July 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 28-06-2018 9:51pm #1

With all the interest in the heat wave, I almost forgot to post a July contest thread.

Here we go then ...

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2018. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.5 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

6. BONUS ... Predict the max temp in the 25 stations reporting for yesterday's weather section of the met.ie website on Friday 6th of July and location. Points will be seven for your temperature forecast, and three for location, where you get all three for right location, two for picking second or third warmest, and one for picking any station that beats or ties Markree (not added to higher scores even if valid, e.g., you pick the right location and it beats Markree, still only three points for thee). If no location chosen beats Markree then we all score zero unless somebody picks Markree then they would score one or more. Superbonus of 2 for (7+3) and 1 for (6+3 or 7+2).

Deadline for entries 0300h Sunday 1st of July, then 1 point deducted for every four hours late to 0300h 3rd July, then 1 point per hour.

Good luck !!! and stay cool (this is easy for me, 15 C max here today). :pac:

sdanseo · 28-06-2018 10:02pm

Must not over-compensate for underestimating June!!

sdanseo ____ 17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 __ 27.1 Oak Park

Bsal · 28-06-2018 11:21pm

Bsal____ 16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 __ 26.0 Mount Dillon

sryanbruen · 28-06-2018 11:27pm

sryanbruen ____ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 50 _ 120 __ 25.2 Oak Park

adam240610 · 29-06-2018 6:55am

adam240610 15.9_29.1_6.8_060_120_26.2 Mt. Dillon

Been too busy to enter any of the recent ones

pauldry · 29-06-2018 1:38pm

pauldry ____ 16.9 _ 31 _ 3.8 _ 82 _ 113 __25 Oak Park

ill forget this if I dont enter now as swimming in the sea non stop (id hate to live in the midlands). Ive missed most of World Cup too recently.

sunflower3 · 29-06-2018 11:24pm

sunflower3 ____ 17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 75 _ 125 __26 Oak Park

dasa29 · 29-06-2018 11:44pm

dasa29 ____ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 55 _ 130 __26 Shannon

John mac · 30-06-2018 10:05am

john mac____ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 __ 26.1 Mt Dillon

Joe Public · 30-06-2018 10:18am

Joe Public ____ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 79 _ 139 __ 28.9 Mt Dillon

DOCARCH · 30-06-2018 2:28pm

DOCARCH ____ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 45 _ 165 __ 26.7 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium · 30-06-2018 3:48pm

MTC _____________ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 __ 28.9 Casement

200motels · 30-06-2018 3:59pm

200motels

16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 70 _ 145 __ 28.8 Mt Dillon

waterways · 30-06-2018 8:32pm

dried-out-waterways _____________ 17.2_ 27.4 _ 5.0_ 076 _ 111 __ 25.4 Shannon

kindredspirit · 30-06-2018 9:19pm

Kindred Spirit ___ 16.9 ___ 31.0 ___ 5.0 ___ 70 ___ 135 ___ 26.0 Shannon.

dacogawa · 30-06-2018 9:26pm

Dacogawa ____ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 72 _ 110 __26.2 Moore Park

Going hot as I'd like it to cool down a tad...

mickger844posts · 30-06-2018 9:40pm

mickger844posts _____________ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 __ 27.9 Oak Park

rameire · 30-06-2018 10:35pm

Rameire____ 16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 __ 25.5 Oak Park

Just checking, you say the weather on yesterdays weather on met.ie on Friday 6th July,
does this mean the reporting of Thursdays weather on the Friday reports, or am i thinking too much into this and its the Friday weather that will be reported in the yesterdays weather, or have i just ruined your plan?

JCX BXC · 30-06-2018 11:13pm

JCX_BXC 17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 __ 26.3 Shannon.

Almost forgot!

mrskinner · 01-07-2018 12:32am

Skinner_____17.2_____30.6_____4.1______80______140_______27.8°Shannon

Rikand · 01-07-2018 1:47am

Rikand ____ 17.0 ____ 32.0 ____ 4.0 ____ 80 ____ 130 ____ 28.0 Mt Dillon

Jpmarn · 01-07-2018 2:31am

Jpmarn ____ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 75 _ 125 __ 23.5 Shannon

BLIZZARD7 · 01-07-2018 2:58am

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 17.7_ 33.0c _ 5.3c_ 047 _ 125 __ 28.8c Oak Park

dacogawa · 01-07-2018 3:07am

rameire wrote: »

Rameire____ 16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 __ 25.5 Oak Park

Just checking, you say the weather on yesterdays weather on met.ie on Friday 6th July,
does this mean the reporting of Thursdays weather on the Friday reports, or am i thinking too much into this and its the Friday weather that will be reported in the yesterdays weather, or have i just ruined your plan?

