Allsop Auction

antiskeptic · 07-07-2011 11:42am #1

First few results.

1 Vacant flat Dublin Res 142k Sold 148k

2 Investment flat Blackrock Res 202k Sold 270k

3 Investment freehold building Clondalkin Res 120k Sold 139k

4 Investment freehold house Stepaside Res 102.5k Sold 146k

5 Investment flat Dublin Res 175 Sold 177

6 Vacant freehold house Castlebar Res 42 Sold 87

7 Vacant leasehold house Dublin 3 Res 62 Sold 67

8 Investment flat Dublin 1 Res 142 Sold 145

9 Investment freehold building Bray Res 150

http://www.realbid.co.uk/realbidIrish/gallery.asp

quozl · 07-07-2011 12:00pm

They're really making GMAC look more and more incompetent.

antiskeptic · 07-07-2011 12:05pm

Or less and less able to accurately describe the nature of their auction (ordinary wishful thinking householders and not distressed properties)

Prices seem to be settling around the reserve figures

quozl · 07-07-2011 12:32pm

18% above reserve after first 19 lots, courtesy of NamaWinelake.

subway · 07-07-2011 12:39pm

Lot. Location Result
1 465 Castleforbes Square, Upper Mayor Street, Dublin 1 €148,000
2 Apartment 1,, House 1, Linden Square, Grove Avenue, Co. Dublin, Blackrock €270,000
3 Unit 6, Bawnogue Shopping Centre, Bawnogue Road, Dublin 22, Clondalkin €139,000
4 2 Stepaside Villas, Co. Dublin, Stepaside €146,000
5 Apartment 92B, Smithfield Market, Dublin 7 €177,000
6 27 Knockthomas, Co. Mayo, Castlebar €87,000
7 5 Hibernian Avenue, Dublin 3 €67,000
8 396 Castleforbes Square, Block H, Upper Mayor Street, Dublin 1 €145,000
9 3 Killarney Park, Co. Wicklow, Bray €220,000
10 249 Upper Kilmacud Road, Co. Dublin, Stillorgan €280,000
11 13 The Boulevard, Dublin 15, Tyrrelstown €129,000
12 4A St Fintans Villas, Co. Dublin, Blackrock €66,000
13 1 The Bridge, Co. Kilkenny, Thomastown €50,000
14 Newtown Manor, New Orchard, Co. Kilkenny, Kilkenny City €440,000
15 Apartment 20,, House 1, Linden Square, Grove Avenue, Co. Dublin, Blackrock €285,000
16 4 St Canice's Park, Glasnevin, Dublin 9 €55,000
17 9 Trinity Street, Co. Louth, Drogheda Available
18 Apartment 10 Townsville, St Marys Road, Co. Wicklow, Arklow €71,000
19 434 Castleforbes Square, Block J, Upper Mayor Street, Dublin 1 €132,000
20 35 Ailesbury Road, Dublin 4 €2,325,000
21 Unit 3 Windmill Lodge, Windmill Road, Crumlin, Dublin 12 €54,000
22 Unit 1 Windmill Lodge, Windmill Road, Crumlin, Dublin 12 €73,000
23 1 The Green, Clover Meadows, Belmont Road, Co. Waterford, Ferrybank €95,000

John Mason · 07-07-2011 2:05pm

WOW that Blackberry Glade went for 149,000 the reserve was 122,000 :eek:

antiskeptic · 07-07-2011 2:35pm

Pretty property in Cork went for over twice it's 270 reserve. Someone will be pleased!

Cathmandooo · 07-07-2011 3:28pm

€325k for Lot66, the unfinished house in Dalkey, I thought it would go for a lot more, the views are fab, I want a roof garden with those views!

scotty_irish · 07-07-2011 3:33pm

is there anywhere online i can follow this auction?

Cathmandooo · 07-07-2011 3:42pm

scotty_irish wrote: »

is there anywhere online i can follow this auction?

