Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

Bass Reeves · 28-10-2019 9:38am

Who2 wrote: »

I’m going on that notion and could be completely wrong but the way things are panning out I’m of the belief there will have to be some sort of sub brought in and it will suit the government if we are restocked before any reference year or even use the mass exodus from suckling as an excuse to bring in something.

I have considered that but there are a few issues. It would first need EU approval and I am not so sure about that. there are a issue's first it would be considered a market support while the EU might turn a blind eye WTO might not. If it was bought in would have to be EU wide. The next issue is the structure, to encourage calf producers it first payment would have to be at 6-12 months. You would need to not allow support for Fr heifers. Would it be on Dairy bred bulls only, IMO you would need to include all beef crosses, this would discourage dairy farmers from selecting commercial quality bulls.

Finally you have the financing of it. At present we have over 1.4 million cows. Allow this to max out at 1.5 million. We assume a replacement rate of 300K Fr heifers is need every year.If the funding is on all 1.2 million dairy calves at 100/head it is 120 million. However that may not be enough to future proof the system 150/head ( 75 at 10 months and 75 at 22 months) it costs 180 million.

If you want to reduce suckler numbers from 900K cows to 500k at a sub rate of 150/head for 3 years for every cow reduced in a herd, it costs 60 million/year. It would take a 10-15% reduction in BPS to fund if it came from that direction, it would swallow a all of pillar two funding and need to be co-funded as well.

Who2 · 28-10-2019 10:01am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I have considered that but there are a few issues. It would first need EU approval and I am not so sure about that. there are a issue's first it would be considered a market support while the EU might turn a blind eye WTO might not. If it was bought in would have to be EU wide. The next issue is the structure, to encourage calf producers it first payment would have to be at 6-12 months. You would need to not allow support for Fr heifers. Would it be on Dairy bred bulls only, IMO you would need to include all beef crosses, this would discourage dairy farmers from selecting commercial quality bulls.

Finally you have the financing of it. At present we have over 1.4 million cows. Allow this to max out at 1.5 million. We assume a replacement rate of 300K Fr heifers is need every year.If the funding is on all 1.2 million dairy calves at 100/head it is 120 million. However that may not be enough to future proof the system 150/head ( 75 at 10 months and 75 at 22 months) it costs 180 million.

If you want to reduce suckler numbers from 900K cows to 500k at a sub rate of 150/head for 3 years for every cow reduced in a herd, it costs 60 million/year. It would take a 10-15% reduction in BPS to fund if it came from that direction, it would swallow a all of pillar two funding and need to be co-funded as well.

I wouldn’t be thinking it’s a sub on production but more a sub on reduction. I still have a lot of this years weanlings and have most of last years heifers. While I’m stocked out to the limit, I’ll be able to Carry into June of next year before I start to sweat. My idea is I’m either going to loose even more or gain well but I’m more confident of a reasonably strong rise by next April . I’m using this year also as year to upgrade all the cows that I’m not overly fond of.

K.G. · 28-10-2019 10:07am

I dont think there is any sub coming.if you didnt get a suckler sub under enda you are never going to get one.whats alot more likely is stocking limits and reductions.one way or another the number of heads are going to be reduced either by calves born ,export or life span of animals

amacca · 28-10-2019 10:40am

K.G. wrote: »

life span of animals

If lifespan is dictated by lowering age limits at slaughter then I'm of the opinion that increases the number of heads.....

if they relax that 30 month limit then my numbers would go down quite substantially

Bass Reeves · 28-10-2019 10:50am

K.G. wrote: »

I dont think there is any sub coming.if you didnt get a suckler sub under enda you are never going to get one.whats alot more likely is stocking limits and reductions.one way or another the number of heads are going to be reduced either by calves born ,export or life span of animals

I be the same opinion regarding subs on dairy bred cattle. I think we will need a Suckler reduction sub on next 12-18 months.

