Property Market 2019

It looks like houses are being built in the wrong places for owner occupiers:
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/new-housing-crisis-on-horizon-as-supply-comes-on-stream-in-wrong-areas-37666390.html


https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-ireland-2018-house-price-rises-slow-dramatically-in-dublin-but-other-cities-continue-to-soar-37665341.html


So supply is finally coming albeit not close to where the jobs are.


The main problem is that the rental market has diverged from the sale market (probably due to continuous absurd interference from the legislators), Tom Lyons:
However, while there may be hope of relief for buyers, there is no indication that the rental market price rises are set to ease off.
"2018 was the year that sales and rental segments detached."


Conor Skehan:
Mr Skehan predicts the over-supply of the wrong type of housing, the lack of convenient rental properties, and increasing rents will lead to the emergence of what he calls a "new urban politics". "Whether it will be new political parties or new politics by existing parties will depend on how the next 12 months is handled," he says.



There is no hope for renters and landlords in Ireland in my opinion.

The market is like a river with multiple streams feeding into it - I don't think you can talk about a single property market.

One stream is high end property, which seems to be calming down considerably. Buyers here may be waiting until Brexit sorts itself out. Despite several predictions of imminent worldwide recession, there are plenty of mainstream commentators who are saying that economic fundamentals look quite strong - and we may even see a resolution to Trump/Brexit uncertainty in 2019 which would help confidence.

The next stream is property for sale to your typical "middle class". Supply here seems to be increasing, and prices are bouncing off the Central Bank limits. Property is there to be bought if you want it, but you might have to compromise on location or size of property. This market will find a stable equilibrium over the next few years as no builder is going to build unless they can make a profit. Attempts to increase the % of social housing in new build estates could lead unintentionally to a large drop in building activity. I can't see anything other than a catastrophic Brexit as a short term threat, and the changes of that is quite minimal.

Affordable housing for workers on lower wages remains a problem. There is property available, but the government affordability schemes (like all government schemes) are overly bureaucratic and not delivering. There is a bit of an expectation problem with lower paid workers expecting to be able to own a house close to Dublin city centre on a lower wage, which is never going to be realistic. The other problem is the cost of building - if a builder can only build houses for 200k at a minimum, that's the floor for new builds and no amount of protesting will fix it. Something radical needs to change here before this market changes - perhaps lower build standards.

The "homeless"/social housing market. Hard to know with this one, there seems to be a few genuine cases and a lot of people trying to game the system. It generates a lot of noise, but I don't see any celebrities offering to build social housing in their large back gardens. Putting a small amount of social housing into private estates is already testing purchasers patience, and there seems to be considerable opposition to building large social housing estates. Not easy to see an answer to this one.

The rental market appears to be screwed in the near term. Attempts to "fix" rents have largely backfired (as predicted), and small landlords are leaving the market. We have seen corporate landlords come in, and this can only be a good thing in terms of supply (and quality), but only if you can afford it. The demise of the bedsit/small apartment leaves a massive gap for cheaper rental accomodation for the lower paid. I think without some sort of radical change (e.g. allowing micro apartments New York style) there is no quick fix. This will generate a lot of noise from multinationals, as their foreign employees cannot source rental accommodation - maybe we'll see a return to the days when employers built housing for employees.

I feel Brexit will cause an immediate short term spike in prices of properties. I know few people planning to move to Ireland from UK as their companies are moving to Ireland. That way many professionals will be living and working in Ireland.

handlemaster wrote: »

Brexit brexit and brexit is going to place the market under pressure. The real test will be 2020 on as recession seems to be on the cards from 2020 on as pointed to by some analysts

Theres the high end market , house,s over 500k, in city area,s ,upper class area,s
the rural market , the lower end of the market , council house,s etc
I think 2 factors that will effect the market in 2019 is brexit and the stock market.
The economy will be effected in 2019,
why should new companys move to ireland when theres a major rental crisis .There will be some pushback from voters due to high rents,s
,people are spending some much on rent from their salarys .
The stock market had a large decline in december .
i think the strict rules on lending simply place limits on how much prices can rise even in dublin .

airportgirl83 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-2019-property-owners-warned-no-deal-brexit-will-take-ireland-into-the-unknown-37668643.html

To be honest no one knows for sure what the actual impact of Brexit will be. The only unbiased comment one can make is that there is a lot of uncertainty (what Bexit even means is not clear yet, and might not be for a while - even after the March deadline) . Someone saying that Brexit will push prices one way or another is making a lot of assumptions to deliver actual predictions out of that uncertainty. And given the large number of assumptions, how huge the impact would be if even one of them is wrong, and the relatively low level of certainty for each of them - I personally don’t give too much credit to any Brexit related prediction.

beaz2018 wrote: »

There will be no loosening of credit, Philip Lane has been adamant about that.

Have to say, I'm a huge fan of his. A rare voice of reason in an Irish state body.

Moonjet wrote:

I think the actual process and legal changes involved in implementing Brexit will be long, messy, complicated and drawn out, certainly not something that will happen overnight on March 29th. As a result, any meaningful impact on the Irish property market will probably not be felt for at least 3-5 years.

That would indicate a sudden shock untill the legal issues are sorted out

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

Manhattan home sales fell 14 percent last year, the industry's steepest drop since 2009, according to new data.

In the fourth quarter, the median price for an apartment in New York City fell below $1 million for the first time in three years.

The decline in sales in the fourth quarter was the fifth-straight quarterly drop.

From CNBC

I wonder if the trade restrictions and tightening of regulation in China is stopping Chinese investors from dumping capital into foreign property markets. London, New York, Sydney and to a lesser extent San Francisco have all been heavily affected by this investment.

Peter Muscular Quirk wrote:

The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.

I wouldnt react with glee to a recession but I wouldn't mind one. Probably the best chance I have to buy a house as I'd have close to 20% deposit at current house prices, never mind if they went down.

Course, could lose job or banks won't lend, and things could get worse in the country but I have hope it might shake things up politically and we might get some parties move more to the right economically.

Peter Muscular Quirk wrote:

The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.

The whole point of many posts here is that if we had a mature attitude to the property market we would avoid the worst of the damage caused by recessions. The property market operates in a boom bust cycle by choice and government policy.
It is quiet simple to avoid these cycles and have a functioning property market

Bob24 wrote: »

I don’t know ... when I see the amount of crap Facebook has done with regards to privacy and abusing their market position and the fact that not only almost every person I know is still on it, but they are also all heavily relying on WhatsApp, with many on Instagram, I am not sure people care that much and will leave.

Your superficial knowledge is fascinating, but you knpow little of the actual workings of the business. your cursory view of the people in you direct circle is charming, but the reality is that facebook is growing massively in growing markets and those markets care little for you're mate in the pub. I think this is a direct example of pub economics.