There's a link in the first post

http://www.realbid.co.uk/realbidIrish/gallery.asp

RasTa · 07-07-2011 3:59pm

This smashed the reserve by €1m

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000020&S=L&O=A

handlemaster · 07-07-2011 4:05pm

Prices still seem to be high. Anyone been looking at this ?

quozl · 07-07-2011 4:08pm

I'd guess the people in the other Allsop thread a few below yours have been

handlemaster · 07-07-2011 4:09pm

quozl wrote: »

I'd guess the people in the other Allsop thread a few below yours have been

only just noticed it after I posted

heybaby · 07-07-2011 5:11pm

One and two bed flats in dublin city centre trading for a third of what they were 5 years ago, established dwellings in southern Dublin city burbs down substantially too but i feel there is still further scope for prices to fall another 30 % over the coming 36 months. I predict one bed apt in dublin city centre will reach its bottom price at around 60 -70 k.

RasTa · 07-07-2011 5:15pm

See the price this went for???!!!

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000079&S=L&O=A

Madness Ted.

antiskeptic · 07-07-2011 5:43pm

RasTa wrote: »

See the price this went for???!!!

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000079&S=L&O=A

Madness Ted.

Given that a not-too-dissimilar property on Villiers Rd. in Rathgar went for 450k (albeit divided into units) I'd be thinking the same thing. It's not that Iona Rd is in the middle of a leafy suburb..

Penguino · 07-07-2011 5:49pm

RasTa wrote: »

See the price this went for???!!!

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000079&S=L&O=A

Madness Ted.

Mad price alright.

Some of the apts in Castleforbes Sq went for reasonable prices with close to 10% yields. The 2 beds went for on average 10% less than they did in the first Allsop auction but the 1 beds went up in price. Difficult to understand

vanjaqwq · 07-07-2011 7:23pm

I can't believe that house went for that price. They are selling in EA's for less on that road. Somebody really must have wanted it. I want to buy in the D9 area at some point and really would have liked to have seen a benchmark in the area but I don't think that really tells me anything. The house just isn't worth that type of money.

The_Conductor · 07-07-2011 7:37pm

Threads merged.

Shane

wyndham · 07-07-2011 7:46pm

The 5 bed in Stillorgan only barely made reserve @ €280,000. Seems like value?

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000010&S=L&O=A

washman3 · 07-07-2011 9:25pm

heybaby wrote: »

One and two bed flats in dublin city centre trading for a third of what they were 5 years ago, established dwellings in southern Dublin city burbs down substantially too but i feel there is still further scope for prices to fall another 30 % over the coming 36 months. I predict one bed apt in dublin city centre will reach its bottom price at around 60 -70 k.

agree with you.!
but i predict the 1 bed apts will be bought for 50k max.
(you talking about good quality or a "shoebox" by the way)

The_Conductor · 07-07-2011 9:55pm

wyndham wrote: »

The 5 bed in Stillorgan only barely made reserve @ €280,000. Seems like value?

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000010&S=L&O=A

Depends on what you use as a measure of value. The internationally accepted measure of value- is a multiple of its gross potential monthly rental income. A property in a major urban conurbation (of which contrary to what people might like to think, Dublin is our only one) would normally have a factor of 95-100 assigned to it. A provincial town would have a factor of 90-95 assigned to it, and a rural location a factor of 80-85 assigned to it.....

So- if its a reasonable assumption that this property could rent for 2k a month(?) then it would have a value of 190-200k which would mean the buyer paid about 80k over the odds.

The fact that its Stillorgan is wholly irrelevant- the reason it fetched 280k is because people are still willing to attach an irrational monetary value on property in particular areas- values that have no grounding in any reasonable measure of value in current use globally......

Note- using accepted measures of value, the Economist reckons our property is still ~50% over valued.........

We've had another .25% interest rate rise today- bringing rates to 1.5% and 'normalisation' of interest rates implies an additional 3% ontop of this.

