New Dail / New Taoiseach

rossie1977 · 11-02-2020 2:07am

The chan chan man wrote: »

Of course they wont..because they won’t be here after SF whack up the corp. tax rates to fund their freestyler fanbase.

Why do you think all the big corporations are headquartered in California and not in Nevada and Wyoming which has zero corporate tax.

Cupatae · 11-02-2020 2:10am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

But I thought SF was "a vote for change"

You know that picture of the evolution of man, and one of em turns around say go back they ****ed up, this is like the political version of that

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 11-02-2020 7:32am

AllForIt wrote: »

I know I'm getting a bit off topic but imo Thatcher was a stunning female leader. MJM is similarly a strong willed leader. What kind of female politician do women want? Someone with hair extensions, softly spoken etc. Overtly feminine?

The fact is she is a woman no matter what her policies so one can hardly cry discrimination when here we have a female leader in the best performing party. But not a single congratulatory comment from women's rights activist's I've heard since late Saturday. Stunning silence actually.

Maybe many women are quiet on the topic because many of us don’t care about the ‘first female taoiseach’ milestone? I mean, do we make a big deal out of it or not? Surely not making a song and dance is the most sensible thing and just see how she gets on, like any Taoiseach, if she successfully gains the position.

ThunbergsAreGo · 11-02-2020 7:39am

olestoepoke wrote: »

You are talking as if this has never happened before. All the parties do it. Didn't FG get in on the back of promising to abolish USC.

And failure to deliver on that is an off mentioned stick used to beat them with.

Finty Lemon · 11-02-2020 7:55am

listermint wrote: »

Assume tax breaks and land availability.

The builders are here. They're just building offices and hotels due to the same tax breaks.

It's .... Money... Not resources.

Which specific tax breaks?

So tax incentives to the private sector work to generate economic activity ? SF should simply switch them to residential schemes in that case.

But the private investor will still need a dividend too. Rent control certainly have an adverse effect here so that will curtail investment.
The SF plan is taking shape- tax breaks on private residential construction and removal of rent control threat.

padd b1975 · 11-02-2020 7:57am

The chan chan man wrote: »

I would love to see SF faces when they get in the door, open up the accounts and go “oh boll0x!”

They’ve promised the sun, moon and stars and have numerous U-turns to make now.

I heard a guy on the radio last night saying a new minister isn't back out the gates of the park before they've had to compromise on something.

johnmcdnl · 11-02-2020 8:52am

dixiefly wrote: »

What sparked this thought was that someone said to me that they would vote Labour but they had no chance. To me I would far rather Labour than Sinn Fein as I feel they have a record of delivering a level of change - but one that is affordable.

We have a PRSTV system so if your favoured party is Labour go and vote for them even if 6ou think they have no chance. If they don't make it, then your vote moves into your second preferred candidate.

PommieBast · 11-02-2020 9:06am

scooby77 wrote: »

They'll try a hodge podge coalition first. You never know, Fine Gael might buy popcorn, leave them off and abstain. I would.

FG know it is game over for them. It was written all over their faces on the telly last night. Being junior in an FF+FG coalition that is still minority will not be appetising for them, and FG+SF won't happen..

Field east · 11-02-2020 9:07am

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Mary Lou should be allowed take up the mantle as Taoiseach. She won the election, time to deliver on change.

See post 219. The party that got the highest first preferences was SF - was it 24% . It won that element. . But you need 50%+ to win. But did the left win the so-called ‘change ‘ element. That’s what post 219 is about.

LuckyLloyd · 11-02-2020 9:09am

The chan chan man wrote: »

Of course they wont..because they won’t be here after SF whack up the corp. tax rates to fund their freestyler fanbase.

Their freestyler fan base: i.e. most people in all age cohorts up to 65?

Field east · 11-02-2020 9:50am

Gunmonkey wrote: »

I want them in Gov so maybe by budget time they will finally tell us how the €7-odd billion in tax cuts and spending will be paid for? I cant find one major tax hike mentioned that will cover this, and no "wealth tax" will cut it!