That would be genius devious

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2018 3:51am

Oh crap, I worded that poorly. I meant to ask for the max on Friday 6th July as reported in the yesterday's weather section on 7th.

If anyone sincerely thought I meant Thursday 5th and wants to change, post your revision. Thank this post if your entry refers to 6th as intended. I will contact anyone who has done neither of those by 3rd.

Tae laidir · 02-07-2018 1:00am

Tae laidir ______ 16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 40 _ 128 __ 24.8 Mullingar

Looks like extra time and penalties!

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2018 2:28pm

After the first, IMT was 17.1 C, MAX 26.9 (OP) and MIN 8.5 (Dub, Cas).

PRC 0.8 mm (at Belmullet) or about 3% for the grid, and SUN about 160% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 03-07-2018 4:47am

Table of forecasts -- July 2018

FORECASTER _______IMT _ MAX _MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 6th _ loc'n

BLIZZARD7 ________ 17.7 _ 33.0 _ 5.3 _ 047 _ 125 ___ 28.8 __ Oak Park

mickger844posts ____ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 27.9 __ Oak Park

john mac __________ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 ___ 26.1 __ Mount Dillon

MrSkinner _________ 17.2 _ 30.6 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 140 ___ 27.8 __ Shannon

sunflower3 _________17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 26.0 __ Oak Park

waterways _________17.2 _ 27.4 _ 5.0 _ 076 _ 111 ___ 25.4 __ Shannon

M.T. Cranium ______ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 28.9 __ Casement

sdanseo ___________17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 27.1 __ Oak Park

Dacogawa _________ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 072 _ 110 ___ 26.2 __ Moore Park

Rikand ____________17.0 _ 32.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 28.0 __ Mount Dillon

dasa29 ___________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 055 _ 130 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

JCX_BXC __________17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 ___ 26.3 __ Shannon

Consensus ________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 26.2 __ OP 3, Mtd, Shan 2, others 1*

Bsal ______________16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 ___ 26.0 __ Mount Dillon

Kindred Spirit ______ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 5.0 _ 070 _ 135 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

Joe Public _________ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 079 _ 139 ___ 28.9 __ Mount Dillon

pauldry ___________ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 082 _ 113 ___ 25.0 __ Oak Park

200motels _________16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 070 _ 145 ___ 28.8 __ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ___________ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 23.5 __ Shannon

sryanbruen ________ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 25.2 __ Oak Park

Rameire ___________16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 ___ 25.5 __ Oak Park

Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 040 _ 128 ___ 24.8 __ Mullingar

DOCARCH _________ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 045 _ 165 ___ 26.7 __ Oak Park

adam240610 _______15.9 _ 29.1 _ 6.8 _ 060 _ 120 ___ 26.2 __ Mount Dillon

NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 _ see text below
______________________________________________________________________________

NormaL for the daily max is set at 23.0 since most stations have average near 20, and normally some location would hit 23.

Scoring for NormaL location will be obvious locations 3, frequent locations 2, sometimes locations 1, and almost never in July locations 0.

* Scoring for Consensus location will depend on most popular choices, 3 for Oak Park, 2 for Mount Dillon or Shannon, 1 for any other chosen, and 0 for any location not chosen (this was noted in the table later and that caused the second edit at 1355h 4th).

__ (choices so far, 8 for Oak Park, 6 each for Shannon and Mountdillon, 1 each for Casement, Mullingar, and Moore Park)

M.T. Cranium · 03-07-2018 4:04pm

Was Monday a bank holiday there? I was expecting to find the June MS but it hasn't appeared today.

July updates ... IMT on 17.4 after two days, the average on 2nd was 17.6

MAX now 27.1 (Moorepark and Oak Park) with the MIN at 6.3 (Markree), both extremes from 1st were improved on 2nd.

No measurable rainfall anywhere, leaves the month at 2% for the contest grid.

