|June 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 23-06-2020 8:53pm

Maybe not ... day two of the bonus question brought 121.7 mm rain which combined with day one (24.3) leaves the total at 146.0 mm, almost three times normal so far (275% approx). Today looks rather similar so we will be well on the way to a normal outcome even if later rainfalls are sparse.

M.T. Cranium · 24-06-2020 9:43pm

On day three of the bonus period, 104.6 mm fell around the grid, leaving the running total at 250.6 mm which compares to the estimated normal of (3 x 26.4) 79.2 mm, now 317% of normal.

If no further rain fell, this would represent just under 95% of normal for the ten days, but as we know further rain is likely. Looking at the forecasts I could almost score this already.

The only forecasters above 150% (which I think is the very least this will achieve) is Pauldry at 160% and the only other forecast higher than my 105% (shared with JPmarn) is 130% for Adam240610. So it's almost a foregone conclusion now that ten points will be heading to Pauldry and Adam240610, nine to myself and JPmarn, and the rest of the scoring in pairs (including lowest two at zero points). Looks like eight points for 200motels and Joe Public with forecasts in the high 80's. etc ... not sure why our general bias was towards a dry end to the month but it is what it is, probably that pattern we have been in for many months with a warming trend near end of month, and warmth usually being dry? Pauldry made a pretty good edit there, must say.

(Just in case the further rain proves very slight, Pauldry does need the total to reach 132.6% to score the advertised ten points, and Adam240610 needs a bit more to guarantee ten points, the outcome must be 117.6% or higher for his chances. The two at 105% still need perhaps 2% more to edge past those in the 80s currently. These amounts (including Pauldry) seem locked in to me at this point. The only issue to be settled would be whether or not reality goes past all of our forecasts or all but one.

M.T. Cranium · 25-06-2020 2:12pm

Day four of the rainfall bonus period, just 12.5 mm over the grid, bringing total to 263.1 mm, about 250% of the normal for the period, and guaranteeing an outcome of at least 98% of normal in the absence of further rainfall.

I expect the outcome to be close to Pauldry's guess of 160% and possibly a bit higher.

M.T. Cranium · 26-06-2020 11:04pm

The delayed report on day five (I meant to post this at 0830 when I first figured out the number then I got doing something else) ... only 1.9 mm fell on the 25th (pre-midnight in case that sounds low to you), that takes us to 265.0 mm, whereas normal would be just about half of that. So we are near 200% of normal now, and have guaranteed an outcome of 100%. I would estimate day six (mostly this morning) dropped 40 mm on the grid, will confirm that in the morning. So we are actually at about 115% as you're reading this. Tomorrow will no doubt add at least 10% more to that.

M.T. Cranium · 27-06-2020 9:15am

Day six of the bonus rainfall period seals the fate of all ... 45 mm additional rain for a total now of 310 mm, compared to normal value estimated to be (6 x 26.4) 158.4 mm. That means we are guaranteed an outcome of at least 120% and stand now just below 200 per cent (198). With estimates for today through Tuesday of 100 mm total for the grid, the outcome is going to surpass even Pauldry's grim estimate (ironically he's had even more locally).

Will continue to track this but the outcome seems inevitable now.

M.T. Cranium · 28-06-2020 1:41pm

Okay so on day seven of the bonus rainfall, 123.9 mm fell, a total of 433.9 mm which is about 240% of normal. I am able to check that against the ag met report which shows 242% for the grid. Without any further rain that would be about 170% of normal but of course it's raining hard in the north today. So we are now officially at the point where the highest forecast is going to be closest to the mark.

M.T. Cranium · 29-06-2020 7:42pm

Update on week four (or weak fore) and the bonus rainfall melodrama.

First the regular items ... the IMT is now on 13.8, with a rather warm week that averaged 15.1, 0.8 above normal.

MAX and MIN remain 27.1 and 2.5

PRC has reached 134% after a very wet week with 258% of normal.

SUN only 78% of normal, the past week managing only 71% (428/600).

The bonus rainfall continues to fill the bucket with another 66.9 mm in the grid, for a total now of 500.8 mm, which is about 230% of normal. This guarantees an outcome of at least 180%.

