in 1968 and 1971 while I was at university, a huge blizzard that is fairly well known as the Great Lakes or Ohio super-bomb of Jan 26, 1978 -- I was actually in a forecast office when that hit -- a heat wave in July 1988 when it hit 100 F where I lived, but the most dramatic event of my experience was a supercell tornadic thunderstorm that hit at 0300h where I was living at the time in July 1995, that storm had continuous thunder and lightning and was far more severe than anything I had seen previously, and our house was narrowly missed by a tornado in that storm (saw the damage from that the next day) -- it was a frightening experience with the wind gusting probably in excess of 80 mph. Many others too, I have almost a photographic memory for weather events and their dates (probably like most people reading this).

If you had weather machine that could control the weather in Ireland for one day of the year, what synoptic pattern would you choose and why?
What makes you think I don't? ... Seriously, I can't improve on today (1 Dec) but I would get the snow streamers to hit everyone that wanted them.

Living on a large continent as you do, do you find the climate and weather of Ireland much more tame and predictable in comparison or do you find predicting the weather patterns in and around Ireland a challenge?
To some extent, the same applies to my location now (west coast of Canada) compared to where I used to live (Ontario, Great Lakes region), but tame is probably too strong a term, maybe less dramatic? ... there is a different challenge involved in forecasting in any marine-dominated climate, and I don't claim it's easy but you get used to the range of possibilities and try to work within that, I certainly grew up in a climate that could switch from one extreme to another very quickly and obviously Ireland has air masses that are less extreme arriving there, but we seem to be finding lots to talk about anyway.

What part of Ireland do you consider to have the best climate?
I have come to the conclusion that Waterford and the eastern part of Cork might have the slight edge, especially for those like myself who enjoy golfing. But from where I sit, the regional climates don't seem all that different, except for the stronger winds on the west and north coasts.

Do you enjoy extreme weather events?
I have concentrated on severe weather in my research, which is why I'm here at all by the way, to understand more about how my research can be applied to European climate and weather after many years of developing it and studying it from a North American point of view. In 2005 I got into some U.K. forecasting on another forum, and much weather discussion on several forums, which is why one of the boards.ie weather forum stalwarts invited me to join in here, he thought I might get some useful information and he was certainly right about that. But to answer your question, the diplomatic answer is that I am interested in a scientific way in severe weather events, but I don't take some malicious pleasure out of them, it's perhaps even more concerning for a forecaster than most of the public to see something like a large tornado cluster or hurricane Katrina bearing down on populated areas, knowing full well what's likely to happen. I guess the motivation is to understand better the processes and how to forecast well in advance some of these extreme events to help people get prepared for them even better than is the case now.

What is your top favourite weather type?
I think it would be thunderstorms, and then snow (like most weather forum people).

Weather forecasters are sometimes said to only as good as their last prediction. What forecast are you most proud of?
I recall that pseudo-tropical storm event in the Irish Sea last July, picking up on that in advance and being able to make a reasonably accurate forecast of the lightning and wind pattern was enjoyable. I could quote some other things but they would be over here more, or else things that were probably generally well predicted by lots of people, so this maybe stood out a bit.

What was your least accurate forecast?
Don’t quite understand the question ... just kidding, I think there was some business about a warm, sunny day in Ireland (right there I should have known) that was going to come about because cloud would burn off and yada yada, but it just stayed cloudy and not all that warm. But people forgave me (I think).

In addition to your own knowledge and experience, which NWP models do you consider when doing up a forecast for Ireland? And which model do you yourself view as being superior?
I believe that I take the same approach as the highly paid professionals in reviewing all of them, trying to keep a handle on which models have performed best in similar situations (and in the recent past) and also trying to come to a reasonable consensus of what they are all saying (when different). I won't surprise too many people by saying the ECM seems a bit more reliable especially 4-6 days out than the main competition, the GFS and the UKMO which I would rate about equal, and nowadays, the Canadian GEM (or CMC) can be added to the mix -- we tend to use it as an equally reliable player in North America but until recently it wasn't working as well for western Europe. There are specific products like the HIRLAM suite that are very helpful. And I blend in some of my research index products especially when we get out into the less reliable time frame, because I've found that my research products actually improve on the longer-range maps and help with the timing of things on occasion. But of course, there are the toad entrails and the crystal ball, and I keep Ken Ring on speed-dial.

