Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
23-07-2018, 09:30   #61
Tae laidir
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Tallaght
Posts: 418
Oak Park didn't quite make a new max yesterday at 27.9.
Tae laidir is offline  
Advertisement
23-07-2018, 17:36   #62
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,399
IMT has moved back to 17,0 with a very warm 22nd (20.5 C).

MAX 27.9 (OP) didn't quite move the marker (28.1) and MIN (14.7) C at JC possibly a new record high (MIN remains 4.5).

PRC 3.6 mm (13%) moves the month back down to 25% of normal.

SUN 11.9 hours barely 36% of normal, month is now down to 124% (not even a guarantee of above 100% yet after the outrageous first half).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 23-07-2018 at 17:40.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(3) thanks from:
24-07-2018, 16:30   #63
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,399
Probably my last visit to this contest thread until scoring on August 2, as we are now set to leave the internet friendly home of our coastal relations and hit the road for the desert trip.

IMT through 23 days was back up to 17.1, with another very warm day on 23rd (18.8).

MAX of 27.7 (PP) and MIN (12.2, Mullingar) leave the monthly extremes at 28.1, 4.5.

PRC of 27.3 mm was almost a normal daily amount and allowed the monthly average to rise to the giddy height of 28%.

SUN of only 12.9 hours (39%) sees the month at its lowest point so far, 120%.

August thread is open earlier than usual, would appreciate if readers would keep that thread visible and record any new MAX or MIN for July. See you in August.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
30-07-2018, 18:43   #64
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,399
Have arrived in motel stay destination, weather has been ideal other than one day of drifting forest fire smoke cutting vis to 3 miles, skies mostly clear so far, distant storms last night well east of us. We are in St George UT, noon temp is 40 C. Most of the time we stay up in the hills and out of these hotter valleys but will be in Mesquite NV furoiusly updating contests next 3-4 days then back to holiday (my wife can continue the holiday theme as her internet habits are more those of a normal person) ... I was curious enough to check IMT looks to be at 16.9 after 29 days. Will log back on in 4-5 hours and update everything, lack of posts suggests no new MIN or MAX but maybe somebody could confirm that. Stay cool, oh okay, not as big a problem now right?
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(2) thanks from:
31-07-2018, 04:48   #65
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,399
So looking at the seven days 23rd to 29th in the ag report, in that interval the IMT was 16.4 which is still 0.8 above normal, the PRC was 174% of normal which increases the month to about 60%, and SUN was 93% which deflates the monthly average to about 119%. Will reboot the provisional scoring table when I get a better handle on how 30th and 31st are playing out the month, looks like my estimates while not abysmal could use some tweaking.

They do weather a little differently here in the desert, after a high of 45 C we now have gusty southeast winds and lightning all quads, trying to decide whether to drop rain or blow sand, or a bit of both, as the temperature plunges to the high 30s.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Advertisement
31-07-2018, 10:40   #66
Tae laidir
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Tallaght
Posts: 418
No, westerlies inhibiting any new min or max. And washing away my forecast.
Looks like you could do with a few Atlantic westerlies yourself.
Tae laidir is offline  
Thanks from:
31-07-2018, 15:24   #67
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,399
Settling for a few Pacificos by the pool...

updated hypothetical scoring with yesterday leaving the numbers as shown in the table, assuming little change after today. SUN estimate based on 122% after 30 days. A few will gain 3 points from lower IMT and lose 5 from higher PRC (no other scoring estimate changes). But you can gain or lose any combination from +8 to -8.

FORECASTER _______IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max 6th loc'n __ TOTAL

Estimated values ___ 16.7_28.1_ 4.5_068_120 __ 25.3_OP


Rameire ___________ 25 _ 08*_ 20 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 88

sryanbruen _________24 _ 20*_ 11 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 85



__ Consensus ______ 22 _ 10*_ 20 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 84


waterways ________ 20 _ 19*_ 15 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 7 _ 1 _______ 83

Jpmarn ___________ 24 _ 12*_ 19 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 81

JCX_BXC __________22 _ 13*_ 14 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 78

pauldry ___________ 23 _ 10*_ 13 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 3 +2 ____ 78

M.T. Cranium ______ 21 _ 14*_ 20 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 77

Kindred Spirit ______ 23 _ 10*_ 15 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 77

bsal ______________23 _ 06*_ 15 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 71

Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 03*_ 18 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 1 _______ 71

DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 16*_ 14 _ 07 _ 01 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 69

MrSkinner _________ 20 _ 11*_ 16 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 68