SUN continues its Iberian rampage, 83.0 hours or about 250%, month now at 205%.

sryanbruen · 03-07-2018 8:17pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Was Monday a bank holiday there? I was expecting to find the June MS but it hasn't appeared today.

July updates ... IMT on 17.4 after two days, the average on 2nd was 17.6

MAX now 27.1 (Moorepark) with the MIN at 6.3 (Markree), both extremes from 1st were improved on 2nd.

No measurable rainfall anywhere, leaves the month at 2% for the contest grid.

SUN continues its Iberian rampage, 83.0 hours or about 250%, month now at 205%.

It's out now M.T.

https://cli.fusio.net/cli/bulletin/data/2018/06/sum_062018.pdf

M.T. Cranium · 04-07-2018 3:12am

Okay thanks, they were later than usual with it, probably adding up all those sunshine hours.

The provisional scores are the final scores ... all temp data confirmed, PRC was actually 36% (same outcome for scoring) and sunshine averaged 8.02 hours a day at the six stations, the mean is 5.5, so the percentage is closer to 145% than my estimate of 140%. I will leave the sunshine scoring alone since the only other alternative is to drop everyone by one point, and the June scoring is already rather low.

So that being said, the table back a few posts from the end of the June thread is our final scoring, and it's on to the annual update ...

will edit that in as you sleep (or toss in the searing heat) ...

and will copy this report to the June thread where it actually belongs.

M.T. Cranium · 04-07-2018 1:48pm

Meanwhile, have now posted the annual update over in June, with best 5 of 6 to ease us towards the eventual reality of the best 10 of 12 (or if you're Lumi, the best 10 of 10). The one outlier in that list is BLIZZARD7 who drops one very low score to reach third place, otherwise the best 5 of 6 scores don't stray too far from the order of all six (Lumi had missed one already so that score is also well ahead of the rank for all six).

So to get back to July, the IMT now on 17.7 with yesterday managing 18.3 C.

The new MAX is 28.0 (Shannon) while the daily MIN of 8.2 (Dub A) left the monthly value (6.3) intact.

Another dry day leaves the PRC at a rather skimpy 1% of normal.

SUN was unstoppable at 92.3 hours, about 285% of normal. That brings the month to 232% of normal.

I feel like I may need a strong coffee to check the reality of these numbers, after all it is but 0547h here with the sun finally making a bit of an attempt to burn off the stratus. My comparable values are 13.5 _ 18.0 _ 12.0 _ 250 _ 010

M.T. Cranium · 05-07-2018 12:06pm

IMT remains on 17.7 with the 4th average of 17.8 C.

New MAX of 28.1 (Mountdillon) and new MIN of 5.1 (Markree).

Another essentially dry day (0.1 mm Cork in the contest grid and 0.7 mm Moorepark not in the grid), still rounds off to 1% of normal PRC.

SUN took a minor holiday with "only" 67.3 hours (200%) which leaves the monthly average at 224% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 06-07-2018 2:44pm

IMT on 17.6 after the 5th cooled off to 16.9 for an average.

MAX stays 28.1 as the 5th had the lowest maximum in several weeks, 24.9. The daily minimum of 9.1 (Malin Head) left the previous value of 5.1 intact.

PRC remains 1% with the 5th at 2% mainly due to 0.8 mm falling at Malin Head, also 0.1 mm at Belmullet so the grid reached 0.9 mm which is close to 3% of normal. Markree and Newport outside our contest grid also had measurable rainfalls of fractions of 1 mm.

SUN now on 211% of normal with the 5th producing 52.7 hours which is about 160% of normal.

For the bonus question, today's maximum, the 2 p.m. leaders are Newport (24) followed by Oak Park (23) and several at 22. Perhaps somebody will update this as I plan on sleeping through the next two reports.

Jpmarn · 06-07-2018 3:36pm

Oak Park reporting 24c

M.T. Cranium · 06-07-2018 4:25pm

At 1600h Oak Park and Casement at 24 C.

rameire · 06-07-2018 7:33pm

Carlow Weather is reporting Carlow at 24.5c for today, not sure if thats an official Met temp.
But Carlow weather's own temp was up to 25.4.
Information taken from Twitter.

M.T. Cranium · 07-07-2018 1:59pm

IMT on 17.7 C after sixth, the average for the day was 18.3 C.

