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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020
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Strong radar return E of Athlone, been growing in size, don't know if there is enough instability to create a few sparks.
Edit: Just looked at radar again and it seems to have rained itself out.
Not before producing a sferic :pac:
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CheersMeteorite58 wrote: »The radar shows light showers and no sferics showing up at around that time catrat12.
Actually can’t figure it out
The only thing left is a poacher and the echo of a gunshot but really was too loud unless using a canon0 -
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Interested in the Lp core as it approaches the SW and more so W on Sun evening with a cold upper pool of air and strong vorticity.
Wondering if the topography in the W could aid lift helping to fire off some lightning. Should become clearer tomorrow.
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PukkaStukka wrote: »Kudos to you if you're right Meteorite, you've been flagging this for two days now and your hunches are usually good
In the end only a few sferics showed up, there was more activity further N in Scotland. By the looks of it the rainfall in Connaught and Ulster wasn't as heavy also.0 -
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Best of the sunlight and diurnal heating in the Southern half of the country tomorrow. Lapse rates best here with the cold air aloft . Not much LLS and very little if any DLS but with enough clear spells to allow convection to mature could be seeing some sporadic heavy downpours in the afternoon with the chance of isolated thunderstorms.
Also an area of interest would be along Southern coasts later in the afternoon where CAPE may be at it's highest with the aid of convergence. The models are showing the Cork coast especially as an area that could get active in the afternoon.
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Yeah thinking that convection might mature from a NW direction and with the extra bit of afternoon heat along the S coast ,especially in Cork aided by coastal convergence , might produce some lightning activity along the coast , maybe more so over water.
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Terrific video here showing some great examples of 'positive lightning' strikes from an active storm in the US a couple of years back:
New Moon
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Plenty of convection with some hail and plenty of heavy rain showers today . Heavy showers along southern coasts with a few sferics showing up but not a lot.
Possibility for convection to become charged up again tomorrow with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and a negative tilted trough being forecast by estofex giving instability. Little in the way of deep layer shear but some Low level shear and areas of convergence. Cool pool of air aloft with some breaks in the cloud letting the sun through long enough could aid the development of convection producing sporadic thunderstorms me thinks. Messy enough though. Slim pickings lately on the wrong side of marginal.
Nothing like what's shown in the excellent video posted by Oneric 3 , will have to go to Oklahoma for that
Will see what tomorrow brings.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 06 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 07 Jun 2019
ISSUED 06:17 UTC Thu 06 Jun 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper low west of the British Isles will elongate and sharpen, with cold mid-levels creating steep mid-level lapse rates. Early very active elevated thunderstorms over the central North Sea will tend to weaken somewhat as they continue to nudge north towards or to the east of Shetland.
Elsewhere, diurnal heating will yield 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE with scattered showers developing, particularly aided by areas of low-level convergence. By the afternoon, dewpoints of 6-8C seem likely (GFS typically too moist).
A few thunderstorms will be possible - instability will be greater over Ireland (due to proximity to upper cold pool) but with weaker shear, so more "pulse-type" convection seems likely here, whereas over Britain instability will be less but with stronger shear on the forward-side of the upper trough, lending to slightly better cell organisation. As such, have issued a couple of low-end SLGTs to better highlight areas with reasonable multi-model agreement for a few sporadic lightning strikes.
Some uncertainty exists over Northern Ireland, depending on how much cloud may linger courtesy of the nearby wrap-around occlusion. However, the slack regime would support the development for scattered showers and/or a few thunderstorms should cloud breaks be sufficient for reasonable surface heating to occur - this area will need monitoring for a potential upgrade.
On Thursday night, a rapidly deepening area of low pressure will approach from Biscay, pushing frontal rain northwards across the English Channel into S / SW England. There may be some pockets of embedded elevation convection, but any lightning will probably fairly isolated.0 -
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG3JF7GRfRE
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