However reduction in lifespan equal faster finishing and higher levels of ration. This is incompatible with present beef prices. Even Teagasc are now pointing with there costings that 28 months 3nd summer finishing is the best option with Fr bullicks

amacca · 28-10-2019 11:08am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Even Teagasc are now pointing with there costings that 28 months 3nd summer finishing is the best option with Fr bullicks

leaving you holding the bag with a significant number of heads that are not ready in may, june and might not be so even with pumping......trying to limit losses offloading in the autumn

theres no winning at any game as far as I can see unless you have everything perfect and no need to invest in facilities + you have free grain from somewhere

Bass Reeves · 28-10-2019 11:11am

amacca wrote: »

leaving you holding the bag with a significant number of heads that are not ready in may, june and might not be so even with pumping......trying to limit losses offloading in the autumn

theres no winning at any game as far as I can see unless you have everything perfect and no need to invest in facilities + you have free grain from somewhere

I have always found that cattle killed from Kate May to late July off grass leave the highest margin 4 years out if 5

TooOldBoots · 28-10-2019 11:31am

The man that bred the Calf will have to raise him.
The suckler farmer shouldn't bother with the dairy calves as their is absolutely no money to be made from them at any price above zero as a calf.
The dairy industry will have to sort this out themselves. The idea of killing bobby calves is horrific, it would damage the Beef industry here not alone the dairy, and I don't think other farmers let alone the public would stomach that carry on.

jaymla627 · 31-10-2019 1:44pm

Glanbia pulling out of Greenfields and the sudden interest and press releases by other co-ops re the bull calf issue is making alot of sense now, Chinese whispers that rte have some pretty bad footage from farms last spring that would make a not so pleasant prime time special for the dairy industry

Dakota Dan · 01-11-2019 1:35pm

K.G. wrote: »

Good calves will still move,the trick is to have them good.the days of lamping the calf off at 10 days maybe disappearing.some of the steam for work is going out of lads a d you might see more hd/aa calves.rather than fr jex as fellas come near their potential herd size

I sold 3 for bull calves during the disaster last spring. Almost 6 weeks old 6lL whole milk a day since birth no scour or setbacks got €6/head.

jaymla627 · 02-11-2019 10:13am

You"d know the chap in the latest article on agriland was heading for a new employer, he could of at least told a few white lies re bull calves and facilities/labour on farm, reading between the lines it doesn't paint a good picture

GrasstoMilk · 02-11-2019 6:26pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

You"d know the chap in the latest article on agriland was heading for a new employer, he could of at least told a few white lies re bull calves and facilities/labour on farm, reading between the lines it doesn't paint a good picture

He was heading for a share milking job..
Not e everyone has a farm to go home to

Dakota Dan · 02-11-2019 8:43pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

You"d know the chap in the latest article on agriland was heading for a new employer, he could of at least told a few white lies re bull calves and facilities/labour on farm, reading between the lines it doesn't paint a good picture

7 hours a day milking 450 cows probably got to him.

Bass Reeves · 02-11-2019 9:18pm

Dakota Dan wrote: »

7 hours a day milking 450 cows probably got to him.

Turnover of labour seems high, this lad was managing it for a year and is leaving, the other farm worker is now taking over management of the farm. One Student counted as half a labour unit as well running the place. The owner was on sight there as well. The rota is 6 on 1 off for the spring and 11 on and three off for the summer. Even if only 8 hour days its 48/weeks for the spring and 44 hour weeks for rest of milking season. I cannot under stand this part

“At the weekends, we operate a one man show – one man is off and the other man does the relief milking on another farm,” said Cian.

Is one lad milking two farms the weekends. However it was no fun milking the weekends on this farm by yourself and it taking 7 hours/day. You be fair fed up looking at the rear end of cows. Owner intends to push it to the max 250 kgs of N/HA by going above 3 cows/HA. There will be plenty of fun if they have to start keeping calves to 5-6 weeks of age

jaymla627 · 02-11-2019 9:45pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Turnover of labour seems high, this lad was managing it for a year and is leaving, the other farm worker is now taking over management of the farm. One Student counted as half a labour unit as well running the place. The owner was on sight there as well. The rota is 6 on 1 off for the spring and 11 on and three off for the summer. Even if only 8 hour days its 48/weeks for the spring and 44 hour weeks for rest of milking season. I cannot under stand this part

“At the weekends, we operate a one man show – one man is off and the other man does the relief milking on another farm,” said Cian.

Is one lad milking two farms the weekends. However it was no fun milking the weekends on this farm by yourself and it taking 7 hours/day. You be fair fed up looking at the rear end of cows. Owner intends to push it to the max 250 kgs of N/HA by going above 3 cows/HA. There will be plenty of fun if they have to start keeping calves to 5-6 weeks of age

When the cows dont even get the luxury of a roof doesn't take a genius to work out how low down the pecking order the bull calf is, the student been tasked with rearing a few hundred calves really stood out not a single f**k is given in a set-up like that everything is disposable

older by the day · 02-11-2019 9:54pm

In fairness it will be a good day for farmer's when they get rid of derogation.

K.G. · 02-11-2019 10:00pm

older by the day wrote: »

In fairness it will be a good day for farmer's when they get rid of derogation.

The way things are going theres no shortage of land anyway

older by the day · 02-11-2019 10:04pm

K.G. wrote: »

The way things are going theres no shortage of land anyway

Bad land is making 5k for trees down here,

Keepgrowing · 02-11-2019 10:19pm

What I see happening is the majority of dairy farmers will synch and sex semen their heifers. They will AI dairy to cows bred in first 3 weeks then mop up with He/AA BULLS or AI.

Great plan but the cute ones will continue to breed all their stock to dairy as they’re going to get very scarce, just try buying in calf heifers at the moment. They’re making London

GrasstoMilk · 02-11-2019 10:21pm

Keepgrowing wrote: »

What I see happening is the majority of dairy farmers will synch and sex semen their heifers. They will AI dairy to cows bred in first 3 weeks then mop up with He/AA BULLS or AI.

Great plan but the cute ones will continue to breed all their stock to dairy as they’re going to get very scarce, just try buying in calf heifers at the moment. They’re making London

Dont be telling everyone!

Bass Reeves · 02-11-2019 10:28pm

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

He was heading for a share milking job..
Not e everyone has a farm to go home to

Not quite correct he hopes to go share milking there in the long term. IMO it is highly unlikely, farm owners will string along lads like him. Even if he goes share milking it is unlikely he will have the finance to lease farm in the medium term. If stocking rates are reduced to 2-2.5 cows/HA it will change the finance of all these outfits and it will also cubicles have to be roofed by 2028 it seems.

The big lads are grand as long as they can string lads along like him for another 4-5 years working 60 hour weeks to build up ''experience'' so they can share milk or set up a lease. IMO the dairy expansion is coming to its end there si a limit to the white gold.

Timmaay · 02-11-2019 10:34pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The big lads are grand as long as they can string lads along like him for another 4-5 years working 60 hour weeks to build up ''experience'' so they can share milk or set up a lease. IMO the dairy expansion is coming to its end there si a limit to the white gold.

Certainly no end to expansion around here, I could easily have doubled or tripled the milking herd here if only I was that bit more driven ha.

GrasstoMilk · 02-11-2019 10:43pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Not quite correct he hopes to go share milking there in the long term. IMO it is highly unlikely, farm owners will string along lads like him. Even if he goes share milking it is unlikely he will have the finance to lease farm in the medium term. If stocking rates are reduced to 2-2.5 cows/HA it will change the finance of all these outfits and it will also cubicles have to be roofed by 2028 it seems.

The big lads are grand as long as they can string lads along like him for another 4-5 years working 60 hour weeks to build up ''experience'' so they can share milk or set up a lease. IMO the dairy expansion is coming to its end there si a limit to the white gold.

Hod forbid anyone did a bit of hard work to get anywhere!