MAX for the day was 25.3 (Oak Park) and MIN 7.8 at Malin Head.. (no changes to monthly values of 28.1, 5.1).

PRC for the day was 0.7 mm at Cork, another day at 3% leaving the month at 1% of normal.

SUN for the first time in weeks fell short of normal, 31.6 hours is about 98% of normal, so the month is down to 185%.

The contest bonus is the MAX for 6th. Three points for correct location (Oak Park 25.3), two for second or third highest (Mountdillon 24.8, Casement 24.7) and one point if your pick beat or tied Markree (21.4) -- these stations not already mentioned did so -- Athenry, Ballyhaise, Claremorris, Dublin, Finner Camp, Dunsany, Gurteen, Johnstown Castle, Moore Park, Mullingar, Newport, Phoenix Park, Roches Point, and Shannon). All of our picks managed at least that.

The scoring on temperatures will be as follows (superbonus additions noted based on location) ...

7 pts _ Sryanbruen 25.2 (+2), waterways 25.4, Rameire 25.5 (+2), Pauldry 25.0 (+2) _ error range 0.1 to 0.3

6 pts _ Tae laidir 14.8, sunflower3 (+1), dasa29, Bsal, Kindred Spirit (all 26.0) _ error range 0.5 to 0.7

5 pts _ John mac (26.1), dacogawa, adam240610, Con Sensus (26.2), JCX BXC (26.3) _ error range 0.8 to 1.0

4 pts _ DOCARCH (26.7) _ error 1.4

3 pts _ Jpmarn (23.5), sdanseo (27.1) _ error 1.8

2 pts _ MrSkinner (27.8), mickger844posts (27.9), Rikand (28.0) _ error range 2.5 to 2.7

1 pt _ 200motels and BLIZZARD7 (28.8), MTC and Joe Public (28.9) _ error range 3.5 to 3.6

M.T. Cranium · 08-07-2018 2:49am

Just a clarification on bonus scoring as listed above, the points listed are just for temperature, anyone who said Oak Park gets 3 more points, and those who said Casement or Mountdillon get two more, while the rest all qualify for one more (every station guessed beat Markree).

The superbonus is then added on to scores of 9 or 10 -- if you have 7+3 you get 2 more points, if you have any of 7+2 or 6+3 you get one more point.

As I had one PM about this, I thought maybe other forecasters were thrown off by my list, it's only the temperature scores out of seven. Everyone on that list gets additional points for location as well as (in some cases) the listed superbonus points.

M.T. Cranium · 08-07-2018 4:12pm

After 7th, IMT 17.8 ... daily IMT was 18.6

No PRC other than 0.4 mm Belmullet, PRC remains 1%.

SUN 42.4 hours, about 130% brings down average to 177%.

Max on 7th was 26.6 (OP) and min was 9.5 (Markree) (no new MAX/MIN).

M.T. Cranium · 09-07-2018 2:58pm

After eight days, the IMT on 17.9(2) with the 8th managing 18.8 C.

The MAX yesterday was 27.2 at OP and the MIN 10.2 at Claremorris (monthly values remain 28.1 and 5.1).

PRC was 0.2 mm at Malin Head, leaving us with the 1% monthly average. A few non-grid locations had small amounts, Athenry at 0.8 mm.

SUN total of 32.2 hours is very close to the 33 hours I am using as a daily normal for six locations (98%), and that brings the running total down to 167% of normal. The ag report (which I forgot to check yesterday) has 190% for 2-8 July and similar indications of average amounts, my log says 160% for first which I just checked out, so I am revising my running total to 185% of normal and looking through my math from 2nd to 7th to see if I can spot an error to explain that discrepancy. The PRC estimate of 1% matches the ag report.

M.T. Cranium · 10-07-2018 9:23am

After nine days the IMT stays on 17.9 with the 9th at 17.6 C.

MAX yesterday was 25.2 at Moorepark, while the MIN was 8.0 at Markree. These leave the monthly values at 28.1 and 5.1 C.

PRC was essentially zero (0.1 mm at Knock) so that our 1% monthly average is holding steady.

SUN on 9th was 47.5 hours, about 142% of normal. That leaves the (adjusted) monthly total around 180% of normal.

