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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Lightning over Maynooth

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Storm over North Kildare. Anvil with the developing updraft at the rear

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    upload image host


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Those ominous dark clouds heading this way (to Dublin 16) but looks like mostly de-electrified now. 6.8mm here from the last hail/rain shower.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,355 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Those ominous dark clouds heading this way (to Dublin 16) but looks like mostly de-electrified now. 6.8mm here from the last hail/rain shower.

    Yeah we've had them through District 15! Just sporadic moderate rain showers, I haven't noticed any hail in the past hour or so.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cell still firing away off Wexford and a cell off Skerries.

    Record of today.

    LightningMaps.org

    Blitzortung.org


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    The welsh were hoping for some ‘Irish Imports’ earlier lol


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Strong radar return E of Athlone, been growing in size, don't know if there is enough instability to create a few sparks.

    Edit: Just looked at radar again and it seems to have rained itself out.

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    Not before producing a sferic :pac:

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Hold the phone! More thunder here in Kildare now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    pad199207 wrote: »
    The welsh were hoping for some ‘Irish Imports’ earlier lol


    F279-D101-A468-4405-B44-E-A9-C081-B1-B491.jpg

    I could hear those storms here on the south Wicklow coast,it was pretty constant! Would have been a good light show if it were dark.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Hold the phone! More thunder here in Kildare now

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Crickey the whole house just lit up here!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Crickey the whole house just lit up here!

    Where might here be !!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Hold the phone! More thunder here in Kildare now

    Looks very dark down that direction


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Where might here be !!!

    Kildare


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,430 ✭✭✭ando


    Managed to get two lightning flashes on camera :) West Dublin earlier today

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,415 ✭✭✭Trebor176


    Heavy rain again now in Clondalkin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 470 ✭✭catrat12


    Got woken up by a massive bang last night at 3 am the house shook the baby jumped it was unreal
    It was just one bang I checked around the house and attic and can’t see anything
    All I can think is thunder now there was no flash or a continuous bang now I live in Dublin mountains near three rock so could of been someone out after deer but seemed too loud to be a gunshot
    Did anyone else hear thunder in area or a way of looking up lighting strikes I just don’t get it


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  • Registered Users Posts: 265 ✭✭sumtings


    catrat12 wrote: »
    Got woken up by a massive bang last night at 3 am the house shook the baby jumped it was unreal
    It was just one bang I checked around the house and attic and can’t see anything
    All I can think is thunder now there was no flash or a continuous bang now I live in Dublin mountains near three rock so could of been someone out after deer but seemed too loud to be a gunshot
    Did anyone else hear thunder in area or a way of looking up lighting strikes I just don’t get it

    For what it's worth the netweather lightning archive doesn't have any strikes for 3am today. I don't know that that rules it out.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The radar shows light showers and no sferics showing up at around that time catrat12.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 470 ✭✭catrat12


    The radar shows light showers and no sferics showing up at around that time catrat12.


    xoisu3k.gif
    Cheers
    Actually can’t figure it out
    The only thing left is a poacher and the echo of a gunshot but really was too loud unless using a canon


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Going through the models there is a big spread of tracks and timings of LP approaching from the W / NW for Sat night/ Sunday. Will have to see how the models align on this. Some showing it quite wet and windy and with the fast Jet overhead giving lots of shear and vorticity depending on the track, and showing lower down areas of convergence and low level shear. Looking like a possibility of Thundery heavy falls of rain from early Sun morning according to ECM and ICON . High Theta E readings , high dew points . Depends a lot on if the warm air mass is swept aside during Sunday or if it lingers as the day heats up. An interesting one to watch unfold. Next week likewise shows days of interest for convective weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Potential for some huge thunderstorms across the continent next week as well with low pressure digging south. Always interesting enviously watching webcams across Germany/Benelux when they get these events

    ECM1-216_yuz0.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    I thought today would generate some action for the top half of the country. Unless there has been and I missed it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Possible squall line developing, currently in the East Midlands, moving East.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Interested in the Lp core as it approaches the SW and more so W on Sun evening with a cold upper pool of air and strong vorticity.

    Wondering if the topography in the W could aid lift helping to fire off some lightning. Should become clearer tomorrow.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Might see some sferics showing up along Atlantic coasts overnight although low possibility, if they do it will be mostly over the sea.