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___25 _ 15*_ 13 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 __ 73-6=67

john mac __________17 _ 17*_ 07 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 67

sunflower3 _________20 _ 13*_ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 6 _ 3 +1 ____ 65

Rikand ____________22 _ 04*_ 15 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 2 _______ 65

sdanseo ___________22 _ 00*_ 13 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 65

adam240610 _______17 _ 18*_ 00 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 64

Joe Public _________ 23 _ 05*_ 14 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 63

mickger844posts ____17 _ 08*_ 10 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 2 _ 3 _______ 62

200motels _________24 _ 02*_ 13 _ 15 _ 05 ___ 1 _ 2 _______ 62


__ NormaL ________ 13 _ 19*_ 10 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 3 _ 3 _______ 59


dasa29 ___________ 22 _ 10*_ 00 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 1 _______ 57

BLIZZARD7 ________ 15 _ 01*_ 12 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 48

______________________________________________________________________________


* MAX scoring from minimum progression. Highest raw score is 17 (sryanbruen).

Will adjust these scores tomorrow and confirm by Thursday, updating annual scoring at that time.

Congrats to rameire and sryanbruen for leading the way in what turned out to be quite a good month for our group consensus forecast.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______IMT _ MAX _MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 6th _ loc'n


BLIZZARD7 ________ 17.7 _ 33.0 _ 5.3 _ 047 _ 125 ___ 28.8 __ Oak Park

mickger844posts ____ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 27.9 __ Oak Park

john mac __________ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 ___ 26.1 __ Mount Dillon

MrSkinner _________ 17.2 _ 30.6 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 140 ___ 27.8 __ Shannon

sunflower3 _________17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 26.0 __ Oak Park

waterways _________17.2 _ 27.4 _ 5.0 _ 076 _ 111 ___ 25.4 __ Shannon

M.T. Cranium ______ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 28.9 __ Casement

sdanseo ___________17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 27.1 __ Oak Park

Dacogawa _________ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 072 _ 110 ___ 26.2 __ Moore Park

Rikand ____________17.0 _ 32.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 28.0 __ Mount Dillon

dasa29 ___________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 055 _ 130 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

JCX_BXC __________17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 ___ 26.3 __ Shannon


Consensus ________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 26.2 __ OP 3, Mtd, Shan 2, others 1*


Bsal ______________16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 ___ 26.0 __ Mount Dillon

Kindred Spirit ______ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 5.0 _ 070 _ 135 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

Joe Public _________ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 079 _ 139 ___ 28.9 __ Mount Dillon

pauldry ___________ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 082 _ 113 ___ 25.0 __ Oak Park

200motels _________16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 070 _ 145 ___ 28.8 __ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ___________ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 23.5 __ Shannon

sryanbruen ________ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 25.2 __ Oak Park

Rameire ___________16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 ___ 25.5 __ Oak Park

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 040 _ 128 ___ 24.8 __ Mullingar

DOCARCH _________ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 045 _ 165 ___ 26.7 __ Oak Park

adam240610 _______15.9 _ 29.1 _ 6.8 _ 060 _ 120 ___ 26.2 __ Mount Dillon


NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 _ see text below
______________________________________________________________________________


NormaL for the daily max is set at 23.0 since most stations have average near 20, and normally some location would hit 23.

Scoring for NormaL location will be obvious locations 3, frequent locations 2, sometimes locations 1, and almost never in July locations 0.

* Scoring for Consensus location will depend on most popular choices, 3 for Oak Park, 2 for Mount Dillon or Shannon, 1 for any other chosen, and 0 for any location not chosen (this was noted in the table later and that caused the second edit at 1355h 4th).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 02-08-2018 at 13:16. Reason: slight changes to IMT and PRC scoring
M.T. Cranium is offline  
31-07-2018, 22:57   #68
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,399
Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to July)

rank _FORECASTER _______ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _JUN _ JUL __TOTAL _ JUN rank __ best 5/7 (rank)

01 _Pauldry______________ 73 __ 58 __ 89 __ 48 __ 76 __ 59 __ 78 ___ 481 ___ 01 ____ 375 (1)

(02) _ Con Sensus ________ 73 __ 67 __ 69 __ 51 __ 71 __ 54 __ 84 ___ 460 ___(04) ____364 (t-2)