Whats MLMD's plan? The Apple €14 billion, which the EU countries have their eyes on? Has someone told her she cant get a £7 billion payment from Britain each year, this isnt the North!

I understand that the Apple profit re that 14bn is based on sales. Those sales were worldwide and therefor the sales point will determine how much each point ie country - will get. So will Ireland be lucky if it gets €50,000 of the €14bn.
It will be the EU ultimately that will decide how the 14bn will be shared out

foundation10 · 11-02-2020 10:02am

I hope she makes it as Taoiseach as I want to see how her policies will be translated to work on the ground. On housing the SF policy is to build 100K extra homes in next 5 years, if they get 100K houses done I do believe they will have achieved enough on this front to get them re-elected but I cannot see this happening without major changes to planning, zoning, building regs, incentives to construction sector/workers and mortgage guidelines all of which will take a strong government to change. She will also need to maintain growth in the economy alongside a successful EU/UK trade deal. There are a lot of changes needed to get this policy aspect alone completed and a lot of external factors which must be working in sync with the policy. Above all what we dont want at the end of the term is an overheated property market, seen that before and dont want to ever see it again.

Politelymad · 11-02-2020 10:05am

SF's and Mary Lou's problem is that their manifesto was written with four years in opposition in mind, where you could promise anything and then use it to beat the government over the head.

Now however they're faced with the potential nightmare of actually having to make it happen. In any coalition they'll have a hard time weaseling out of responsibility for the ministries of housing and health.

Mary Lou will talk a good fight over the next couple of weeks as she tries to dodge responsibility.

Retr0gamer · 11-02-2020 10:21am

Field east wrote: »

I understand that the Apple profit re that 14bn is based on sales. Those sales were worldwide and therefor the sales point will determine how much each point ie country - will get. So will Ireland be lucky if it gets €50,000 of the €14bn.
It will be the EU ultimately that will decide how the 14bn will be shared out

That money will have to come from Apple America. America see's that money as it's own. They will tax the crap out of it and we will get pittance.

So not only will we get bugger all money out of it, it will give the EU a stronger legal position to start attacking Ireland's constitutional right to set it's own corporation tax which would be a disaster for Ireland if that happened.

Put then if sinn fein got their way and increased the corporation tax to 17.5% to pay for their unicorn initiatives then they'd tank the economy faster than the EU ever could. But then again I'm pretty sure Sinn Fein made all those promises knowing they wouldn't have to deliver on any of them as they didn't field enough candidates.

BarryD2 · 11-02-2020 10:24am

Politelymad wrote: »

Mary Lou will talk a good fight over the next couple of weeks as she tries to dodge responsibility.

That's about it. We're lining up to a predictable dance where a supposedly left wing SF party 'talks' to other left wing parties but they will hopelessly disagree and she'll throw her hands in the air.

Then we'll have the palaver of SF and FF and FG and how they might and ultimately why they won't go along with it.

At which stage, if needs must we might see FF & FG pushed together with support of independents. They will do their best to resist this as it would be perfect for the other opposition parties.

Alternatively, the SF line will be to throw their hands up in the air again, no one will talk to them properly, they are being disrespected and they want another election....

At which point, the fickle Irish electorate will turf them out on their ears.

Inquitus · 11-02-2020 10:29am

Retr0gamer wrote: »

That money will have to come from Apple America. America see's that money as it's own. They will tax the crap out of it and we will get pittance.

So not only will we get bugger all money out of it, it will give the EU a stronger legal position to start attacking Ireland's constitutional right to set it's own corporation tax which would be a disaster for Ireland if that happened.