    Tomorrow just a low chance of activity up along the W / NW coasts and again if there is lightning it will be mostly over the sea I reckon.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Thinking might see thunderstorms develop with heavy rain in the area shaded this evening.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,181 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Kudos to you if you're right Meteorite, you've been flagging this for two days now and your hunches are usually good :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Kudos to you if you're right Meteorite, you've been flagging this for two days now and your hunches are usually good :)

    In the end only a few sferics showed up, there was more activity further N in Scotland. By the looks of it the rainfall in Connaught and Ulster wasn't as heavy also.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Two nice lil captures of last weeks storm. Hopefully some more action over the coming days.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Hefty Downpours here in Kildare now


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Welcome back Ian. Great shots


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Best of the sunlight and diurnal heating in the Southern half of the country tomorrow. Lapse rates best here with the cold air aloft . Not much LLS and very little if any DLS but with enough clear spells to allow convection to mature could be seeing some sporadic heavy downpours in the afternoon with the chance of isolated thunderstorms.

    Also an area of interest would be along Southern coasts later in the afternoon where CAPE may be at it's highest with the aid of convergence. The models are showing the Cork coast especially as an area that could get active in the afternoon.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yeah thinking that convection might mature from a NW direction and with the extra bit of afternoon heat along the S coast ,especially in Cork aided by coastal convergence , might produce some lightning activity along the coast , maybe more so over water.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Thurs, IMO, looking like a potentially active day for convection with heavy thundery showers .

    Again cold pool of air aloft, diurnal heating aided by local convergence overland with modest LLS and the passage of a trough could produce the sparks.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Big shower of hail a few minutes ago here in Tralee . Towering clouds out there today.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Terrific video here showing some great examples of 'positive lightning' strikes from an active storm in the US a couple of years back:

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Plenty of convection with some hail and plenty of heavy rain showers today . Heavy showers along southern coasts with a few sferics showing up but not a lot.

    Possibility for convection to become charged up again tomorrow with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and a negative tilted trough being forecast by estofex giving instability. Little in the way of deep layer shear but some Low level shear and areas of convergence. Cool pool of air aloft with some breaks in the cloud letting the sun through long enough could aid the development of convection producing sporadic thunderstorms me thinks. Messy enough though. Slim pickings lately on the wrong side of marginal.

    Nothing like what's shown in the excellent video posted by Oneric 3 , will have to go to Oklahoma for that :)

    Will see what tomorrow brings.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    M8w9Muh.png



    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 06 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 07 Jun 2019

    ISSUED 06:17 UTC Thu 06 Jun 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper low west of the British Isles will elongate and sharpen, with cold mid-levels creating steep mid-level lapse rates. Early very active elevated thunderstorms over the central North Sea will tend to weaken somewhat as they continue to nudge north towards or to the east of Shetland.


    Elsewhere, diurnal heating will yield 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE with scattered showers developing, particularly aided by areas of low-level convergence. By the afternoon, dewpoints of 6-8C seem likely (GFS typically too moist).
    A few thunderstorms will be possible - instability will be greater over Ireland (due to proximity to upper cold pool) but with weaker shear, so more "pulse-type" convection seems likely here, whereas over Britain instability will be less but with stronger shear on the forward-side of the upper trough, lending to slightly better cell organisation. As such, have issued a couple of low-end SLGTs to better highlight areas with reasonable multi-model agreement for a few sporadic lightning strikes.

    Some uncertainty exists over Northern Ireland, depending on how much cloud may linger courtesy of the nearby wrap-around occlusion. However, the slack regime would support the development for scattered showers and/or a few thunderstorms should cloud breaks be sufficient for reasonable surface heating to occur - this area will need monitoring for a potential upgrade.

    On Thursday night, a rapidly deepening area of low pressure will approach from Biscay, pushing frontal rain northwards across the English Channel into S / SW England. There may be some pockets of embedded elevation convection, but any lightning will probably fairly isolated.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    As much CAPE as has been predicted in a while. Will see if it produces thunderstorms.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Convection getting going quite widely now with sferics reported inland from the south coast and also in Donegal


  • Registered Users Posts: 1 DrSnOU


    Good amount of small hail at the UCD campus.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Thunder in Dublin 16.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 215 ✭✭Misguided1


    Big rap of thunder in Dublin 2


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Massive clap in the CC


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Hearing thunder in city centre sky is black


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