Rate your obsession with the weather out of 10
I cannot tell a lie, well not about this, ten ... but I have some other interests too, it's not just like weather all day long, I have some political interests and sports interests ... on a busy weather day it's almost too much time required to keep up, especially with the boards.ie members posting about every snowflake, lightning bolt, or hail drop they see -- but seriously, I am as much into the weather as just about anyone (in other words, much like most of those likely to read this).

All time favourite song/singer/band?
I am horribly stuck in the past there, being of a certain age, I like groups such as Talking Heads and Men at Work, and I get a big charge out of Land Down Under for some reason (never been there). My main musical taste is actually classical and some folk music too.

Favourite food? What is your speciality?
Living where I do, it's a difficult choice, Vancouver is very blessed with every kind of global cuisine and I would confess a slight preference for Mexican food but we have a lot of Chinese restaurants here that are excellent, also Indian. Tell you one thing though, you won't be seeing any Canadian food restaurants opening in Ireland any time soon, we tend to blend together everyone else's cuisine here and it's hard to say what would be "Canadian food" as such.

All time favourite film?
Must admit that I don't go to the cinema (or theatre as we say here) these days, last film I saw was the Da Vinci Code which was alright (didn't believe a word of it), and my favourite film remains 2001 (A Space Odyssey) despite being over forty years old now, I've seen it a few times since the cinema, and while it's dated in technical terms, it remains a favourite for me. Also Tender Mercies and "Amadeus".
If you were to come back as an animal, what animal would it be?
Don't think I would fancy that, but I suppose a cat seeing how much we obey their every command.

What is your favourite joke?
You want Kindred Spirit for jokes; he posts some great ones on the U.K. weather forum I joined. I did hear a good joke the other day, goes like this:
A policeman stopped a man late one night.
"What are you doing out at such an hour?"
"I'm on my way to a lecture on the evils of drinking and partying."
"Oh really. Who would be giving such a lecture at this time of night?"
"My wife."

What is your personal philosophy?
Something like don't take anything for granted, respect the wisdom of the past, and help people when you can.

If you ever moved to Ireland, which part would you most like to live in?
I don't expect to get that lucky, but would probably say west coast (I like to get the first of the weather, well most of the time). I have had one opportunity to visit Ireland, which was back in 1978, and I enjoyed all of the areas I had the chance to visit, but that was mostly Kerry, the west coast and Dublin, I would like to visit Donegal one day too, and the various parts of the south that I missed the first time. May have to travel incognito if I return, especially if it's raining.

Are you surprised at the huge success of your daily weather forecasts on Boards.ie?
First I've heard of it ... seriously, I am surprised at the chain of events from starting the forecast thread, it was meant to be a rather sleepy place for weather forum people to share their forecast ideas, not necessarily what it seems to have become, but I have allowed events to unfold as they will, meanwhile, should say that the forecast thread is really just part of a larger package, the understanding of the weather forum regulars who tend to operate more in the dedicated threads, and I certainly try to play off that strength by reminding my readers to check in there (the forum in general) especially when there's active weather. I think that formula has been the success rather than just something to do with my forecast thread. And it would be easy for any of those guys to pick up my forecast thread if necessary, except for the fact that I am living my life eight hours behind you, and it's much more convenient for me to issue a forecast at 0600 than for most others in the forum. That's all I could say, a sort of series of unintended consequences of ideas and events that has become something unexpected. It may continue to change too, as I would like to get more of the total forum forecasting capacity into play, this is something like sending out one player when you've got a whole team available.

If there was one thing you could change about the weather forum, what would you do?
Nothing much, it all seems to blend together pretty well with the discussions, the contests, and the photography -- it has really grown quite a bit, I think, since 2009, and I'm happy with what I see.

Can perpetual motion ever be achieved?
No, but Trogdor must be close.