Even if the country wasn't buggered- the cost of money alone would imply prices have only one way to go- South, and given the state of the economy- its only surprising that prices are only falling 1.1-1.5% month on month, and not a good deal faster.

Spiritofthekop · 07-07-2011 9:59pm

wyndham wrote: »

The 5 bed in Stillorgan only barely made reserve @ €280,000. Seems like value?

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000010&S=L&O=A

I had a look at it last week, its very big inside. Its good value for 280,000 for sure. I thought it would of sold for much more.

No sun in back yard/garden...but spend some money on fixing it up and its a great house.

excellent loaction.

washman3 · 07-07-2011 10:06pm

smccarrick wrote: »

Note- using accepted measures of value, the Economist reckons our property is still ~50% over valued.........

We've had another .25% interest rate rise today- bringing rates to 1.5% and 'normalisation' of interest rates implies an additional 3% ontop of this.

Even if the country wasn't buggered- the cost of money alone would imply prices have only one way to go- South, and given the state of the economy- its only surprising that prices are only falling 1.1-1.5% month on month, and not a good deal faster.

sounds like you know your stuff.!
was mentioned this evening that interest rates might go to 3.5 to 4%
would you agree?
do you think prices will drop another 20-30%

chicken fingers · 08-07-2011 12:06am

Most likely 30% or 40% more to go on average.
It really depends on how the country's economy holds up.
The gov also need to step up and cut RA by 30% as this is keeping an artificial floor on the entire market.
The buy to let crowd who are renting to rent allowance tenants will have to lose their homes, it will be hard but the market MUST normalise and adjust and that is just impossible as it stands.
When rents go down, then we will see some actual value in firesales.

missmyler · 08-07-2011 3:02am

Anyone know why the handling of these auctions went to a UK company and not an Irish one when they first started off?

The_Conductor · 08-07-2011 3:06am

missmyler wrote: »

Anyone know why the handling of these auctions went to a UK company and not an Irish one when they first started off?

The auctions weren't given to Allsop (or anyone else)- Allsop are a private entity who decided of their own accord to hold auctions, advertised such seeking customers, and on the basis of their perceived expertise, were allocated property by various lenders (Start etc)- and now on the basis of the success of their first auction, are perceived by those disposing of property as the route to go, if they actually want to sell. Having hard rules regarding minimum asking prices etc, which sellers have to subscribe to- helps to ensure the success of the auction- and in turn has created a success story.

The_Conductor · 08-07-2011 3:09am

washman3 wrote: »

sounds like you know your stuff.!
was mentioned this evening that interest rates might go to 3.5 to 4%
would you agree?
do you think prices will drop another 20-30%

The ECB (Wim Duisberg) have publicly stated that 'normalisation of interest rates implies a rate of 4 to 4.5%'
Whether or not the peak at these levels- or how long it takes them to reach these levels, is a bit like asking how long is a piece of string. It all depends on external factors- while the primary concern of the ECB is to fight inflation- they have shown themselves to be moderately open to political pressure/interference......

Do I think Irish prices will drop another 20-30%, sure I do. However bad things are now- things are only going to get a whole lot worse- there is another 4.5 billion to be siphoned off by the government in December's budget, and by their own admission most of the low lying fruit has already been picked. We are in for a torrid time- we ain't seen nothing yet, as the song goes. So- severely limited lending, on top of a contracting economy, and unemployment rates that look to stay stubbornly at 13-14%- well, its not rocket science.....

Bicky · 08-07-2011 4:11am

Anyone any idea what the Dublin 1 pub was withdrawn at? Lot 36.

Mr. 2 · 08-07-2011 9:21am

Bicky wrote: »

Anyone any idea what the Dublin 1 pub was withdrawn at? Lot 36.