The 14bn is already under our control in escrow managed by BNY Melon Bank. Stop talking absolute bollox.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-picks-bny-mellon-to-manage-14bn-apple-escrow-account-1.3415272

blanch152 · 11-02-2020 10:31am

Inquitus wrote: »

The 14bn is already under our control in escrow managed by BNY Melon Bank. Stop talking absolute bollox.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-picks-bny-mellon-to-manage-14bn-apple-escrow-account-1.3415272

Yes, but if we spend it on Sinn Fein social welfare increases and Apple win their case, how do we pay it back?

Inquitus · 11-02-2020 10:33am

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, but if we spend it on Sinn Fein social welfare increases and Apple win their case, how do we pay it back?

That'll be SF's problem, if they are that stupid.

Buer · 11-02-2020 10:33am

BarryD2 wrote: »

At which stage, if needs must we might see FF & FG pushed together with support of independents. They will do their best to resist this as it would be perfect for the other opposition parties.

I'd be surprised if that came to pass. Surely this would be political suicide and there would be widespread condemnation of them joining to close ranks and maintain the status quo after the clear demand for new representation?

I imagine SF would be secretly delighted though as it would take the pressure off them and allow them regroup and aim for a much stronger representation in another election in the medium term future.

ArthurDayne · 11-02-2020 10:33am

Politelymad wrote: »

SF's and Mary Lou's problem is that their manifesto was written with four years in opposition in mind, where you could promise anything and then use it to beat the government over the head.

Now however they're faced with the potential nightmare of actually having to make it happen. In any coalition they'll have a hard time weaseling out of responsibility for the ministries of housing and health.

Mary Lou will talk a good fight over the next couple of weeks as she tries to dodge responsibility.

I guess it depends on what drives the SF vote — ideology, protest, or pragmatism. Some people vote SF because they are staunchly Republican and want Irish unity, some have seemingly voted for them as the most viable protest party, and others have seemingly voted for them simply because they like the sound of SF’s bread and butter promises.

Those who voted on pragmatic lines will obviously be the quickest to become disillusioned if SF fail to deliver. It then becomes a question of how ideologically entrenched the other voters are, and whether they will continue to toe the SF line loyally. Mary Lou might even end up looking to Boris Johnson for inspiration — a man who has provided a masterclass in creating a patriots versus defeatists narrative. She’s already banging the border poll drum very loudly.

The problem for SF though is, unlike Johnson, they will not have a significant section of the media cheerleading for them and helping to sustain any SF-driven narrative. But hey — that might soon change if SF actually end up being a success in power . . .

Inquitus · 11-02-2020 10:35am

Buer wrote: »

I'd be surprised if that came to pass. Surely this would be political suicide and there would be widespread condemnation of them joining to close ranks and maintain the status quo after the clear demand for new representation?

I imagine SF would be secretly delighted though as it would take the pressure off them and allow them regroup and aim for a much stronger representation in another election in the medium term future.

FF and FG combined got far more of the vote than SF, there is no clear demand for new representation, a Gov of the left, or whatever bolloxology people want to come up with, this nonsense has been spouted all weekend.

blanch152 · 11-02-2020 10:36am

jm08 wrote: »

This is rather a good analysis/breakdown of the Sinn Fein housing plan.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/election-2020-is-sinn-f%C3%A9in-s-housing-policy-credible-1.4163859

"However, like many manifesto promises, its delivery would be contingent on some rosy assumptions, and a dash of magical thinking to get around some pretty serious logistical hurdles. "

A line that pretty much sums up the whole Sinn Fein manifesto.

It is not just a magic money tree, it is a whole forest of them with unicorns dancing between the trees.

BigMo1 · 11-02-2020 10:47am

Inquitus wrote: »

FF and FG combined got far more of the vote than SF, there is no clear demand for new representation, a Gov of the left, or whatever bolloxology people want to come up with, this nonsense has been spouted all weekend.

SF have secured 37 seats with significantly less candidates than FF or FG. There is very obvious demand for new representation.