Finner Camp and Newport had over 40 mm each yesterday, but they aren't among the eleven stations that form our PRC grid, if they were, PRC would now be over 150% and the bonus would be over 300%.

M.T. Cranium · 30-06-2020 11:06pm

On day nine, 22.6 mm fell over the grid, bringing the total to 523.4 mm. Normal for nine days would be about 238 mm so this is around 220 per cent. Final reports on most parameters will appear tomorrow, perhaps with provisional scoring.

The July contest thread is open (on time deadline looms at 0300h).

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2020 2:47pm

Here are the final numbers or estimates. Will check these tomorrow against the MS and score the contest then.

IMT 13.8 C.

MAX 27.1 MIN 2.5

PRC about 130%

SUN about 75%

The bonus rainfall added 10.4 mm to finish at 533.8 mm. Normal was estimated to be 264 mm. The outcome is about 205% of normal.

John mac · 01-07-2020 4:33pm

Still dont get the bonus question ..

this its the way i had it in my ikkle head;
I was taking the percentage of the months total rainfall that fell in 10 days .
so whatever the actual (not normal) total was for the month =100%
i was thinking of that 100% how much would fall in the ten days ..

Joe Public · 01-07-2020 7:49pm

MTC doesn't do Penguin books - tis a pity

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2020 7:17am

Sorry about the confusion on that question, I made several attempts to explain which I don't think were entirely successful all round, but here's another way of looking at what was sought ... the last ten days of the month were being treated like a month, and I was looking for the rainfall trend for the period relative to what would normally fall. I made the assumption that the rainfall rates in that interval are similar to the blend of June and July which in any case have similar monthly averages at all the stations. The weekly ag reports seem to make this same assumption (they also give you rainfalls in terms of percentages of normal for seven days rather than the ten that I had in the bonus).

So maybe I thought it was a more familiar concept since we have had weekly reports on our threads for many years now and these contain statements like "third week wet, 250% of normal rainfall fell" applying to that specific period.

Anyway, if most people thought it meant a different thing, then the answers are still probably scaled to the same general concept, would it be wet or dry? And it was wet, no getting around that. FWIW, I would say about half the month's rain fell in the ten days and perhaps as much as 60%. But that wasn't the answer sought.

I could add that based on rainfall data sets that I work with (that run for decades) the average daily precip tends to vary more than average daily temperature, but it is believed to be a random process, driven by the random occurrence of a few large events on certain days that miss other nearby days. Over the course of a year the daily precip averages may form a recognizable pattern but over a few consecutive days they tend to bounce up and down quite a bit, if the daily average for a month is 2.5 mm then it would not surprise me to see days with averages below 1.8 or above 3.2 even after a century of observations. This probably begins to smooth out on a weekly or ten day scale and certainly fades out of the picture when you average daily amounts for consecutive months.

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2020 1:52pm

From the MS have confirmed our June numbers as:

IMT 13.8

MAX 27.1

MIN 2.5

PRC 128%

SUN 75%

Bonus ... 220% of normal rain 21-30

So that brings about the scoring for June which follows ...