02 _Dacogawa ____________71 __ 67 __ 70 __ 67 __ 63 __ 52 __ 71 ___ 461 ___ 03 ____ 346 (t 4)
t03_Rikand ______________ 66 __ 64 __ 62 __ 61 __ 74 __ 65 __ 65 ___ 457 ___ 02 ____ 334 (12)
t03_sryanbruen ___________56 __ 71 __ 65 __ 60 __ 74 __ 46 __ 85 ___ 457 ___ 04 ____ 355 (3)
05 _Jpmarn ______________71 __ 61 __ 49 __ 57 __ 68 __ 60 __ 81 ___ 447 ___ 10 ____ 341 (6)
06 _waterways ___________ 81 __ 34 __ 51 __ 73 __ 76 __ 46 __ 83 ___ 444 ___t07 ____ 364 (2)
07 _DOCARCH ____________63 __ 62 __ 75 __ 61 __ 68 __ 42 __ 69 ___ 440 ___ 05 ____ 337 (t 8)
08 _Rameire _____________ 52 __ 56 __ 67 __ 49 __ 76 __ 44 __ 88 ___ 432 ___ 14 ____ 339 (7)
09 _M.T. Cranium _________ 60 __ 45 __ 52 __ 56 __ 86 __ 49 __ 77 ___ 425 ___ 13 ____ 331 (14)
10 _MrSkinner ____________73 __ 64 __ 72 __ 42 __ 69 __ 36 __ 68 ___ 424 ___ 10 ____ 346 (t 4)
11 _mickger844posts ______ 75 __ 77 __ 69 __ 42 __ 54 __ 44 __ 62 ___ 423 ___t07 ____ 337 (t 8)
12 _Tae laidir _____________78 __ 53 __ 63 __ 47 __ 61 __ 52 __ 67 ___ 421 ___ 11 ____ 322 (15)
t13_Joe Public ____________ 35 __ 62 __ 48 __ 81 __ 61 __ 66 __ 63 ___ 414 ___ 12 ____ 333 (13)
t13_JCXBXC ______________34 __ 72 __ 54 __ 43 __ 77 __ 56 __ 78 ___ 414 ___t16 ____ 337 (t 8)
t15_BLIZZARD7 ___________27 __ 73 __ 46 __ 70 __ 92 __ 52 __ 48 ___ 408 ___ 09 ____ 335 (11)
t15_sunflower3 ___________ 68 __ 56 __ 63 __ 58 __ 57 __ 41 __ 65 ___ 408 ___ 15 ____ 311 (17)
17 _sdanseo _____________ 45 __ 61 __ 57 __ 52 __ 57 __ 64 __ 65 ___ 401 ___t16 ____ 304 (21)

(18) NormaL _____________ 75 __ 52 __ 48 __ 71 __ 63 __ 31 __ 59 ___ 399 ___(09) ___ 320 (16)

18 _Kindred Spirit _________59 __ 56 __ 55 __ 28 __ 66 __ 57 __ 77 ___ 398 ___ 19 ____ 315 (16)
19 _Bsal _________________63 __ 49 __ 71 __ 38 __ 56 __ 34 __ 71 ___ 382 ___ 21 ____ 310 (18)
20 _dasa29 ______________ 69 __ 40 __ 83 __ 43 __ 54 __ 35 __ 57 ___ 381 ___ 18 ____ 306 (20)
21 _200motels ____________36 __ 65 __ 47 __ 49 __ 85 __ 32 __ 62 ___ 376 ___ 20 ____ 307 (19)
22_john mac _____________ 48 __ 58 __ 58 __ 42 __ 63 __ 39 __ 67 ___ 375 ___ 22 ____ 294 (23)
23 _Lumi ________________ 54 __ 54 __ 62 __ --- __ 77 __ 55 __ ---- __ 302 ___ 23 ____ 302 (22)
24 _Artane2002 ___________--- __ --- __ ---__ 59 __ 57 __ 47 __ ---- ___163 ___ 24
25 _Adam240610 _________ --- __ --- __ 56 __ --- __ ---__ --- __ 64 ___ 120 ___ 25
________________________________________________________________________________

Pauldry now the lone forecaster ahead of relentless Con Sensus, but a tight race nevertheless with not much separation in the chase pack.
________________________________________________________________

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 02-08-2018 at 13:55. Reason: a few slight changes to July scores
M.T. Cranium is offline  
01-08-2018, 13:26   #69
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,399
The IMT actually finished on 16.7 (16.72) which requires a one point adjustment to scores.

PRC may be closer to 68% than my estimate of 65% but I will confirm that from MS.

Assuming these to be the only changes, I am editing the tables slightly.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(4) thanks from:
Advertisement
02-08-2018, 12:57   #70
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: across from the neighbours
Posts: 9,399
I just found the July MS which confirms IMT, MAX, MIN and with one station not reporting, SUN.

The PRC is adjusted to 70% -- some scores will change by 1, a few will remain on previous points.

Will try to edit the tables before edit function expires, no further report here means scoring is adjusted (after 1400h).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(4) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet