October 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

(received on 26th by p.m.)

Waterways _________________ 10.4 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 97 _4.2

and then mine

M.T. Cranium ________________ 9.7 _ 21.0 _ -3.8 _ 150 _ 100 _ -1.5

After one week ...

IMT on 11.3, 0.1 below normal for the period.

MAX and MIN have not done much yet, approximately 18 and 1 so far, both of which would set off minimum progression scoring.

PRC is 146% of normal, most stations not far from that average.

SUN is 81% of normal (485/600), the southwest a little above average with the rest closer to 70%.

After three weeks ...

IMT on 10.3, the past week averaged 9.0 deg which is 1.2 below normal. I think the net change from now to 31st will be slightly negative although up and down almost cancelling out. So perhaps 10.1 or so at the final whistle?

MAX remains sub-18 (I think), difficult to see this being topped now, and a new MIN of -1.9 probably won't be the last word on that subject.

PRC has fallen to 103% of normal with a relatively dry week that averaged 62% of normal. This will get some further boosts but at a normal pace? Looks a bit under that, PRC could end up in the 95% range. Monday appears to be the key to the answer there.

SUN is now up to 115% as the past week was quite bright at 141% of normal sunshine (847/600). Would expect this to back off a bit now and end up perhaps 105% by end of the month.

Will confirm all this tomorrow but IMT likely to finish 9.3 as it was 9.26 after 30 days, today is milder but not so much as to push that past 9.34 (I think). The PRC was about 95% of normal (rough estimate) going into today with some rain falling at most of the locations, could be quite close to 100% on finish by midnight. MAX was not threatened so will be scoring that off minimum progression. MIN likely to be confirmed as -3.4 (but MS not available until 4th). SUN was about average on 29th-30th, nothing much today, that should edge the previous value down a touch to 115%. Clearly the mildest predictions will work out best for midnight readings (bonus question).

Will show some provisional scoring tomorrow and adjust as necessary later.

IMT confirmed at 9.3 C.

PRC works out to 95% with only the south coast above normal.

SUN for this provisional scoring 115%, MAX sub 18, MIN -3.4, bonus 10 C.

Here are your provisional scores subject to final adjustments on Monday 4th when it should be possible to confirm all unresolved questions from the MS.

The MAX scores marked with * have been adjusted for minimum progression. That was almost needed in some other categories but none qualified as raw scores stayed within limits set and there were some reasonably high scores in each case. It seems that just about everyone mixed up some good and poor forecasts of various elements so the totals are fairly lacklustre, apart from Waterways who will be making a good move on the leader (rhymes with username too, or in my head it does, not speaking Gaelic). I did get a meaning for the words a few years back. Anyone know what I could call myself if I decide to go "weak tea" as a counterpoint?

Anyway, unless there was something I totally overlooked, I can't see these scores changing very much after the fourth, but I will hold off posting the annual totals until then. Most of you will be dropping this score from the "best 8 of 10" portion and finding the second lowest one from earlier this year in its place, but a few scores were respectable if not entirely dazzling as we normally see in our contest. That sound was Normal pushing past you.


FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus ___ TOTAL

Confirmed or estimated ____ 9.3_17.8_-3.4_095_115___ 10.0


Waterways ______________ 14 _ 10*_ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 65


___ NormaL _____________ 17 _ 07*_ 14 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 63


john mac ______ (-1) _____ 15 _ 07*_ 19 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 05 _63-1=62

Joe Public _____ (-2) ______16 _ 18*_ 18 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 03 _64-2=62

BLIZZARD7 ______________22 _ 17*_ 14 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 00 _____ 60

Rikand __________________13 _ 07*_ 16 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 01 _____ 59

Kindred Spirit ____________ 14 _ 15*_ 06 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 07 _____ 58

Dasa29 _________________ 14 _ 15*_ 06 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 57

Bsal ____________________13 _ 12*_ 06 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 56

M.T. Cranium ____________ 21 _ 07*_ 16 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 00 _____ 51

Jpmarn _________________ 07 _ 19*_ 04 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 09 _____ 51