The bidding reached 10k under the reserve so I'm sure they did a deal after the auction.

antiskeptic · 08-07-2011 10:38am

smccarrick wrote: »

The ECB (Wim Duisberg) have publicly stated that 'normalisation of interest rates implies a rate of 4 to 4.5%'
Whether or not the peak at these levels- or how long it takes them to reach these levels, is a bit like asking how long is a piece of string. It all depends on external factors- while the primary concern of the ECB is to fight inflation- they have shown themselves to be moderately open to political pressure/interference......

Do I think Irish prices will drop another 20-30%, sure I do. However bad things are now- things are only going to get a whole lot worse- there is another 4.5 billion to be siphoned off by the government in December's budget, and by their own admission most of the low lying fruit has already been picked. We are in for a torrid time- we ain't seen nothing yet, as the song goes. So- severely limited lending, on top of a contracting economy, and unemployment rates that look to stay stubbornly at 13-14%- well, its not rocket science.....

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev appears to take a more benign view..

One more slightly technical factor is important to the consideration of the future of the property markets here. Looking at historical monthly data from 2005 through present, continued declines in asking prices are now putting renewed pressure on rents, which remain out of sync with long-term relationship to asking prices.

Using a simple rule of thumb that at the long-term real interest rates of 3% (the scenario toward which we are heading with ECB policies), the ratio of household income to purchase price should be around 2.8:1, the 3 year horizon average property prices projections based on per capita income in Ireland is in the region of €156,000. That is about 13.4% below today's average asking prices, allowing for a 5% sales discount currently - or 57% below the peak.

In other words, the vicious cycle of low yields and collapsing capital gains still has some room to run before Irish property markets can see a sustained stabilisation.

http://www.daft.ie/report/

Without even getting into details I can't see how this could be so. The downward slope of housing price decline is so steep you'd need something dramatic (like sudden, large-scale MNC inward investment or a total writedown of our debt) to wrench it out of it's nosedive.

Newtons 2nd Law applies: "Objects in motion (house price rate of decline) continues in that direction and at speed unless acted upon by an external force"

I'm trying to see where those external forces will come from (a handful of cash buyers with money burning a hole in their pocket at Allsop auctions notwithstanding) but can't figure it out.

The_Conductor · 08-07-2011 10:57am

I have fundamental issues with Dr. Gurdgiev's figures.
First off- the ECB themselves consider an interest rate of 4 to 4.5% to be 'normalisation' of interest rates. How long it'll take them to get there is open to debate- most commentators reckon it could be 3-4 years, depending on what happens with the global economy (which appears to be spluttering).

I don't understand how he can consider 2005 to present- to represent 'historical' data- we were in a sodding bubble from 1997 or so onwards- his dataset is skewed.......

His figures are assuming an average per capita income of around 57k- another figure that seems as though its randomly pulled out of thin air......

We have 300k vacant properties nationwide, and allegedly over 20k vacant apartments (not houses) in Dublin alone- where are we going to offload these? Net migration is outward again- and while we are undergoing a baby boom- it'll be 20-25 years before any of the tots are in a position to seek their own places.......

We are sucking out another 4.5 billion from the economy in December, have an unemployment rate pretty constant around 14%, interest rates that are increasing, an effective mortgage default rate of just under 12% (incl. those who have come to arrangements with their lenders) etc..... Any comments about a recovery are wishful thinking in the extreme. He is quite right about rental levels being out of kilter though- they are being artificially supported by the state via the RA and RS schemes (though its proposed to chop this too come December).

While hes not implicitly saying so- I genuinely think that Dr. Gurdgiev's assessment is, despite his comments, overly rosy and divorced from reality.

antiskeptic · 08-07-2011 11:42am

smccarrick wrote: »

I have fundamental issues with Dr. Gurdgiev's figures.

First off- the ECB themselves consider an interest rate of 4 to 4.5% to be 'normalisation' of interest rates. How long it'll take them to get there is open to debate- most commentators reckon it could be 3-4 years, depending on what happens with the global economy (which appears to be spluttering).

I don't understand how he can consider 2005 to present- to represent 'historical' data- we were in a sodding bubble from 1997 or so onwards- his dataset is skewed.......