_______________________________________

some may have noticed that I mentioned a month-long absence in the forecast thread (21 July to 21 August) ... I hope to be able to maintain some basic level of contest updates, but these daily updates may not be possible after 21st or during most of August. I should be able to do the basic minimum of scoring July and posting August, this is not designed to be a total absence from the internet but that will happen for several days at a time with rest days with internet access, so I won't totally disappear, unless I fall off a cliff or something.

M.T. Cranium · 10-07-2018 9:23am

After nine days the IMT stays on 17.9 with the 9th at 17.6 C.

MAX yesterday was 25.2 at Moorepark, while the MIN was 8.0 at Markree. These leave the monthly values at 28.1 and 5.1 C.

PRC was essentially zero (0.1 mm at Knock) so that our 1% monthly average is holding steady.

SUN on 9th was 47.5 hours, about 142% of normal. That leaves the (adjusted) monthly total around 180% of normal.

_______________________________________

some may have noticed that I mentioned a month-long absence in the forecast thread (21 July to 21 August) ... I hope to be able to maintain some basic level of contest updates, but these daily updates may not be possible after 21st or during most of August. I should be able to do the basic minimum of scoring July and posting August, this is not designed to be a total absence from the internet but that will happen for several days at a time with rest days with internet access, so I won't totally disappear, unless I fall off a cliff or something.

Joe Public · 10-07-2018 1:21pm

There was 6C at Dublin Airport on the 4am reports this morning.

Jpmarn · 10-07-2018 3:19pm

It was down to 5c at Mt Dillon at one stage in the early hours of this morning.

Jpmarn · 11-07-2018 9:41am

Jpmarn wrote: »

It was down to 5c at Mt Dillon at one stage in the early hours of this morning.

It was precisely 4.5c low at Mt. Dillon yesterday morning. Dublin Airport tends to be chilly at night. Low of 5.2c there.

M.T. Cranium · 11-07-2018 4:39pm

IMT has slipped back to 17.7, the 10th average was 15.8 C.

MAX remains 28.1 with the daily maximum on 10th at Oak Park, 26.2

A new MIN was recorded with 4.5 at Mountdillon.

PRC remains just a fraction of 1% with 0.6 mm Malin Head, 0.4 mm Belmullet giving the 10th a 3% rating.

SUN total of 67.4 hours (despite a cloudy day at Belmullet) was 205% of normal, boosting the monthly average to 183%.

M.T. Cranium · 12-07-2018 5:43pm

After 11 days, IMT on 17.6, the average on the 11th was 16.8.

MAX for the day 25.3 at Moorepark, MIN 9.0 Mountdillon, monthly extremes remain 28.1 and 4.5.

PRC is still only rounding off to 1% (actually 0.8%) despite the 2.9 mm fall in total at a few stations in the northwest and north.

SUN managed 31.5 hours, mostly thanks to Valentia, about 97% for the day, which brings us back down to around 175% for the month.

M.T. Cranium · 13-07-2018 4:31pm

After 12 days, IMT on 17.4(4) with the 12th 15.7 C. This is as close to normal as we've seen in about three weeks.

MAX for the day was 23.0 at Moorepark and MIN was 8.0 at Claremorris. Monthly values continue 28.1 and 4.5.

PRC for the day was zero leaving the month at 1% of normal.

SUN was only 24.6 hours with three locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin) cloudy. That is about 74% of a normal day's quota and brings the monthly average down to 167% of normal.

John mac · 13-07-2018 11:35pm

11-07-2018, 16:39

A new MIN was recorded with 4.5 at Mountdillon.

MAX for the day was 23.0 at Moorepark and MIN was 8.0 at Claremorris. Monthly values continue 28.1 and 5.1.

shouldn't that be 4.5°

M.T. Cranium · 14-07-2018 5:11pm

Thanks, I was able to edit in the right values for 11th and 12th reports above (4.5 not 5.1).

Well, after 13 days we have the IMT stalled at 17.4, the 13th averaged 16.8 C.

The MAX and MIN remain 28.1 and 4.5 after the day produced values of 23.8 (Shannon) and 9.6 (Dublin A).

PRC was once again zero and this leaves us at 1% for the month awaiting some minor adjustments this weekend (could we soar into double digits? stay tuned).

SUN total was 45.2 hours, about 137% of normal, and that adjusts the monthly average to 165%.

Next report will be based in part on seven day ag report values so the SUN may get a minor tweaking from those.

July 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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