Seems to me that beef men want dairy farmers to subsidize there already subsidised farms now because they've let Larry away for so long, they realised after the 'no plan, beef plan' protests that they were never going to be able to change things there so now the dairy man has to pay because they actually do turn profit.
Theres very few guys in my locality that are actually full time beef farmers, it's an after work hobby for most

Buford T. Justice XIX · 02-11-2019 10:45pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

When the cows dont even get the luxury of a roof doesn't take a genius to work out how low down the pecking order the bull calf is, the student been tasked with rearing a few hundred calves really stood out not a single f**k is given in a set-up like that everything is disposable

Did you miss the part where the only cow not entering the parlour is waiting for a scratch? A sure sign of disposable cows alright.

And he stated that there was family labour on the farm in spring when needed and said nowhere that only the student was the only one looking after the calves.

visatorro · 02-11-2019 10:48pm

Keepgrowing wrote: »

What I see happening is the majority of dairy farmers will synch and sex semen their heifers. They will AI dairy to cows bred in first 3 weeks then mop up with He/AA BULLS or AI.

Great plan but the cute ones will continue to breed all their stock to dairy as they’re going to get very scarce, just try buying in calf heifers at the moment. They’re making London

Alot of stock heading north apparently. They must have faith in boris.

Although previous year's fodder was relatively tight looking at this time of the year and there was serious value in spring calving stock. Not looking like it this year.

jaymla627 · 02-11-2019 11:01pm

Timmaay wrote: »

Certainly no end to expansion around here, I could easily have doubled or tripled the milking herd here if only I was that bit more driven ha.

You"d of been ponying up the deeds of the homeplace to do it though, their is to many balls up in the air between derogation likely to be scrapped. bull calf issue and a new cap bringing in some wacky environmental measures and capping of stocking rates that would mean a crazy amount of land on "paper" would be needed to keep the sfp been paid out to landlords on rented ground to faciliate extra cows and keep your stocking rates right....
Their is no template at the minute that a solid business plan could be made that wouldn't be blown apart by Europe our co-ops doing a Arla on the calf issue

Bass Reeves · 02-11-2019 11:11pm

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

Hod forbid anyone did a bit of hard work to get anywhere!

Seems to me that beef men want dairy farmers to subsidize there already subsidised farms now because they've let Larry away for so long, they realised after the 'no plan, beef plan' protests that they were never going to be able to change things there so now the dairy man has to pay because they actually do turn profit.
Theres very few guys in my locality that are actually full time beef farmers, it's an after work hobby for most

What I posted has nothing to do with the beef side of the argument. He may work as hard as he likes I cannot see share milking happening in Ireland to any great extent. If it was going to happen it would have started already.

First off we are not NZ with a large number of farms capable of milking 300+ cows. The second hurdle is finance. Let's say he finds a farmer that will let him sharemilk 100 cows on a 300 cow farm. It's either one of two options he buys the 100 cows costing say 150 k or he tears them from calves. Even if it's a grow option where he starts with 40 and is allowed to breed them all for a few years to get to 100 cows. Remember in share milking he will have no wage the cows provide that.

Remember as well unless there is room for expansion the present owner must drop cow numbers for him to share milk. Then what is the goal to get to 100 cows and lease a farm? He has to get to finance this as well. But farmers leasing will steer towards established outfits. As well he will need to rent a farm that is set up. While in theory Greenfields showed it could be done try walking into a bank manager looking for even s 100k loan for to fund such a venture.

And even if you cross all them hurdles you better hope you pass the TB test that happens before you move to your leased farm.

I am not saying it cannot be done but it's not just a matter of hard work it about access to capital as well

mf240 · 02-11-2019 11:20pm

Are we calling 60 hours a long week now

mf240 · 02-11-2019 11:21pm

Bit of the old green eyed monster appearing in this thread me thinks.

mahoney_j · 02-11-2019 11:47pm

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

Hod forbid anyone did a bit of hard work to get anywhere!

Seems to me that beef men want dairy farmers to subsidize there already subsidised farms now because they've let Larry away for so long, they realised after the 'no plan, beef plan' protests that they were never going to be able to change things there so now the dairy man has to pay because they actually do turn profit.
Theres very few guys in my locality that are actually full time beef farmers, it's an after work hobby for most

Ffs what a naive comment

Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

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