Can you ever envisage meteorology becoming a precise science?
Not unless we get actual scientists involved. Seriously, it may improve in the long-range, but in the short range, precision depends on both the forecasts and the general public receiving the forecasts. Precision can be gained but people have to be ready to do some of the work, through decoding products that can be made available. If it's just a case of verbal forecasts for millions of end users, that will be too complex even if feasible. Really, the way things are trending, precise forecasting is coming into view more by the self-education of weather forecast users who want to be able to decode radars and other short-term products, then you become your own precise forecaster so to speak. The role of people like me in that process would be mainly to alert people to what to look for, rather than saying at 9:37 it will snow at your house. I might even be able to do that, theoretically, but then if you multiply that challenge by the population of Ireland or a larger country, you'll see how delivery of any such product requires that the user be interactive and able to interpret products like radar forecasts. Then also, with longer-term, if that gets more and more accurate, it will probably imply a capability for weather control (if we understand the cause and effect, we may be able to manipulate the cause) -- so that perfect forecasting would become also a question of reliable control technology. I foresee that being possible within 30-50 years but have no firm idea if that's realistic, like those housekeeping robots we were promised when I was young, but now I am one myself.

All time favourite novel?
Those "M" novels by Samuel Beckett had an influence on me, I used to think in those boring linear non-Irish ways that plague most of mankind. By the way, I am working on my own novel, it is to be entitled "Slow-moving occlusion" and it's set in wartime Britain. I expect big sales and a very lucrative film contract. But I may not bother finishing it.

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?
Back when you asked this, yes. Right now, probably not.

What are the MTC household dining on for Christmas Dinner?
Whatever walks through the clear line of sight from the front window, plus a few vegetables. Most likely a very traditional turkey and/or ham, with all the fixings.

What's your Christmas Wish?
I hope things go well for Ireland, because I don't want the place to be in a shambles when they dump me off the plane after the deportation hearings.

And finally, what would you most like to see under your Christmas tree this morning?
Things I won't see there, no doubt.

Lumi · 24-12-2010 12:05AM

Gerald Fleming – Met Éireann

When and why did you decide to become a meteorologist? Was there any one specific event that prompted your interest in the weather?
I studied Experimental Physics in UCD; first a B.Sc then an M.Sc. When I qualified in 1980 the country was probably in a worse state than it is now – the priority was to get a job! The well-trodden paths from Physics were into the Met Service or into the P&T (now Eircom). I applied for a job with the Met Service, was surprised to be offered it, and am even more surprised to find myself still here 30 years later!! So, I’m afraid that my interest in the weather was not the result of some lofty vocation, but of the very mundane need to find employment.

Was weather your first career choice? If you had not become a meteorologist, what other career would you have chosen?

I was actually very interested in pursuing a career in Medical Physics – my M.Sc work was in the measurement of naturally-occurring radiation, and I had gained some expertise in the measurement of radioactivity. Maybe I’ll go back to it when this whole weather thing blows over!

What is your earliest weather memory?
I remember making a snowman in the garden during the winter of 1962/1963.

What are your five most memorable weather events?
The severe thunderstorms over Dublin in July 1985 are a very spectacular memory. I was working on the night shift and went up on the roof of the Glasnevin building to see the lightning display. The Dublin snow of 1982 was remarkable for a number of reasons – not least that it fell on my first day at work in the Dublin Airport forecast office; I had just been transferred there from Shannon! The great storm in January 1990 killed about 14 people in Ireland, if my memory serves me correctly, despite the fact that it had been accurately forecast from four or five days previously. Not so well forecast was the torrential rain that spoiled the August holiday across the south of Ireland in 1997. A beautiful weekend was forecast for the whole country; Donegal enjoyed just that but an east-west weather system pushed up over the southern half of Ireland and spoiled the weekend for many. Not a weather event, but memorable nonetheless was the small earthquake experienced along the east coast in 1984. I was working in Glasnevin at that stage, and distinctly felt the tremor as the metal press behind me rattled. My colleague Michael Cleary was at that moment delivering the 07.55 forecast on RTE. I often joked with him afterwards that he was the only weather forecaster that could truly make the earth move!!

If you had weather machine that could control the weather in Ireland for one day of the year, what synoptic pattern would you choose and why?

I like a well-established summer anticyclone anchored to the west of Ireland and directing a gentle north-west breeze down over the country. Nice dry air and not too hot...

Do you find predicting the weather patterns in and around Ireland a challenge?
Every weather forecaster working in Ireland is greatly challenged by the huge variation in weather we experience, and the rapid changes that can occur.

What part of Ireland do you consider to have the best climate?
Wexford of course, the sunny south east. Not just a marketing slogan but climatologically correct. It’s not the driest place (which would be Dublin) nor the warmest (Cork/Kerry on average) but in our damp climate getting 1600 -1700 hours of sunshine is enough to get my vote. No extremes of heat, though. Of all the weather stations in Ireland the one with the lowest Maximum Recorded Temperature was Rosslare.

What part of Ireland do you consider to have the worst climate?
I think I would find living in the west of Cavan or inland Leitrim (dull, wet, cold) rather challenging.

Do you enjoy extreme weather events?
I don’t necessarily enjoy getting wet or feeling cold any more than the next person, but of course there is a strong professional interest in any weather extremity.

What is your top favourite weather type?
A vigorous Atlantic storm rolling in from the west. These big storms have a grandeur and terrible beauty – they are a reminder of the tremendous power of nature and the relatively puny nature of mankind.

Weather forecasters are sometimes said to only as good as their last prediction. What forecast are you most proud of?
I don’t know if I could pick out one forecast. I am proud of the continuous, high-quality service provided by myself and my colleagues from the Forecast Office.

What was your least accurate forecast?

Plenty of forecasts have gone awry over the years. I remember back in the 1980’s forecasting some rain and sleet on a winter’s morning with the temperatures at about 2C. After the night shift I went home, had some breakfast, and turned on the radio for a few minutes before going to bed. I heard some woman who had phoned in to Gay Byrne from Naas to say it was snowing heavily there. I don’t think I got a good day’s sleep!

Do you still get nervous before a doing a public broadcast?
A little nervous beforehand, but the nerves disappear once I get going.

In addition to your own knowledge and experience, which NWP models do you consider when doing up a forecast? And which model do you yourself view as being superior?
We use the Hirlam (out to 48hrs) and the ECMWF models as the primary guidance in the Glasnevin office, though we usually consult the UKMO model and occasionally the German model, the GFS etc etc. Hirlam has become very reliable and can accurately pick out some surprisingly small features. The ECMWF model is superb and will rarely lead you astray. If I had to live with one model for guidance, it would be the ECMWF.

Can you ever envisage meteorology becoming a precise science?

No. The stochastic, or probabilistic, nature of many of the atmospheric processes will never allow complete precision in meteorology.

Rate your obsession with the weather out of 10.
About 7.I am happy to get completely away from weather matters on holiday etc.

All time favourite song/singer/band?
I am fairly wide-ranging in my musical tastes – everything from opera to U2. No one overarching favourite.

Favourite food? What is your speciality? Italian food will rarely disappoint, in my experience (that is, proper Italian food, not the sort that comes in jars or from pizzerias!). I do a good Italian meatballs in ragu. In summer it is hard to beat a fresh salad with a good strong garlic-infused dressing. Once you make your own salad dressing you will never buy the prepared type again – they are so thin and watery.

All time favourite film?
Un Coeur en Hiver.

If you were to come back as an animal, what animal would it be?
Hopefully something calm, dignified and gentle, with a long life-span. Maybe a giraffe. Statistically, if we get reincarnated, most of us are likely to come back as beetles....

What is your favourite joke?
The same as that of one A. Einstein. A physicist hung an inverted horseshoe over the door of his laboratory, for luck. He explained to colleagues that, of course, he did not believe in these things, but he heard that they often worked even if you did not believe in them!

What is your personal philosophy?
Try to avoid doing harm, and, even in a small way, try to make the world a better place for those with whom I come into contact.

Can perpetual motion ever be achieved?
No.When Niels Bohr suggested, in attempting to solve a difficulty in quantam mechanics that perhaps energy conservation did not hold at the sub-atomic level Paul Dirac replied that he would prefer to retain the principle of the Conservation of Energy even if it meant discarding the idea that atoms were composed of protons and electrons. Neither, of course, was necessary in the end to solve the problem in question. Conservation of energy/mass is absolute.

All time favourite novel?
The Name of the Rose by Umberto Eco

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?
No. And nor are most other Irish people this year, I suspect.

What’s on your Christmas Day menu?
Not turkey, which is not a favourite in our home. Spiced Beef and Ham; properly roast potatoes; some steamed vegetables. With a nice bottle of red wine.

What's your Christmas Wish?
For quiet, mild weather so that all the travellers can get home without any drama and so that the forecast office will not be under any excess pressure.

And finally, what would you most like to see under your Christmas tree this morning?
In our home, presents are always a secret, not to be opened until Christmas

Trogdor · 03-01-2011 01:22PM

Now unlocked.

thetonynator · 03-01-2011 02:16PM

Great interviews, thanks very much everyone involved!

Deep Easterly · 03-01-2011 03:14PM

M.T wrote:

All time favourite novel?
Those "M" novels by Samuel Beckett had an influence on me, I used to think in those boring linear non-Irish ways that plague most of mankind. By the way, I am working on my own novel, it is to be entitled "Slow-moving occlusion" and it's set in wartime Britain. I expect big sales and a very lucrative film contract. But I may not bother finishing it.

Hi M.T.

"Waiting For Godot", is this as close to reality as fiction can get do you think?

Or can it even be classed as fiction?

nacho libre · 03-01-2011 03:55PM

Hi weathergod/ M.T.

random question time:)

Do you like any British comedies from the 70s and 80s?

Do you play any musical instrument?

Are you familiar with this song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTBC7ckTWpo

Finally, can you deliver us another greenland express this winter?

i don't ask for much, i know!

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2011 10:37PM

Nacho libre,

I was a big Monty Python fan so very long ago (and you thought I was so rugged) ... as for the Euro, I'll take some without the mild in it.

As to musical instruments, I play keyboard including piano, organ and electronic keyboard. I haven't pursued it professionally beyond being a church musician for various periods of time and playing at a few concerts in Vancouver when Jean Vanier came to visit the local L'Arche homes. For those not familiar, L'Arche is a community "home and family" model of living arrangements for the mentally handicapped, with a Catholic foundation. Jean Vanier is a Canadian who now lives full time in France and directs this world-wide movement which has homes in almost all developed nations and some third world countries also. I mention this because it's a very inspiring concept that places our problems as "non-handicapped" adults in a totally different perspective, something that probably gave me a lot of peace when I hit the wall of frustration with the professional met community for about the third time in my ongoing mid-life crisis.

Wow, that was a non-sequitur, perhaps some politics for old MT then?

No, I hadn't heard the song you linked before, enjoyed it considerably. In the past two years, I have come to wish that I could speak English the proper way, now that I am so used to hearing Irish voices (again).

DE, as to Godot, I think the 240h GFS is as much near-reality as I can accept right now. My answer about the "M" novels was pretty lame because I just couldn't recall the exact titles, and my copy has gone missing. Since then I got some Beckett out of the local library and realize what I was recalling was Murphy, and the rest of the trilogy. I think now that I'm reading Beckett again after almost forty years in between, either I must have gone totally off the deep end, or as a younger guy I must have been pretty stunned, because now it just seems like the inside of my head instead of a glimpse into something totally different. I love the first line of Murphy:

The sun shone, having no alternative, on the nothing new.

I think there will be more winter scenes well into February and possibly even March, the arctic is still getting colder, having no alternative. Perhaps we'll do a Siberian express the next time and give old Greenland a rest.

Just a note too, I certainly don't take this "fame" very seriously, I still have pretty much the same set of challenges, but now I have a lot more friends, it seems, and that's a great help to my energy level. I am very much aware of being late in the second half so to speak, and needing a goal (maybe four). :cool:

Deep Easterly · 04-01-2011 09:28AM

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Nacho libre,

The sun shone, having no alternative, on the nothing new.

Thanks for that thoughtful response M.T

and that line quoted above is quite beautiful.

Perhaps Murphy inspired this great tune from Matt Johnson of THE THE:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh22k6PmfP0

aboyro · 04-01-2011 11:08AM

i come to the weather forum in search of perfect snow or surf conditions and i get greeted with my favorite luke kelly song and my favorite band thethe. hang%20loose.jpg

maquiladora · 04-01-2011 03:53PM

Thanks to all who got these great interviews for us.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2011 06:28PM

PM your suggestions for next year's interview to Fionagus and Deep Easterly.

I want to see somebody else on the hot seat.

Lumi · 04-01-2011 06:49PM

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

PM your suggestions for next year's interview to Fionagus and Deep Easterly.

I want to see somebody else on the hot seat.

:eek: Martin King and OwenC topping the poll so far. :pac:

BEASTERLY · 04-01-2011 08:57PM

Fionagus wrote: »

:eek: Martin King and OwenC topping the poll so far. :pac:

You could ask Martin to explain the crime against the state that is TV3 weather forecasts!

Interview with M.T and Gerald Flemming

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