June 2020 Contest Scoring

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus__ TOTALS

Adam240610 __________24 _ 19 _ 12 _ 09*_ 06__10 _____ 80

Pauldry ______________ 17 _ 14 _ 15 _ 15*_ 08__10 _____ 79

___ NormaL __________ 23 _ 16 _ 10 _ 13*_ 08 __ 8 _____ 78

M.T. Cranium _________ 21 _ 14 _ 13 _ 12*_ 06 __ 9 _____ 75

Sunflower3____________24 _ 11 _ 16 _ 08*_ 05 __ 7 _____ 71

DOCARCH ____________ 25 _ 20 _ 13 _ 04*_ 04 __ 3 _____ 69

200motels ____________23 _ 15 _ 06 _ 06*_ 07 __ 8 _____ 65

___ Con Sensus ________23 _ 07 _ 15 _ 08*_ 06 __ 5 _____ 64

dasa29 _______________23 _ 06 _ 15 _ 12*_ 04 __ 3 _____ 63

Jpmarn _______________24 _ 14 _ 00 _ 10*_ 05 __ 9 _____ 62

Dacogawa ____________ 17 _ 03 _ 11 _ 11*_ 10 __ 7 _____ 59

mickger844posts _______12 _ 10 _ 15 _ 13*_ 06 __ 3 _____ 59

Joe Public ____________ 24 _ 00 _ 11 _ 14*_ 02 __ 8 _____ 59

john mac _____ (-2) ____24 _ 07 _ 06 _ 12*_ 06 __ 4 _ 59-2=57

sryanbruen ___________ 22 _ 12 _ 05 _ 05*_ 07 __ 3 _____ 54

KIndred Spirit _________ 18 _ 00 _ 20 _ 05*_ 04 __ 6 _____ 53

Artane2002 ___________ 20 _ 08 _ 09 _ 03*_ 06 __ 4 _____ 50

MrStonewall ___________25 _ 00 _ 11 _ 07*_ 04 __ 3 _____ 50

Bsal _________________ 22 _ 06 _ 05 _ 08*_ 06 __ 2 _____ 49

Mrskinner _____ (-1) ___ 20 _ 05 _ 12 _ 03*_ 03 __ 7 _ 50-1=49

Appledrop ____________ 05 _ 06 _ 14 _ 04*_ 10 __ 7 _____ 46

Tae laidir _____________ 19 _ 03 _ 13 _ 02*_ 04 __ 4 _____ 45

waterways ____________ 16 _ 01 _ 16 _ 02*_ 01 __ 6 _____ 42

Rikand _______ (-3) ____18 _ 00 _ 05 _ 12*_ 04 __ 5 _ 44-3=41

Tazio _______ (-6) _____13 _ 04 _ 00 _ 10*_ 08 __ 6 _ 41-6=35

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 06 _ 00 _ 05 _ 01*_ 02 __ 1 _____ 15

____________________________

* The PRC scores were too low and required the boost of minimum progression. The best forecasts did not have high raw scores so I gave a boost throughout the field despite the generally poor trend of our forecasts (the dry first half of the month as shown in guidance at forecast time was only discarded by one forecaster to any extent but he went a bit too high as it turned out, although had our PRC grid included some other locations perhaps not so much). ... anyway we all got points we probably didn't earn in that category ... Although MAX scoring was not that great, it did not qualify for a boost (fewer than one-third of the scores were zero, and highest scores were 20 and 19 so the rules require these elements not to be present for the boost to be used). SUN was scored from 90 rather than 75 as a form of minimum progression, this simply gives everyone 3 bonus points.

Forecasts follow ... and the annual scoring update will be posted later today.
================================================---- <<<

Congrats to Adam240610 and Pauldry for wringing high scores out of that mess.

================================================---- >>>

Forecasts (actual)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus

Appledrop ____________ 15.8 _ 28.5 _ 1.9 _ 065 _ 090 __ 80%

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 15.7 _ 30.7 _ 1.0 _ 045 _ 130 __ 10%

waterways ____________14.7 _ 29.0 _ 2.1 _ 055 _ 135 __ 59%

Dacogawa ____________ 14.6 _ 28.8 _ 1.6 _ 089 _ 092 __ 80%

KIndred Spirit _________ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 2.5 _ 070 _ 122 __ 70%

Rikand _______ (-3) ___ 14.5 _ 30.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 50%

Tae laidir _____________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 062 _ 118 __ 35%

Mrskinner _____ (-1) ___ 14.3 _ 28.6 _ 1.7 _ 065 _ 126 __ 85%

Artane2002 ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 1.4 _ 065 _ 112 __ 45%

sryanbruen ___________ 14.1 _ 27.9 _ 1.0 _ 070 _ 105 __ 25%

dasa29 _______________14.0 _ 28.5 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 30%

200motels ____________ 14.0 _ 27.6 _ 1.1 _ 071 _ 103 __ 88%

___ Con Sensus _______ 14.0 _ 28.4 _ 2.0 _ 075 _ 111 __ 50%

Sunflower3____________ 13.9 _ 28.0 _ 2.1 _ 075 _ 115 __ 80%

Jpmarn _______________13.9 _ 26.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 115 __105%

MrStonewall ___________13.8 _ 29.4 _ 1.6 _ 074 _ 121 __ 30%

DOCARCH ____________ 13.8 _ 27.1 _ 1.8 _ 068 _ 121 __ 30%

Joe Public ____________ 13.7 _ 29.4 _ 3.4 _ 101 _ 130 __ 89%

john mac _____ (-2) ____13.7 _ 28.4 _ 1.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 40%

Adam240610 __________13.7 _ 27.2 _ 3.3 _ 078 _ 110 __ 130%

___ NormaL __________ 13.6 _ 27.5 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __100%

Bsal _________________13.5 _ 28.5 _ 4.0 _ 075 _ 110 __ 20%

M.T. Cranium _________ 13.4 _ 26.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 110 __105%

Pauldry ______________ 13.0 _ 27.7 _ 3.0 _ 150 _ 101 __160%

Tazio _______ (-6) _____12.6 _ 25.5 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 100 __ 57%

mickger844posts _______12.5 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 110 __ 30%

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2020 2:31pm

Updated Annual Scoring Summary January to June 2020

The number in brackets after your rank (total score) is last month's rank. The number in brackets after your best 5/6 total (end of the row) is your rank in that statistic. This will be tracked in similar proportions to September when it changes to best 7/9 and begins to order the table, at which point total score will be tracked as the secondary value.

rank _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun __TOTAL___ Best 5/6 (rank)

01_(01)_ Mrskinner ________86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 _ 60 _ 49 __ 382 ____ 333 (1)

02_(02)_ Kindred Spirit _____61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 _ 60 _ 53 __ 379 ____ 326 (2)

(03)_(03)___ Con Sensus ___ 70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 _ 57 _ 64 __ 381 ____ 324 (3)

(03)_(08)__ NormaL _______ 70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 _ 52 _ 78 __ 378 ____ 328 (2)

03_(06)_Dacogawa _________73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 _ 62 _ 59 __ 362 ____ 311 (t9)

04_(04) _sryanbruen _______ 47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 _ 43 _ 54 __ 361 ____ 318 (3)

05_(07)_mickger844posts ___ 55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 _ 74 _ 59 __ 359 ____ 311 (t9)

06_(10)_Sunflower3 ________68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 _ 51 _ 71 __ 357 ____ 307 (13)

07_(05)_Artane2002 _______ 56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 _ 52 _ 50 __ 355 ____ 305 (14)

t08_(11)_DOCARCH ________58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 _ 54 _ 69 __ 354 ____ 304 (15)

t08_(t13) _Adam240610 ____ 62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 _ 47 _ 80 __ 354 ____ 316 (4)

10_(08)_Joe Public _________70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 _ 78 _ 59 __ 353 ____ 314 (t6)

11_(16) _Pauldry __________ 63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 _ 46 _ 79 __ 351 ____ 315 (5)

12_(03)_Rikand ___________ 68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 _ 66 _ 41 __ 350 ____ 312 (8)

t13_(09)_Jpmarn __________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 _ 39 _ 62 __ 349 ____ 310 (11)

t13_(t13)_M.T. Cranium _____69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 _ 35 _ 75 __ 349 ____ 314 (t6)

15_(12) _john mac _________64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 _ 59 _ 57 __ 339 ____ 293 (16)

16_(15)_Bsal ______________62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 _ 48 _ 49 __ 322 ____ 274 (18)

17_(17) _Tae laidir _________67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 _ 53 _ 45 __ 311 ____ 266 (19)

18_(18)_Dasa29 ___________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 _ 53 _ 63 __ 327 ____ 289 (17)

19_(19) _BLIZZARD7 _______66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 _ 53 _ 15 __ 261 ____ 246 (21)

20_(20) _200motels ________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 _ 60 _ 65 __ 308 ____ 308 (12)

21_(21) _waterways ________--- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 _ 67 _ 42 __ 249 ____ 249 (20)

22_(22)_Tazio ____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 35 ___103

23_(26)_Mr Stonewall ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 34 _ 50 ___ 84

24_(23)_JCXBXC __________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 58

25_(24)_WesternStorm _____ 54 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 54

26_(25)_esposito __________ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 49

27_(---)_Appledrop ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 ___ 47

=================================================

The annual scoring race is very competitive this year and there isn't much difference between ranks at this point.

|June 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

Comments