Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 12:02am

Leila Eager Blowgun wrote: »

I read the first post and my first thought was would you "feck off" with your hurricanes

I'm in the south west on the side of a mountain facing the Atlantic.

I nice shower would do grand and a bit of a breeze

How come Harm what's his name didn't mention hurricanes in his report on rte radio at 6 this evening?

It's way too early. Let the redtop rags to that.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-09-2019 12:03am

Leila Eager Blowgun wrote: »

I read the first post and my first thought was would you "feck off" with your hurricanes

I'm in the south west on the side of a mountain facing the Atlantic.

I nice shower would do grand and a bit of a breeze

How come Harm what's his name didn't mention hurricanes in his report on rte radio at 6 this evening?

lol

There won't be a "hurricane". It will be a cold core storm by the time it gets here so no eye so to speak. There could be a post tropical storm with hurricane force winds though equivalent to a Cat 1 strength storm.

At this far out the track and intensity will vary a lot though.

J6P · 28-09-2019 12:08am

A bit premature maybe but the latest GFS and some ECM ensembles would be concerning.

If the worst case scenarios were to verify would this warrant a red alert/national emergency as was the case with Ophelia, If i remember correctly there was a couple of fatalities during Ophelia.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 12:16am

The latest microwave at 2144Z shows that outer southern eyewall that was trying to form earlier a little less defined. Overall it's not looking as healty on its southern half as earlier as dry air is wrapping around and shear is starting to pull at it.

20190927.2144.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v.13LLORENZO.110kts-948mb-198N-433W.062pc.jpg

20190927.2144.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v.13LLORENZO.110kts-948mb-198N-433W.062pc.jpg

20190927.2130.goes16.x.wv1km.13LLORENZO.110kts-948mb-198N-433W.100pc.jpg

Kermit.de.frog · 28-09-2019 12:25am

Can a mod update the thread title to "hurricane" rather than storm for the time being?

J6P · 28-09-2019 12:26am

https://twitter.com/andrewwulfeck/status/1177653491638112262

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 12:36am

J6P · 28-09-2019 12:40am

http://maritimebulletin.net/2019/09/27/bourbon-offshore-tug-distressed-in-atlantic-14-crew-waiting-rescue/

Offshore AHT tug BOURBON RHODE issued distress signal in the morning Sep 26 in Atlantic, in vicinity 15 35N 040 10W, some 970 nm due W of Cape Verde. The ship while en route from Las Palmas Canary islands, to Georgetown Guyana, was caught in cyclone, suffering massive water ingress in ship’s compartments, 14 crew readying for evacuation. MRCC Antilles-Guyana directed the only ship in the area around distressed tug, bulk carrier SSI EXCELLENT (IMO 9693757), to assist.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 1:00am

J6P wrote: »

https://twitter.com/andrewwulfeck/status/1177653491638112262

What it was doing sailing right through an eyewall in this day and age is beyond me.

https://twitter.com/UCARCPAESS/status/1177686947201998848?s=19

Kermit.de.frog · 28-09-2019 1:00am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Conditions look reasonably favorable for this to retain a good bit of it's tropical characteristics right up until near landfall time as it would be for us.

That depends entirely on the track of course. Early days but I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC started to reference the potential impacts here within the next 2 days. Probably be in touch with Met Eireann too.

Let's see if it stays on track over the next couple of days.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 1:06am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Conditions look reasonably favorable for this to retain a good bit of it's tropical characteristics right up until near landfall time as it would be for us.

That depends entirely on the track of course. Early days but I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC started to reference the potential impacts here within the next 2 days. Probably be in touch with Met Eireann too.

Let's see if it stays on track over the next couple of days.

I doubt it. I'd say that Atlantic trough will shear it too much long before it gets here.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-09-2019 1:14am

The shear really starts to take the tops off on the 2nd. Most models have impacts here by the morning/early afternoon of the 3rd.

Seems similar to Ophelia which retained some tropical characteristics right up to landfall in spite of tapping the mid latitude trough well before that. Then again that was a sprint.

This could be all academic though this far out!

q85dw7osi4lebg · 28-09-2019 1:45am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

What it was doing sailing right through an eyewall in this day and age is beyond me.

https://twitter.com/UCARCPAESS/status/1177686947201998848?s=19

Fair play to them

JCX BXC · 28-09-2019 1:53am

Kimora Happy Cat wrote: »

Fair play to them

Why?

Jpmarn · 28-09-2019 2:05am

I titled this thread storm rather than hurricane. By the time Lorenzo gets to our vicinity it will be a temperate storm no longer a tropical hurricane. It may still contain hurricane force winds. Mods are entitled to rename this thread or change the nature of this thread if Met Éireann gives warnings in respect of this storm. Ophelia was classed as a storm in Ireland when we had a nationwide status red. There is a lot of uncertainty about this storm yet. The general public are still unaware of this severe storm risk. It is us weather enthusiasts that are talking about it. If I didn’t started a dedicated thread someone else would have started because various model runs were having this storm too close for comfort.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 28-09-2019 2:32am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Why?

Risking their lives on a rescue mission, fairly obvious why I would have thought ???????????????

OneEightSeven · 28-09-2019 5:34am

Someone from Flordia posted on r/Ireland warning us about the hurricane:

I’m not trying to concern anyone from an American who lives in Florida. Hurricanes are nothing to ignore. At this moment it looks like it could straight for you country and the rest of U.K. Florida deals with hurricanes all the time and we always get ready we’ll in advance. Just want to make sure you are all aware of the path

Gutter tabloids, like Dublin Live, will probably visit this place, post a sensationalist article on Facebook using images grabbed from here and this thread will be swamped with idiots asking the usual stupid questions about whether the hurricane with hit Cork, Waterford, Galway and what time with I pick up my kids from school.

I say keep the thread title as it is to draw as little attention as possible.

Oneiric 3 · 28-09-2019 7:16am

Man..

Oneiric 3 · 28-09-2019 7:26am

OneEightSeven wrote: »

Gutter tabloids, like Dublin Live, will probably visit this place, post a sensationalist article on Facebook using images grabbed from here

It actually would be a good idea if Boards.ie had a system where images uploaded on the site would be automatically imprinted with a logo. It is pretty obvious that journalists keep tabs on this site and others such as IWO to gather information, claim it as their own and then embellish it to sell a story.

Graces7 · 28-09-2019 7:37am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

#prayforireland

Oh we do! Every day and many times a day!

Lighting candles too....( May need them if Lorenzo hits! )

Graces7 · 28-09-2019 7:41am

Well. OH MY! is the only reaction from here... OH MY! As long as my shopping etc gets in on Thursday... "Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war!"

Meteorite58 · 28-09-2019 7:43am

GFS came up with another track over Ireland on the 0z this morning and then the ECM 0Z rolls out with this.

850 hPa Winds

DOCARCH · 28-09-2019 7:48am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Man...

Calm and sunny for Achill....for a little while.

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2019 7:49am

Lorenzo -- was he also in Hamlet? Must have a look at that.

Nope, just in the Merchant of Venice.

Meteorite58 · 28-09-2019 7:52am

000
WTNT43 KNHC 280236
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Lorenzo's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening.
A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core
erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed
a significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone,
indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the
impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the
available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as
well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of
105 kt for this advisory.

Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for
the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should
inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of
short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement
cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter
stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and
undergo extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic
zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity
models.

The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has
been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is
estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains
the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should
turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it
moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge
anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is
forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude
westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough
approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has
been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close
to the various consensus aids.

The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B
scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour
period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 20.8N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Meteorite58 · 28-09-2019 7:59am

For the record GFS 0Z

10 M mean winds ( kt)

Oneiric 3 · 28-09-2019 8:00am

Graces7 wrote: »

Well. OH MY! is the only reaction from here... OH MY! As long as my shopping etc gets in on Thursday... "Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war!"

Word of well meaning caution Graces7, these charts are a long way off yet and they will throw up a lot of different solutions between now and then, so please don't be taking these charts as gospel just yet, but no better thread to keep informed & up to date all the same.

Oneiric 3 · 28-09-2019 8:03am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

For the record GFS 0Z

The north midlands seems to bear the brunt on that particular run.

Zorya · 28-09-2019 8:11am

OneEightSeven wrote: »

and this thread will be swamped with idiots ......

I say keep the thread title as it is to draw as little attention as possible.

Too late! I'm here already

Been here since yesterday. Cannot understand the maps, but Oneirics red scribbles one has caught my attention. All the leaves still on the trees. Plus I'm in a business with all outdoor workers so this idiot will be following very closely.
Thanks.

Oneiric 3 · 28-09-2019 8:13am

To die, to sleep.
For in this sleep of death what dreams may come.

Meteorite58 · 28-09-2019 8:15am

Would certainly agree that this could well veer off and moderate in later runs. Nearly always show stronger winds in the earlier runs and less so nearer the event.

But also need to watch the trends and over the last few runs Ireland is certainly featuring in it's track.

Watching the steering factors of the HP off Portugal and the large are of LP below Greenland and the GFS charts show the Jet in the perfect position slowing the system as it makes landfall and nudging it across the country atm. +138 hrs

28-09-2019 8:17am

Another idiot here since the thread started,I cant understand the maps but love these threads as they are always very informative and give a great heads up on all weather events.

Now can someone tell me if it will be wet and windy in my backyard at 2.31pm next Saturday ðŸ˜›

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2019 8:22am

Meanwhile the GEM corrected to such an extent that it takes a much weaker Lorenzo into the Bay of Biscay for a landfall in central France. This is a trend that might show up on other models, recall that at this time range, Dorian was shown making a landfall in Florida and continuing on into the northeast Gulf of Mexico, so errors on that scale are quite normal with tropical systems at six days.

Meteorite58 · 28-09-2019 8:38am

ICON 0Z Veered left on its latest run.