Quin_Dub · 11-02-2020 10:48am

Inquitus wrote: »

The 14bn is already under our control in escrow managed by BNY Melon Bank. Stop talking absolute bollox.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-picks-bny-mellon-to-manage-14bn-apple-escrow-account-1.3415272

Escrow is the key piece - Meaning , cannot be touched until things are sorted. So no-one could spend it even if they wanted to.

As has been said many many many times before though , even if the ruling goes against Apple and the money gets taken off them , if Ireland were due even one tenth of one percent of that total I'd be shocked.

Inquitus · 11-02-2020 10:49am

BigMo1 wrote: »

SF have secured 37 seats with significantly less candidates than FF or FG. There is very obvious demand for new representation.

24.5% of the vote for SF versus 43.1% for FF/FG I don't see a clear pattern for change there, I see voters voting for more centrist government.

Field east · 11-02-2020 10:49am

Inquitus wrote: »

The 14bn is already under our control in escrow managed by BNY Melon Bank. Stop talking absolute bollox.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-picks-bny-mellon-to-manage-14bn-apple-escrow-account-1.3415272

I think you doo not understand the concept of the escrow account. Yes, Irl has been ‘ instructed ‘ to manage it - and collect the €14Bn.
But where it ultimately goes will be ultimately decided legally by the EU courts and when all the appeals are addressed. Ireland has no control over its destination apart from appealing court decisions - where it is allowed

BarryD2 · 11-02-2020 10:49am

Buer wrote: »

I'd be surprised if that came to pass. Surely this would be political suicide and there would be widespread condemnation of them joining to close ranks and maintain the status quo after the clear demand for new representation?

I imagine SF would be secretly delighted though as it would take the pressure off them and allow them regroup and aim for a much stronger representation in another election in the medium term future.

Of course, but if it's essential for the country that someone takes responsibility they may be obliged to whether they like it or not. The trick from their POV would be to dress it up suitably so as to minimise image damage and throw SF into a poor a light as possible. Already we see this, we both parties basically saying 'it's over to you MaryLou'. If anyone heard the irritating Bríd Smith last night, they'll have quickly concluded that her agenda is to have FF/FG back in. About the only thing she'd agree with SF on is 'celebrating the war of independence' her words.

unit 1 · 11-02-2020 10:54am

Simple really, ff,fg, and greens is a stable option to keep country safe from sf silliness.
They could easily go together, improve(solve is impossible) the housing and other issues, let the sf fever burn itself out and revisit in 5 years time.
Confidence and supply, civil war politics, are for the bin.
Leo for 2 years, then hold nose and hand over to MM for the remainder.
The thoughts of an alternative lefty arrangement would keep it in check from splintering, but they have to be upfront and honest and bury any hatchets early.
All said and done, probably the best option.

Quin_Dub · 11-02-2020 10:56am

BigMo1 wrote: »

SF have secured 37 seats with significantly less candidates than FF or FG. There is very obvious demand for new representation.

True,

But how many voted "For" Sinn Fein as opposed to voting "Against" FF & FG ?

I'm not convinced about the overall strength of the mandate to be honest.

They did very well to hoover up the protest vote ahead of the usual run to Independents etc. , but it was a protest vote not a vote in tacit support of SF in my view.

How they hold on to that protest vote or even increase it is the big challenge for them.

Geuze · 11-02-2020 10:57am

Gunmonkey wrote: »

I want them in Gov so maybe by budget time they will finally tell us how the €7-odd billion in tax cuts and spending will be paid for? I cant find one major tax hike mentioned that will cover this, and no "wealth tax" will cut it!

Whats MLMD's plan? The Apple €14 billion, which the EU countries have their eyes on? Has someone told her she cant get a £7 billion payment from Britain each year, this isnt the North!

SF propose two major revenue-raising measures, see the end of their manifesto.

https://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2020/SF_GE2020_Manifesto.pdf

Stamp duty on commercial property increased from 7.5% to 12.5%.

I wonder do they account for the behavioural response? I doubt it.

Change in treatment of capital allowances = 700m+

New Dail / New Taoiseach

Comments