His figures are assuming an average per capita income of around 57k- another figure that seems as though its randomly pulled out of thin air......

We have 300k vacant properties nationwide, and allegedly over 20k vacant apartments (not houses) in Dublin alone- where are we going to offload these? Net migration is outward again- and while we are undergoing a baby boom- it'll be 20-25 years before any of the tots are in a position to seek their own places.......

We are sucking out another 4.5 billion from the economy in December, have an unemployment rate pretty constant around 14%, interest rates that are increasing, an effective mortgage default rate of just under 12% (incl. those who have come to arrangements with their lenders) etc..... Any comments about a recovery are wishful thinking in the extreme. He is quite right about rental levels being out of kilter though- they are being artificially supported by the state via the RA and RS schemes (though its proposed to chop this too come December).

While hes not implicitly saying so- I genuinely think that Dr. Gurdgiev's assessment is, despite his comments, overly rosy and divorced from reality.

What possible reason(s) could he have not to include such factors into his thinking? He appears to set his predictions of house price deflation on a single influencing factor (annual household income as a fraction of house price)

SMC wrote:

His figures are assuming an average per capita income of around 57k- another figure that seems as though its randomly pulled out of thin air......

The language used is confusing. I'm taking that figure to refer to average household income.

"Using a simple rule of thumb that at the long-term real interest rates of 3% (the scenario toward which we are heading with ECB policies), the ratio of household income to purchase price should be around 2.8:1, the 3 year horizon average property prices projections based on per capita income in Ireland is in the region of €156,000. That is about 13.4% below today's average asking prices, allowing for a 5% sales discount currently - or 57% below the peak."

Quite how you figure there is but 13.4% to go before bottom - when in the same breath you've said that;

Nationwide, asking prices are down 5% in three months through June 2011 - the steepest quarterly decline in 18 months.

..is beyond me. It's like saying you can pull the plane out of that near vertical dive with only a 100ft to go between you and the ground.

irishh_bob · 08-07-2011 12:08pm

smccarrick wrote: »

The ECB (Wim Duisberg) have publicly stated that 'normalisation of interest rates implies a rate of 4 to 4.5%'
Whether or not the peak at these levels- or how long it takes them to reach these levels, is a bit like asking how long is a piece of string. It all depends on external factors- while the primary concern of the ECB is to fight inflation- they have shown themselves to be moderately open to political pressure/interference......

Do I think Irish prices will drop another 20-30%, sure I do. However bad things are now- things are only going to get a whole lot worse- there is another 4.5 billion to be siphoned off by the government in December's budget, and by their own admission most of the low lying fruit has already been picked. We are in for a torrid time- we ain't seen nothing yet, as the song goes. So- severely limited lending, on top of a contracting economy, and unemployment rates that look to stay stubbornly at 13-14%- well, its not rocket science.....

where do you see farm land prices , many believe farm land is bucking the trend and according to the farmers journal yesterday , its on the way back up

The_Conductor · 08-07-2011 12:12pm

Bicky wrote: »

Anyone any idea what the Dublin 1 pub was withdrawn at? Lot 36.

It was withdrawn @ 475k with a minimum reserve of 485k

antiskeptic · 08-07-2011 12:20pm

irishh_bob wrote: »

where do you see farm land prices , many believe farm land is bucking the trend and according to the farmers journal yesterday , its on the way back up

Did farmland undergo boomtime increases too (aside from farmland that could be potentially rezoned into building land)?

I'd imagine the factors influencing that sector are markedly different than those controlling building land

The_Conductor · 08-07-2011 12:39pm

irishh_bob wrote: »

where do you see farm land prices , many believe farm land is bucking the trend and according to the farmers journal yesterday , its on the way back up

Bob- there are a different set of fundamentals at play with farm land prices- however I would have serious doubts that farm land prices are stable, never mind on the way up.

The big issue with farm land prices- is the lack of transactions hitting the open market- and similar to the residential market- severe issues in accessing credit for potential buyers (though its argued that there is a cadre of potential buyers out there who are cash buyers)........

The SFP is underpinning farm prices at the moment- however the uncertain nature of a number of the schemes, along with problems accessing the latter REPS schemes for former participants- and the proposed broadening of the SACs- are limiting factors, totally ignoring the issues with credit etc.

Farming certainly is undergoing a rejuvenation at the moment- the numbers enrolled in the remaining agricultural colleges, and doing the Teagasc online courses- are at 15 year highs. The Farmer's Journal are leveraging information like this to suggest that farming is somehow immune from the downturn- when the likely explanation is more that over the past 20 years there were ample opportunities for the children of farmers to make a living independent of farming- and those opportunities are now a lot harder to come by- so there are a cadre of young farmers out there trying to make a go of things, where previously they'd have fecked off to Dublin or elsewhere, a large majority of them working in construction.

There is a degree of demand from these young farmers for land- however many of them are suggesting that opportunities are more abundant in the UK or elsewhere than here (have a look at the British Farming Forum).

At the end of the day- land prices have to reflect their income generating potential. The SFP has decoupled production from subsidies- and in a rational market- someone should be able to look at a land type, do a back of the envelope calculation of what they can earn farming the land, and thus what its worth to them........ We're not rational creatures though- and the attachment to farmland has historic links to our dispossession by landlords of bygone years.

Is farmland increasing in price? Only so far as farmers or potential farmers have access to credit- which is diminishing....... It doesn't matter what the inherent demand is- if people don't have cold hard cash to backup their wish to acquire land- and akin to the residential market, this is the limiting factor at present (though there is always going to be an inherent value associated with farmland, that being its income generating potential- which does not exist with residential property).

irishh_bob · 08-07-2011 12:39pm

antiskeptic wrote: »

Did farmland undergo boomtime increases too (aside from farmland that could be potentially rezoned into building land)?

I'd imagine the factors influencing that sector are markedly different than those controlling building land

the rise in farmland prices during the boom dwarfed every other sector , land could be bought in 1996 for around 2000 pound per acre , in 2007 , it was costing nearly 20 k ( euro ) per acre , im talking about farmland , not land for development

irishh_bob · 08-07-2011 12:44pm

smccarrick wrote: »

Bob- there are a different set of fundamentals at play with farm land prices- however I would have serious doubts that farm land prices are stable, never mind on the way up.

The big issue with farm land prices- is the lack of transactions hitting the open market- and similar to the residential market- severe issues in accessing credit for potential buyers (though its argued that there is a cadre of potential buyers out there who are cash buyers)........

The SFP is underpinning farm prices at the moment- however the uncertain nature of a number of the schemes, along with problems accessing the latter REPS schemes for former participants- and the proposed broadening of the SACs- are limiting factors, totally ignoring the issues with credit etc.

Farming certainly is undergoing a rejuvenation at the moment- the numbers enrolled in the remaining agricultural colleges, and doing the Teagasc online courses- are at 15 year highs. The Farmer's Journal are leveraging information like this to suggest that farming is somehow immune from the downturn- when the likely explanation is more that over the past 20 years there were ample opportunities for the children of farmers to make a living independent of farming- and those opportunities are now a lot harder to come by- so there are a cadre of young farmers out there trying to make a go of things, where previously they'd have fecked off to Dublin or elsewhere, a large majority of them working in construction.

There is a degree of demand from these young farmers for land- however many of them are suggesting that opportunities are more abundant in the UK or elsewhere than here (have a look at the British Farming Forum).

At the end of the day- land prices have to reflect their income generating potential. The SFP has decoupled production from subsidies- and in a rational market- someone should be able to look at a land type, do a back of the envelope calculation of what they can earn farming the land, and thus what its worth to them........ We're not rational creatures though- and the attachment to farmland has historic links to our dispossession by landlords of bygone years.

Is farmland increasing in price? Only so far as farmers or potential farmers have access to credit- which is diminishing....... It doesn't matter what the inherent demand is- if people don't have cold hard cash to backup their wish to acquire land- and akin to the residential market, this is the limiting factor at present (though there is always going to be an inherent value associated with farmland, that being its income generating potential- which does not exist with residential property).

thanks for the quick reply

i myself am not at all convinced that farmland prices are on the way back up , i spoke to an auctioneer quite recently and he put it simply , the banks have put up a wall , they are simply not lending and thier is nothing to suggest the banks will loosen the purse strings in the short term , as for your point about the uk , land in the uk is on a par with ireland now , anyone who sold farm land in ireland in 2007 could have bought three acres for every one acre sold here , land in the uk has shot up in the past number of years where as land here has more than halved

derealbadger · 08-07-2011 12:59pm

i know that a farm of 58 acres sold last week good land in east Galway for € 430k which equates to €7.41 k per acre

Dymo · 08-07-2011 1:25pm

antiskeptic wrote: »

Did farmland undergo boomtime increases too (aside from farmland that could be potentially rezoned into building land)?

I'd imagine the factors influencing that sector are markedly different than those controlling building land

Farm incomes will be up 30% on 2 years ago this year, so more money in the marketplace for farmers to buy land, as land is a commodity product to farmers.

irishh_bob · 08-07-2011 1:43pm

derealbadger wrote: »

i know that a farm of 58 acres sold last week good land in east Galway for € 430k which equates to €7.41 k per acre

sounds about right , farmland in galway falls somewhere in the middle in terms of price range throughout the country

jmayo · 08-07-2011 3:01pm

antiskeptic wrote: »

Did farmland undergo boomtime increases too (aside from farmland that could be potentially rezoned into building land)?

I'd imagine the factors influencing that sector are markedly different than those controlling building land

Oh by God it did, especially in areas around Dublin where there was a knock on affect from the property bubble.
Land with possible development prospects near towns and villages rocketed.
You had the non farmers (solicitors, auctioneers, EAs, builders, developers, etc) deciding they wanted to play lord and lady muck and they decided they would buy few acres with big house or build a big house with required stables.
A lot of that bunch have fallen on harder times and the half built mansion sitting on the few acres with stables out back are now for sale.

Farmers all over the country who had sold sites, development land or land for new roads were flush with cash and either reinvested it in land elsewhere or sometimes just bought bank shares.
Other farmers suddenly had access to greater credit and could now afford to try and expand.
The price of pure farm land got to a stage where you would need to be farming it for generations for it to make a return commensurate with it's cost.

smccarrick wrote: »

Bob- there are a different set of fundamentals at play with farm land prices- however I would have serious doubts that farm land prices are stable, never mind on the way up.

The SFP is underpinning farm prices at the moment- however the uncertain nature of a number of the schemes, along with problems accessing the latter REPS schemes for former participants- and the proposed broadening of the SACs- are limiting factors, totally ignoring the issues with credit etc.

Not to mention what the end of CAP, milk quotas, etc.

smccarrick wrote: »

Farming certainly is undergoing a rejuvenation at the moment- the numbers enrolled in the remaining agricultural colleges, and doing the Teagasc online courses- are at 15 year highs.

This is because of the amount of unemployed sons that a number of years ago had been involved in construction, be it as labourers, tradesmen or just driving one of the farms tractors working on sites.
Then the daughters were finding work in retail.
That has all dried up.

smccarrick wrote: »

The Farmer's Journal are leveraging information like this to suggest that farming is somehow immune from the downturn- when the likely explanation is more that over the past 20 years there were ample opportunities for the children of farmers to make a living independent of farming- and those opportunities are now a lot harder to come by- so there are a cadre of young farmers out there trying to make a go of things, where previously they'd have fecked off to Dublin or elsewhere, a large majority of them working in construction.

Exactly.

smccarrick wrote: »

There is a degree of demand from these young farmers for land- however many of them are suggesting that opportunities are more abundant in the UK or elsewhere than here (have a look at the British Farming Forum).

At the end of the day- land prices have to reflect their income generating potential.

They didn't back in the 70s or during the construction bubble.
In fact when foreign farmers viewed our landprices they were agog.

smccarrick wrote: »

Is farmland increasing in price? Only so far as farmers or potential farmers have access to credit- which is diminishing....... It doesn't matter what the inherent demand is- if people don't have cold hard cash to backup their wish to acquire land- and akin to the residential market, this is the limiting factor at present (though there is always going to be an inherent value associated with farmland, that being its income generating potential- which does not exist with residential property).

The thing about land is that we have a very very limited supply in this country, so when land becomes available neighbouring farmers move haeven and earth to try and buy it.
They even ignore sane valuations.
Think of "The Field".

I think our land changes hands on average ever 100 odd years whereas in other countries it is much more frequent.

irishh_bob wrote: »

the rise in farmland prices during the boom dwarfed every other sector , land could be bought in 1996 for around 2000 pound per acre , in 2007 , it was costing nearly 20 k ( euro ) per acre , im talking about farmland , not land for development

In Kildare, Wicklow, Meath, Dublin and Louth it was often 30,000.

jmayo · 08-07-2011 3:03pm

derealbadger wrote: »

i know that a farm of 58 acres sold last week good land in east Galway for € 430k which equates to €7.41 k per acre

Did that nice farm in Portumna ever sell ?

Dymo wrote: »

Farm incomes will be up 30% on 2 years ago this year, so more money in the marketplace for farmers to buy land, as land is a commodity product to farmers.

You do know they were starting from very low base ?

derealbadger · 08-07-2011 6:37pm

jmayo wrote: »

Did that nice farm in Portumna ever sell ?

You do know they were starting from very low base ?

this farm would be quite close to portumna its kiltormer/clontuskert area

ei.sdraob · 09-07-2011 1:10pm

Reserve 50K

Sale Price 177K

madness, madness I tell ya, especially considering that less than 2KM down road one can get this larger apt for less and not have to spend a small fortune on renovations and insulation

The_Conductor · 09-07-2011 1:28pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Reserve 50K

Sale Price 177K

madness, madness I tell ya, especially considering that less than 2KM down road one can get this larger apt for less and not have to spend a small fortune on renovations and insulation

The second one is a leasehold apartment, with current management fees of 2k per annum....... The first is a freehold house. Admittedly the first needs considerable work- however you're not comparing like with like.......

amdublin · 09-07-2011 1:41pm

smccarrick wrote: »

The second one is a leasehold apartment, with current management fees of 2k per annum....... The first is a freehold house. Admittedly the first needs considerable work- however you're not comparing like with like.......

And that second yoke is a vile monstrosity

Bigger is not always better.

The_Conductor · 09-07-2011 2:05pm

amdublin wrote: »

And that second yoke is a vile monstrosity .

ei.sdraob · 09-07-2011 2:14pm

smccarrick wrote: »

The second one is a leasehold apartment, with current management fees of 2k per annum....... The first is a freehold house. Admittedly the first needs considerable work- however you're not comparing like with like.......

Sorry you right, i linked to wrong one there are a few of them for sale at around that price.
I am talking from the point of view of renting (after renting previously in same area) B would bring in more rental while A is tiny and run down. I wouldn't buy either as PPR.

To pay 177K for a over-glorified shed with little prospect (ha no pun intended

re Prospect Hill) of making your money back via renting (i presume that was the reason this was bought) in this day and age is the height madness (unless whoever bought it is laundering money....), maybe 70K due to location but no more, the "house" needs at least another 50-100K just to make it livable

edit:

* rental around prospect hill for that sized home is around €600 a month @ 177K that's 24 and a half years
* rental for 4beds for B is around €1100 @ 160K thats 11 years

Which of these is closer to the rent*12*14 formula often used around this forum for discussing sale prices in relation to rent.

Allsop Auction

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