GEM has been consistent in showing the remnants head in to Biscay now for the last few runs.

UKMO now coming more into the frame.

Strangegravy · 28-09-2019 9:26am

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1177839883936784385?s=09

Interesting that Met Eireann have it hitting us late next Thursday / early Friday on this animation.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 9:35am

Latest microwave scan shows the eyewall replacement cycles has almost completed now, with a much wider eyewall now almost the whole way around the centre.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 10:33am

It's weakened further overnight, now 100 kts. Shear is taking its toll. It will start to pass over much lower ocean heat content from now on so it's just a question of rate of weakening now.

Lorenzo's tilt has grown this morning. AMSR2 imagery at 0505 UTC showed a 20 n mi displacement between the low- and mid-level centers of the hurricane, a consequence of persistent westerly wind shear. Satellite-based intensity estimates vary greatly, from 77 to 110 kt, so the intensity is set to 100 kt as a compromise of all available data. Despite the decrease in Lorenzo's maximum winds during the past 24 hours, earlier ASCAT-C data showed that its hurricane-force wind field has expanded, and now reaches up to 45 n mi to the northeast of the center. The lower initial intensity resulted in a slightly lower intensity forecast through most of the period. The wind shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to continue, and a slow decrease in Lorenzo's peak winds is still expected during the next several days. The official intensity forecast is very near the intensity consensus. Despite the expected decrease in intensity, the hurricane is not forecast to decrease in size, and in fact Lorenzo's hurricane-force wind field could increase further by next week. Because of that, users are urged to not focus on the exact intensity of Lorenzo since the cyclone will likely remain a powerful storm well into next week. By 120 h, all of the global models indicate that Lorenzo will become post-tropical, and so does the NHC forecast. The aforementioned microwave data was very helpful in identifying Lorenzo's center location.

leahyl · 28-09-2019 10:47am

I know it’s a long way off Gaoth, but you said it’s weakening - will it strengthen again?

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 10:55am

leahyl wrote: »

I know it’s a long way off Gaoth, but you said it’s weakening - will it strengthen again?

It's unlikely. All the reliable models show steady weakening to below hurricane strength within about 120 hours.

The latest microwave scan now shows that eyewall completely open to the west so it could start to weaken at a faster rate now. We'll see.

JCX BXC · 28-09-2019 11:06am

Kimora Happy Cat wrote: »

Risking their lives on a rescue mission, fairly obvious why I would have thought ???????????????

Apologies, was tired and read it completely arseways.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-09-2019 11:13am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's unlikely. All the reliable models show steady weakening to below hurricane strength within about 120 hours.

Important to remember that 120 hrs is within hours of potential landfall so I wouldn't be underestimating the impact this system could have.

The shear is forecast to be less pronounced for the system later Sunday and through Monday, Tuesday as well.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 12:31pm

The ECM has the centre to the west of Irelan but 160-180 kph gusts touching the west of Galway and Mayo Thursday evening.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 2:02pm

Latest microwave now shows that western eyewall closing in a bit again.

The 12Z SHIPS LGEM has the intensity at 46 knots at 120 hours (12Z on Thursday) as it approaches well off the southwest coast (50.6 N, 15.6 W), moving at 33 knots. It has it at around 67 knots near the Azores at 96 hours.

20190928.1017.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v.13LLORENZO.100kts-957mb-209N-446W.046pc.jpg

20190928.1017.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v.13LLORENZO.100kts-957mb-209N-446W.046pc.jpg

pad199207 · 28-09-2019 2:18pm

Note from Met Eireann

“Hurricane Lorenzo is currently positioned in the south Atlantic and will gradually track northeastwards in the coming days. At this stage its impact on Ireland is uncertain. Met Eireann is closely monitoring the progress of Lorenzo.”

pauldry · 28-09-2019 2:21pm

At the moment this is a very dangerous storm for the Atlantic coasts next Thursday

Met Eireann have even mentioned it.

But further weakening and it may be just a wet and windy evening when it hits

Meteorite58 · 28-09-2019 2:22pm

NHC

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1177924544280969216?s=20

SleetAndSnow · 28-09-2019 2:39pm

While ophelia did become a post-tropical hurricane i seem to remember it keeping its wind speeds higher then models predicted at the time, is it possible that could happen again here with the jet stream pushing it towards the SW?

Meteorite58 · 28-09-2019 2:50pm

Lorenzo's path through cooler waters .

HWRF tracking it off the W. Showing it still very strong at +126

Gaoth Laidir · 28-09-2019 2:58pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Note from Met Eireann

“Hurricane Lorenzo is currently positioned in the south Atlantic and will gradually track northeastwards in the coming days. At this stage its impact on Ireland is uncertain. Met Eireann is closely monitoring the progress of Lorenzo.”

Em, that would be very unusual. I think they mean the other south (i.e. North!)

refusetolose · 28-09-2019 3:06pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Em, that would be very unusual. I think they mean the other south (i.e. North!)

south of north atlantic?

Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only