___ Con Sensus __________ 12 _ 12*_ 07 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 50



mickger844posts _________ 12 _ 11*_ 02 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 49

sryanbruen ______________ 06 _ 15*_ 07 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 04 _____ 47

MrsKinner _______________ 12 _ 15*_ 03 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 01 _____ 46

Adam240610 ___ (-2) _____ 09 _ 17*_ 15 _ 03 _ 00 ___ 02 _46-2=44

Sunflower3 ______________ 10 _ 03*_ 11 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 44

Tae laidir ________________08 _ 13*_ 03 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 41

DOCARCH _______________ 13 _ 02*_ 07 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 04 _____ 41

pauldry _________________ 00 _ 07*_ 16 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 39

200motels _______________05 _ 07*_ 07 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 04 _____ 38

Rameire _______ (-2) _____ 12 _ 12*_ 01 _ 05 _ 03 ___ 06 _39-2=37

Artane2002 ____ (-4) _____ 08 _ 13*_ 00 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 06 _40-4=36

Dacogawa _______________11 _ 10*_ 09 _ 00 _ 03 ___ 02 _____ 35





















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(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Min temp 31st 2359h


pauldry _________________11.8 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 148 _ 094 ____ 9.8

200motels ______________ 11.3 _ 21.0 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 2.1

sryanbruen ______________11.2 _ 20.0 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 2.1

Jpmarn _________________11.1 _ 19.5 _ -1.8 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 5.5

Artane2002 ____ (-4) _____ 11.0 _ 20.2 _ -1.2 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 3.2

Tae laidir ________________11.0 _ 20.2 _ -1.7 _ 133 _ 095 ____ 5.8

Adam240610 ___ (-2) _____ 10.9 _ 19.9 _ -2.9 _ 130 _ 066 ____ 0.3

Sunflower3 ______________ 10.8 _ 21.6 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 4.0

Dacogawa _______________10.7 _ 20.9 _ -2.3 _ 165 _ 082 ____ 1.1

mickger844posts _________ 10.6 _ 20.5 _ -1.6 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 5.0

Rameire _______ (-2) _____10.6 _ 20.4 _ -1.5 _ 125 _ 080 ____ 3.6

MrsKinner _______________10.6 _ 20.0 _ -1.7 _ 116 _ 100 ____-0.7


___ Con Sensus __________10.6 _ 20.4 _ -2.1 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 3.1


DOCARCH _______________10.5 _ 21.8 _ -2.1 _ 109 _ 088 ____ 2.3

Rikand _________________ 10.5 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 0.0

Bsal ___________________ 10.5 _ 20.3 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 6.0

Waterways ______________ 10.4 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 097 ____ 4.2

Dasa29 _________________ 10.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 3.0

Kindred Spirit ____________ 10.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 105 _ 085 ____ 4.0

john mac ______ (-1) _____ 10.3 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 107 _ 093 ____ 3.1

Joe Public _____ (-2) ______10.2 _ 19.8 _ -3.2 _ 130 _ 095 ____ 1.5


___ NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 21.0 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 3.0


M.T. Cranium _____________ 9.7 _ 21.0 _ -3.8 _ 150 _ 100 ____-1.5

BLIZZARD7 _______________9.6 _ 19.9 _ -4.0 _ 150 _ 100 ____ -2.8

Monthly summary confirms all data used for scoring, the SUN worked out to 115% and the MAX was only 17.7.

Congrats to waterways for finishing first in October, and to tae laidir for maintaining an overall contest scoring lead (in both of our contests).

Thanks, I enjoy the contests too.

Error detected in annual update post above (working on November's edition) ... rather minor and does not affect contest rankings.

Sunflower3 is shown with best 8/10 of 549 but that should have read 547. ... Also in error was the statement above the table about the order for 8/10 showing 6/8 in brackets, that should have been edited to say 7/9.

Kindred Spirit had a total score (last column) of 582 rather than 592 as shown. That makes his rank at the time 15th and moves up t13 to t12, Pauldry shown 15th was 14th. After that ranks resume correct order. The best 8/10 was shown correctly.